Extreme times for volatility processes

Extreme times techniques, generally applied to nonequilibrium statistical mechanical processes, are also useful for a better understanding of financial markets. We present a detailed study on the mean first-passage time for the volatility of return time series. The empirical results extracted from daily data of major indices seem to follow the same law regardless of the kind of index thus suggesting an universal pattern. The empirical mean first-passage time to a certain level L is fairly different from that of the Wiener process showing a dissimilar behavior depending on whether L is higher or lower than the average volatility. All of this indicates a more complex dynamics in which a reverting force drives volatility toward its mean value. We thus present the mean first-passage time expressions of the most common stochastic volatility models whose approach is comparable to the random diffusion description. We discuss asymptotic approximations of these models and confront them to empirical results with a good agreement with the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model.

The Implied Book and the Narrative Text. On a Blind Spot in Narratological Theory - from a Media Studies Perspective

The article is concerned with the formal definition of a largely unnoticed factor in narrative structure. Based on the assumptions that (1) the semantics of a written text depend, among other factors, directly on its visual alignment in space, that (2) the formal structure of a text has to meet that of its spatial presentation and that (3) these assumptions hold true also for narrative texts (which, however, in modern times typically conceal their spatial dimensions by a low-key linear layout), it is argued that, how ever low-key, the expected material shape of a given narrative determines the configuration of its plot by its author. The ,implied book' thus denotes an author's historically assumable, not necessarily conscious idea of how his text, which is still in the process of creation, will be dimensionally presented and under these circumstances visually absorbed. Assuming that an author's knowledge of this later (potentially) substantiated material form influences the composition, the implied book is to be understood as a text-genetically determined, structuring moment of the text. Historically reconstructed, it thus serves the methodical analysis of structural characteristics of a completed text.

The Etruscan smile, by José Luis Sampedro

In this project we present some background data about José Luis Sampedro and his works to point out the main reasons why we should translate them. We then offer a translation proposal for some selected chapters of the book La sonrisa etrusca in order to suggest a hypothetical translation job.

Blanc sota negre. Treballs des de l'imperceptible / 3. Freya Powell: I'll smile and I'm not sad. I altres passats presents

Les instal·lacions de vídeo de la primera exposició de Freya Powell a Barcelona conviden a una meditació dels vincles entre la memòria i l'arxiu, l'enregistrament, el repertori i les traces de la Història. En aquesta exposició es tensa un fil entre la memòria dels condemnats a mort nordamericans, la memòria de la Segona Guerra Mundial, la de l'artista pròpia i els diferents mapes del món sota la història colonial. És un fil que pregunta pel nostre vincle no només amb les veus i les paraules arxivades, sinó amb aquelles que volem recollir i rebre.

Blanco bajo negro. Trabajos desde lo imperceptible / 3. Freya Powell: I’ll smile and I’m not sad. Y otros pasados presentes

Las instalaciones de vídeo de la primera exposición de Freya Powell en Barcelona invitan a una meditación sobre los vínculos entre la memoria y el archivo, el registro, el repertorio y las huellas de la Historia. En esta exposición se tensa un hilo entre la memoria de los condenados a muerte norteamericanos, la memoria de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, la de la propia artista y los diferentes mapas del mundo creados por la historia colonial. Es un hilo que pregunta por nuestro vínculo no solo con las voces y las palabras archivadas, sino con ésas que queremos recoger y recibir.

Cycle: White under Black. Works from the imperceptible / 3. Freya Powell: I’ll smile and I’m not sad, and other past presents

The video installations of Freya Powell's first exhibition in Barcelona call for an analysis of the links between memory and the archive, between compilation, registration, and the traces of History. Powell's work establishes a fine link between the memory of those sentenced to death in the United States, the memory of the Second World War, the artist's own memory, and the different world maps produced by colonial history. This link forces us to take into account our own connection not only with the voices and words that have been archived, but also with those voices that we want to hear and register.

Value added logistics in supply and demand chains. Smile. Part 1. eBusiness between global company and itslocal sme supplier network

VALOSADE (Value Added Logistics in Supply and Demand Chains) is the research project of Anita Lukka's VALORE (Value Added Logistics Research) research team inLappeenranta University of Technology. VALOSADE is included in ELO (Ebusiness logistics) technology program of Tekes (Finnish Technology Agency). SMILE (SME-sector, Internet applications and Logistical Efficiency) is one of four subprojects of VALOSADE. SMILE research focuses on case network that is composed of small and medium sized mechanical maintenance service providers and global wood processing customers. Basic principle of SMILE study is communication and ebusiness insupply and demand network. This first phase of research concentrates on creating backgrounds for SMILE study and for ebusiness solutions of maintenance case network. The focus is on general trends of ebusiness in supply chains and networksof different industries; total ebusiness system architecture of company networks; ebusiness strategy of company network; information value chain; different factors, which influence on ebusiness solution of company network; and the correlation between ebusiness and competitive advantage. Literature, interviews and benchmarking were used as research methods in this qualitative case study. Networks and end-to-end supply chains are the organizational structures, which can add value for end customer. Information is one of the key factors in these decentralized structures. Because of decentralization of business, information is produced and used in different companies and in different information systems. Information refinement services are needed to manage information flows in company networksbetween different systems. Furthermore, some new solutions like network information systems are utilised in optimising network performance and in standardizingnetwork common processes. Some cases have however indicated, that utilization of ebusiness in decentralized business model is not always a necessity, but value-add of ICT must be defined case-specifically. In the theory part of report, different ebusiness and architecture models are introduced. These models are compared to empirical case data in research results. The biggest difference between theory and empirical data is that models are mainly developed for large-scale companies - not for SMEs. This is due to that implemented network ebusiness solutions are mainly large company centered. Genuine SME network centred ebusiness models are quite rare, and the study in that area has been few in number. Business relationships between customer and their SME suppliers are nowadays concentrated more on collaborative tactical and strategic initiatives besides transaction based operational initiatives. However, ebusiness systems are further mainly based on exchange of operational transactional data. Collaborative ebusiness solutions are in planning or pilot phase in most case companies. Furthermore, many ebusiness solutions are nowadays between two participants, but network and end-to-end supply chain transparency and information systems are quite rare. Transaction volumes, data formats, the types of exchanged information, information criticality,type and duration of business relationship, internal information systems of partners, processes and operation models (e.g. different ordering models) differ among network companies, and furthermore companies are at different stages on networking and ebusiness readiness. Because of former factors, different customer-supplier combinations in network must utilise totally different ebusiness architectures, technologies, systems and standards.

Value added logistics in supply and demand chain. Smile. Part 2. eBusiness in a service business. Case: A maintenance and operations network in forest industry

VVALOSADE is a research project of professor Anita Lukka's VALORE research team in the Lappeenranta University of Technology. The VALOSADE includes the ELO technology program of Tekes. SMILE is one of four subprojects of the VALOSADE. The SMILE study focuses on the case of the company network that is composed of small and micro-sized mechanical maintenance service providers and forest industry as large-scale customers. The basic principle of the SMILE study is the communication and ebusiness in supply and demand networks. The aim of the study is to develop ebusiness strategy, ebusiness model and e-processes among the SME local service providers, and onthe other hand, between the local service provider network and the forest industry customers in a maintenance and operations service business. A literature review, interviews and benchmarking are used as research methods in this qualitative case study. The first SMILE report, 'Ebusiness between Global Company and Its Local SME Supplier Network', concentrated on creating background for the SMILE study by studying general trends of ebusiness in supply chains and networks of different industries. This second phase of the study concentrates on case network background, such as business relationships, information systems and business objectives; core processes in maintenance and operations service network; development needs in communication among the network participants; and ICT solutions to respond needs in changing environment. In the theory part of the report, different ebusiness models and frameworks are introduced. Those models and frameworks are compared to empirical case data. From that analysis of the empirical data, therecommendations for the development of the network information system are derived. In process industry such as the forest industry, it is crucial to achieve a high level of operational efficiency and reliability, which sets up great requirements for maintenance and operations. Therefore, partnerships or strategic alliances are needed between the network participants. In partnerships and alliances, deep communication is important, and therefore the information systems in the network also are critical. Communication, coordination and collaboration will increase in the case network in the future, because network resources must be optimised to improve competitive capability of the forest industry customers and theefficiency of their service providers. At present, ebusiness systems are not usual in this maintenance network. A network information system among the forest industry customers and their local service providers actually is the only genuinenetwork information system in this total network. However, the utilisation of that system has been quite insignificant. The current system does not add value enough either to the customers or to the local service providers. At present, thenetwork information system is the infomediary that share static information forthe network partners. The network information system should be the transaction intermediary, which integrates internal processes of the network companies; the network information system, which provides common standardised processes for thelocal service providers; and the infomediary, which share static and dynamic information on right time, on right partner, on right costs, on right format and on right quality. This study provides recommendations how to develop this system in the future to add value to the network companies. Ebusiness scenarios, vision, objectives, strategies, application architecture, ebusiness model, core processes and development strategy must be considered when the network information system will be developed in the next development step. The core processes in the case network are demand/capacity management, customer/supplier relationship management, service delivery management, knowledge management and cash flow management. Most benefits from ebusiness solutions come from the electrifying of operational level processes, such as service delivery management and cash flow management.

Market linkages and volatility spillover: evidence from BRIC countries

The aim of this study is to investigate volatility spillover-effect and market integration between BRIC countries. Motivated by existing literature of market integration between developed and emerging markets, we will investigate market linkages using multivariate asymmetric GARCH BEKK model. The increasing globalization of the financial markets and consequent higher volatility transfer between markets makes it more important to understand market integration between BRIC countries. We investigate the stock market integration and volatility transfer between the BRIC countries form 1998 to 2007, using daily data. The empirical results show that there are international diversification benefits among Brazil, Russia, China and India. U.S. influence to these countries has been week, even though U.S. economy has been leading the global financial markets. From Finnish point of view, diversification benefits are robust but we find some correlation with Russia and China.

Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Influence of Macro-Finance Factors

In this paper, we scrutinize the cross-sectional relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. As a novelty, the idiosyncratic volatility is obtained by conditioning upon macro-finance factors as well as upon traditional asset pricing factors. The macro-finance factors are constructed from a large pool of macroeconomic and financial variables. Cleaning for macro-finance e§ects reverses the puzzling negative relation between returns and idiosyncratic volatility documented previously. Portfolio analysis shows that the effects from macro-finance factors are economically strong. The relation between idiosyncratic volatility and returns does not vary with the NBER business cycles. The empirical results are highly robust. Keywords: Idiosyncratic volatility puzzle; Macro-finance predictors; Factor analysis; Business cycle. JEL Classifications: G12; G14

Financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility: a connectedness analysis

This paper measures the connectedness in EMU sovereign market volatility between April 1999 and January 2014, in order to monitor stress transmission and to identify episodes of intensive spillovers from one country to the others. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each country and apply panel model techniques to investigate its determinants. Finally, to gain further insights, we examine the timevarying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness at different stages of the recent sovereign debt crisis.

Volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets

We analyse volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets. First, we examine the unconditional patterns during the full sample (April 1999-January 2014) using a measure recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2012). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate net directional volatility spillovers for each of the eleven countries under study, and to determine whether core and peripheral markets present differences. Finally, we apply a panel analysis to empirically investigate the determinants of net directional spillovers of this kind.