Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English up to 2010. Data synthesis: The review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Alone against the crowd: Individual differences in referees' ability to cope under pressure

This paper contributes to the recent debate about the role of referees in the home advantage phenomenon. Specifically, it aims to provide a convincing answer to the newly posed question of the existence of individual differences among referees in terms of the home advantage (Boyko, Boyko, & Boyko, 2007; Johnston, 2008). Using multilevel modelling on a large and representative dataset we find that (1) the home advantage effect differs significantly among referees, and (2) this relationship is moderated by the size of the crowd. These new results suggest that a part of the home advantage is due to the effect of the crowd on the referees, and that some referees are more prone to be influenced by the crowd than others. This provides strong evidence to indicate that referees are a significant contributing factor to the home advantage. The implications of these findings are discussed both in terms of the relevant social psychological research, and with respect to the selection, assessment, and training of referees.

Crisis communication under transformative change : the emergent context and roles of primary and secondary organisations

In an era of complex challenges that draw sustained media attention and entangle multiple organisational actors, this thesis addresses the gap between current trends in society and business, and existing scholarship in public relations and crisis communication. By responding to calls from crisis communication researchers to develop theory (Coombs, 2006a), to examine the interdependencies of crises (Seeger, Sellnow, & Ulmer, 1998), and to consider variation in crisis response (Seeger, 2002), this thesis contributes to theory development in crisis communication and public relations. Through transformative change, this thesis extends existing scholarship built on a preservation or conservation logic where public relations is used to maintain stability by incrementally responding to changes in an organisation‘s environment (Cutlip, Center, & Broom, 2006; Everett, 2001; Grunig, 2000; Spicer, 1997). Based on the opportunity to contribute to ongoing theoretical development in the literature, the overall research problem guiding this thesis asks: How does transformative change during crisis influence corporate actors’ communication? This thesis adopts punctuated equilibrium theory, which describes change as alternating between long periods of stability and short periods of revolutionary or transformative change (Gersick, 1991; Romanelli & Tushman, 1994; Siggelkow, 2002; Tushman, Newman, & Romanelli, 1986; Tushman & Romanelli, 1985). As a theory for change, punctuated equilibrium provides an opportunity to examine public relations and transformative change, building on scholarship that is based primarily on incremental change. Further, existing scholarship in public relations and crisis communication focuses on the actions of single organisations in situational or short-term crisis events. Punctuated equilibrium theory enables the study of multiple crises and multiple organisational responses during transformative change. In doing so, punctuated equilibrium theory provides a framework to explain both the context for transformative change and actions or strategies enacted by organisations during transformative change (Tushman, Newman, & Romanelli, 1986; Tushman & Romanelli, 1985; Tushman, Virany, & Romanelli, 1986). The connections between context and action inform the research questions that guide this thesis: RQ1: What symbolic and substantive strategies persist and change as crises develop from situational events to transformative and multiple linked events? RQ2: What features of the crisis context influence changes in symbolic and substantive strategies? To shed light on these research questions, the thesis adopts a qualitative approach guided by process theory and methods to explicate the events, sequences and activities that were essential to change (Pettigrew, 1992; Van de Ven, 1992). Specifically, the thesis draws on an alternative template strategy (Langley, 1999) that provides several alternative interpretations of the same events (Allison, 1971; Allison & Zelikow, 1999). Following Allison (1971) and Allison and Zelikow (1999), this thesis uses three alternative templates of crisis or strategic response typologies to construct three narratives using media articles and organisational documents. The narratives are compared to identify and draw out different patterns of crisis communication strategies that operate within different crisis contexts. The thesis is based on the crisis events that affected three organisations within the pharmaceutical industry for four years. The primary organisation is Merck, as its product recall crisis triggered transformative change affecting, in different ways, the secondary organisations of Pfizer and Novartis. Three narratives are presented based on the crisis or strategic response typologies of Coombs (2006b), Allen and Caillouet (1994), and Oliver (1991). The findings of this thesis reveal different stories about crisis communication under transformative change. By zooming in to a micro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) to focus on the crisis communication and actions of a single organisation and zooming out to a macro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) to consider multiple organisations, new insights about crisis communication, change and the relationships among multiple organisations are revealed at context and action levels. At the context level, each subsequent narrative demonstrates greater connections among multiple corporate actors. By zooming out from Coombs‘ (2006b) focus on single organisations to consider Allen and Caillouet‘s (1994) integration of the web of corporate actors, the thesis demonstrates how corporate actors add accountability pressures to the primary organisation. Next, by zooming further out to the macro perspective by considering Oliver‘s (1991) strategic responses to institutional processes, the thesis reveals a greater range of corporate actors that are caught up in the process of transformative change and accounts for their varying levels of agency over their environment. By zooming in to a micro perspective and out to a macro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) across alternative templates, the thesis sheds light on sequences, events, and actions of primary and secondary organisations. Although the primary organisation remains the focus of sustained media attention across the four-year time frame, the secondary organisations, even when one faced a similar starting situation to the primary organisation, were buffered by the process of transformative change. This understanding of crisis contexts in transforming environments builds on existing knowledge in crisis communication. At the action level, the thesis also reveals different interpretations from each alternative template. Coombs‘ (2006b) narrative shows persistence in the primary organisation‘s crisis or strategic responses over the four-year time frame of the thesis. That is, the primary organisation consistently applies a diminish crisis response. At times, the primary organisation drew on denial responses when corporate actors questioned its legitimacy or actions. To close the crisis, the primary organisation uses a rebuild crisis posture (Coombs, 2006). These finding are replicated in Allen and Caillouet‘s (1994) narrative, noting this template‘s limitation to communication messages only. Oliver‘s (1991) narrative is consistent with Coombs‘ (2006b) but also demonstrated a shift from a strategic response that signals conformity to the environment to one that signals more active resistance to the environment over time. Specifically, the primary organisation‘s initial response demonstrates conformity but these same messages were used some three years later to set new expectations in the environment in order to shape criteria and build acceptance for future organisational decisions. In summary, the findings demonstrate the power of crisis or strategic responses when considered over time and in the context of transformative change. The conclusions of this research contribute to scholarship in the public relations and management literatures. Based on the significance of organisational theory, the primary contribution of the theory relates to the role of interorganisational linkages or legitimacy buffers that form during the punctuation of equilibrium. The network of linkages among the corporate actors are significant also to the crisis communication literature as they form part of the process model of crisis communication under punctuated equilibrium. This model extends existing research that focuses on crisis communication of single organisations to consider the emergent context that incorporates secondary organisations as well as the localised contests of legitimacy and buffers from regulatory authorities. The thesis also provides an empirical base for punctuated equilibrium in public relations and crisis communication, extending Murphy‘s (2000) introduction of the theory to the public relations literature. In doing this, punctuated equilibrium theory reinvigorates theoretical development in crisis communication by extending existing scholarship around incrementalist approaches and demonstrating how public relations works in the context of transformative change. Further research in this area could consider using alternative templates to study transformative change caused by a range of crisis types from natural disasters to product tampering, and to add further insight into the dynamics between primary and secondary organisations. This thesis contributes to practice by providing guidelines for crisis response strategy selection and indicators related to the emergent context for crises under transformative change that will help primary and secondary organisations‘ responses to crises.

The use of speech and lip modalities for robust speaker verification under adverse conditions

Investigates the use of lip information, in conjunction with speech information, for robust speaker verification in the presence of background noise. We have previously shown (Int. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Proc., vol. 6, pp. 3693-3696, May 1998) that features extracted from a speaker's moving lips hold speaker dependencies which are complementary with speech features. We demonstrate that the fusion of lip and speech information allows for a highly robust speaker verification system which outperforms either subsystem individually. We present a new technique for determining the weighting to be applied to each modality so as to optimize the performance of the fused system. Given a correct weighting, lip information is shown to be highly effective for reducing the false acceptance and false rejection error rates in the presence of background noise

An approach to access control under uncertainty

In dynamic and uncertain environments such as healthcare, where the needs of security and information availability are difficult to balance, an access control approach based on a static policy will be suboptimal regardless of how comprehensive it is. The uncertainty stems from the unpredictability of users’ operational needs as well as their private incentives to misuse permissions. In Role Based Access Control (RBAC), a user’s legitimate access request may be denied because its need has not been anticipated by the security administrator. Alternatively, even when the policy is correctly specified an authorised user may accidentally or intentionally misuse the granted permission. This paper introduces a novel approach to access control under uncertainty and presents it in the context of RBAC. By taking insights from the field of economics, in particular the insurance literature, we propose a formal model where the value of resources are explicitly defined and an RBAC policy (entailing those predictable access needs) is only used as a reference point to determine the price each user has to pay for access, as opposed to representing hard and fast rules that are always rigidly applied.

Mechanical behaviours of pumpkin peel under compression test

Mechanical damages such as bruising, collision and impact during food processing stages diminish quality and quantity of productions as well as efficiency of operations. Studying mechanical characteristics of food materials will help to enhance current industrial practices. Mechanical properties of fruits and vegetables describe how these materials behave under loading in real industrial operations. Optimizing and designing more efficient equipments require accurate and precise information of tissue behaviours. FE modelling of food industrial processes is an effective method of studying interrelation of variables during mechanical operation. In this study, empirical investigation has been done on mechanical properties of pumpkin peel. The test was a part of FE modelling and simulation of mechanical peeling stage of tough skinned vegetables. The compression test has been conducted on Jap variety of pumpkin. Additionally, stress strain curve, bio-yield and toughness of pumpkin skin have been calculated. The required energy for reaching bio-yield point was 493.75, 507.71 and 451.71 N.mm for 1.25, 10 and 20 mm/min loading speed respectively. Average value of force in bio-yield point for pumpkin peel was 310 N.

Numerical exploration of the defect’s effect on mechanical properties of nanowires under torsion

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been carried out to investigate the defect’s effect on the mechanical properties of single-crystal copper nanowire with different surface defects, under torsion deformation. The torsional rigidity is found insensitive to the surface defects and the critical angle appears an obvious decrease due to the surface defects, the largest decrease is found for the nanowire with surface horizon defect. The deformation mechanism appears different degrees of influence due to surface defects. The surface defects play a role of dislocation sources. Comparing with single intrinsic stacking faults formation for the perfect nanowire, much affluent deformation processes have been activated because of surface defects, for instance, we find the twins formation for the nanowire with a surface 45o defect.

Under the carpet : the politics and trauma of patient harm

Few studies have investigated iatrogenic outcomes from the viewpoint of patient experience. To address this anomaly, the broad aim of this research is to explore the lived experience of patient harm. Patient harm is defined as major harm to the patient, either psychosocial or physical in nature, resulting from any aspect of health care. Utilising the method of Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR), in-depth interviews are conducted with twenty-four volunteer research participants who self-report having been severely harmed by an invasive medical procedure. A standardised measure of emotional distress, the Impact of Event Scale (IES), is additionally employed for purposes of triangulation. Thematic analysis of transcript data indicate numerous findings including: (i) difficulties regarding patients‘ prior understanding of risks involved with their medical procedure; (ii) the problematic response of the health system post-procedure; (iii) multiple adverse effects upon life functioning; (iv) limited recourse options for patients; and (v) the approach desired in terms of how patient harm should be systemically handled. In addition, IES results indicate a clinically significant level of distress in the sample as a whole. To discuss findings, a cross-disciplinary approach is adopted that draws upon sociology, medicine, medical anthropology, psychology, philosophy, history, ethics, law, and political theory. Furthermore, an overall explanatory framework is proposed in terms of the master themes of power and trauma. In terms of the theme of power, a postmodernist analysis explores the politics of patient harm, particularly the dynamics surrounding the politics of knowledge (e.g., notions of subjective versus objective knowledge, informed consent, and open disclosure). This analysis suggests that patient care is not the prime function of the health system, which appears more focussed upon serving the interests of those in the upper levels of its hierarchy. In terms of the master theme of trauma, current understandings of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are critiqued, and based on data from this research as well as the international literature, a new model of trauma is proposed. This model is based upon the principle of homeostasis observed in biology, whereby within every cell or organism a state of equilibrium is sought and maintained. The proposed model identifies several bio-psychosocial markers of trauma across its three main phases. These trauma markers include: (i) a profound sense of loss; (ii) a lack of perceived control; (iii) passive trauma processing responses; (iv) an identity crisis; (v) a quest to fully understand the trauma event; (vi) a need for social validation of the traumatic experience; and (vii) posttraumatic adaption with the possibility of positive change. To further explore the master themes of power and trauma, a natural group interview is carried out at a meeting of a patient support group for arachnoiditis. Observations at this meeting and members‘ stories in general support the homeostatic model of trauma, particularly the quest to find answers in the face of distressing experience, as well as the need for social recognition of that experience. In addition, the sociopolitical response to arachnoiditis highlights how public domains of knowledge are largely constructed and controlled by vested interests. Implications of the data overall are discussed in terms of a cultural revolution being needed in health care to position core values around a prime focus upon patients as human beings.