875 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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The misuse of human growth hormone (hGH) in sport is deemed to be unethical and dangerous because of various adverse effects. Thus, it has been added to the International Olympic Committee list of banned substances. Until now, the very low concentration of hGH in the urine made its measurement difficult using classical methodology. Indeed, for routine diagnosis, only plasma measurements were available. However, unlike blood samples, urine is generally provided in abundant quantities and is, at present, the only body fluid allowed to be analysed in sport doping controls. A recently developed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Norditest) makes it now possible, without any extraction, to measure urinary hGH (u-hGH) in a dynamic range of 2-50 ng hGH/l. In our protocol, untreated and treated non-athlete volunteers were followed. Some of them received therapeutical doses of recombinant hGH (Norditropin) for one week either intramuscularly (three increasing doses) or subcutaneously (12 i.u. every day). The u-hGH excretion after treatment showed dramatic increases of 50-100 times the basal values and returned to almost the mean normal level after 24 h. u-hGH was also measured in samples provided by the anti-doping controls at major and minor competitions. Depending on the type of efforts made during the competition, the hGH concentration in urine was dramatically increased. Insulin-like growth factor binding proteins and beta 2-microglobulins in urine and/or in blood could be necessary for the correct investigation of any hGH doping test procedure.

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Allergy is an immunological disorder of the upper airways, lung, skin, and the gut with a growing prevalence over the last decades in Western countries. Atopy, the genetic predisposition for allergy, is strongly dependent on familial inheritance and environmental factors. These observations call for predictive markers of progression from atopy to allergy, a prerequisite to any active intervention in neonates and children (prophylactic interventions/primary prevention) or in adults (immunomodulatory interventions/secondary prevention). In an attempt to identify early biomarkers of the "atopic march" using minimally invasive sampling, CD4+ T cells from 20 adult volunteers (10 healthy and 10 with respiratory allergies) were isolated and quantitatively analyzed and their proteomes were compared in and out of pollen season (± antigen exposure). The proteome study based on high-resolution 2D gel electrophoresis revealed three candidate protein markers that distinguish the CD4+ T cell proteomes of normal from allergic individuals when sampled out of pollen season, namely Talin 1, Nipsnap homologue 3A, and Glutamate-cysteine ligase regulatory protein. Three proteins were found differentially expressed between the CD4+ T cell proteomes of normal and allergic subjects when sampled during pollen season: carbonyl reductase, glutathione S-transferase ω 1, and 2,4-dienoyl-CoA reductase. The results were partly validated by Western blotting.

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To improve long-term survival, prompt revascularization of the infarct-related artery should be done in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI); therefore, a large proportion of these patients would be hospitalized during out of hours. The clinical effects of out-of-hours AMI management were already questioned, with conflicting results. The purpose of this investigation was to compare the in-hospital outcome of patients admitted for AMI during out of hours and working hours. All patients with AMI included in the AMIS Plus Registry from January 1, 1997, to March 30, 2006, were analyzed. The working-hours group included patients admitted from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on weekdays, and the out-of-hours group included patients admitted from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m. on weekdays or weekends. Major cardiac events were defined as cardiovascular death, reinfarction, and stroke. The study primary end points were in-hospital death and major adverse cardiac event (MACE) rates. A total of 12,480 patients met the inclusion criteria, with 52% admitted during normal working hours, and 48%, during out of hours. Patients admitted during weekdays included more women (28.1% vs 26%; p = 0.009), older patients (65.5 +/- 13 vs 64.1 +/- 13 years; p = 0.0011), less current smokers (40.1% vs 43.5%; p <0.001), and less patients with a history of ischemic heart disease (31.5% vs 34.5%; p = 0.001). A significantly higher proportion of patients admitted during out of hours had Killip's class III and IV. No differences in terms of in-hospital survival rates between the 2 groups (91.5% vs 91.2%; p = 0.633) or MACE-free survival rates (both 88.5%; p = 1.000) were noted. In conclusion, the outcome of patients with AMI admitted out of hours was the same compared with those with a weekday admission. Of predictors for in-hospital outcome, timing of admission had no significant influence on mortality and/or MACE incidence.

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Chaperonins are cage-like complexes in which nonnative polypeptides prone to aggregation are thought to reach their native state optimally. However, they also may use ATP to unfold stably bound misfolded polypeptides and mediate the out-of-cage native refolding of large proteins. Here, we show that even without ATP and GroES, both GroEL and the eukaryotic chaperonin containing t-complex polypeptide 1 (CCT/TRiC) can unfold stable misfolded polypeptide conformers and readily release them from the access ways to the cage. Reconciling earlier disparate experimental observations to ours, we present a comprehensive model whereby following unfolding on the upper cavity, in-cage confinement is not needed for the released intermediates to slowly reach their native state in solution. As over-sticky intermediates occasionally stall the catalytic unfoldase sites, GroES mobile loops and ATP are necessary to dissociate the inhibitory species and regenerate the unfolding activity. Thus, chaperonin rings are not obligate confining antiaggregation cages. They are polypeptide unfoldases that can iteratively convert stable off-pathway conformers into functional proteins.

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Investigative report produced by Iowa Citizens' Aide/Ombudsman

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Anorectal malformations (ARMs) are a complex group of congenital anomalies involving the distal anus and rectum, as well as the urinary and genital tracts in a significant number of cases. Most ARMs result from abnormal development of the urorectal septum in early fetal life. In most cases, the anus is not perforated and the distal enteric component ends blindly (atresia) or as a fistula into the urinary tract, genital tract, or perineum. ARMs are also present in a great number of syndromes and associations of congenital anomalies. The classification of ARMs is mainly based on the position of the rectal pouch relative to the puborectal sling, the presence or absence of fistulas, and the types and locations of the fistulas. All of this information is crucial in determining the most appropriate surgical approach for each case. Imaging studies play a key role in evaluation and classification of ARMs. In neonates, clinical and radiologic examinations in the first 3 days of life help determine the type of ARM and the need for early colostomy. In older children, preoperative pelvic magnetic resonance imaging is the most efficient diagnostic method for evaluating the size, morphology, and grade of development of the sphincteric musculature.

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The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Take the Scare Out of Auto Repair!

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The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Take the Scare Out of Auto Repair!

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This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

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We derive a new inequality for uniform deviations of averages from their means. The inequality is a common generalization of previous results of Vapnik and Chervonenkis (1974) and Pollard (1986). Usingthe new inequality we obtain tight bounds for empirical loss minimization learning.

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We report a 38 year-old patient who had temporoparietal epilepsy and unusual ictal "out of body" experiences that remained undiagnosed for more than ten years, until her admission for a motor seizure of the left hemibody. Out of body episodes were experienced as intense and ecstatic astral journeys. EEG showed a bilateral extension of epileptiform abnormalities to the parietal regions, predominantly on the right side. We discuss the various forms of heautoscopy and their putative mechanisms. We suggest that a disturbance in representing space in independent extrapersonal and personal coordinates might be as crucial as the elusive hypothesis of a body schema disorder. Combined involvement of the parietal neocortex and temporolimbic structures might allow those experiences to gain a subjective vividness which appears to be indissociable from normal conscious experiences.

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In the 2006 Iowa General Assembly, House File 2797 called for a study on the status of afterschool arts programs and appropriated $5,000 for the study. In accordance with the legislation, the Iowa Arts Council, who received the charge, contracted with the Iowa Afterschool Alliance to form a Resource Group of out-of-school arts providers and experts to develop and oversee the study, review its results, and make recommendations for the expansion of arts programs that operate outside the normal school day. As a part of its charge in HF 2797, the Iowa Arts Council also documented a sampling of out-of-school arts programs statewide. Five are featured in this report.