Sedentariness and physical inactivity in diabetes: a case for home-based exercise prescription

Increasing proportions of the global population are being diagnosed with diabetes. It is anticipated that by 2030, 10% of the adult population worldwide will be living with this condition. Lifestyle factors can impact on the development, management and progression of diabetes. Obesity and sedentary living are contributory factors to the increased volume of diabetes. Physical activity offers those living with diabetes the opportunities to keep well and attain potentially more stable blood glucose control reducing the level of medical intervention required and delaying or preventing some of the life-changing complications that can derive from a diabetes diagnosis. Exercise interventions are effective in preventing and treating type-II diabetes. However, maintaining regular exercise routines, especially home-based exercises may provide a key for sustaining the health benefits.

Inflammation markers are associated with Cardiovascular diseases risk in adolescents The Young Hearts Project 2000

Purose: The traditional approach for identifying subjects at risk from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is to determine the extent of clustering of biological risk factors adjusted for lifestyle. Recently, markers of endothelial dysfunction and low grade inflammation, including high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), soluble intercellular adhesion molecules (sICAM), and soluble vascular adhesion molecules (sVCAM), have been included in the detection for high risk individuals. However, the relationship of these novel biomarkers with CVD risk in adolescents remains unclear. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to establish the association of hsCRP, sICAM, and sVCAM with CVD risk in an adolescent population.
Methods: Data from the Young Hearts 2000 cross-sectional cohort study, carried out in 1999-2001, were used. From a total of 2,017 male and female participants, 95 obese subjects were identified and matched according to age, sex, and cigarette smoking, with 95 overweight and 95 normal-weight adolescents. Clustered CVD risk was computed using a sum of Z-scores of biological risk factors. The relationship was described using multiple linear regression analyses.
Results: hsCRP, sICAM, and sVCAM showed significant associations with CVD risk. hsCRP and sICAM had a positive relation with CVD risk, whereas sVCAM showed an inverse relationship. In this study, lifestyle factors showed no relation with CVD risk.
Conclusion: The results fit the hypothesized role of low grade inflammation and endothelial dysfunction in CVD risk in asymptomatic adolescents. The inverse relationship of VCAM, however, is hard to explain and indicates the complex mechanisms underlying CVD. Further research is needed to draw firm conclusions on the biomarkers used.

Concomitant and antecedent deep venous thrombosis and cancer survival in male US veterans

Survival is reportedly worse in patients with cancer concurrently diagnosed with deep venous thrombosis. However, information on specific malignancies is limited. From a cohort study of male US veterans we identified incident cancer cases (n aEuroS== aEuroS412 008) and compared survival patterns among those with versus without a history of deep venous thrombosis. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95%% confidence intervals as measures of the relative risk of dying. Individuals with (versus without) a concomitant deep venous thrombosis and cancer diagnosis had a higher risk of dying (HR aEuroS== aEuroS1.38; 1.28--1.49). The most prominent excess mortality (HR aEuroS== aEuroS1.29--2.55) was observed among patients diagnosed with deep venous thrombosis at the time of diagnosis of lung, gastric, prostate, bladder, or kidney cancer. Increased risk of dying was also found among cancer patients diagnosed with deep venous thrombosis 1 year (HR aEuroS== aEuroS1.14; 1.07--1.22), 1--5 years (HR aEuroS== aEuroS1.14; 1.10--1.19), and > 5 years (HR aEuroS== aEuroS1.27; 1.23--1.31) before cancer; this was true for most cancer sites (HR aEuroS== aEuroS1.17--1.64). In summary, antecedent deep venous thrombosis confers a worse prognosis upon cancer patients. Advanced stage at diagnosis, treatment effects, lifestyle factors, and comorbidity could explain differences by cancer site and time frame between a prior deep venous thrombosis diagnosis and cancer outcome.

The renin-angiotensin system and antihypertensive drugs in Alzheimer's disease:current standing of the angiotensin hypothesis?

There is an urgent need to improve upon Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatments. Limitations of existing drugs are that they target specific downstream neurochemical abnormalities while the upstream underlying pathology continues unchecked. Preferable treatments would be those that can target a number of the broad range of molecular and cellular abnormalities that occur in AD such as amyloid-ß (Aß) and hyperphosphorylated tau-mediated damage, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction, as well more systemic abnormalities such as brain atrophy, impaired cerebral blood flow (CBF), and cerebrovascular disease. Recent pre-clinical, epidemiological, and a limited number of clinical investigations have shown that prevention of the signaling of the multifunctional and potent vasoconstrictor angiotensin II (Ang II) may offer broad benefits in AD. In addition to helping to ameliorate co-morbid hypertension, these drugs also likely improve diminished CBF which is common in AD and can contribute to focal Aß pathology. These drugs, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, or angiotensin receptor antagonists (ARAs) may also help deteriorating cognitive function by preventing Ang II-mediated inhibition of acetylcholine release as well as interrupt the upregulation of deleterious inflammatory pathways that are widely recognized in AD. Given the current urgency to find better treatments for AD and the relatively immediate availability of drugs that are already widely prescribed for the treatment of hypertension, one of the largest modifiable risk factors for AD, this article reviews current knowledge as to the eligibility of ACE-inhibitors and ARAs for consideration in future clinical trials in AD.

Association of physical activity with future mental health in older, mid-life and younger women

Background: Mental ill-health, particularly depression and anxiety, is a leading and increasing cause of disability worldwide, especially for women.

Methods: We examined the prospective association between physical activity and symptoms of mental ill-health in younger, mid-life and older working women. Participants were 26 913 women from the ongoing cohort Finnish Public Sector Study with complete data at two phases, excluding those who screened positive for mental ill-health at baseline. Mental health was assessed using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire. Self-reported physical activity was expressed in metabolic equivalent task (MET) hours per week. Logistic regression models were used to analyse associations between physical activity levels and subsequent mental health.

Results: There was an inverse dose–response relationship between physical activity and future symptoms of mental ill-health. This association is consistent with a protective effect of physical activity and remained after adjustments for socio-demographic, work-related and lifestyle factors, health and body mass index. Furthermore, those mid-life and older women who reported increased physical activity by more than 2 MET hours per week demonstrated a reduced risk of later mental ill-health in comparison with those who did not increase physical activity. This protective effect of increased physical activity did not hold for younger women.

Conclusions: This study adds to the evidence for the protective effect of physical activity for later mental health in women. It also suggests that increasing physical activity levels may be beneficial in terms of mental health among mid-life and older women. The alleviation of menopausal symptoms may partly explain age effects but further research is required.

A Posteriori Dietary Patterns Are Related to Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Findings from a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Our review and meta-analysis examined the association between a posteriori–derived dietary patterns (DPs) and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for articles published up to July 2012 and data were extracted by two independent reviewers. Overall, 19 cross-sectional, 12 prospective cohort, and two nested case-control studies were eligible for inclusion. Results from cross-sectional studies reported an inconsistent association between DPs and measures of insulin resistance and/or glucose abnormalities, or prevalence of type 2 diabetes. A meta-analysis was carried out on nine prospective cohort studies that had examined DPs derived by principle component/factor analysis and incidence of type 2 diabetes risk (totaling 309,430 participants and 16,644 incident cases). Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. Two broad DPs (Healthy/Prudent and Unhealthy/Western) were identified based on food factor loadings published in original studies. Pooled results indicated a 15% lower type 2 diabetes risk for those in the highest category of Healthy/Prudent pattern compared with those in the lowest category (95% CI 0.80 to 0.91; P<0.0001). Compared with the lowest category of Unhealthy/Western DP, those in the highest category had a 41% increased risk of type 2 diabetes (95% CI 1.32 to 1.52; P<0.0001). These results provide evidence that DPs are consistently associated with risk of type 2 diabetes even when other lifestyle factors are controlled for. Thus, greater adherence to a DP characterized by high intakes of fruit, vegetables, and complex carbohydrate and low intakes of refined carbohydrate, processed meat, and fried food may be one strategy that could have a positive influence on the global public health burden of type 2 diabetes.

The DietCompLyf study: A prospective cohort study of breast cancer survival and phytoestrogen consumption

DietCompLyf is a multi-centre prospective study designed to investigate associations between phytoestrogens - naturally occurring plant compounds with oestrogenic properties - and other diet and lifestyle factors with breast cancer recurrence and survival. 3159 women with grades I-III breast cancer were recruited 9-15 months post-diagnosis from 56 UK hospitals. Detailed information on clinico-pathological, diet, lifestyle and quality of life is collected annually up to 5 years. Biological samples have also been collected as a resource for subsequent evaluation. The characteristics of the patients and associations between pre-diagnosis intake of phytoestrogens (isoflavones and lignans; assessed using the EPIC-Norfolk UK 130 question food frequency questionnaire) and breast cancer (i) risk factors and (ii) prognostic factors are described for 1797 women who had complete data for all covariates and phytoestrogens of interest. Isoflavone intakes were higher in the patients who were younger at diagnosis, in the non-smokers, those who had breast-fed and those who took supplements. Lignan intakes were higher in patients with a higher age at diagnosis, in ex-smokers, those who had breast-fed, who took supplements, had a lower BMI at diagnosis, lower age at menarche and were nulliparous. No significant associations between pre-diagnosis phytoestrogen intake and factors associated with improved breast cancer prognosis were observed. The potential for further exploration of the relationship between phytoestrogens and breast cancer recurrence and survival, and for the establishment of evidence to improve dietary and lifestyle advice offered to patients following breast cancer diagnosis using DietCompLyf data is discussed.

In utero exposure to cigarette chemicals induces sex-specific disruption of one-carbon metabolism and DNA methylation in the human fetal liver

Background: Maternal smoking is one of the most important modifiable risk factors for low birthweight, which is strongly associated with increased cardiometabolic disease risk in adulthood. Maternal smoking reduces the levels of the methyl donor vitamin B12 and is associated with altered DNA methylation at birth. Altered DNA methylation may be an important mechanism underlying increased disease susceptibility; however, the extent to which this can be induced in the developing fetus is unknown.

Methods: In this retrospective study, we measured concentrations of cobalt, vitamin B12, and mRNA transcripts encoding key enzymes in the 1-carbon cycle in 55 fetal human livers obtained from 11 to 21 weeks of gestation elective terminations and matched for gestation and maternal smoking. DNA methylation was measured at critical regions known to be susceptible to the in utero environment. Homocysteine concentrations were analyzed in plasma from 60 fetuses.

Results: In addition to identifying baseline sex differences, we found that maternal smoking was associated with sex-specific alterations of fetal liver vitamin B12, plasma homocysteine and expression of enzymes in the 1-carbon cycle in fetal liver. In the majority of the measured parameters which showed a sex difference, maternal smoking reduced the magnitude of that difference. Maternal smoking also altered DNA methylation at the imprinted gene IGF2 and the glucocorticoid receptor (GR/NR3C1).

Conclusions: Our unique data strengthen studies linking in utero exposures to altered DNA methylation by showing, for the first time, that such changes are present in fetal life and in a key metabolic target tissue, human fetal liver. Furthermore, these data propose a novel mechanism by which such changes are induced, namely through alterations in methyl donor availability and changes in 1-carbon metabolism.

Adherence to treatment in children and adolescents with cystic fibrosis: a cross-sectional, multi-method study investigating the influence of beliefs about treatment and parental depressive symptoms

BACKGROUND: Adherence to treatment is often reported to be low in children with cystic fibrosis. Adherence in cystic fibrosis is an important research area and more research is needed to better understand family barriers to adherence in order for clinicians to provide appropriate intervention. The aim of this study was to evaluate adherence to enzyme supplements, vitamins and chest physiotherapy in children with cystic fibrosis and to determine if any modifiable risk factors are associated with adherence.

METHODS: A sample of 100 children (≤18 years) with cystic fibrosis (44 male; median [range] 10.1 [0.2-18.6] years) and their parents were recruited to the study from the Northern Ireland Paediatric Cystic Fibrosis Centre. Adherence to enzyme supplements, vitamins and chest physiotherapy was assessed using a multi-method approach including; Medication Adherence Report Scale, pharmacy prescription refill data and general practitioner prescription issue data. Beliefs about treatments were assessed using refined versions of the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire-specific. Parental depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale.

RESULTS: Using the multi-method approach 72% of children were classified as low-adherers to enzyme supplements, 59% low-adherers to vitamins and 49% low-adherers to chest physiotherapy. Variations in adherence were observed between measurement methods, treatments and respondents. Parental necessity beliefs and child age were significant independent predictors of child adherence to enzyme supplements and chest physiotherapy, but parental depressive symptoms were not found to be predictive of adherence.

CONCLUSIONS: Child age and parental beliefs about treatments should be taken into account by clinicians when addressing adherence at routine clinic appointments. Low adherence is more likely to occur in older children, whereas, better adherence to cystic fibrosis therapies is more likely in children whose parents strongly believe the treatments are necessary. The necessity of treatments should be reinforced regularly to both parents and children.

Nanosensor for assessing the risk of a cardiovascular disease

The incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) has been increasing according to the European and global statistics. Thus, the development of new analytical devices, such as biosensors for assessing the risk of CVD could become a valuable approach for the improvement of healthcare service. In latest years, the nanotechnology has provided new materials with improved electronic properties which have an important contribution in the transduction mechanism of biosensors. Thus, in this thesis, biosensors based on field effect transistors with single-walled carbon nanotubes (NTFET) were developed for the detection of C-reactive protein (CRP) in clinical samples, that is, blood serum and saliva from a group of control patients and a group of CVD risk patients. CRP is an acute-phase protein, which is commonly known as the best validated biomarker for the assessment of CVD, the single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT) were applied as transduction components, and the immunoreaction (interaction between the CRP antigen and the antibodies specific to CRP) was used as the mechanism of molecular recognition for the label-free detection of CRP. After the microfabrication of field effect transistors (FET), the screening of the most important variables for the dispersion of SWCNT, the assemblage of NTFET, and their application on standard solutions of CRP, it was found that NTFET respond accurately to CRP both in saliva and in serum samples, since similar CRP levels were found with the NTFET and the traditional methodology (ELISA technique). On the other hand, a strong correlation between salivary and serum CRP was found with NTFET, which means that saliva could be used, based on non-invasive sampling, as an alternative fluid to blood serum. It was also shown that NTFET could discriminate control patients from CVD risk patients, allowing the determination of a cut-off value for salivary CRP of 1900 ng L-1, which corresponds to the well established cut-off of 3 mg L-1 for CRP in serum, constituting an important finding for the possible establishment of a new range of CRP levels based on saliva. According to the data provided from the volunteer patients regarding their lipoprotein profile and lifestyle factors, it was concluded that the control and the CVD risk patients could be separated taking into account the various risk factors established in literature as strong contributors for developing a CVD, such as triglycerides, serum CRP, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, body mass index, Framingham risk score, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus. Thus, this work could provide an additional contribution to the understanding of the association of biomarkers levels in serum and saliva samples, and above all, cost-effective, rapid, label-free, and disposable NTFET were developed, based on a noninvasive sampling, for the assessment of CVD risk, thus constituting a potential point-of-care technology.

Motor delays in MDMA (ecstasy) exposed infants persist to 2years

Background Recreational use of 3,4 methylenedioxymethamphetamine (ecstasy, MDMA) is increasing worldwide. Its use by pregnant women causes concern due to potentially harmful effects on the developing fetus. MDMA, an indirect monoaminergic agonist and reuptake inhibitor, affects the serotonin and dopamine systems. Preclinical studies of fetal exposure demonstrate effects on learning, motor behavior, and memory. In the first human studies, we found prenatal MDMA exposure related to poorer motor development in the first year of life. In the present study we assessed the effects of prenatal exposure to MDMA on the trajectory of child development through 2 years of age. We hypothesized that exposure would be associated with poorer mental and motor outcomes. Materials and Methods The DAISY (Drugs and Infancy Study, 2003–2008) employed a prospective longitudinal cohort design to assess recreational drug use during pregnancy and child outcomes in the United Kingdom. Examiners masked to drug exposures followed infants from birth to 4, 12, 18, and 24 months of age. MDMA, cocaine, alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and other drugs were quantified through a standardized clinical interview. The Bayley Scales (III) of Mental (MDI) and Motor (PDI) Development and the Behavior Rating Scales (BRS) were primary outcome measures. Statistical analyses included a repeated measures mixed model approach controlling for multiple confounders. Results Participants were pregnant women volunteers, primarily white, of middle class socioeconomic status, average IQ, with some college education, in stable partner relationships. Of 96 women enrolled, children of 93 had at least one follow-up assessment and 81 (87%) had ≥ two assessments. Heavier MDMA exposure (M = 1.3 ± 1.4 tablets per week) predicted lower PDI (p < .002), and poorer BRS motor quality from 4 to 24 months of age, but did not affect MDI, orientation, or emotional regulation. Children with heavier exposure were twice as likely to demonstrate poorer motor quality as lighter and non-exposed children (O.R. = 2.2, 95%, CI = 1.02–4.70, p < .05). Discussion Infants whose mothers reported heavier MDMA use during pregnancy had motor delays from 4 months to two years of age that were not attributable to other drug or lifestyle factors. Women of child bearing age should be cautioned about the use of MDMA and MDMA-exposed infants should be screened for motor delays and possible intervention.

Human biomonitoring : biomarkers, individual susceptibility, and nutrigenetics

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Genética), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015

Cadherin-5: a biomarker for metastatic breast cancer with optimum efficacy in oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancers with vascular invasion

Background: A glycoproteomic study has previously shown cadherin-5 (CDH5) to be a serological marker of metastatic breast cancer when both protein levels and glycosylation status were assessed. In this study we aimed to further validate the utility of CDH5 as a biomarker for breast cancer progression. Methods: A nested case–control study of serum samples from breast cancer patients, of which n=52 had developed a distant metastatic recurrence within 5 years post-diagnosis and n=60 had remained recurrence-free. ELISAs were used to quantify patient serum CDH5 levels and assess glycosylation by Helix pomatia agglutinin (HPA) binding. Clinicopathological, treatment and lifestyle factors associated with metastasis and elevated biomarker levels were identified. Results: Elevated CDH5 levels (P=0.028) and ratios of CDH5:HPA binding (P=0.007) distinguished patients with metastatic disease from those that remained metastasis-free. Multivariate analysis showed that the association between CDH5:HPA ratio and the formation of distant metastases was driven by patients with oestrogen receptor (ER+) positive cancer with vascular invasion (VI+). Conclusions: CDH5 levels and the CDH5 glycosylation represent biomarker tests that distinguish patients with metastatic breast cancer from those that remain metastasis-free. The test reached optimal sensitivity and specificity in ER-positive cancers with vascular invasion.

Relação entre despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações : análise da base de dados da OCDE 2012

RESUMO - Introdução: A despesa em saúde aumentou consideravelmente nas últimas décadas na maioria dos países industrializados. Por outro lado, os indicadores de saúde melhoraram. A evidência empírica sobre a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações tem sido inconclusiva. Este estudo aborda a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações através de dados agregados para 34 países para o período 1980-2010. Metodologia: Utilizou-se o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson para avaliar a correlação entre as variáveis explicativas e os indicadores de saúde. Procedeuse ainda à realização de uma regressão multivariada com dados em painel para cada indicador de saúde utilizado como variável dependente: esperança de vida à nascença e aos 65 anos para mulheres e homens, anos de vida potencialmente perdidos para mulheres e homens e mortalidade infantil. A principal variável explicativa utilizada foi a despesa em saúde, mas consideraram-se também vários fatores de confundimento, nomeadamente a riqueza, fatores estilo de vida, e oferta de cuidados. Resultados: A despesa per capita tem impacto nos indicadores de saúde mas ao adicionarmos a variável PIB per capita deixa de ser estatisticamente significativa. Outros fatores têm um impacto significativo para quase todos os indicadores de saúde utilizados: consumo de álcool e tabaco, gordura, o número de médicos e a imunização, confirmando vários resultados da literatura. Conclusão: Os resultados vão ao encontro de alguns estudos que afirmam o impacto marginal das despesas em saúde e do progresso da medicina nos resultados em saúde desde os anos 80 nos países industrializados.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.