International study of perceived neighbourhood environmental attributes and Body Mass Index: IPEN Adult study in 12 countries

BACKGROUND: Ecological models of health behaviour are an important conceptual framework to address the multiple correlates of obesity. Several single-country studies previously examined the relationship between the built environment and obesity in adults, but results are very diverse. An important reason for these mixed results is the limited variability in built environments in these single-country studies. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine associations between perceived neighbourhood built environmental attributes and BMI/weight status in a multi-country study including 12 environmentally and culturally diverse countries. METHODS: A multi-site cross-sectional study was conducted in 17 cities (study sites) across 12 countries (Australia, Belgium, Brazil, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, the UK and USA). Participants (n = 14222, 18-66 years) self-reported perceived neighbourhood environmental attributes. Height and weight were self-reported in eight countries, and measured in person in four countries. RESULTS: Three environmental attributes were associated with BMI or weight status in pooled data from 12 countries. Safety from traffic was the most robust correlate, suggesting that creating safe routes for walking/cycling by reducing the speed and volume of traffic might have a positive impact upon weight status/BMI across various geographical locations. Close proximity to several local destinations was associated with BMI across all countries, suggesting compact neighbourhoods with more places to walk related to lower BMI. Safety from crime showed a curvilinear relationship with BMI, with especially poor crime safety being related to higher BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental interventions involving these three attributes appear to have international relevance and focusing on these might have implications for tackling overweight/obesity.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

Környezeti kockázatok felmérése. Paraméterek bizonytalanságának hatása a kockázatkezelési döntéshozatalra = Assessment of environmental risks – effects of parameter uncertainty to the risk management decisions

A környezeti kockázatok megfelelő felmérése és kezelése napjaink egyik legfontosabb kérdése, nemcsak a szakmai, hanem a széles értelemben vett közvélemény számára. A szerző cikkében azt vizsgálja, hogy a környezeti kockázatok felmérésének milyen megközelítései vannak. Kulcskérdésként pedig arra koncentrál, hogy a kockázatkezelési döntéseket hogyan befolyásolja a becslések bizonytalansága. Először a környezeti kockázat definícióját adja meg, majd azt mutatja be, hogy a környezeti kockázatok kezelésére vonatkozó megközelítések milyen párhuzamban állnak a pénzügyi rendszerrel, mint komplex rendszerre vonatkozó megközelítésekkel. Végül a jelenleg legnagyobb kockázatoknak tartott környezeti kockázatokat ismerteti röviden. A cikk második részében kockázatkezelési alternatívákat mutat be, és azt, hogy a kockázatkezelési lépések kiválasztását befolyásolja a bizonytalanság. Ezt illusztrálandó Brouwer-Blois (2008) modelljét használva a soklépéses szimulációt és alternatív döntési kritériumot – a kritikus (extrém) költség-hatás mutatót – alkalmazza. _____________ Adequate assessment and management of environmental risks is a key question nowadays also for professional experts and also for the overall public. In this article the author examines the different approaches concerning environmental risks. He concentrates as a key question the influence on risk management decisions of uncertainties raised by our estimations. First he analyses the definition of environmental risks, and he shows the similarities and differences between approaches concerning environmental risks and risks threatening financial system, and finally he gives short overview on the most current environmental risks. In the second part of the paper he presents risk management alternatives and analyses the influential power of uncertainty on risk management decisions. In order to illustrate this phenomenon the author applies the model of Brouwer-Blois (2008) with multistep simulation and an alternative decisive criterion, the ranking based on critical (extreme) cost to effect measure.

The impact of perceived corporate environmental performance on the behavior of capital market decision makers : analysis of food industry companies

Environmental protectionism and sustainable development has been gaining increased attention among governments, investors and consumers alike. As a result, firms are facing growing pressure from the various stakeholders to improve their environmental performance. This study is focusing on the food industry, which in recent years has been a subject of increased scrutiny due to their role in resource consumption, waste generation and unsustainable production practices. Our research is aiming to examine how the financial community evaluates the environmental stewardship of food industry companies as proxied by market reactions in response to environmental news. Are all company related environmental news items evaluated equally, and which financial and non-financial firm-specific attributes can influence market responses? Have there been changes in reactions on the stock exchange in the past two decades?

Increasing relevance and interest : teaching environmental and planning law to built environment students

A new approach was taken to delivering a challenging "stewarship of land" unit to over 350 predominantly first year built environment students stewardship. The new approach involved incorporating environmental and planning law into the syllabus, exposing students to a wide range of statutes, selecting legal cases according to a et of criteria and revisiting the material using different modes of delivery and teaching resources. To evaluate the effectiveness of the new approach, the students were surveyed to elicit their learning experience and preferences. The survey found that most students perceived learning about environmental and planning law, including legal cases, worthwhile.----- Areas identified by the surcey for improvement included the perception by some students that: environmenatl and planning law is irrelevant to their discipline and future caree; studying law is dull and sometimes daunting; and the prescribed reading could be omitted.----- To address student perceptions, it is proposed to reorder the topics commencing with local, charismatic topics, while explanding international content and cases, to enlarge and enhance the repertoire of video clips to include sites of legal cawses and development projects, and to reformat the online weekly quizzes to promote reading of primary material.----- Overall, the approach to teaching environmental and planning law to built environment students, including the criteria for selecting legal cases, described in this paper, was found to be effective.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0907, July 2009 : President's Message

President’s Message AITPM President’s Message, July 2009 Hello fellow AITPM members, It’s now very early July so many Australians are going to experience a range of new, or increases in, fees, charges, and perhaps taxes by State and local governments. For example, Queenslanders are to be hit at the petrol pump, no longer living with the luxury of the State’s previous 8c per litre fuel subsidy, bringing general motorists’ fuel costs into line with the other States. A consolation is that they now don’t have to live with the real or perceived “price gouging” that has appeared in the past to make Queensland prices much closer than 8c to those in other States. Environmental lobbyists argue that this Government’s decision brings public transport costs closer to parity with private transport. However, my sense from sloppy petrol price elasticities is that the State’s motorists will get used to the reversal of what was a reverse tax pretty quickly, an amount which can be less than day-of-the week fluctuation. On the other hand, withholding this State revenue may help in some way the funding of the several major public transport infrastructure projects in progress; not to mention some of the cost of running the Transit Authority’s expanding service commitments. Other policy actions, such as a Federal Government review of taxation on employees’ package vehicles, which might discourage rather than encourage excess kilometres travelled, may have a greater environmental benefit. Of course, a downside is that many vehicles used so are Australian built, and discouraging fleet turnover may damage an industry which faces ever increasing uncertainty, and particularly at the present, is in need of some care and attention. I for one hope to this end that the new 4 cylinder (1.8L petrol or 2L diesel) so called “true Holden” Cruze and Toyota’s pending Camry Hybrid are both roaring successes, and will be taken up in droves as fleet and employee use vehicles. I’m not sure what drive-trains Ford and Holden plan to drop into their next full sized models but even if they’re not Australian sourced, let’s hope they coordinate the requisite performance expected by the “Aussie Battler” with suitable green credentials. I am also encouraged to see that already many Government fleet vehicles are smaller in size, but still fit for purpose. For instance, my local police station uses the Camry based Aurion as a district car. I close again in reminding everyone that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

How environmental and organizational complexity affects opportunity recognition and exploitation in development projects

Principal Topic: Project structures are often created by entrepreneurs and large corporate organizations to develop new products. Since new product development projects (NPDP) are more often situated within a larger organization, intrapreneurship or corporate entrepreneurship plays an important role in bringing these projects to fruition. Since NPDP often involves the development of a new product using immature technology, we describe development of an immature technology. The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) F-35 aircraft is being developed by the U.S. Department of Defense and eight allied nations. In 2001 Lockheed Martin won a $19 billion contract to develop an affordable, stealthy and supersonic all-weather strike fighter designed to replace a wide range of aging fighter aircraft. In this research we define a complex project as one that demonstrates a number of sources of uncertainty to a degree, or level of severity, that makes it extremely difficult to predict project outcomes, to control or manage project (Remington & Zolin, Forthcoming). Project complexity has been conceptualized by Remington and Pollock (2007) in terms of four major sources of complexity; temporal, directional, structural and technological complexity (See Figure 1). Temporal complexity exists when projects experience significant environmental change outside the direct influence or control of the project. The Global Economic Crisis of 2008 - 2009 is a good example of the type of environmental change that can make a project complex as, for example in the JSF project, where project managers attempt to respond to changes in interest rates, international currency exchange rates and commodity prices etc. Directional complexity exists in a project where stakeholders' goals are unclear or undefined, where progress is hindered by unknown political agendas, or where stakeholders disagree or misunderstand project goals. In the JSF project all the services and all non countries have to agree to the specifications of the three variants of the aircraft; Conventional Take Off and Landing (CTOL), Short Take Off/Vertical Landing (STOVL) and the Carrier Variant (CV). Because the Navy requires a plane that can take off and land on an aircraft carrier, that required a special variant of the aircraft design, adding complexity to the project. Technical complexity occurs in a project using technology that is immature or where design characteristics are unknown or untried. Developing a plane that can take off on a very short runway and land vertically created may highly interdependent technological challenges to correctly locate, direct and balance the lift fans, modulate the airflow and provide equivalent amount of thrust from the downward vectored rear exhaust to lift the aircraft and at the same time control engine temperatures. These technological challenges make costing and scheduling equally challenging. Structural complexity in a project comes from the sheer numbers of elements such as the number of people, teams or organizations involved, ambiguity regarding the elements, and the massive degree of interconnectedness between them. While Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor, they are assisted in major aspects of the JSF development by Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, Pratt & Whitney and GE/Rolls-Royce Fighter Engineer Team and innumerable subcontractors. In addition to identifying opportunities to achieve project goals, complex projects also need to identify and exploit opportunities to increase agility in response to changing stakeholder demands or to reduce project risks. Complexity Leadership Theory contends that in complex environments adaptive and enabling leadership are needed (Uhl-Bien, Marion and McKelvey, 2007). Adaptive leadership facilitates creativity, learning and adaptability, while enabling leadership handles the conflicts that inevitably arise between adaptive leadership and traditional administrative leadership (Uhl-Bien and Marion, 2007). Hence, adaptive leadership involves the recognition and opportunities to adapt, while and enabling leadership involves the exploitation of these opportunities. Our research questions revolve around the type or source of complexity and its relationship to opportunity recognition and exploitation. For example, is it only external environmental complexity that creates the need for the entrepreneurial behaviours, such as opportunity recognition and opportunity exploitation? Do the internal dimensions of project complexity, such as technological and structural complexity, also create the need for opportunity recognition and opportunity exploitation? The Kropp, Zolin and Lindsay model (2009) describes a relationship between entrepreneurial orientation (EO), opportunity recognition (OR), and opportunity exploitation (OX) in complex projects, with environmental and organizational contextual variables as moderators. We extend their model by defining the affects of external complexity and internal complexity on OR and OX. ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: When the environment complex EO is more likely to result in OR because project members will be actively looking for solutions to problems created by environmental change. But in projects that are technologically or structurally complex project leaders and members may try to make the minimum changes possible to reduce the risk of creating new problems due to delays or schedule changes. In projects with environmental or technological complexity project leaders who encourage the innovativeness dimension of EO will increase OR in complex projects. But projects with technical or structural complexity innovativeness will not necessarily result in the recognition and exploitation of opportunities due to the over-riding importance of maintaining stability in the highly intricate and interconnected project structure. We propose that in projects with environmental complexity creating the need for change and innovation project leaders, who are willing to accept and manage risk, are more likely to identify opportunities to increase project effectiveness and efficiency. In contrast in projects with internal complexity a much higher willingness to accept risk will be necessary to trigger opportunity recognition. In structurally complex projects we predict it will be less likely to find a relationship between risk taking and OP. When the environment is complex, and a project has autonomy, they will be motivated to execute opportunities to improve the project's performance. In contrast, when the project has high internal complexity, they will be more cautious in execution. When a project experiences high competitive aggressiveness and their environment is complex, project leaders will be motivated to execute opportunities to improve the project's performance. In contrast, when the project has high internal complexity, they will be more cautious in execution. This paper reports the first stage of a three year study into the behaviours of managers, leaders and team members of complex projects. We conduct a qualitative study involving a Group Discussion with experienced project leaders. The objective is to determine how leaders of large and potentially complex projects perceive that external and internal complexity will influence the affects of EO on OR. ---------- Results and Implications: These results will help identify and distinguish the impact of external and internal complexity on entrepreneurial behaviours in NPDP. Project managers will be better able to quickly decide how and when to respond to changes in the environment and internal project events.

Mentoring experiences as professional development for leaders in environmental education : the cascade of influence

Environmental education is a field which has only come of age since the late nineteen sixties. While its content and practice have been widely debated and researched, its leadership has been minimally studied and, therefore, is only partially understood. The role of mentoring in the development of leaders has been alluded to, but has attracted scant research. Therefore, this study explores the importance of mentoring during the personal and professional development of leaders in environmental education. Four major research questions were investigated. Firstly, have leaders been men to red during their involvement with environmental education? Secondly, when and how has that mentoring taken place? Thirdly, what was the personal and professional effectiveness of the mentoring relationship? Fourthly, is there any continuation of the mentoring process which might be appropriate for professional development within the field of environmental education? Leaders were solicited from a broad field of environmental educators including teachers, administrators, academics, natural resource personnel, business and community persons. They had to be recognized as active leaders across several environmental education networks. The research elicited qualitative and quantitative survey data from fifty seven persons in Queensland, Australia and Colorado, USA. Seventeen semi-structured interviews were subsequently conducted with selected leaders who had nominated their mentors. This led to a further thirteen 'linked interviews' with some of the mentors' mentors and new mentorees. The interview data is presented as four cases reflecting pairs, triads, chains and webs of relationships- a major finding of the research process. The analysis of the data from the interviews and the surveys was conducted according to a grounded theory approach and was facilitated by NUD.IST, a computer program for non-numerical text analysis. The findings of the study revealed many variations on the classical mentoring patterns found in the literature. Gender and age were not seen as mportant factors, as there were examples of contemporaries in age, older men to younger women, older women to younger men, and women to women. Personal compatibility, professional respect and philosophical congruence were critical. Mentoring was initiated from early, mid and late career stages with the average length of the relationship being fourteen years. There was seldom an example of the mentoree using the mentor for hierarchical career climbing, although frequent career changes were made. However, leadership actions were found to increase after the intervention of a mentoring relationship. Three major categories of informal mentoring were revealed - perceived,acknowledged and deliberate. Further analysis led to the evolution of the core concept, a 'cascade of influence'. The major finding of this study was that this sample of leaders, mentors and new mentorees moved from the perception of having been mentored to the acknowledgment of these relationships and an affirmation of their efficacy for both personal and professional growth. Hence, the participants were more likely to continue future mentoring, not as a serendipitous happening, but through a deliberate choice. Heightened awareness and more frequent 'cascading' of mentoring have positive implications for the professional development of future leaders in environmental education in both formal and informal settings. Effective mentoring in environmental education does not seek to create 'clones' of the mentors, but rather to foster the development of autonomous mentorees who share a philosophical grounding. It is a deliberate invitation to 'join the clan'.