How effective are policies to reduce gasoline consumption? evaluating a quasi-natural experiment in Spain

Using a panel of 48 provinces for four years we empirically analyze a series of temporary policies aimed at curbing fuel consumption implemented in Spain between March and June 2011. The first policy was a reduction in the speed limit in highways. The second policy was an increase in the biofuel content of fuels used in the transport sector. The third measure was a reduction of 5% in commuting and regional train fares that resulted in two major metropolitan areas reducing their overall fare for public transit. The results indicate that the speed limit reduction in highways reduced gasoline consumption by between 2% and 3%, while an increase in the biofuel content of gasoline increased this consumption. This last result is consistent with experimental evidence that indicates that mileage per liter falls with an increase in the biofuel content in gasolines. As for the reduction in transit fares, we do not find a significant effect for this policy. However, in specifications including the urban transit fare for the major cities in each province the estimated cross-price elasticity of the demand for gasoline -used as a proxy for car use- with respect to the price of transit is within the range reported in the literature. This is important since one of the main eficiency justification for subsidizing public transit rests on the positive value of this parameter and most of the estimates reported in the literature are quite dated.

Cryptic diversity among Western Palearctic tree frogs: postglacial range expansion, range limits, and secondary contacts of three European tree frog lineages (Hyla arborea group).

We characterize divergence times, intraspecific diversity and distributions for recently recognized lineages within the Hyla arborea species group, based on mitochondrial and nuclear sequences from 160 localities spanning its whole distribution. Lineages of H. arborea, H. orientalis, H. molleri have at least Pliocene age, supporting species level divergence. The genetically uniform Iberian H. molleri, although largely isolated by the Pyrenees, is parapatric to H. arborea, with evidence for successful hybridization in a small Aquitanian corridor (southwestern France), where the distribution also overlaps with H. meridionalis. The genetically uniform H. arborea, spread from Crete to Brittany, exhibits molecular signatures of a postglacial range expansion. It meets different mtDNA clades of H. orientalis in NE-Greece, along the Carpathians, and in Poland along the Vistula River (there including hybridization). The East-European H. orientalis is strongly structured genetically. Five geographic mitochondrial clades are recognized, with a molecular signature of postglacial range expansions for the clade that reached the most northern latitudes. Hybridization with H. savignyi is suggested in southwestern Turkey. Thus, cryptic diversity in these Pliocene Hyla lineages covers three extremes: a genetically poor, quasi-Iberian endemic (H. molleri), a more uniform species distributed from the Balkans to Western Europe (H. arborea), and a well-structured Asia Minor-Eastern European species (H. orientalis).

Novel immunotherapeutic strategies against human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV 16) induced lesions and cervical cancer

RESUME Le cancer du col de l'utérus, deuxième cause de mort par cancer chez la femme, a pu être associé à une infection par plusieurs types de virus du Papillome Humain (HPV), et en particulier HPV 16. Les vaccins prophylactiques sont efficaces à prévenir le cancer du col utérin alors que les lésions de haut grade sont généralement traitées par ablation chirurgicale et par d'éventuels traitements additionnels. Les risques de récurrence liés aux ablations et le taux de mortalité (50%) lié au cancer, démontrent le besoin de développer des stratégies alternatives afin de cibler les lésions précancéreuses. A ce jour, les vaccins thérapeutiques ont démontré peu de résultats cliniques, contrastant avec les régressions de tumeurs ectopiques observées après vaccination dans des modèles murins avec tumeurs associées à HPV. L'induction de réponses immunitaires protectrices dans la muqueuse génitale semble être cruciale pour l'efficacité des vaccins thérapeutiques HPV et évaluer leur efficacité dans un modèle murin avec tumeurs-HPV génitales représente un pré-requis important avant de procéder à des études cliniques. Par conséquent, nous avons établi un modèle murin orthotopique où des tumeurs se développent dans (a muqueuse génitale après une instillation intra-vaginale (i.vag) de cellules tumorales exprimant les oncogènes E6/E7 d'HPV 16 et transduites par un vecteur lentiviral codant la luciferase afin de suivre le développement de ces tumeurs in vivo par imagerie. La caractérisation histologique a démontré que les tumeurs grandissaient dans l'épithélium vaginal et en accord avec leur localisation, des cellules Τ CD8 spécifiques à E7 induites par la tumeur n'étaient détectées que dans la muqueuse génitale et les ganglions drainants. Une infiltration de cellules Τ régulatrices a aussi été mise en évidence, empêchant la régression spontanée de ces tumeurs. Par conséquent, ce modèle devrait être plus adéquat pour tester des stratégies thérapeutiques, étant donné qu'il partage certaines similarités immunologiques avec les lésions génitales naturelles causées par HPV. Etant donné que les oncogènes E6 et E7 d'HPV sont nécessaires à la maintenance du phénotype cancéreux des cellules cervicales, elles représentent des antigènes cibles pour la vaccination thérapeutique. Nous avons démontré que des souris immunisées par voie sous-cutanée (s.c.) avec une dose d'un vaccin à base de polypeptide E7 d'HPV 16 et d'adjuvants, présentaient de nombreuses cellules Τ CD8 sécrétant de l'IFN-γ spécifiquement à E7 dans leurs organes lymphatiques mais également dans la muqueuse génitale. De plus, le manque de corrélation entre les réponses spécifiques mesurées dans la périphérie et dans la muqueuse génitale souligne la nécessité et l'importance de déterminer les réponses immunitaires localement là où les lésions dues à HPV se développent. Si une vaccination par voie muqueuse est plus propice à traiter/régresser des infections génitales/tumeurs que le voie parentérale est un sujet débattu. Nos données montrent que seule la voie s.c. était capable de régresser la quasi totalité des tumeurs génitales chez la souris bien que des réponses CD8 spécifiques à E7 similaires étaient mesurées dans la muqueuse génitale après des vaccinations intra-nasale et i.vag. Afin d'augmenter la réponse spécifique au vaccin dans la muqueuse génitale, des immunostimulants ont été administrés par voie i.vag après vaccination. Nous avons démontré qu'une application i.vag d'agonistes des Toll like receptors après une vaccination s.c. induisait de manière significative une augmentation des cellules Τ CD8 sécrétant de l'IFN-γ spécifiquement à E7 dans la muqueuse génitale. Plus précisément et concernant les CpG et Poly l:C, l'effet était probablement associé à une attraction locale des cellules Τ CD8 et deuxièmement dépendait respectivement des voies de signalisation TLR9 et TLR3/Mda5. Finalement, cette stratégie combinatoire a permis de régresser des grosses tumeurs génitales chez la souris, suggérant qu'une telle immunothérapie pourrait adéquatement traiter des lésions dues à HPV chez les femmes. SUMMARY Cervical cancer is the second leading cause of cancer mortality in women worldwide and results from an infection with a subset of Human Papillomavirus (HPV), HPV 16 representing the most prevalent type. The available prophylactic vaccines are an effective strategy to prevent cervical cancer while already established high grade lesions usually require surgical ablation of lesion with possible additional treatments. Recurrence risks linked to conventional ablations and the high mortality (50%) related to cervical cancer demonstrate the need for alternative strategies like immunotherapies to target pre¬cancerous lesions. Until now, therapeutic vaccines only showed limited clinical results, which strongly contrast with the regression of ectopic tumors observed in the available murine HPV tumor models after vaccination. Induction of protective immune responses in the genital mucosa (GM) may be crucial for efficacy of HPV therapeutic vaccines and evaluating their efficacy in a murine model with genital HPV- tumors represents an important prerequisite for clinical trials. Thus, we have here established an orthotopic mouse model where tumors in the GM develop after an intravaginal (i.vag) instillation of HPV 16 E6/E7 oncogenes-expressing tumor cells transduced with a luciferase encoding lentivirus vector for in vivo imaging of tumor growth. Histological characterization showed that tumor grew within the vaginal epithelium and according to their mucosal location tumor- induced E7-specific CD8 Τ cells were restricted to the GM and genital draining lymph nodes together with high Τ regulatory cells infiltrates preventing spontaneous regression. Consequently, sharing several immunological similarities with natural genital HPV lesions, this novel genital tumor model may be more adequate to test therapeutic strategies. As E6 and/or E7 HPV oncogenes expression is required for the maintenance of the cancerous phenotype of cervical cells, they represent target antigens for therapeutic vaccination. We reported that mice subcutaneously (s.c.) immunized once with an adjuvanted HPV 16 E7 polypeptide vaccine harbored high E7-specific IFN-γ secreting CD8 Τ cells in their lymphoid organs and more importantly in the GM. In addition, the lack of correlation between specific responses measured in the periphery with those measured in the GM highlighted the necessity and relevance to determine the immune responses locally where HPV 16-induced lesions develop. Whether a mucosal route of immunization is better to treat/regress genital infections/tumors than parenteral immunization is still debated. Our data shows that although similar E7-specific IFN-γ secreting CD8 Τ cells responses were measured in the GM upon mucosal routes of E7 vaccine delivery (nasal and vaginal immunizations), only the s.c immunization was able to regress at least all genital tumors in mice. To further increase the vaccine-specific responses in the GM, immunostimulatory agents were i.vag administrated after vaccination. We demonstrated that a single i.vag application of toll like receptor (TLR) agonists after a s.c. E7 vaccination induced a significant increase of E7-specific IFN-γ secreting CD8 Τ cells in the GM. More precisely, regarding CpG and Poly l:C, the effect is most probably associated with a local attraction of total CD8 Τ cells and secondly depends on TLR9 and TLR3/Mda5 signaling pathways, respectively. Finally, this combinatorial strategy induced tumor regression in mice harboring large genital tumors, suggesting that such an immunotherapy could be adequate to treat HPV-induced lesions in women.

Non-Quasi-Competitiveness and Stability in Cournot's Model

This paper retakes previous work of the authors, about the relationship between non-quasi-competitiveness (the increase in price caused by an increase in the number of oligopolists) and stability of the equilibrium in the classical Cournot oligopoly model. Though it has been widely accepted in the literature that the loss of quasi-competitiveness is linked, in the long run as new firms entered the market, to instability of the model, the authors in their previous work put forward a model in which a situation of monopoly changed to duopoly losing quasi-competitiveness but maintaining the stability of the equilibrium. That model could not, at the time, be extended to any number of oligopolists. The present paper exhibits such an extension. An oligopoly model is shown in which the loss of quasi-competitiveness resists the presence in the market of as many firms as one wishes and where the successive Cournot's equilibrium points are unique and asymptotically stable. In this way, for the first time, the conjecture that non-quasi- competitiveness and instability were equivalent in the long run, is proved false.

Intergovernmental Transfers and Elementary Education: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Brazil

Whether providing additional resources to local communities leads to improved public services and better outcomes more generally, given existing management capacity and incentive and accountability structures, is an unresolved yet important question for public policy. This paper uses a regression-discontinuity design to evaluate the effect of unrestricted fiscal transfers on local spending (including on education), schooling and learning in Brazil. Results show that transfers increase local public spending almost one for one with no evidence of crowding out own revenue or other revenue sources. Extra per capita transfers of 1000 Reais lead to about 0.42 additional years of elementary schooling and student literacy rates increase by about 5.6 percentage points on average. Part of this effect arises through higher teacher-student ratios in municipal elementary school systems. Results also suggest that additional resources have stronger effects in more rural and less developed parts of Brazil.

Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Quasi-integration in less-than-truckload trucking

This work studies the organization of less-than-truckload trucking from a contractual point of view. We show that the huge number of owner-operators working in the industry hides a much less fragmented reality. Most of those owner-operators are quasi-integrated in higher organizational structures. This hybrid form is generally more efficient than vertical integration because, in the Spanish institutional environment, it lessens serious moral hazard problems, related mainly to the use of the vehicles, and makes it possible to reach economies of scale and density. Empirical evidence suggests that what leads organizations to vertically integrate is not the presence of such economies but hold-up problems, related to the existence of specific assets. Finally, an international comparison hints that institutional constraints are able to explain differences in the evolution of vertical integration across countries.

Government spending and re-election: Quasi-experimental evidence from Brazilian municipalities

Does additional government spending improve the electoral chances of incumbent politicalparties? This paper provides the first quasi-experimental evidence on this question. Our researchdesign exploits discontinuities in federal funding to local governments in Brazil around severalpopulation cutoffs over the period 1982-1985. We show that extra fiscal transfers resulted in a20% increase in local government spending per capita, and an increase of about 10 percentagepoints in the re-election probability of local incumbent parties. In the context of an agency modelof electoral accountability, as well as existing results indicating that the revenue jumps studiedhere had positive impacts on education outcomes and earnings, these results suggest that expectedelectoral rewards encouraged incumbents to spend additional funds in ways that were valued byvoters.

Status Upgrade:The Case of Cape Verde’s Graduation from the Least Developed Country (Ldc) Category

Esta dissertação analisa as principais características e as dificuldades que se levantam ao desenvolvimento de dois grupos de países em situações especiais, especificamente os PMA e os SIDS. Neste contexto, são abordadas questões relacionadas com medidas de apoio por parte da comunidade internacional, visando facilitar o processo de desenvolvimento dos PMA, e analisada a questão (por vezes controversa) da transição da lista de PMA. Neste quadro, é analisado o caso de Cabo Verde – o primeiro SIDS a transitar da lista de PMA –, com a consideração prévia de importantes questões de financiamento do desenvolvimento, de suma importância para a capacidade do país suster o seu desenvolvimento, a partir da entrada em vigor da sua graduação da lista dos PMA, em Janeiro de 2008.

Financing local development: Quasi-experimental evidence from municipalities in Brazil, 1980-1991

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of additional unrestrictedgrant financing on local public spending, public service provision, schooling, literacy, andincome at the community (municipio) level in Brazil. Additional transfers increased local publicspending per capita by about 20% with no evidence of crowding out own revenue or otherrevenue sources. The additional local spending increased schooling per capita by about 7% andliteracy rates by about 4 percentage points. The implied marginal cost of schooling -accountingfor corruption and other leakages- amounts to about US$ 126, which turns out to be similar tothe average cost of schooling in Brazil in the early 1980s. In line with the effect on human capital,the poverty rate was reduced by about 4 percentage points, while income per capita gains werepositive but not statistically significant. Results also suggest that additional public spending hadstronger effects on schooling and literacy in less developed parts of Brazil, while poverty reductionwas evenly spread across the country.

On the robustness of least-squares Monte Carlo (LSM) for pricing American derivatives

This paper analyses the robustness of Least-Squares Monte Carlo, a techniquerecently proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) for pricing Americanoptions. This method is based on least-squares regressions in which theexplanatory variables are certain polynomial functions. We analyze theimpact of different basis functions on option prices. Numerical resultsfor American put options provide evidence that a) this approach is veryrobust to the choice of different alternative polynomials and b) few basisfunctions are required. However, these conclusions are not reached whenanalyzing more complex derivatives.

A non-quasi-competitive Cournot oligopoly with stability

This paper presents a classical Cournot oligopoly model with some peculiar features: it is non--quasi--competitive as price under N-poly is greater than monopoly price; Cournot equilibrium exists and is unique with each new entry; the successive equilibria after new entries are stable under the adjustment mechanism that assumes that actual output of each seller is adjusted proportionally to the difference between actual output and profit maximizing output. Moreover, the model tends to perfect competition as N goes to infinity, reaching the monopoly price again.

The quasi-judicial role of large retailers: An efficiency hypothesis of their relation with suppliers

The paper explores an efficiency hypothesis regarding the contractual process between large retailers, such as Wal-Mart and Carrefour, and their suppliers. The empirical evidence presented supports the idea that large retailers play a quasi-judicial role, acting as "courts of first instance" in their relationships with suppliers. In this role, large retailers adjust the terms of trade to on-going changes and sanction performance failures, sometimes delaying payments. A potential abuse of their position is limited by the need for re-contracting and preserving their reputations. Suppliers renew their confidence in their retailers on a yearly basis, through writing new contracts. This renovation contradicts the alternative hypothesis that suppliers are expropriated by large retailers as a consequence of specific investments.

When are layoffs acceptable? Evidence from a quasi-experiment

Many authors have discussed a decline in internal labor markets and an apparent shift to a new employment contract, characterized by less commitment between employer and employee and more portable skills. These discussions occur without much evidence on what employment contract employees currently feel is fair. We perfomed quasi-experimental surveys to study when employees in the U.S. andCanada feel that layoffs are fair.Layoffs were perceived as more fair if they were due to lower product demand than if the result of employee suggestions. This result appears to be solely due to norms of reciprocity (companiesshould not punish employees for their efforts), rather than norms of sharing rents, as new technology was also considered a justification for layoffs.Consistent with theories of distributive and procedural equity, layoffs were perceived as more fair if the CEO voluntarily shared the pain. CEO bonuses due to layoffs lowered their reported fairness only slightly.Respondents in Silicon Valley were not more accepting of layoffsthan were those in Canada on average, although the justificationsconsidered valid differed slightly.

Nest plasticity of Cornitermes silvestrii (Isoptera, Termitidae, Syntermitinae) in response to flood pulse in the Pantanal, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Nest plasticity of Cornitermes silvestrii (Isoptera, Termitidae, Syntermitinae) in response to flood pulse in the Pantanal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. The Pantanal is one of the largest wetlands in the world. Since many areas in Pantanal are flooded during part of the year, it is expected that plants and animals would have mechanisms for their survival during the flooded period. This study investigated the existence of differences in nest shape and inquilines of Cornitermes silvestrii in areas influenced by the flood pulse. We measured the volume, height, width, and height/width ratio of 32 nests in flooded areas and 27 in dry areas, and performed an one-way-Anova with the quasi-Poisson distribution to determine if there were differences in the nest measurements between the points. To analyze the relationship of nest inquilines to flood pulse and nest shape, we performed a regression with a Poisson distribution with the inquiline richness and flood pulse, and the above measurements. The nests of C. silvestrii in flooded areas were significantly higher than nests in dry areas, and had a larger height/width ratio. Colonies in periodically flooded areas would probably make a larger effort to extend their nests vertically, to maintain at least some portion of the structure out of the water and prevent the entire colony from being submerged. Neither the size of the nest nor the flood pulses influenced the assemblage of 11 species found in nests of C. silvestrii.