International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.

The Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Multi-Sector Economy

This paper constructs and estimates a sticky-price, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with heterogenous production sectors. Sectors differ in price stickiness, capital-adjustment costs and production technology, and use output from each other as material and investment inputs following an Input-Output Matrix and Capital Flow Table that represent the U.S. economy. By relaxing the standard assumption of symmetry, this model allows different sectoral dynamics in response to monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated by Simulated Method of Moments using sectoral and aggregate U.S. time series. Results indicate 1) substantial heterogeneity in price stickiness across sectors, with quantitatively larger differences between services and goods than previously found in micro studies that focus on final goods alone, 2) a strong sensitivity to monetary policy shocks on the part of construction and durable manufacturing, and 3) similar quantitative predictions at the aggregate level by the multi-sector model and a standard model that assumes symmetry across sectors.

Design and Development of data mining models for the predictions of manpower placement in the technical Domain

Data mining is one of the hottest research areas nowadays as it has got wide variety of applications in common man’s life to make the world a better place to live. It is all about finding interesting hidden patterns in a huge history data base. As an example, from a sales data base, one can find an interesting pattern like “people who buy magazines tend to buy news papers also” using data mining. Now in the sales point of view the advantage is that one can place these things together in the shop to increase sales. In this research work, data mining is effectively applied to a domain called placement chance prediction, since taking wise career decision is so crucial for anybody for sure. In India technical manpower analysis is carried out by an organization named National Technical Manpower Information System (NTMIS), established in 1983-84 by India's Ministry of Education & Culture. The NTMIS comprises of a lead centre in the IAMR, New Delhi, and 21 nodal centres located at different parts of the country. The Kerala State Nodal Centre is located at Cochin University of Science and Technology. In Nodal Centre, they collect placement information by sending postal questionnaire to passed out students on a regular basis. From this raw data available in the nodal centre, a history data base was prepared. Each record in this data base includes entrance rank ranges, reservation, Sector, Sex, and a particular engineering. From each such combination of attributes from the history data base of student records, corresponding placement chances is computed and stored in the history data base. From this data, various popular data mining models are built and tested. These models can be used to predict the most suitable branch for a particular new student with one of the above combination of criteria. Also a detailed performance comparison of the various data mining models is done.This research work proposes to use a combination of data mining models namely a hybrid stacking ensemble for better predictions. A strategy to predict the overall absorption rate for various branches as well as the time it takes for all the students of a particular branch to get placed etc are also proposed. Finally, this research work puts forward a new data mining algorithm namely C 4.5 * stat for numeric data sets which has been proved to have competent accuracy over standard benchmarking data sets called UCI data sets. It also proposes an optimization strategy called parameter tuning to improve the standard C 4.5 algorithm. As a summary this research work passes through all four dimensions for a typical data mining research work, namely application to a domain, development of classifier models, optimization and ensemble methods.

Impact of Quality on Ethics and Social Responsibility in Marketing, in Industries in Kerala in the present Indian Scenario

The paper ‘Impact of Quality on Ethics and Social Responsibility in Marketing in Industries in Kerala in the present Indian scenario’ highlights the observations, based on a descriptive research carried out in five leading industries in Kerala, in the private and public sector. Ethics and social responsibilities, practiced in these industries, are reflected in the results of the survey conducted on specific queries like awareness of products/services provided by them, total understanding of the requirements of the customer, open discussion on technical matters, accountability of employees to the society and social needs, consumer ethics vis a vis business ethics etc. Team working goes a long way, in building relations, which in turn, results in a progressive and effective marketing strategy. This assumes paramount importance, considering the severe competition we are facing in the light of liberalization, privatization and globalization, which encompasses the globe. The prediction of India becoming a lead nation, along with USA, China and Japan, in this decade, can get fructified only if we follow a very high standards of ethics and social responsibility, in all domains including marketing. Organizations like TRW.Rane, Sundaram Fasteners, TVS Motors, in Chennai are a few among others in India, who have achieved the highest distinction in quality viz Deming Prize, and these demonstrate their commitment to quality, society and humanity at large. Cost effectiveness, without jeopardizing quality has become the need of the hour and MRTP has become history. This trait is being brought out through the survey and the results speak for themselves. Unethical practices like switch and bait, not only brings shame to the organization, and country but also results in the company getting wiped out from the market. Adherence to standards like ISO 14000 helps to maintain the minimum level of social responsibility and environmental friendliness. Like quality audit, safety audit etc, social audit is being insisted in all progressive countries to ensure that the organization comply with the minimum statutory requirements. The paper also touches upon Corporate Social Responsibility practiced in the industries and this becomes crystal clear through their commitment to improve the community. Green Marketing lays a lot of importance on the three Rs of environmentalism viz Reduce, Reuse and Recycle. The objective of any business is to achieve optimal profit and this is possible only by reducing the cost as well as waste. In this context, management tools like brainstorming, suggestion schemes, benchmarking etc becomes helpful. These characteristics are brought out through the analysis of survey results. The conclusions drawn throw a lot of information on the desirable practices with respect to Ethics and Social Responsibility in Marketing

Managerial Performance – An Analysis of Selected Antecedents and Mediators

The primary focus of this study was to asses the impact of selected antecedent variables namely Psychological Empowerment at Work (PEW), Psychological Contract Violation (PCV), Work Life Balance (WLB), Job Satisfaction (JS) and Affective Organisational Commitment (AOC) on Managerial Performance (MP) of middle level managers of private sector manufacturing and service sector organisations in Kerala.The study brings out the significance of Job Attitudes namely Job Satisfaction and Affective Organisational Commitment in meaningfully explaining the linkage between the rest of the antecedent variables in the study and Managerial Performance. The study interestingly revealed that Job Attitudes play a mediating role in explaining performance of managers unlike visualised in the initial conceptual framework. The study points to the importance of taking care of job attitudes in the work place to ensure performance of managers. The result of the study also brings out the significance of maintaining work-life balance especially in service sector organisations because it will have a direct impact on the level of performance of managers than most of the other contextual factors. Hence, it is the responsibility of HR department to initiate activities which are customised to the collective aspirations of the members of respective organisations to ensure positive job attitudes. HR departments should advice and convince the top management to provide resource support and endorsement to such initiatives.

From evolution to co-evolution – An empirical study of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics

In the past decades since Schumpeter’s influential writings economists have pursued research to examine the role of innovation in certain industries on firm as well as on industry level. Researchers describe innovations as the main trigger of industry dynamics, while policy makers argue that research and education are directly linked to economic growth and welfare. Thus, research and education are an important objective of public policy. Firms and public research are regarded as the main actors which are relevant for the creation of new knowledge. This knowledge is finally brought to the market through innovations. What is more, policy makers support innovations. Both actors, i.e. policy makers and researchers, agree that innovation plays a central role but researchers still neglect the role that public policy plays in the field of industrial dynamics. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to learn more about the interdependencies of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. The overarching research question of this dissertation asks whether it is possible to analyze patterns of industry evolution – from evolution to co-evolution – based on empirical studies of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. This work starts with a hypothesis-based investigation of traditional approaches of industrial dynamics. Namely, the testing of a basic assumption of the core models of industrial dynamics and the analysis of the evolutionary patterns – though with an industry which is driven by public policy as example. Subsequently it moves to a more explorative approach, investigating co-evolutionary processes. The underlying questions of the research include the following: Do large firms have an advantage because of their size which is attributable to cost spreading? Do firms that plan to grow have more innovations? What role does public policy play for the evolutionary patterns of an industry? Are the same evolutionary patterns observable as those described in the ILC theories? And is it possible to observe regional co-evolutionary processes of science, innovation and industry evolution? Based on two different empirical contexts – namely the laser and the photovoltaic industry – this dissertation tries to answer these questions and combines an evolutionary approach with a co-evolutionary approach. The first chapter starts with an introduction of the topic and the fields this dissertation is based on. The second chapter provides a new test of the Cohen and Klepper (1996) model of cost spreading, which explains the relationship between innovation, firm size and R&D, at the example of the photovoltaic industry in Germany. First, it is analyzed whether the cost spreading mechanism serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry. This is related to the assumption that the incentives to invest in R&D increase with the ex-ante output. Furthermore, it is investigated whether firms that plan to grow will have more innovative activities. The results indicate that cost spreading serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry and, furthermore, growth plans lead to higher amount of innovative activities. What is more, the role public policy plays for industry evolution is not finally analyzed in the field of industrial dynamics. In the case of Germany, the introduction of demand inducing policy instruments stimulated market and industry growth. While this policy immediately accelerated market volume, the effect on industry evolution is more ambiguous. Thus, chapter three analyzes this relationship by considering a model of industry evolution, where demand-inducing policies will be discussed as a possible trigger of development. The findings suggest that these instruments can take the same effect as a technical advance to foster the growth of an industry and its shakeout. The fourth chapter explores the regional co-evolution of firm population size, private-sector patenting and public research in the empirical context of German laser research and manufacturing over more than 40 years from the emergence of the industry to the mid-2000s. The qualitative as well as quantitative evidence is suggestive of a co-evolutionary process of mutual interdependence rather than a unidirectional effect of public research on private-sector activities. Chapter five concludes with a summary, the contribution of this work as well as the implications and an outlook of further possible research.

Estudio de medición de potencial exportador de la empresa de Calzado Manufactura Hortúa Leal (MHL)

Manufacturas Hortúa Leal (MHL) es una PYME familiar dedicada a la producción de calzado y artículos de cuero. Debido a la sobre oferta en el mercado colombiano, la empresa ha perdido clientes importantes y como consecuencia sus ganancias han disminuido considerablemente durante los últimos años. Para garantizar la perdurabilidad de la organización, la gerencia ha propuesto como alternativa la búsqueda de mercados extranjeros para exportar el calzado. El problema radica en la inexperiencia de la empresa en materia de exportación y en la incertidumbre del mercado al que se debe exportar. Este trabajo se enfoca en medir el potencial exportador de la empresa para determinar si está en condiciones de desarrollar un proceso de expansión y examinar a través de un filtro los países candidatos para exportar el calzado.

Estudio sistémico del sector estratégico dotación y seguridad industrial para la empresa Mas Dotaciones Ltda.

En el trabajo se realizó un acercamiento, lo más exhaustivo posible, del comportamiento del sector estratégico de dotación y seguridad industrial. Para dicha aproximación se elaboraron pruebas de tipo cuantitativo y cualitativo con el fin de determinar el nivel de imitación dentro del mismo evaluando las fuerzas del mercado que impactan al sector bajo el modelo de Porter. Adicionalmente se realizó un análisis estructural abordado desde la herramienta MICMAC para describir al sistema y visualizar las relaciones existentes entre los elementos claves logrando una representación de la dinámica entre la empresa Más Dotaciones Ltda., y su contexto estratégico.

Exportación de servicios del sector salud, software e ingeniería y construcción en colombia

El desarrollo del presente trabajo, tiene el objetivo de ilustrar el proceso de exportación de servicios en Colombia específicamente en el sector de Salud, Software y Construcción e Ingeniería, a través de tres casos de empresas de cada uno de los sectores. En primer lugar se analizó el sector servicios, su clasificación, características, normas y reglamentos, promoción y todo lo referente al proceso de exportación en Colombia especificando los tres sectores de estudio Salud, Software y Construcción e Ingeniería. La metodología aplicada fue la entrevista de una empresa de cada sector para analizar el proceso de internacionalización que se estaba aplicando en sus procesos o que necesitaban para iniciarlo. Se evidencio que los sectores de Salud, Software y Construcción e Ingeniería, se encuentran en crecimiento, no obstante no existe un proceso determinado y estructurado que permita asesorar e iniciar este proceso, analizando las fortalezas de las empresas que ya iniciar su proceso de exportación como determinado las características que deben tener las empresas que hasta ahora lo están iniciando. Finalmente, se propusieron recomendaciones para el fomento y la promoción de las exportaciones de servicios de estos tres sectores en pro del fortalecimiento de los procesos, como herramienta fundamental en internacionalización de una empresa del sector Salud, Software y Construcción e Ingeniería en Colombia.

Efectos en las ventas del sector automotor en Colombia frente a la aprobación del tratado de libre comercio con Estados Unidos

Esta investigación se realizó con el objetivo de conocer los efectos sobre las ventas del sector automotor en Colombia frente a la aprobación y puesta en marcha de Tratado de Libre Comercio con Estados Unidos, permitiendo brindar un panorama al sector y unas recomendaciones que le permitieran ser competitivo y no afectar considerablemente su nivel de ventas en general; Para ello, se analizaron únicamente los vehículos automotores para el transporte de pasajeros, que serán sin lugar a dudas los de mayor movimiento durante el TLC. Para ello, se contó principalmente con el diamante de competitividad propuesto por el catedrático Michael Porter para observar aquellos factores críticos dentro del sector que afectaban su competitividad y nivel de ventas, permitiendo así mismo hacer una comparación frente al sector automotor de Estados Unidos y conocer aquellos factores a trabajar por parte del sector en Colombia;, Contando con información ofrecida por parte de las autoridades del sector y asesores comerciales de las principales ensambladoras del País. Luego de ello, y con el ánimo de brindar recomendaciones al sector, tomando en cuenta los factores a mejorar, se hizo uso de la prospectiva estratégica y la herramienta MICMAC (Matriz de impacto cruzado) con el fin de conocer los factores clave que influirían tanto en el corto, mediano y largo plazo en el sector automotor de Colombia y en los cuales se debería trabajar para buscar efectos positivos en el sector y sus ventas; Palabras Clave: Vehículos, Competitividad, Ventas, Prospectiva Estratégica, TLC, Economía, Infraestructura, Tecnología, Inversión

Aporte a la toma de decisiones Del Instituto de Ortopedia Infantil Roosevelt a partir del análisis estructural del sector estratégico de hospitales universitarios

El concepto de hospitales universitarios ha ido evolucionando en el mundo, siendo cada vez más estricta la legislación que los regula y los mecanismos de evaluación para asegurar la calidad de la educación a los estudiantes que realizan prácticas en ambientes hospitalarios. El direccionamiento estratégico de los hospitales universitarios requiere en primer lugar de un análisis específico del sector, mediante pruebas como el análisis de hacinamiento, levantamiento del panorama competitivo, el análisis estructural de las fuerzas de mercado y un estudio de competidores que permitan el diagnóstico del sector estratégico. Por otro lado la realización de un modelo matricial aportará a la planificación estratégica mediante la integración del análisis cuantitativo y cualitativo. La presente investigación busca analizar el sector estratégico de hospitales universitarios y de manera particular la situación del Instituto de Ortopedia Infantil Roosevelt como integrante del sector. En primer lugar se realizó una investigación del concepto de hospitales universitarios en el tiempo, tanto a nivel nacional como internacional y de la legislación existente. Posteriormente se identificaron las instituciones que constituyen el sector estratégico y se realizó el análisis del medioambiente empresarial para la identificación de la situación real del sector y un análisis particular del área de educación e investigación del Instituto de Ortopedia Infantil Roosevelt, para construir las estrategias y el horizonte institucional.

El manejo del comportamiento del consumidor como variable clave para la perdurabilidad de mypimes del sector confección de Bogotá

A través de la documentación realizada acerca del Sector Confecciones y la investigación por medio del acercamiento a sus micro, pequeñas y medianas empresas (MIPYMES), hemos querido profundizar acerca de su rol dentro de la economía Colombiana, analizando la realidad empresarial de lo que ha sido el sector en los últimos años y ¿cómo estas empresas han implementado estrategias relacionadas con el comportamiento del consumidor? o ¿cómo han jugado al azar para perdurar dentro del mercado?

Labor's shares - aggregate and industry: accounting for both in a model of unbalanced growth with induced innovation

The relative stability of aggregate labor's share constitutes one of the great macroeconomic ratios. However, relative stability at the aggregate level masks the unbalanced nature of industry labor's shares – the Kuznets stylized facts underlie those of Kaldor. We present a two-sector – one labor-only and the other using both capital and labor – model of unbalanced economic development with induced innovation that can rationalize these phenomena as well as several other empirical regularities of actual economies. Specifically, the model features (i) one sector ("goods" production) becoming increasingly capital-intensive over time; (ii) an increasing relative price and share in total output of the labor-only sector ("services"); and (iii) diverging sectoral labor's shares despite (iii) an aggregate labor's share that converges from above to a value between 0 and unity. Furthermore, the model (iv) supports either a neoclassical steadystate or long-run endogenous growth, giving it the potential to account for a wide range of real world development experiences.

Natural disasters and clientelism: the case of floods and landslides in Colombia

What are the effects of natural disasters on electoral results? Some authors claim that catastrophes have a negative effect on the survival of leaders in a democracy because voters have a propensity to punish politicians for not preventing or poorly handling a crisis. In contrast, this paper finds that these events might be beneficial for leaders. Disasters are linked to leader survival through clientelism: they generate an in-flow of resources in the form of aid, which increase money for buying votes. Analyzing the rainy season of 2010-2011 in Colombia, considered its worst disaster in history, I use a difference-in-differences strategy to show that in the local election incumbent parties benefited from the disaster. The result is robust to different specifications and alternative explanations. Moreover, places receiving more aid and those with judicial evidence of vote-buying irregularities, are more likely to reelect the incumbent, supporting the mechanism proposed by this paper.

Stock return comovements and integration within the Latin American integrated market

Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.