The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Cooperative learning in the ESL classroom

This research explores the advantages and disadvantages of collaborative learning departing from two different methodological studies. In the first one, we will go deep into the reflections about group work of a student-teacher in her first experiences during a two months practicum in Sabadell's Emily Bronte. In the second one, we will analyze in a more empirical way the interaction that takes place among a trio of students engaged in a question-answering task about a text based on a three minutes vignette recorded on January 2010

Slope processes in changing permafrost environments: a geomorphological and sedimentological approach

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada al Centro de Estudos Geograficos de la Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal, entre 2011 i 2012. En aquest grup he desenvolupat la meva recerca focalitzada en ambients polars en presència de permafrost, concretament centrada en l’extrem nord-occidental de la Península Antàrtica (Shetland del Sud) i a l’Alt Àrtic (Svalvard). Ambdós àrees han registrat un augment de temperatura molt significatiu les darreres dècades. La meva recerca ha contemplat l’anàlisi de registres sedimentaris (lacustres, eòlics, vessant) i la monitorització de processos geomorfològics actuals a fi efecte d’entendre la dinàmica ambiental present i passada (i.e. clima). Amb aquesta finalitat he realitzat tres campanyes de treball de camp a l’Antàrtida i dues a l’Àrtic. El posterior treball de laboratori i d’oficina està propiciant nombroses publicacions que donen fe dels èxits assolits. A més, cal enfatitzar altres activitats desenvolupades durant la BP-A: coneixement de com organitzar i gestionar una campanya antàrtica, docència universitària, participació en comitès, associacions i tribunals de tesis doctorals, organització i participació en nombroses conferències, treball de camp en noves àrees d’estudi, referee per revistes internacionals, etc. Tanmateix, la concessió del projecte de recerca HOLOANTAR, del qual en sóc l’Investigador Responsable, ha estat l’èxit més important d’aquesta estada. Aquest projecte m’està conferint la capacitat de gestionar i integrar la recerca de 16 investigadors de diferents nacionalitats des d’una perspectiva multidisciplinar. Tothora, cal remarcar que no s’ha assolit un dels èxits que pretenia el meu projecte de BP-A: la transferència del bagatge i coneixement adquirit al sistema de recerca català. Malgrat haver presentat la meva candidatura per un contracte BP-B per tal que aquest background après a l’estranger revertís a Catalunya, el procés de selecció emprat en la convocatòria ho ha impedit i m’obliga a continuar la meva recerca a l’estranger.

Collage, a Collaborative Learning Design Editor Based on Patterns

This paper introduces Collage, a high-level IMS-LD compliant authoring tool that is specialized for CSCL (Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning). Nowadays CSCL is a key trend in elearning since it highlights the importance of social interactions as an essential element of learning. CSCL is an interdisciplinary domain, which demands participatory design techniques that allow teachers to get directly involved in design activities. Developing CSCL designs using LD is a difficult task for teachers since LD is a complex technical specification and modelling collaborative characteristics can be tricky. Collage helps teachers in the process of creating their own potentially effective collaborative Learning Designs by reusing and customizing patterns, according to the requirements of a particular learning situation. These patterns, called Collaborative Learning Flow Patterns (CLFPs), represent best practices that are repetitively used by practitioners when structuring the flow of (collaborative) learning activities. An example of an LD that can be created using Collage is illustrated in the paper. Preliminary evaluation results show that teachers, with experience in CL but without LD knowledge, can successfully design real collaborative learning experiences using Collage.

A pseudo-spectral method for simulating of poro-elastic seismic wave propagation in complex borehole environments

We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in cylindrical coordinates. An important application of this method is the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh consisting of three concentric domains representing the borehole fluid in the center, the borehole casing and the surrounding porous formation. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction, Fourier expansions in the other directions, and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method based on the method of characteristics is used to match the boundary conditions at the fluid/porous-solid and porous-solid/porous-solid interfaces. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been tested and verified in 2D polar coordinates through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently benchmarked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. The proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is handled adequately.

Exposure to superfluous information reduces cooperation and increases antisocial punishment in reputation-based interactions

Human cooperation is often based on reputation gained from previous interactions with third parties. Such reputation can be built on generous or punitive actions, and both, one's own reputation and the reputation of others have been shown to influence decision making in experimental games that control for confounding variables. Here we test how reputation-based cooperation and punishment react to disruption of the cognitive processing in different kinds of helping games with observers. Saying a few superfluous words before each interaction was used to possibly interfere with working memory. In a first set of experiments, where reputation could only be based on generosity, the disruption reduced the frequency of cooperation and lowered mean final payoffs. In a second set of experiments where reputation could only be based on punishment, the disruption increased the frequency of antisocial punishment (i.e. of punishing those who helped) and reduced the frequency of punishing defectors. Our findings suggest that working memory can easily be constraining in reputation-based interactions within experimental games, even if these games are based on a few simple rules with a visual display that provides all the information the subjects need to play the strategies predicted from current theory. Our findings also highlight a weakness of experimental games, namely that they can be very sensitive to environmental variation and that quantitative conclusions about antisocial punishment or other behavioral strategies can easily be misleading.

The handaxe and the microscope: individual and social learning in a multidimensional model of adaptation

When individuals learn by trial-and-error, they perform randomly chosen actions and then reinforce those actions that led to a high payoff. However, individuals do not always have to physically perform an action in order to evaluate its consequences. Rather, they may be able to mentally simulate actions and their consequences without actually performing them. Such fictitious learners can select actions with high payoffs without making long chains of trial-and-error learning. Here, we analyze the evolution of an n-dimensional cultural trait (or artifact) by learning, in a payoff landscape with a single optimum. We derive the stochastic learning dynamics of the distance to the optimum in trait space when choice between alternative artifacts follows the standard logit choice rule. We show that for both trial-and-error and fictitious learners, the learning dynamics stabilize at an approximate distance of root n/(2 lambda(e)) away from the optimum, where lambda(e) is an effective learning performance parameter depending on the learning rule under scrutiny. Individual learners are thus unlikely to reach the optimum when traits are complex (n large), and so face a barrier to further improvement of the artifact. We show, however, that this barrier can be significantly reduced in a large population of learners performing payoff-biased social learning, in which case lambda(e) becomes proportional to population size. Overall, our results illustrate the effects of errors in learning, levels of cognition, and population size for the evolution of complex cultural traits. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

QTL mapping for protein content in soybean cultivated in two tropical environments

The objectives of this study were to detect quantitative trait loci (QTL) for protein content in soybean grown in two distinct tropical environments and to build a genetic map for protein content. One hundred eighteen soybean recombinant inbred lines (RIL), obtained from a cross between cultivars BARC 8 and Garimpo, were used. The RIL were cultivated in two distinct Brazilian tropical environments: Cascavel county, in Paraná, and Viçosa county, in Minas Gerais (24º57'S, 53º27'W and 20º45'S, 42º52'W, respectively). Sixty-six SSR primer pairs and 65 RAPD primers were polymorphic and segregated at a 1:1 proportion. Thirty poorly saturated linkage groups were obtained, with 90 markers and 41 nonlinked markers. For the lines cultivated in Cascavel, three QTL were mapped in C2, E and N linkage groups, which explained 14.37, 10.31 and 7.34% of the phenotypic variation of protein content, respectively. For the lines cultivated in Viçosa, two QTL were mapped in linkage groups G and #1, which explained 9.51 and 7.34% of the phenotypic variation of protein content. Based on the mean of the two environments, two QTL were identified: one in the linkage group E (9.90%) and other in the group L (7.11%). In order for future studies to consistently detect QTL effects of different environments, genotypes with greater stability should be used.

Place illusion and plausibility can lead to realistic behaviour in immersive virtual environments

In this paper address we the question as to why participants tend to respond realistically to situations and events portrayed within an Immersive Virtual Reality (IVR) system. The idea is put forward, based on experience of a large number of experimental studies, that there are two orthogonal components that contribute to this realistic response. The first is"being there", often called"presence", the qualia of having a sensation of being in a real place. We call this Place Illusion (PI). Second, Plausibility Illusion (Psi) refers to the illusion that the scenario being depicted is actually occurring. In the case of both PI and Psi the participant knows for sure that that they are not"there" and that the events are not occurring. PI is constrained by the sensorimotor contingencies afforded by the virtual reality system. Psi is determined by the extent to which the system can produce events that directly relate to the participant, and the overall credibility of the scenario being depicted in comparison with expectations. We argue that when both PI and Psi occur, participants will respond realistically to the virtual reality.

Learning in Product Development Projects - Responding to challenges in global industrial company

Verkostoitunut kansainvälinen tuotekehitys on tärkeä osa menestystä nykypäivän muuttuvassa yritysmaailmassa. Toimintojen tehostamiseksi myös projektitoiminnot on sopeutettava kansainväliseen toimintaympäristöön. Kilpailukyvyn säilyttämiseksi projektitoimintoja on lisäksi jatkuvasti tehostettava. Yhtenäkeinona nähdään projektioppiminen, jota voidaan edistää monin eri tavoin. Tässätyössä keskitytään projektitiedonhallinnan kehittämisen tuomiin oppimismahdollisuuksiin. Kirjallisuudessa kerrotaan, että projektitiedon jakaminen ja sen hyödyntäminen seuraavissa projekteissa on eräs projektioppimisen edellytyksistä. Tämäon otettu keskeiseksi näkökulmaksi tässä tutkimuksessa. Lisäksi tutkimusalueen rajaamiseksi työ tarkastelee erityisesti projektioppimista kansainvälisten tuotekehitysprojektien välillä. Työn tavoitteena on esitellä keskeisiä projektioppimisen haasteita ja etsiä konkreettinen ratkaisu vastaamaan näihin haasteisiin. Tuotekehitystoiminnot ja kansainvälinen hajautettu projektiorganisaatio kohtaavat lisäksi erityisiä haasteita, kuten tiedon hajautuneisuus, projektihenkilöstön vaihtuvuus, tiedon luottamuksellisuus ja maantieteelliset haasteet (esim. aikavyöhykkeet ja toimipisteen sijainti). Nämä erityishaasteet on otettu huomioon ratkaisua etsittäessä. Haasteisiin päädyttiin vastaamaan tietotekniikkapohjaisella ratkaisulla, joka suunniteltiin erityisesti huomioiden esimerkkiorganisaation tarpeet ja haasteet. Työssä tarkastellaan suunnitellun ratkaisun vaikutusta projektioppimiseen ja kuinka se vastaa havaittuihin haasteisiin. Tuloksissa huomattiin, että projektioppimista tapahtui, vaikka oppimista oli vaikea suoranaisesti huomata tutkimusorganisaation jäsenten keskuudessa. Projektioppimista voidaan kuitenkin sanoa tapahtuvan, jos projektitieto on helposti koko projektiryhmän saatavilla ja se on hyvin järjesteltyä. Muun muassa nämä ehdot täyttyivät. Projektioppiminen nähdään yleisesti haastavana kehitysalueena esimerkkiorganisaatiossa. Suuri osa tietämyksestä on niin sanottua hiljaistatietoa, jota on hankala tai mahdoton saattaa kirjalliseen muotoon. Näin olleen tiedon siirtäminen jää suurelta osin henkilökohtaisen vuorovaikutuksen varaan. Siitä huolimatta projektioppimista on mahdollista kehittää erilaisin toimintamallein ja menetelmin. Kehitys vaatii kuitenkin resursseja, pitkäjänteisyyttä ja aikaa. Monet muutokset voivat vaatia myös organisaatiokulttuurin muutoksen ja vaikuttamista organisaation jäseniin. Motivaatio, positiiviset mielikuvat ja selkeät strategiset tavoitteet luovat vakaan pohjan projektioppimisen kehittämiselle.

Literature report : a review of policy learning in five strands of political science research

This paper reviews the policy learning literature in political science. In recent years, the number of publications on learning in the political realm increased dramatically. Researchers have focused on how policymakers and administrators adapt policies based on learning processes or experiences. Thereby, learning has been discussed in very different ways. Authors have referred to learning in the context of ideas, understood as deeply held beliefs, and, as change and adaptation of policy instruments. Two other strands of literature have taken into consideration learning, namely the diffusion literature and research on transfer, which put forward learning to understand who learns from whom and what. Opposed to these views, political learning emphasizes the adaptation of new strategies by policymakers over the transfer of knowledge or broad ideas. In this approach, learning occurs due to the failure of existing policies, increasing problem pressure, scientific innovations, or a combination of these elements.

Policy learning in Europe : social policy and labour market reforms in 11 countries

This report compares policy learning processes in 11 European countries. Based on the country reports that were produced by the national teams of the INSPIRES project, this paper develops an argument that connects problem pressure and politicization to learning in different labor market innovations. In short, we argue that learning efforts are most likely to impact on policy change if there is a certain problem pressure that clearly necessitates political action. On the other hand, if problem pressure is very low, or so high that governments need to react immediately, chances are low that learning impacts on policy change. The second part of our argument contends that learning impacts on policy change especially if a problem is not very politicized, i.e. there are no main conflicts concerning a reform, because then, solutions are wound up in the search for a compromise. Our results confirm our first hypothesis regarding the connection between problem pressure and policy learning. Governments learn indeed up to a certain degree of problem pressure. However, once political action becomes really urgent, i.e. in anti-crisis policies, there is no time and room for learning. On the other hand, learning occurred independently from the politicization of problem. In fact, in countries that have a consensual political system, learning occurred before the decision on a reform, whereas in majoritarian systems, learning happened after the adoption of a policy during the process of implementation.

El aprendizaje reflexivo en la formación inicial del profesorado: un modelo para aprender a enseñar matemáticas = Reflective learning in the early formation of teachers: a model to learn to teach maths

In this study we analize the application of the reflective learning during initial formation mathematics teachers. This model is based on the sociocultural theories of the human learning and assumes that the interaction and the contrast make possible the coconstruction and the active reconstruction of knowledge.In order to make the study, it was left from a sample of 29 teaching students. The qualitative analysis allowed to identify factors that facilitate the incorporation of the reflective learning in university teaching, as well as the degree of effectiveness of this model to learn to teach mathematics

Reflective Learning in Higher Education: A Comparative Analysis

A descriptive, exploratory study is presented based on a questionnaire regarding the following aspects of reflective learning: a) self-knowledge, b) relating experience to knowledge, c) self-reflection, and d) self-regulation of the learning processes. The questionnaire was completed by students studying four different degree courses (social education, environmental sciences, nursing, and psychology). Specifically, the objectives of a self-reported reflective learning questionnaire are: i) to determine students’ appraisal of reflective learning methodology with regard to their reflective learning processes, ii) to obtain evidence of the main difficulties encountered by students in integrating reflective learning methodologies into their reflective learning processes, and iii) to collect students’ perceptions regarding the main contributions of the reflective learning processes they have experienced