Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Letting the managers manage: analyzing capacity to conserve biodiversity in a cross-border protected area network

Biodiversity loss is one of the most significant drivers of ecosystem change and is projected to continue at a rapid rate. While protected areas, such as national parks, are seen as important refuges for biodiversity, their effectiveness in stemming biodiversity decline has been questioned. Public agencies have a critical role in the governance of many such areas, but there are tensions between the need for these agencies to be more “adaptive” and their current operating environment. Our aim is to analyze how institutions enable or constrain capacity to conserve biodiversity in a globally significant cross-border network of protected areas, the Australian Alps. Using a novel conceptual framework for diagnosing biodiversity institutions, our research examined institutional adaptive capacity and more general capacity for conserving biodiversity. Several intertwined issues limit public agencies’ capacity to fulfill their conservation responsibilities. Narrowly defined accountability measures constrain adaptive capacity and divert attention away from addressing key biodiversity outcomes. Implications for learning were also evident, with protected area agencies demonstrating successful learning for on-ground issues but less success in applying this learning to deeper policy change. Poor capacity to buffer political and community influences in managing significant cross-border drivers of biodiversity decline signals poor fit with the institutional context and has implications for functional fit. While cooperative federalism provides potential benefits for buffering through diversity, it also means protected area agencies have restricted authority to address cross-border threats. Restrictions on staff authority and discretion, as public servants, have further implications for deploying capacity. This analysis, particularly the possibility of fostering “ambidexterity”—creatively responding to political pressures in a way that also achieves a desirable outcome for biodiversity conservation—is one promising way of building capacity to buffer both political influences and ecological pressures. The findings and the supporting analysis provide insight into how institutional capacity to conserve biodiversity can be enhanced in protected areas in Australia and elsewhere, especially those governed by public agencies and/or multiple organizations and across jurisdictions.

Economic Evaluations of State Policies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Eleição nas escolas: uma análise do impacto do diretor eleito sobre o desempenho educacional no Estado da Bahia

In Brazil, the selection of school principals is set in a decentralized manner by each state and city, such that processes may vary with time for a specific locality. In the state of Bahia, school principals were appointed by a higher political hierarchy until 2008, when schools under state administration started selecting principals by elections. The main goal of this work is to evaluate whether changing this specific rule affected students proficiency levels. This is achieved by using a panel data and difference-in-differences approachs that compares state schools (treatment group) to city schools (control group) that did not face a selection rule change and thus kept having their principals politically appointed. The databases used are Prova Brasil 2007, 2009 and 2011, the first one prior and the other two former to the policy change. Our results suggest that students attending schools with principals that are selected and elected have slightly lower mean proficiency levels both in mathematics and in portuguese exams than those attending schools with appointed principals. This result, according to the literature, could be related to perverse effects of selecting school administrators by vote, such as corporatism, clientelism and politicization of the school environment

Zmiany w programach kształcenia w zakresie edukacji obywatelskiej w Kanadzie

The aim of this article was to examine how the currently dominant neoliberal and neoconservative discourse is present in the sector of education. The subject of research was to show the influence of a certain ideology on the process of reformulating secondary schools curricula in Canada, especially in Ontario, and the program materials designed for adult immigrants preparing for a citizenship test. This paper explores the relationship between the neoliberal ideology present at the provincial level, where individual development and economic rationales are dominant, and the neoconservative ideology at the federal level, which recovers imperial roots of Canadian citizenship, grounded in the Anglo-Saxon tradition and colonial history.

Tackling health inequalities in primary care: an exploration of GPs’ experience at the frontline

In Scotland, life expectancy and health outcomes are strongly tied to socioeconomic status. Specifically, socioeconomically deprived areas suffer disproportionately from high levels of premature multimorbidity and mortality. To tackle these inequalities in health, challenges in the most deprived areas must be addressed. One avenue that merits attention is the potential role of general medical practitioners (GPs) in helping to address health inequalities, particularly due to their long-term presence in deprived communities, their role in improving patient and population health, and their potential advocacy role on behalf of their patients. GPs can be seen as what Lipsky calls ‘street-level bureaucrats’ due to their considerable autonomy in the decisions they make surrounding individual patient needs, yet practising under the bureaucratic structure of the NHS. While previous research has examined the applicability of Lipsky’s framework to the role of GPs, there has been very little research exploring how GPs negotiate between the multiple identities in their work, how GPs ‘socially construct’ their patients, how GPs view their potential role as ‘advocate’, and what this means in terms of the contribution of GPs to addressing existing inequalities in health. Using semi-structured interviews, this study explored the experience and views of 24 GPs working in some of Scotland’s most deprived practices to understand how they might combat this growing health divide via the mitigation (and potential prevention) of existing health inequalities. Participants were selected based on several criteria including practice deprivation level and their individual involvement in the Deep End project, which is an informal network comprising the 100 most deprived general practices in Scotland. The research focused on understanding GPs’ perceptions of their work including its broader implications, within their practice, the communities within which they practise, and the health system as a whole. The concept of street-level bureaucracy proved to be useful in understanding GPs’ frontline work and how they negotiate dilemmas. However, this research demonstrated the need to look beyond Lipsky’s framework in order to understand how GPs reconcile their multiple identities, including advocate and manager. As a result, the term ‘street-level professional’ is offered to capture more fully the multiple identities which GPs inhabit and to explain how GPs’ elite status positions them to engage in political and policy advocacy. This study also provides evidence that GPs’ social constructions of patients are linked not only to how GPs conceptualise the causes of health inequalities, but also to how they view their role in tackling them. In line with this, the interviews established that many GPs felt they could make a difference through advocacy efforts at individual, community and policy/political levels. Furthermore, the study draws attention to the importance of practitioner-led groups—such as the Deep End project—in supporting GPs’ efforts and providing a platform for their advocacy. Within this study, a range of GPs’ views have been explored based on the sample. While it is unclear how common these views are amongst GPs in general, the study revealed that there is considerable scope for ‘political GPs’ who choose to exercise discretion in their communities and beyond. Consequently, GPs working in deprived areas should be encouraged to use their professional status and political clout not only to strengthen local communities, but also to advocate for policy change that might potentially affect the degree of disadvantage of their patients, and levels of social and health inequalities more generally.

Eleição nas escolas: uma análise do impacto do diretor eleito sobre o desempenho educacional no Estado da Bahia

In Brazil, the selection of school principals is set in a decentralized manner by each state and city, such that processes may vary with time for a specific locality. In the state of Bahia, school principals were appointed by a higher political hierarchy until 2008, when schools under state administration started selecting principals by elections. The main goal of this work is to evaluate whether changing this specific rule affected students proficiency levels. This is achieved by using a panel data and difference-in-differences approachs that compares state schools (treatment group) to city schools (control group) that did not face a selection rule change and thus kept having their principals politically appointed. The databases used are Prova Brasil 2007, 2009 and 2011, the first one prior and the other two former to the policy change. Our results suggest that students attending schools with principals that are selected and elected have slightly lower mean proficiency levels both in mathematics and in portuguese exams than those attending schools with appointed principals. This result, according to the literature, could be related to perverse effects of selecting school administrators by vote, such as corporatism, clientelism and politicization of the school environment

The EU and the Domestic Politics of Welfare State Reforms

Does European integration influence national social policies? What is the use of EU laws, orientations and guidelines? Based on a systematic comparison of ten national cases, including both old and new member states, representing all families of welfare regimes, this volume explores and specifies the mechanisms through which the EU plays a role in domestic social policy changes. It focuses on where, when and how national actors use the tools and resources offered by the process of European integration to support them in the national welfare reforms they are engaged in. The comprehensive research design and the systematic comparisons provide a unique opportunity to fully grasp the mechanisms of domestic welfare state change within the context of the European Union multilevel political system. This book proposes both a new step within the Europeanization and the welfare state literatures. It confirms the idea that Europe matters in a differential way since EU social policy will be selectively used by domestic political actors in accordance with their political preferences. It provides a clear explanation of why no EU-induced social policy change can occur without an overall support offered by key domestic decision-makers. (Résumé éditeur)

THE CELEBRITY BURDEN: CELEBRITY CAMPAIGNS IN THE PURSUIT OF HUMANITARIANISM

Celebrity participation in humanitarianism and politics has received a lot of attention in recent times. Though many researchers have sought to explain the reasons underlying this phenomenon, there appears to be little information as to the efficacy of these celebrity efforts. The present research thus undertakes an analysis of the celebrity's participation through a study on the effectiveness of the celebrity-led campaign. To achieve this, I conduct a discourse and visual analysis of media publications surrounding two celebrity-led campaigns. The research leans heavy on theories underlining the celebrity mechanism and Street et al's framework on celebrity participation in politics. The study confirms Street et al's argument that performance, legitimacy and organization are central to the success of the celebrity-led campaign. For campaigns aimed at initiating policy change, I propose an additional category of stakeholders' response which provides a means of evaluating efficacy. My findings show that organization, legitimization, stakeholders' response and performance are highly dependent on the actions of the lead celebrity, making these celebrities active agents in the production of discourse on the "third world". As celebrities engage in humanitarian work, they take up positions as representatives of the aid recipient. The result is the dispossession and silencing of the aid recipient. Out of my discussion of these practices evolves the concept of the celebrity burden.

Examination of Inequalities in Hungary by Microsimulation in Consistency with Macro Data

Effective decision making uses various databases including both micro and macro level datasets. In many cases it is a big challenge to ensure the consistency of the two levels. Different types of problems can occur and several methods can be used to solve them. The paper concentrates on the input alignment of the households’ income for microsimulation, which means refers to improving the elements of a micro data survey (EU-SILC) by using macro data from administrative sources. We use a combined micro-macro model called ECONS-TAX for this improvement. We also produced model projections until 2015 which is important because the official EU-SILC micro database will only be available in Hungary in the summer of 2017. The paper presents our estimations about the dynamics of income elements and the changes in income inequalities. Results show that the aligned data provides a different level of income inequality, but does not affect the direction of change from year to year. However, when we analyzed policy change, the use of aligned data caused larger differences both in income levels and in their dynamics.

Relatos y Redes de Política Pública de Niñez en Colombia 1991 - 2014

El presente estudio describe los cambios en la políticas públicas de niñez en Colombia entre 1991 y 2014, mediante el análisis tanto de las narrativas y contranarrativas de política gestadas en este periodo de tiempo, como de los factores que propiciaron la conformación de una red de política pública y el posterior desarrollo de diversos modos de interacción entre los grupos de actores identificados. Parte esta investigación de situar antecedentes y factores relevantes que permiten contrastar, por un lado, contenidos y perspectivas entre diferentes periodos de tiempo, y por otro lado, el número, tipo, y dinámica de relaciones entre los diversos actores involucrados en este campo antes de 1991, y posterior a este año hasta 2014. En síntesis, a través de los hallazgos y análisis realizados se busca no solo plantear qué se transformó entre 1991 y 2014 respecto a la construcción de la niñez como referente de políticas públicas, sino también, cómo se gestó esta transformación, con el fin de proveer elementos que permitan comprender principalmente los énfasis y las variaciones que han tenido las políticas públicas de niñez en el país, pero también, algunas continuidades por periodos más específicos de tiempo.

The Commission, the Single Market and the Crisis: The Limits of Purposeful Opportunism

The economic and financial crisis opened a window of opportunity to place the Single Market back on top of the European agenda as part of a two-tiered crisis response, which also included reinforced financial supervision and economic co-ordination. We argue that the Commission acted as a ‘purposeful opportunist’ in both tiers; but whereas in economic governance issues there was breakthrough change in the Commission's achievements and competences, in the Single Market realm policy change was fairly modest. Using process tracing analysis our goal is to explain why the Commission did not succeed in furthering a genuine Single Market reform. Our findings suggest that the Commission's entrepreneurship was constrained by the limited salience of Single Market issues in the crisis context and by the lack of actual political commitment from the other relevant stakeholders. Thus, our research highlights the limits of the Commission's opportunistic behaviour in less advantageous circumstances.

Construction supply chain economic policy implementation for sectoral change : moving beyond the rhetoric

Construction sector policy makers have the opportunity to create improvements and develop economic, social and environmental sustainability through supply chain economics. The idea of the supply chain concept to improve firm behaviour and industry performance is not new. However there has been limited application and little or no measurement to monitor successful implementation. Often purchasing policies have been developed with sound strategic procurement principles but even these have had limited penetration in to the processes and practices of infrastructure agencies. The research reported in this paper documents an action research study currently being undertaken in the Australian construction sector which aims to explore supply chain economic policy implementation for sectoral change by two government agencies. The theory which informs this study is the emerging area of construction supply chain economics. There are five stages to the project including; demand analysis, chain analysis, government agency organizational audit, supplier strategy and strategic alignment. The overall objective is towards the development of a Supplier Group Strategy Map for two public sector agencies. Two construction subsectors are examined in detail; construction and demolition waste and precast concrete. Both of these subsectors are critical to the economic and environmental sustainability performance of the construction sector and the community as a whole in the particular jurisdictions. The local and state government agencies who are at the core of the case studies rely individually on the performance of these sectors. The study is set within the context of a sound state purchasing policy that has however, had limited application by the two agencies. Partial results of the study are presented and early findings indicate that the standard risk versus expenditure procurement model does not capture the complexities of project, owner and government risk considerations. A new model is proposed in this paper, which incorporates the added dimension of time. The research results have numerous stakeholders; they will hold particular value for those interested in regional construction sector economics, government agencies who develop and implement policy and who have a large construction purchasing imprint and the players involved in the two subsectors. Even though this is a study in Australia it has widespread applicability as previous research indicates that procurement reform is of international significance and policy implementation is problematic.

Making literacy policy and practice with a difference : generational change, professionalisation and literate futures

This article has been edited from a transcript of the keynote address to the combined ALEA/MTE National Conference, Hobart, Tasmania, August 2001. In this talk Allan reflects on some of the difficulties facing makers of literacy policy in 'New Times'. His reflections are informed by some important research that is having an impact· on literacy teaching in Australia and he raises various issues, ranging from what he sees as a 'dumbing down' of curriculum, to addressing the needs of'at risk' students, to issues of lifelong education in a rapidly changing world.