Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The fi rst is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature.

A educação infantil e as práticas escolarizadas de educação: o caso de uma EMEI de Marília-SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

TSDEAI Extended

Questa tesi riguarda lo sviluppo di un'applicazione che sfrutta le tecnologie del Web Semantico e del Text Mining. L'applicazione rappresenta l'estensione di un lavoro relativo ad una tesi precedente, aggiungendo ad esso la funzionalità di ricerca semantica. Tale funzionalità permette il recupero di informazioni che con il metodo di ricerca normale non verrebbero considerate. Per raggiungere questo risultato si utilizza WordNet, un database semantico-lessicale, e una libreria per la Latent Semantic Analysis, una tecnica del Text Mining.

Identifying Distinct Quitting Trajectories after an Unassisted Smoking Cessation Attempt: An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study

Objectives: This study aimed at identifying distinct quitting trajectories over 29 days after an unassisted smoking ces- sation attempt by ecological momentary assessment (EMA). In order to validate these trajectories we tested if they predict smoking frequency up to six months later. Methods: EMA via mobile phones was used to collect real time data on smoking (yes/no) after an unassisted quit attempt over 29 days. Smoking frequency one, three and six months after the quit attempt was assessed with online questionnaires. Latent class growth modeling was used to analyze the data of 230 self-quitters. Results: Four different quitting trajectories emerged: quitter (43.9%), late quitter (11.3%), returner (17%) and persistent smoker (27.8%). The quitting trajectories predicted smoking frequency one, three and six months after the quit attempt (all p < 0.001). Conclusions: Outcome after a smoking cessation attempt is better described by four distinct trajectories instead of a binary variable for abstinence or relapse. In line with the relapse model by Marlatt and Gordon, late quitter may have learned how to cope with lapses during one month after the quitting attempt. This group would have been allocated to the relapse group in traditional outcome studies.

Patterns of psychological adaptation to divorce

Despite the increase in divorces after a long relationship, this trend remains a neglected research topic. The present contribution seeks to identify patterns of psychological adaptation to divorce after a long-term marriage. Data from a questionnaire study with 308 persons aged 45–65 years, who divorced after having been married for an average of 25 years, are presented. Exploratory latent profile analysis with various well-being outcomes revealed five groups: one with average adapted, one with resilients, and three small groups with seriously affected individuals. Discriminant variables between the groups were personality, time since separation, a new relationship, and financial situation. Age, gender, and length of marriage played a marginal role; satisfaction with the former marriage and initiator status were not relevant.

Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracies for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae Accounting for the Complexities of Population Structure in Food Animals

For swine dysentery, which is caused by Brachyspira hyodysenteriae infection and is an economically important disease in intensive pig production systems worldwide, a perfect or error-free diagnostic test ("gold standard") is not available. In the absence of a gold standard, Bayesian latent class modelling is a well-established methodology for robust diagnostic test evaluation. In contrast to risk factor studies in food animals, where adjustment for within group correlations is both usual and required for good statistical practice, diagnostic test evaluation studies rarely take such clustering aspects into account, which can result in misleading results. The aim of the present study was to estimate test accuracies of a PCR originally designed for use as a confirmatory test, displaying a high diagnostic specificity, and cultural examination for B. hyodysenteriae. This estimation was conducted based on results of 239 samples from 103 herds originating from routine diagnostic sampling. Using Bayesian latent class modelling comprising of a hierarchical beta-binomial approach (which allowed prevalence across individual herds to vary as herd level random effect), robust estimates for the sensitivities of PCR and culture, as well as for the specificity of PCR, were obtained. The estimated diagnostic sensitivity of PCR (95% CI) and culture were 73.2% (62.3; 82.9) and 88.6% (74.9; 99.3), respectively. The estimated specificity of the PCR was 96.2% (90.9; 99.8). For test evaluation studies, a Bayesian latent class approach is well suited for addressing the considerable complexities of population structure in food animals.

Patterns of Psychological Adaptation to Spousal Bereavement in Old Age

Background: While the negative effects of spousal bereavement on well-being are well documented in empirical research, the large individual differences in psychological adaptation are still not well understood. Objective: This contribution aims to identify patterns of psychological adaptation to spousal loss in old age and to shed light on the role of intra- and interpersonal resources and contextual factors as discriminant variables among these patterns. Methods: The data stem from a cross-sectional questionnaire study of 402 widowed individuals (228 women, 174 men) aged between 60 and 89 years (mean age 74.41 years), who lost their partner within the last 5 years, and 618 married individuals, who served as controls (312 women, 306 men; mean age 73.82 years). Results: The exploratory latent profile analysis of the well-being outcomes of depressive symptoms, hopelessness, loneliness, life satisfaction and subjective health revealed three different groups in the widowed sample: ‘resilients' (54% of the sample), ‘copers' (39%) and ‘vulnerables' (7%). The most important variables for group allocation were intrapersonal resources - psychological resilience and the Big Five personality traits - but also the quality of the former relationship and how the loss was experienced. Conclusion: Successful adaptation to spousal loss is primarily associated with high scores in psychological resilience and extraversion and low scores in neuroticism. Our results shed light on the variability in psychological adaptation and underline the important role of intrapersonal resources in facing spousal loss in old age.

Trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term marriage

While the negative effects of divorce on well-being are well documented in research literature, the large individual differences in psychological adaptation over time are still not well understood. This is especially the case for marital breakup after long-term marriage, which is still a neglected research topic. Against this background, the aim of the present contribution is to shed light on the various trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term relationship. Data stem from a longitudinal survey study, which is part of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research ‘LIVES – Overcoming vulnerability: life course perspectives’ (funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation). Our analyses are based on results of an exploratory latent profile analysis performed at the first assessment in 2012 among 308 divorced participants aged 45 – 65 years, who divorced after an average of 25 years of marriage (Perrig-Chiello, Hutchison, & Morselli, 2014). Five different groups regarding psychological adaptation to marital breakup (i.e. life satisfaction, depression, hopelessness, subjective health, and mourning) were identified. They were composed of two larger groups of individuals that adapted quite well or very well (“average copers”, n=151 and “resilients”, n=90) and of three smaller groups with major difficulties to adjust to the new situation (“vulnerables”, n= 18; “malcontens”, n= 37 and “resigned ones”, n=12). Clusters differed statistically significant regarding personality variables, time since separation, current relationship status, and financial situation. In the present contribution, we want to investigate the course of adaptation of the five classes two years later by using latent transition analysis. Furthermore, we aim to examine which variables in terms of personality, relationship status, variables of the context of the separation and socio-demographic variables are crucial for change or stability in levels of adaptation in the different classes. The evaluation of the trajectories of adaptation to this critical life event and the identification of variables that enhance the adaptation over time is essential for developing more differentiated measures in counselling as well as intervention techniques in clinical and social services.

Trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term marriage

Background: Marital dissolution is known to be among the most stressful life events with long- reaching negative consequences on individuals’ lives. A limitation in research to date is that most studies have focused on the impact of marital disruption on well-being outcomes in younger adults. Furthermore, although population-based studies on divorce document a broad range of negative effects, more fine-grained analyses reveal a large heterogeneity in people’s adjustment, which is still not well understood. Objective: To explore trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term marriage, and to examine variables accounting for recovery or chronicity in terms of intrapersonal resources (personality, trait resilience, personal growth), relationship variables (satisfaction with ex- relationship, length of marriage, time since divorce) and socio-demographic variables (age, gender, financial situation). Methods: Latent transition analysis is used to examine the course of psychological adaptation (i.e., depressive symptoms, life satisfaction, hopelessness, mourning and subjective health) to divorce over two years among five profiles of 308 divorcees (mean age: 55.6 years; average duration of former marriage: 23.62 years): Two larger groups of individuals, the one which adapted very well (‘resilients’, 29%), the other quite well (‘average copers’, 49%), and three groups with major difficulties (‘vulnerables’, 6%; ‘malcontents’, 12%; and ‘resigned’, 4%). In a second step the differences among transition patterns were explored on the basis of the distal variables (i.e., intrapersonal resources, relationship variables, socio-demographics). Results: Although the probability of upward changes was higher for those individuals with lower adaptation at time 1, only a small number of individuals made an upward change from the maladapted to the well-adapted groups throughout the two years. The groups of copers and resilients remained stable in their psychological adaption. The most consistent results related to upward changes were intrapersonal resources, namely the NEO personality traits and trait resilience. Conclusion: The majority of individuals divorcing after a long-term marriage adapt successfully over time. Adaptation trajectories depend primarily on intrapersonal resources. However, a minority of divorcees exhibit enduring difficulties. Knowledge about the diversity of these trajectories of vulnerability could be of great help for designing psychological interventions to better tackle this critical life event.

Shallow Dialogue Processing Using Machine Learning Algorithms (or not)

This paper presents a shallow dialogue analysis model, aimed at human-human dialogues in the context of staff or business meetings. Four components of the model are defined, and several machine learning techniques are used to extract features from dialogue transcripts: maximum entropy classifiers for dialogue acts, latent semantic analysis for topic segmentation, or decision tree classifiers for discourse markers. A rule-based approach is proposed for solving cross-modal references to meeting documents. The methods are trained and evaluated thanks to a common data set and annotation format. The integration of the components into an automated shallow dialogue parser opens the way to multimodal meeting processing and retrieval applications.

Career adaptability profiles and their relationship to adaptivity and adapting

Research on career adaptability predominantly uses variable-centered approaches that focus on the average effects in terms of the predictors and outcomes within a given sample. Extending this research, the present paper used a person-centered approach to determine whether subgroups with distinct adaptability profiles in terms of concern, control, curiosity and confidence can be identified. We also explored the relationship between the various adaptability profiles and adapting (career planning, career decision-making difficulties, career exploration, and occupational self-efficacy beliefs) and adaptivity (core self-evaluations and proactivity). Using latent profile analysis, we found distinct adaptability profiles among 350 German university students. Students with different profiles differed significantly in their levels of adapting. This finding was confirmed in a second study of 1226 students selected from the same population. In both samples, the adaptability profiles differed mainly in terms of their adaptability levels but not their shape. Moreover, in both samples, the students whose profiles indicated generally higher adaptability showed more adapting compared with the students whose profiles indicated generally lower adaptability. Study 2 also showed that students with higher-adaptability profiles showed significantly higher adaptivity. The results suggest that level effects dominate adaptability profiles, implying the existence of a general adaptability factor within university students that is meaningfully related to adapting and adaptivity.

Un abordaje teórico-metodológico para la investigación de la estructura, la movilidad social y las condiciones de vida : La propuesta ENES-PISAC

En este artículo se comunican los lineamientos centrales del diseño de la Encuesta Nacional sobre Estructura Social (ENES), llevada adelante por el Programa de Investigación sobre la Sociedad Argentina Contemporánea (PISAC). Se presentan aspectos generales relativos a las características de la muestra y las modalidades de relevamiento de la ENES y se desarrolla el abordaje teórico metodológico de los dos ejes principales involucrados en la encuesta: a) la estructura de clases, estratificación y movilidad social; b) las condiciones de vida de los hogares.

Un abordaje teórico-metodológico para la investigación de la estructura, la movilidad social y las condiciones de vida : La propuesta ENES-PISAC

En este artículo se comunican los lineamientos centrales del diseño de la Encuesta Nacional sobre Estructura Social (ENES), llevada adelante por el Programa de Investigación sobre la Sociedad Argentina Contemporánea (PISAC). Se presentan aspectos generales relativos a las características de la muestra y las modalidades de relevamiento de la ENES y se desarrolla el abordaje teórico metodológico de los dos ejes principales involucrados en la encuesta: a) la estructura de clases, estratificación y movilidad social; b) las condiciones de vida de los hogares.