934 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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The performance space in which Wesley Enoch’s play Black Diggers is being performed at the Brisbane Festival is a large black box. It features a raised stage in the middle which proves versatile for battlegrounds at home and abroad – and later as ground for discriminatory encounters experienced by Aboriginal returned ex-servicemen. The fire-filled 44-gallon drum off to the side creates another space of encounter; there are few other props. Now and then, dates and other details are whitewashed on the black walls...

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We examined whether self-ratings of “being active” among older people living in four different settings (major city high and lower density suburbs, a regional city, and a rural area) were associated with out-of-home participation and outdoor physical activity. A mixed-methods approach (survey, travel diary, and GPS tracking over a one-week period) was used to gather data from 48 individuals aged over 55 years. Self-ratings of “being active” were found to be positively correlated with the number of days older people spent time away from home but unrelated to time traveled by active means (walking and biking). No significant differences in active travel were found between the four study locations, despite differences in their respective built environments.The findings suggest that additional strategies to the creation of “age-friendly” environments are needed if older people are to increase their levels of outdoor physical activity. “Active aging” promotion campaigns may need to explicitly identify the benefits of walking outdoors to ambulatory older people as a means of maintaining their overall health, functional ability, and participation within society in the long-term and also encourage the development of community-based programs in order to facilitate regular walking for this group.

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Cognitive scientists were not quick to embrace the functional neuroimaging technologies that emerged during the late 20th century. In this new century, cognitive scientists continue to question, not unreasonably, the relevance of functional neuroimaging investigations that fail to address questions of interest to cognitive science. However, some ultra-cognitive scientists assert that these experiments can never be of relevance to the study of cognition. Their reasoning reflects an adherence to a functionalist philosophy that arbitrarily and purposefully distinguishes mental information-processing systems from brain or brain-like operations. This article addresses whether data from properly conducted functional neuroimaging studies can inform and subsequently constrain the assumptions of theoretical cognitive models. The article commences with a focus upon the functionalist philosophy espoused by the ultra-cognitive scientists, contrasting it with the materialist philosophy that motivates both cognitive neuroimaging investigations and connectionist modelling of cognitive systems. Connectionism and cognitive neuroimaging share many features, including an emphasis on unified cognitive and neural models of systems that combine localist and distributed representations. The utility of designing cognitive neuroimaging studies to test (primarily) connectionist models of cognitive phenomena is illustrated using data from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) investigations of language production and episodic memory.

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The extended title for this splendid visual feast is a catalogue to accompany the exhibition Postcards from the Edge of the City at the Santos Museum ofE conomic Botany, 9 December 2014 to 26 April 2015. As a catalogue this book contains the from and back sides of 300 postcards published between 1900 and 1917...

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Non-parametric difference tests such as triangle and duo-trio tests traditionally are used to establish differences or similarities between products. However they only supply the researcher with partial answers and often further testing is required to establish the nature, size and direction of differences. This paper looks at the advantages of the difference from control (DFC) test (also known as degree of difference test) and discusses appropriate applications of the test. The scope and principle of the test, panel composition and analysis of results are presented with the aid of suitable examples. Two of the major uses of the DFC test are in quality control and shelf-life testing. The role DFC takes in these areas and the use of other tests to complement the testing is discussed. Controls or standards are important in both these areas and the use of standard products, mental and written standards and blind controls are highlighted. The DFC test has applications in products where the duo-trio and triangle tests cannot be used because of the normal heterogeneity of the product. While the DFC test is a simple difference test it can be structured to give the researcher more valuable data and scope to make informed decisions about their product.

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Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

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Out-of-plane behaviour of mortared and mortarless masonry walls with various forms of reinforcement, including unreinforced masonry as a base case is examined using a layered shell element based explicit finite element modelling method. Wall systems containing internal reinforcement, external surface reinforcement and intermittently laced reinforced concrete members and unreinforced masonry panels are considered. Masonry is modelled as a layer with macroscopic orthotropic properties; external reinforcing render, grout and reinforcing bars are modelled as distinct layers of the shell element. Predictions from the layered shell model have been validated using several out-of-plane experimental datasets reported in the literature. The model is used to examine the effectiveness of two retrofitting schemes for an unreinforced masonry wall.

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An explicit finite element modelling method is formulated using a layered shell element to examine the behaviour of masonry walls subject to out-of-plane loading. Masonry is modelled as a homogenised material with distinct directional properties that are calibrated from datasets of a “C” shaped wall tested under pressure loading applied to its web. The predictions of the layered shell model have been validated using several out-of-plane experimental datasets reported in the literature. Profound influence of support conditions, aspect ratio, pre-compression and opening to the strength and ductility of masonry walls is exhibited from the sensitivity analyses performed using the model.

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In this study, novel methodologies for the determination of antioxidative compounds in herbs and beverages were developed. Antioxidants are compounds that can reduce, delay or inhibit oxidative events. They are a part of the human defense system and are obtained through the diet. Antioxidants are naturally present in several types of foods, e.g. in fruits, beverages, vegetables and herbs. Antioxidants can also be added to foods during manufacturing to suppress lipid oxidation and formation of free radicals under conditions of cooking or storage and to reduce the concentration of free radicals in vivo after food ingestion. There is growing interest in natural antioxidants, and effective compounds have already been identified from antioxidant classes such as carotenoids, essential oils, flavonoids and phenolic acids. The wide variety of sample matrices and analytes presents quite a challenge for the development of analytical techniques. Growing demands have been placed on sample pretreatment. In this study, three novel extraction techniques, namely supercritical fluid extraction (SFE), pressurised hot water extraction (PHWE) and dynamic sonication-assisted extraction (DSAE) were studied. SFE was used for the extraction of lycopene from tomato skins and PHWE was used in the extraction of phenolic compounds from sage. DSAE was applied to the extraction of phenolic acids from Lamiaceae herbs. In the development of extraction methodologies, the main parameters of the extraction were studied and the recoveries were compared to those achieved by conventional extraction techniques. In addition, the stability of lycopene was also followed under different storage conditions. For the separation of the antioxidative compounds in the extracts, liquid chromatographic methods (LC) were utilised. Two novel LC techniques, namely ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) and comprehensive two-dimensional liquid chromatography (LCxLC) were studied and compared with conventional high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for the separation of antioxidants in beverages and Lamiaceae herbs. In LCxLC, the selection of LC mode, column dimensions and flow rates were studied and optimised to obtain efficient separation of the target compounds. In addition, the separation powers of HPLC, UPLC, HPLCxHPLC and HPLCxUPLC were compared. To exploit the benefits of an integrated system, in which sample preparation and final separation are performed in a closed unit, dynamic sonication-assisted extraction was coupled on-line to a liquid chromatograph via a solid-phase trap. The increased sensitivity was utilised in the extraction of phenolic acids from Lamiaceae herbs. The results were compared to those of achieved by the LCxLC system.

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The prime aim of this PhD thesis is to contribute to the current body of knowledge on the out-of-plane performance of masonry walls through systematic investigation of the key parameters and provide insight into the design clauses of Australian Masonry Standard (AS3700-2011). The research work has been carried out through numerical simulation based on a 3D layered shell element model. The model demonstrated capability to simulate various forms of new and existing masonry systems commonly constructed in Australia such as unreinforced, internally and externally reinforced, confined and dry-stack masonry. In addition, the model simultaneously simulates in-plane and out-of-plane responses.

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The remarkable geological and evolutionary history of peninsular India has generated much interest in the patterns and processes that might have shaped the current distributions of its endemic biota. In this regard the Out of India hypothesis, which proposes that rafting peninsular India carried Gondwanan forms to Asia after the break-up of Gondwana super continent, has gained prominence. Here we have reviewed molecular studies undertaken on a range of taxa of supposedly Gondwanan origin to better understand the Out-of-India scenario. This re-evaluation of published molecular studies indicates that there is mounting evidence supporting Out-of-India scenario for various Asian taxa. Nevertheless, in many studies the evidence is inconclusive due to lack of information on the age of relevant nodes. Studies also indicate that not all Gondwanan forms of peninsular India dispersed out of India. Many of these ancient lineages are confined to peninsular India and therefore are relict Gondwanan lineages. Additionally for some taxa an Into India rather than Out-of-India scenario better explains their current distribution. To identify the Out-of-India component of Asian biota it is imperative that we understand the complex biogeographical history of India. To this end, we propose three oversimplified yet explicit phylogenetic predictions. These predictions can be tested through the use of molecular phylogenetic tools in conjunction with palaeontological and geological data.

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In recent years, a number of Australian and international universities have offered the ability to complete postgraduate qualifications using the research frame known as creative practice as research. This has been particularly prevalent in the Drama discipline in the Creative Industries Faculty at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). There has been a noticeable shift away from students undertaking a traditional research Master of Arts (Research) or Doctor of Philosophy to a higher proportion of research higher degree students undertaking research through their creative work. The somewhat ephemeral nature of the theatre and performance practice can generate anxieties for students about how to best represent, analyse and discuss the creative practice within a theoretical frame. The argument in this paper is situated in the experience of two artist-scholars who undertook their studies at QUT while under principal supervision of the author and explores the research scaffolds that supervisors in Drama at QUT have developed to assist research higher degree students to navigate the tricky persona of artist–scholar.

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The outcome of the successfully resuscitated patient is mainly determined by the extent of hypoxic-ischemic cerebral injury, and hypothermia has multiple mechanisms of action in mitigating such injury. The present study was undertaken from 1997 to 2001 in Helsinki as a part of the European multicenter study Hypothermia after cardiac arrest (HACA) to test the neuroprotective effect of therapeutic hypothermia in patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital ventricular fibrillation (VF) cardiac arrest (CA). The aim of this substudy was to examine the neurological and cardiological outcome of these patients, and especially to study and develop methods for prediction of outcome in the hypothermia-treated patients. A total of 275 patients were randomized to the HACA trial in Europe. In Helsinki, 70 patients were enrolled in the study according to the inclusion criteria. Those randomized to hypothermia were actively cooled externally to a core temperature 33 ± 1ºC for 24 hours with a cooling device. Serum markers of ischemic neuronal injury, NSE and S-100B, were sampled at 24, 36, and 48 hours after CA. Somatosensory and brain stem auditory evoked potentials (SEPs and BAEPs) were recorded 24 to 28 hours after CA; 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiography recordings were performed three times during the first two weeks and arrhythmias and heart rate variability (HRV) were analyzed from the tapes. The clinical outcome was assessed 3 and 6 months after CA. Neuropsychological examinations were performed on the conscious survivors 3 months after the CA. Quantitative electroencephalography (Q-EEG) and auditory P300 event-related potentials were studied at the same time-point. Therapeutic hypothermia of 33ºC for 24 hours led to an increased chance of good neurological outcome and survival after out-of-hospital VF CA. In the HACA study, 55% of hypothermia-treated patients and 39% of normothermia-treated patients reached a good neurological outcome (p=0.009) at 6 months after CA. Use of therapeutic hypothermia was not associated with any increase in clinically significant arrhythmias. The levels of serum NSE, but not the levels of S-100B, were lower in hypothermia- than in normothermia-treated patients. A decrease in NSE values between 24 and 48 hours was associated with good outcome at 6 months after CA. Decreasing levels of serum NSE but not of S-100B over time may indicate selective attenuation of delayed neuronal death by therapeutic hypothermia, and the time-course of serum NSE between 24 and 48 hours after CA may help in clinical decision-making. In SEP recordings bilaterally absent N20 responses predicted permanent coma with a specificity of 100% in both treatment arms. Recording of BAEPs provided no additional benefit in outcome prediction. Preserved 24- to 48-hour HRV may be a predictor of favorable outcome in CA patients treated with hypothermia. At 3 months after CA, no differences appeared in any cognitive functions between the two groups: 67% of patients in the hypothermia and 44% patients in the normothermia group were cognitively intact or had only very mild impairment. No significant differences emerged in any of the Q-EEG parameters between the two groups. The amplitude of P300 potential was significantly higher in the hypothermia-treated group. These results give further support to the use of therapeutic hypothermia in patients with sudden out-of-hospital CA.