Complex dynamics of financial indices

This paper presents a novel method for the analysis of nonlinear financial and economic systems. The modeling approach integrates the classical concepts of state space representation and time series regression. The analytical and numerical scheme leads to a parameter space representation that constitutes a valid alternative to represent the dynamical behavior. The results reveal that business cycles can be clearly revealed, while the noise effects common in financial indices can elegantly be filtered out of the results.

Analysis of financial indices by means of the windowed Fourier transform

The goal of this study is to analyze the dynamical properties of financial data series from nineteen worldwide stock market indices (SMI) during the period 1995–2009. SMI reveal a complex behavior that can be explored since it is available a considerable volume of data. In this paper is applied the window Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional order systems.

In-situ X-ray diffraction studies during growth of Ni-Ti shape memory alloy films and their complementary ex-situ characterization

Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) Ni-Ti films have attracted much interest as functional and smart materials due to their unique properties. However, there are still important issues unresolved like formation of film texture and its control as well as substrate effects. Thus, the main challenge is not only the control of the microstructure, including stoichiometry and precipitates, but also the identification and control of the preferential orientation since it is a crucial factor in determining the shape memory behaviour. The aim of this PhD thesis is to study the optimisation of the deposition conditions of films of Ni-Ti in order to obtain the material fully crystallized at the end of the deposition, and to establish a clear relationship between the substrates and texture development. In order to achieve this objective, a two-magnetron sputter deposition chamber has been used allowing to heat and to apply a bias voltage to the substrate. It can be mounted into the six-circle diffractometer of the Rossendorf Beamline (ROBL) at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF), Grenoble, France, enabling an in-situ characterization by X-ray diffraction(XRD) of the films during their growth and annealing. The in-situ studies enable us to identify the different steps of the structural evolution during deposition with a set of parameters as well as to evaluate the effect of changing parameters on the structural characteristics of the deposited film. Besides the in-situ studies, other complementary ex-situ characterization techniques such as XRD at a laboratory source, Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy(RBS), Auger electron spectroscopy (AES), cross-sectional transmission electron microscopy (X-TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and electrical resistivity (ER) measurements during temperature cycling have been used for a fine structural characterization. In this study, mainly naturally and thermally oxidized Si(100) substrates, TiN buffer layers with different thicknesses (i.e. the TiN topmost layer crystallographic orientation is thickness dependent) and MgO(100) single crystals were used as substrates. The chosen experimental procedure led to a controlled composition and preferential orientation of the films. The type of substrate plays an important role for the texture of the sputtered Ni-Ti films and according to the ER results, the distinct crystallographic orientations of the Ni-Ti films influence their phase transformation characteristics.

Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling

We propose a graphical method to visualize possible time-varying correlations between fifteen stock market values. The method is useful for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behaviour. The graphs, originated from applying multidimensional scaling techniques (MDS), may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.

A one-dimensional prescribed curvature equation modeling the corneal shape.

We prove existence, uniqueness, and stability of solutions of the prescribed curvature problem (u'/root 1 + u'(2))' = au - b/root 1 + u'(2) in [0, 1], u'(0) = u(1) = 0, for any given a > 0 and b > 0. We also develop a linear monotone iterative scheme for approximating the solution. This equation has been proposed as a model of the corneal shape in the recent paper (Okrasinski and Plociniczak in Nonlinear Anal., Real World Appl. 13:1498-1505, 2012), where a simplified version obtained by partial linearization has been investigated.

Paired indices for clustering evaluation correction for agreement by chance

In the present paper we focus on the performance of clustering algorithms using indices of paired agreement to measure the accordance between clusters and an a priori known structure. We specifically propose a method to correct all indices considered for agreement by chance - the adjusted indices are meant to provide a realistic measure of clustering performance. The proposed method enables the correction of virtually any index - overcoming previous limitations known in the literature - and provides very precise results. We use simulated datasets under diverse scenarios and discuss the pertinence of our proposal which is particularly relevant when poorly separated clusters are considered. Finally we compare the performance of EM and KMeans algorithms, within each of the simulated scenarios and generally conclude that EM generally yields best results.

Densities and refractive indices for the ternary mixture methanol/propan-1-Ol/acetonitrile

Refractive indices, n(D), and densities, rho, at 298.15 K were measured for the ternary mixture methanol (MeOH)/propan-1-ol (1-PrOH)/acetonitrile (MeCN) for a total of 22 mole fractions, along with 18 mole fractions of each of the corresponding binary mixtures, methanol/propan-1-ol, propan-1-ol/acetonitrile and methanol/acetonitrile. The variation of excess refractive indices and excess molar volumes with composition was modeled by the Redlich-Kister polynomial function in the case of binary mixtures and by the Cibulka equation for the ternary mixture. A thermodynamic approach to excess refractive indices, recently proposed by other authors, was applied for the first time to ternary liquid mixtures. Structural effects were identified and interpreted both in the binary and ternary systems. A complex relationship between excess refractive indices and excess molar volumes was identified, revealing all four possible sign combinations between these two properties. Structuring of the mixtures was also discussed on the basis of partial molar volumes of the binary and ternary mixtures.

Laser welding of shape memory alloys

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

What is the shape of an air bubble on a liquid surface?

We have calculated the equilibrium shape of the axially symmetric meniscus along which a spherical bubble contacts a flat liquid surface by analytically integrating the Young-Laplace equation in the presence of gravity, in the limit of large Bond numbers. This method has the advantage that it provides semianalytical expressions for key geometrical properties of the bubble in terms of the Bond number. Results are in good overall agreement with experimental data and are consistent with fully numerical (Surface Evolver) calculations. In particular, we are able to describe how the bubble shape changes from hemispherical, with a flat, shallow bottom, to lenticular, with a deeper, curved bottom, as the Bond number is decreased.

Phase behavior of shape-changing spheroids

We introduce a simple model for a biaxial nematic liquid crystal. This consists of hard spheroids that can switch shape between prolate (rodlike) and oblate (platelike) subject to an energy penalty Δε. The spheroids are approximated as hard Gaussian overlap particles and are treated at the level of Onsager's second-virial description. We use both bifurcation analysis and a numerical minimization of the free energy to show that, for additive particle shapes, (i) there is no stable biaxial phase even for Δε=0 (although there is a metastable biaxial phase in the same density range as the stable uniaxial phase) and (ii) the isotropic-to-nematic transition is into either one of two degenerate uniaxial phases, rod rich or plate rich. We confirm that even a small amount of shape nonadditivity may stabilize the biaxial nematic phase.

A fractional perspective to financial indices

The application of mathematical methods and computer algorithms in the analysis of economic and financial data series aims to give empirical descriptions of the hidden relations between many complex or unknown variables and systems. This strategy overcomes the requirement for building models based on a set of ‘fundamental laws’, which is the paradigm for studying phenomena usual in physics and engineering. In spite of this shortcut, the fact is that financial series demonstrate to be hard to tackle, involving complex memory effects and a apparently chaotic behaviour. Several measures for describing these objects were adopted by market agents, but, due to their simplicity, they are not capable to cope with the diversity and complexity embedded in the data. Therefore, it is important to propose new measures that, on one hand, are highly interpretable by standard personal but, on the other hand, are capable of capturing a significant part of the dynamical effects.

Comparing clustering solutions: the use of adjusted paired indices

In the present paper we compare clustering solutions using indices of paired agreement. We propose a new method - IADJUST - to correct indices of paired agreement, excluding agreement by chance. This new method overcomes previous limitations known in the literature as it permits the correction of any index. We illustrate its use in external clustering validation, to measure the accordance between clusters and an a priori known structure. The adjusted indices are intended to provide a realistic measure of clustering performance that excludes agreement by chance with ground truth. We use simulated data sets, under a range of scenarios - considering diverse numbers of clusters, clusters overlaps and balances - to discuss the pertinence and the precision of our proposal. Precision is established based on comparisons with the analytical approach for correction specific indices that can be corrected in this way are used for this purpose. The pertinence of the proposed correction is discussed when making a detailed comparison between the performance of two classical clustering approaches, namely Expectation-Maximization (EM) and K-Means (KM) algorithms. Eight indices of paired agreement are studied and new corrected indices are obtained.

Vibration control with shape-memory alloys in civil engineering structures

Dissertação apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Engenharia Civil

Two new power indices based on winning coalitions

Deegan and Packel (1979) and Holler (1982) proposed two power indices for simple games: the Deegan–Packel index and the Public Good Index. In the definition of these indices, only minimal winning coalitions are taken into account. Using similar arguments, we define two new power indices. These new indices are defined taking into account only those winning coalitions that do not contain null players. The results obtained with the different power indices are compared by means of two real-world examples taken from the political field.

Multidimensional Scaling Visualization using Parametric Similarity Indices

In this paper, we apply multidimensional scaling (MDS) and parametric similarity indices (PSI) in the analysis of complex systems (CS). Each CS is viewed as a dynamical system, exhibiting an output time-series to be interpreted as a manifestation of its behavior. We start by adopting a sliding window to sample the original data into several consecutive time periods. Second, we define a given PSI for tracking pieces of data. We then compare the windows for different values of the parameter, and we generate the corresponding MDS maps of ‘points’. Third, we use Procrustes analysis to linearly transform the MDS charts for maximum superposition and to build a global MDS map of “shapes”. This final plot captures the time evolution of the phenomena and is sensitive to the PSI adopted. The generalized correlation, the Minkowski distance and four entropy-based indices are tested. The proposed approach is applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market index and the Europe Brent Spot Price FOB time-series.