A scatterometer neural network sensor model with input noise

The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.

A scatterometer neural network sensor model with input noise

The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.

Simultaneous estimation of global background synaptic inhibition and excitation from membrane potential fluctuations in layer III neurons of the rat entorhinal cortex in vitro

It is becoming clear that the detection and integration of synaptic input and its conversion into an output signal in cortical neurons are strongly influenced by background synaptic activity or "noise." The majority of this noise results from the spontaneous release of synaptic transmitters, interacting with ligand-gated ion channels in the postsynaptic neuron [Berretta N, Jones RSG (1996); A comparison of spontaneous synaptic EPSCs in layer V and layer II neurones in the rat entorhinal cortex in vitro. J Neurophysiol 76:1089-1110; Jones RSG, Woodhall GL (2005) Background synaptic activity in rat entorhinal cortical neurons: differential control of transmitter release by presynaptic receptors. J Physiol 562:107-120; LoTurco JJ, Mody I, Kriegstein AR (1990) Differential activation of glutamate receptors by spontaneously released transmitter in slices of neocortex. Neurosci Lett 114:265-271; Otis TS, Staley KJ, Mody I (1991) Perpetual inhibitory activity in mammalian brain slices generated by spontaneous GABA release. Brain Res 545:142-150; Ropert N, Miles R, Korn H (1990) Characteristics of miniature inhibitory postsynaptic currents in CA1 pyramidal neurones of rat hippocampus. J Physiol 428:707-722; Salin PA, Prince DA (1996) Spontaneous GABAA receptor-mediated inhibitory currents in adult rat somatosensory cortex. J Neurophysiol 75:1573-1588; Staley KJ (1999) Quantal GABA release: noise or not? Nat Neurosci 2:494-495; Woodhall GL, Bailey SJ, Thompson SE, Evans DIP, Stacey AE, Jones RSG (2005) Fundamental differences in spontaneous synaptic inhibition between deep and superficial layers of the rat entorhinal cortex. Hippocampus 15:232-245]. The function of synaptic noise has been the subject of debate for some years, but there is increasing evidence that it modifies or controls neuronal excitability and, thus, the integrative properties of cortical neurons. In the present study we have investigated a novel approach [Rudolph M, Piwkowska Z, Badoual M, Bal T, Destexhe A (2004) A method to estimate synaptic conductances from membrane potential fluctuations. J Neurophysiol 91:2884-2896] to simultaneously quantify synaptic inhibitory and excitatory synaptic noise, together with postsynaptic excitability, in rat entorhinal cortical neurons in vitro. The results suggest that this is a viable and useful approach to the study of the function of synaptic noise in cortical networks. © 2007 IBRO.

Estimation of TFP growth:a semiparametric smooth coefficient approach

This article uses a semiparametric smooth coefficient model (SPSCM) to estimate TFP growth and its components (scale and technical change). The SPSCM is derived from a nonparametric specification of the production technology represented by an input distance function (IDF), using a growth formulation. The functional coefficients of the SPSCM come naturally from the model and are fully flexible in the sense that no functional form of the underlying production technology is used to derive them. Another advantage of the SPSCM is that it can estimate bias (input and scale) in technical change in a fully flexible manner. We also used a translog IDF framework to estimate TFP growth components. A panel of U.S. electricity generating plants for the period 1986–1998 is used for this purpose. Comparing estimated TFP growth results from both parametric and semiparametric models against the Divisia TFP growth, we conclude that the SPSCM performs the best in tracking the temporal behavior of TFP growth.

Optimal design for correlated processes with input-dependent noise

Optimal design for parameter estimation in Gaussian process regression models with input-dependent noise is examined. The motivation stems from the area of computer experiments, where computationally demanding simulators are approximated using Gaussian process emulators to act as statistical surrogates. In the case of stochastic simulators, which produce a random output for a given set of model inputs, repeated evaluations are useful, supporting the use of replicate observations in the experimental design. The findings are also applicable to the wider context of experimental design for Gaussian process regression and kriging. Designs are proposed with the aim of minimising the variance of the Gaussian process parameter estimates. A heteroscedastic Gaussian process model is presented which allows for an experimental design technique based on an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic models. It is empirically shown that the error of the approximation of the parameter variance by the inverse of the Fisher information is reduced as the number of replicated points is increased. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic data and a systems biology stochastic simulator, optimal designs with replicate observations are shown to outperform space-filling designs both with and without replicate observations. Guidance is provided on best practice for optimal experimental design for stochastic response models. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance Comparison of MATLAB and Neuro Solution Software on Estimation of Fuel Economy by Using Artificial Neural Network

In the world, scientific studies increase day by day and computer programs facilitate the human’s life. Scientists examine the human’s brain’s neural structure and they try to be model in the computer and they give the name of artificial neural network. For this reason, they think to develop more complex problem’s solution. The purpose of this study is to estimate fuel economy of an automobile engine by using artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm. Engine characteristics were simulated by using “Neuro Solution” software. The same data is used in MATLAB to compare the performance of MATLAB is such a problem and show its validity. The cylinder, displacement, power, weight, acceleration and vehicle production year are used as input data and miles per gallon (MPG) are used as target data. An Artificial Neural Network model was developed and 70% of data were used as training data, 15% of data were used as testing data and 15% of data is used as validation data. In creating our model, proper neuron number is carefully selected to increase the speed of the network. Since the problem has a nonlinear structure, multi layer are used in our model.

Pulse width modulation (PWM) method for power components estimation in power meters

The scope of this paper is to present the Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) based method for Active Power (AP) and Reactive Power (RP) measurements as can be applied in Power Meters. Necessarily, the main aim of the material presented is a twofold, first to present a realization methodology of the proposed algorithm, and second to verify the algorithm’s robustness and validity. The method takes advantage of the fact that frequencies present in a power line are of a specific fundamental frequency range (a range centred on the 50 Hz or 60 Hz) and that in case of the presence of harmonics the frequencies of those dominating in the power line spectrum can be specified on the basis of the fundamental. In contrast to a number of existing methods a time delay or shifting of the input signal is not required by the method presented and the time delay by n/2 of the Current signal with respect to the Voltage signal required by many of the existing measurement techniques, does not apply in the case of the PWM method as well.

Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

An improved framework for dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation

This dissertation aims to improve the performance of existing assignment-based dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation models to successfully apply Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) strategies for the purposes of traffic congestion relief and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) in transportation network modeling. The methodology framework has two advantages over the existing assignment-based dynamic O-D matrix estimation models. First, it combines an initial O-D estimation model into the estimation process to provide a high confidence level of initial input for the dynamic O-D estimation model, which has the potential to improve the final estimation results and reduce the associated computation time. Second, the proposed methodology framework can automatically convert traffic volume deviation to traffic density deviation in the objective function under congested traffic conditions. Traffic density is a better indicator for traffic demand than traffic volume under congested traffic condition, thus the conversion can contribute to improving the estimation performance. The proposed method indicates a better performance than a typical assignment-based estimation model (Zhou et al., 2003) in several case studies. In the case study for I-95 in Miami-Dade County, Florida, the proposed method produces a good result in seven iterations, with a root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) of 0.010 for traffic volume and a RMSPE of 0.283 for speed. In contrast, Zhou's model requires 50 iterations to obtain a RMSPE of 0.023 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.285 for speed. In the case study for Jacksonville, Florida, the proposed method reaches a convergent solution in 16 iterations with a RMSPE of 0.045 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.110 for speed, while Zhou's model needs 10 iterations to obtain the best solution, with a RMSPE of 0.168 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.179 for speed. The successful application of the proposed methodology framework to real road networks demonstrates its ability to provide results both with satisfactory accuracy and within a reasonable time, thus establishing its potential usefulness to support dynamic traffic assignment modeling, ITS systems, and other strategies.

Improved Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) estimation for local roads using parcel-level travel demand modeling

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is a critical input to many transportation analyses. By definition, AADT is the average 24-hour volume at a highway location over a full year. Traditionally, AADT is estimated using a mix of permanent and temporary traffic counts. Because field collection of traffic counts is expensive, it is usually done for only the major roads, thus leaving most of the local roads without any AADT information. However, AADTs are needed for local roads for many applications. For example, AADTs are used by state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) to calculate the crash rates of all local roads in order to identify the top five percent of hazardous locations for annual reporting to the U.S. DOT. ^ This dissertation develops a new method for estimating AADTs for local roads using travel demand modeling. A major component of the new method involves a parcel-level trip generation model that estimates the trips generated by each parcel. The model uses the tax parcel data together with the trip generation rates and equations provided by the ITE Trip Generation Report. The generated trips are then distributed to existing traffic count sites using a parcel-level trip distribution gravity model. The all-or-nothing assignment method is then used to assign the trips onto the roadway network to estimate the final AADTs. The entire process was implemented in the Cube demand modeling system with extensive spatial data processing using ArcGIS. ^ To evaluate the performance of the new method, data from several study areas in Broward County in Florida were used. The estimated AADTs were compared with those from two existing methods using actual traffic counts as the ground truths. The results show that the new method performs better than both existing methods. One limitation with the new method is that it relies on Cube which limits the number of zones to 32,000. Accordingly, a study area exceeding this limit must be partitioned into smaller areas. Because AADT estimates for roads near the boundary areas were found to be less accurate, further research could examine the best way to partition a study area to minimize the impact.^

Distributed Extremum-Seeking Control with Applications to High-Altitude Balloons

The real-time optimization of large-scale systems is a difficult problem due to the need for complex models involving uncertain parameters and the high computational cost of solving such problems by a decentralized approach. Extremum-seeking control (ESC) is a model-free real-time optimization technique which can estimate unknown parameters and can optimize nonlinear time-varying systems using only a measurement of the cost function to be minimized. In this thesis, we develop a distributed version of extremum-seeking control which allows large-scale systems to be optimized without models and with minimal computing power. First, we develop a continuous-time distributed extremum-seeking controller. It has three main components: consensus, parameter estimation, and optimization. The consensus provides each local controller with an estimate of the cost to be minimized, allowing them to coordinate their actions. Using this cost estimate, parameters for a local input-output model are estimated, and the cost is minimized by following a gradient descent based on the estimate of the gradient. Next, a similar distributed extremum-seeking controller is developed in discrete-time. Finally, we consider an interesting application of distributed ESC: formation control of high-altitude balloons for high-speed wireless internet. These balloons must be steered into a favourable formation where they are spread out over the Earth and provide coverage to the entire planet. Distributed ESC is applied to this problem, and is shown to be effective for a system of 1200 ballons subjected to realistic wind currents. The approach does not require a wind model and uses a cost function based on a Voronoi partition of the sphere. Distributed ESC is able to steer balloons from a few initial launch sites into a formation which provides coverage to the entire Earth and can maintain a similar formation as the balloons move with the wind around the Earth.

A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Generic wind estimation and compensation based on residual generators and higher-order sliding mode schemes

This master thesis proposes a solution to the approach problem in case of unknown severe microburst wind shear for a fixed-wing aircraft, accounting for both longitudinal and lateral dynamics. The adaptive controller design for wind rejection is also addressed, exploiting the wind estimation provided by suitable estimators. It is able to successfully complete the final approach phase even in presence of wind shear, and at the same time aerodynamic envelope protection is retained. The adaptive controller for wind compensation has been designed by a backstepping approach and feedback linearization for time-varying systems. The wind shear components have been estimated by higher-order sliding mode schemes. At the end of this work the results are provided, an autonomous final approach in presence of microburst is discussed, performances are analyzed, and estimation of the microburst characteristics from telemetry data is examined.

CONCURRENT LOCALIZATION AND MAPPING WITH SONAR SENSORS AND CONSIDERATION OF VEHICLE MOTION

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) is a procedure used to determine the location of a mobile vehicle in an unknown environment, while constructing a map of the unknown environment at the same time. Mobile platforms, which make use of SLAM algorithms, have industrial applications in autonomous maintenance, such as the inspection of flaws and defects in oil pipelines and storage tanks. A typical SLAM consists of four main components, namely, experimental setup (data gathering), vehicle pose estimation, feature extraction, and filtering. Feature extraction is the process of realizing significant features from the unknown environment such as corners, edges, walls, and interior features. In this work, an original feature extraction algorithm specific to distance measurements obtained through SONAR sensor data is presented. This algorithm has been constructed by combining the SONAR Salient Feature Extraction Algorithm and the Triangulation Hough Based Fusion with point-in-polygon detection. The reconstructed maps obtained through simulations and experimental data with the fusion algorithm are compared to the maps obtained with existing feature extraction algorithms. Based on the results obtained, it is suggested that the proposed algorithm can be employed as an option for data obtained from SONAR sensors in environment, where other forms of sensing are not viable. The algorithm fusion for feature extraction requires the vehicle pose estimation as an input, which is obtained from a vehicle pose estimation model. For the vehicle pose estimation, the author uses sensor integration to estimate the pose of the mobile vehicle. Different combinations of these sensors are studied (e.g., encoder, gyroscope, or encoder and gyroscope). The different sensor fusion techniques for the pose estimation are experimentally studied and compared. The vehicle pose estimation model, which produces the least amount of error, is used to generate inputs for the feature extraction algorithm fusion. In the experimental studies, two different environmental configurations are used, one without interior features and another one with two interior features. Numerical and experimental findings are discussed. Finally, the SLAM algorithm is implemented along with the algorithms for feature extraction and vehicle pose estimation. Three different cases are experimentally studied, with the floor of the environment intentionally altered to induce slipping. Results obtained for implementations with and without SLAM are compared and discussed. The present work represents a step towards the realization of autonomous inspection platforms for performing concurrent localization and mapping in harsh environments.