INVESTIGATIONS INTO MECHANISMS UNDERLYING EXTREME WAVE FORMATIONS AND COMPUTATIONALLY INTENSIVE SIMULATIONS

Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain extreme waves or rogue waves in an oceanic environment including directional focusing, dispersive focusing, wave-current interaction, and nonlinear modulational instability. The Benjamin-Feir instability (nonlinear modulational instability), however, is considered to be one of the primary mechanisms for rogue-wave occurrence. The nonlinear Schrodinger equation is a well-established approximate model based on the same assumptions as required for the derivation of the Benjamin-Feir theory. Solutions of the nonlinear Schrodinger equation, including new rogue-wave type solutions are presented in the author's dissertation work. The solutions are obtained by using a predictive eigenvalue map based predictor-corrector procedure developed by the author. Features of the predictive map are explored and the influences of certain parameter variations are investigated. The solutions are rescaled to match the length scales of waves generated in a wave tank. Based on the information provided by the map and the details of physical scaling, a framework is developed that can serve as a basis for experimental investigations into a variety of extreme waves as well localizations in wave fields. To derive further fundamental insights into the complexity of extreme wave conditions, Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations are carried out on an advanced Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) based parallel computational platform. Free surface gravity wave simulations have successfully characterized water-wave dispersion in the SPH model while demonstrating extreme energy focusing and wave growth in both linear and nonlinear regimes. A virtual wave tank is simulated wherein wave motions can be excited from either side. Focusing of several wave trains and isolated waves has been simulated. With properly chosen parameters, dispersion effects are observed causing a chirped wave train to focus and exhibit growth. By using the insights derived from the study of the nonlinear Schrodinger equation, modulational instability or self-focusing has been induced in a numerical wave tank and studied through several numerical simulations. Due to the inherent dissipative nature of SPH models, simulating persistent progressive waves can be problematic. This issue has been addressed and an observation-based solution has been provided. The efficacy of SPH in modeling wave focusing can be critical to further our understanding and predicting extreme wave phenomena through simulations. A deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying extreme energy localization phenomena can help facilitate energy harnessing and serve as a basis to predict and mitigate the impact of energy focusing.

Generation of Simulated Daily Precipitation and Air and Soil Temperatures, January 2000

This paper describes a maximum likelihood method using historical weather data to estimate a parametric model of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperatures. Parameter estimates are reported for Brookings, SD, and Boone, IA, to illustrate the procedure. The use of this parametric model to generate stochastic time series of daily weather is then summarized. A soil temperature model is described that determines daily average, maximum, and minimum soil temperatures based on air temperatures and precipitation, following a lagged process due to soil heat storage and other factors.

Solar Powered Highway Delineator System, HR-367, 1993

Currently, many drivers experience some difficulty in viewing the road ahead of them during times of reduced visibility, such as rain, snow, fog, or the darkness of night- Recent studies done by the National Safety Council provide a detailed contrast between fatal accidents occurring during the day and night. Revealed was that the motor vehicle night death rate (4.41 deaths per 100 million miles driven) was sharply higher than the corresponding death rate during daylight hours (1.21). By providing a delineating system powered by the natural resource of solar power, a constant source of visibility may be maintained throughout the evening. Along with providing enough light to trace the outline of the road, other major goals defined in producing this delineator system are as follows: 1. A strong and durable design that would protect the internal components and survive extreme weather conditions. 2. A low maintenance system where components need few repairs or replacements. 3. A design which makes all components accessible in the event that maintenance is needed, but also prevents vandalism. 4. A design that provides greater visibility to drivers and will not harm a vehicle or its passengers in the event of a collision. This solar powered highway delineator consists of an adjustable solar array, a light fixture, and a standard delineator pole. The solar array houses and protects the solar panels, and can be easily adjusted to obtain a maximum amount of sunlight. The light fixture primarily houses the battery, the circuit and the light assembly. Both components allow for easy accessibility and reduce vandalism using internal connections for bolts and wires. The delineator mounting pole is designed to extensively deform in the event of a collision, therefore reducing any harm caused to the vehicle and/or the passengers. The cost of a single prototype to be produced is approximately $70.00 excluding labor costs. However, these material and labor costs will be greatly reduced if a large number of delineators are produced. It is recommended that the Iowa Department of Transportation take full advantage of the research and development put into this delineator design. The principles used in creating this delineator can be used to provide an outline for drivers to follow, or on a larger scale, provide actual roadway lighting in areas where it was never before possible or economically feasible. In either event, the number of fatal accidents will be decreased due to the improved driver visibility in the evening.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...

The snow storm of the 8th of March 2010 in Barcelona: a paradigmatic case

A heavy precipitation event swept over Catalonia (NE Spain) on 8 March 2010, with a total amount that ex- ceeded 100mm locally and snowfall of more than 60cm near the coast. Unusual for this region and at this time of the year, this snowfall event affected mainly the coastal region and was accompanied by thunderstorms and strong wind gusts in some areas. Most of the damage was due to"wet snow", a kind of snow that favours accretion on power lines and causes line-breaking and subsequent interruption of the electricity supply. This paper conducts an interdisciplinary analysis of the event to show its great societal impact and the role played by the recently developed social networks (it has been called the first"Snowfall 2.0"), as well to analyse the meteorologi- cal factors associated with the major damage, and to propose an indicator that could summarise them. With this aim, the paper introduces the event and its societal impact and com- pares it with other important snowfalls that have affected the Catalan coast, using the PRESSGAMA database. The sec- ond part of the paper shows the event"s main meteorological features and analyses the near-surface atmospheric variables responsible for the major damage through the application of the SAFRAN (Système d"analyse fournissant des renseigne- ments atmosphériques à la neige) mesoscale analysis, which, together with the proposed"wind, wet-snow index" (WWSI), allows to estimate the severity of the event. This snow storm provides further evidence of our vulnerability to natural haz- ards and highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary ap- proach in analysing societal impact and the meteorological factors responsible for this kind of event.

Production of magnesium carbonates from serpentinites for CO2 mineral sequestration : optimisation towards industrial application

Global warming is one of the most alarming problems of this century. Initial scepticism concerning its validity is currently dwarfed by the intensification of extreme weather events whilst the gradual arising level of anthropogenic CO2 is pointed out as its main driver. Most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from large point sources (heat and power production and industrial processes) and the continued use of fossil fuels requires quick and effective measures to meet the world’s energy demand whilst (at least) stabilizing CO2 atmospheric levels. The framework known as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – or Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) – comprises a portfolio of technologies applicable to large‐scale GHG sources for preventing CO2 from entering the atmosphere. Amongst them, CO2 capture and mineralisation (CCM) presents the highest potential for CO2 sequestration as the predicted carbon storage capacity (as mineral carbonates) far exceeds the estimated levels of the worldwide identified fossil fuel reserves. The work presented in this thesis aims at taking a step forward to the deployment of an energy/cost effective process for simultaneous capture and storage of CO2 in the form of thermodynamically stable and environmentally friendly solid carbonates. R&D work on the process considered here began in 2007 at Åbo Akademi University in Finland. It involves the processing of magnesium silicate minerals with recyclable ammonium salts for extraction of magnesium at ambient pressure and 400‐440⁰C, followed by aqueous precipitation of magnesium in the form of hydroxide, Mg(OH)2, and finally Mg(OH)2 carbonation in a pressurised fluidized bed reactor at ~510⁰C and ~20 bar PCO2 to produce high purity MgCO3. Rock material taken from the Hitura nickel mine, Finland, and serpentinite collected from Bragança, Portugal, were tested for magnesium extraction with both ammonium sulphate and bisulphate (AS and ABS) for determination of optimal operation parameters, primarily: reaction time, reactor type and presence of moisture. Typical efficiencies range from 50 to 80% of magnesium extraction at 350‐450⁰C. In general ABS performs better than AS showing comparable efficiencies at lower temperature and reaction times. The best experimental results so far obtained include 80% magnesium extraction with ABS at 450⁰C in a laboratory scale rotary kiln and 70% Mg(OH)2 carbonation in the PFB at 500⁰C, 20 bar CO2 pressure for 15 minutes. The extraction reaction with ammonium salts is not at all selective towards magnesium. Other elements like iron, nickel, chromium, copper, etc., are also co‐extracted. Their separation, recovery and valorisation are addressed as well and found to be of great importance. The assessment of the exergetic performance of the process was carried out using Aspen Plus® software and pinch analysis technology. The choice of fluxing agent and its recovery method have a decisive sway in the performance of the process: AS is recovered by crystallisation and in general the whole process requires more exergy (2.48–5.09 GJ/tCO2sequestered) than ABS (2.48–4.47 GJ/tCO2sequestered) when ABS is recovered by thermal decomposition. However, the corrosive nature of molten ABS and operational problems inherent to thermal regeneration of ABS prohibit this route. Regeneration of ABS through addition of H2SO4 to AS (followed by crystallisation) results in an overall negative exergy balance (mainly at the expense of low grade heat) but will flood the system with sulphates. Although the ÅA route is still energy intensive, its performance is comparable to conventional CO2 capture methods using alkanolamine solvents. An energy‐neutral process is dependent on the availability and quality of nearby waste heat and economic viability might be achieved with: magnesium extraction and carbonation levels ≥ 90%, the processing of CO2‐containing flue gases (eliminating the expensive capture step) and production of marketable products.

Vuotovesien merkitys jätevesihuollossa

Yleisimmät viemäröintijärjestelmät ovat erillisviemäröinti ja sekaviemäröinti. Erillisviemä-röinnissä jäte- ja hulevedet johdetaan omissa verkostoissa. Sekaviemäröinnissä kaikki viemä-röitävät vedet virtaavat samassa verkostossa. Vuotoveden osuus jätevesiviemäriverkostossa virtaavasta jätevedestä on keskimäärin yli 30 prosenttia. Vuotovesiselvityksen avulla pyritään selvittämään vuotoveden esiintymisalueet ja mahdolliset vuotokohteet. Mallintamalla laadittu selvitys tarjoaa mahdollisuuden tarkastella verkostoa kokonaisuutena ja erilaisissa käyttötilan-teissa. Tämä työ perustuu Joensuun kantakaupungin viemäriverkostosta mallintamalla laadit-tuun vuotovesiselvitykseen. Työssä on tarkoitus selvittää vuotovesistä aiheutuvan lisäener-giantarpeen ja kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen kasvua sekä pohtia verkoston omistussuhteiden, sään ääri-ilmiöiden ja taajuusmuuttajien vaikutuksia vuotovesien hallintaan. Lisäksi selvitetään voidaanko tuloksista tehdä valtakunnallisia yleistyksiä. Joensuun viemäriverkostossa jätevesien pumppaukseen käytetystä energiasta noin 43 prosent-tia kuluu vuotovesien pumppaukseen. Siitä aiheutuu vuosittain 480 MWh:n lisäenergiantarve, joka johtaa 106 tonnin hiilidioksidipäästöihin. Lisäenergiantarpeesta aiheutuva hiilidioksidi-päästö on pieni liikenteen aiheuttamaan päästöön verrattuna. Saneerauksilla voidaan saavuttaa 60 prosentin vähennys vuotovesimäärään. Tavoitteeksi tulisi asettaa keskusta-alueella olevien sekaviemäreiden korvaaminen erillisviemäreillä esimerkiksi lähimmän 10 vuoden aikana ja vuotovesimäärän yleinen vähentäminen koko verkoston alueella. Ilmastonmuutoksen myötä yleistyvät rankkasateet lisäävät vuotovesimäärää etenkin sekaviemäröidyillä alueilla. Tämä korostaa sekaviemäröidyn verkoston korjaustoimenpiteiden tärkeyttä. Taajuusmuuttajien yleistyvä käyttö tasaa haitallisia virtaamapiikkejä. Optimaaliseksi säädetty pyörimisnopeus pienentää merkittävästi pumppujen energiankulutusta. Työstä saadut tulokset ovat valtakun-nallisella tasolla suuntaa antavia. Tarkemmat yleistykset vaativat useista erikokoisista verkos-toista tehtyjen vuotovesiselvitystulosten analysointia.

Response of Eastern Arabian Sea to Extreme climatic Events with Special Reference to Selected Pelagic Fishes

The thesis attempts to study the changes in oceanographic parameters associated with extreme climatic events,the influence of oceanographic as well as meteorological parameters on fishes.The characteristics of major pelagic fishes of southwest coast of India(Oil sardine and Indian mackerel) have been described here.A description on study area and period of study is also described .The impact of extreme climatic events on the oceanographic variability of Eastern Arabian Sea.The extreme climatic event,the Indian Ocean Dipole associated with EI Nino Southern Oscillation is taken into consideration.The variability in oil sardine and mackerel landings of southwest coast of India during the study period.The trend analysis of the landings has been done and also a prediction model is applied for the landings.The influence of environmental parameters on oil sardine as well as mackerel fishery has been explained .With regression analysis ,the significant relation between environmental parameters and fish landings are also been recognized.The prediction of landings is done with these environmental parameters.

Assessing adaptation – Climate change and indigenous livelihood in the Andes of Bolivia

Based on a case study of Charazani – Bolivia, this article outlines the understanding of adaptive strategies to cope with climate change and its impact on environmental and socioeconomic conditions that are affecting rural livelihoods. Mainly qualitative methods were used to collect and analyze data following the framework for vulnerability assessments of a socio-ecological system. Climate data reveals an increase of precipitation and temperature during the last decades. Furthermore the occurrence of extreme weather events, particularly drought, frost, hailstorms and consequently landslides and fire are increasing. Local testimonies highlight these events as the principle reasons for agricultural losses. This climatic variability and simultaneous social changes were identified as the drivers of vulnerability. Yet, several adaptive measures were identified at household, community and external levels in order to cope with such vulnerability; e.g. traditional techniques in agriculture and risk management. Gradually, farmers complement these activities with contemporary practices in agriculture, like intensification of land use, diversification of irrigation system and use of artificial fertilizers. As part of a recent trend community members are forced to search for new off-farm alternatives beyond agriculture for subsistence. Despite there is a correspondingly large array of possible adaptation measures that families are implementing, local testimonies point out, that farmers often do not have the capacity and neither the economical resources to mitigate the risk in agricultural production. Although several actions are already considered to promote further adaptive capacity, the current target is to improve existing livelihood strategies by reducing vulnerability to hazards induced by climate change.

Stable Isotope Analysis Reveals That Agricultural Habitat Provides an Important Dietary Component for Nonbreeding Dunlin

Although shorebirds spending the winter in temperate areas frequently use estuarine and supratidal (upland) feeding habitats, the relative contribution of each habitat to individual diets has not been directly quantified. We quantified the proportional use that Calidris alpina pacifica (Dunlin) made of estuarine vs. terrestrial farmland resources on the Fraser River Delta, British Columbia, using stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N) of blood from 268 Dunlin over four winters, 1997 through 2000. We tested for individual, age, sex, morphological, seasonal, and weather-related differences in dietary sources. Based on single- (δ13C) and dual-isotope mixing models, the agricultural habitat contributed approximately 38% of Dunlin diet averaged over four winters, with the balance from intertidal flats. However, there was a wide variation among individuals in the extent of agricultural feeding, ranging from about 1% to 95% of diet. Younger birds had a significantly higher terrestrial contribution to diet (43%) than did adults (35%). We estimated that 6% of adults and 13% of juveniles were obtaining at least 75% of their diet from terrestrial sources. The isotope data provided no evidence for sex or overall body size effects on the proportion of diet that is terrestrial in origin. The use of agricultural habitat by Dunlin peaked in early January. Adult Dunlin obtained a greater proportion of their diet terrestrially during periods of lower temperatures and high precipitation, whereas no such relationship existed for juveniles. Seasonal variation in the use of agricultural habitat suggests that it is used more during energetically stressful periods. The terrestrial farmland zone appears to be consistently important as a habitat for juveniles, but for adults it may provide an alternative feeding site used as a buffer against starvation during periods of extreme weather. Loss or reduction of agricultural habitat adjacent to estuaries may negatively impact shorebird fitness, with juveniles disproportionately affected.

Summertime precipitation variability over europe and its links to atmospheric dynamics and evaporation

Gridded monthly precipitation data for 1979-2006 from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project are used to investigate interannual summer precipitation variability over Europe and its links to regional atmospheric circulation and evaporation. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of European precipitation, explaining 17.2%-22.8% of its total variance, is stable during the summer season and is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The spatialtemporal structure of the second EOF mode is less stable and shows monthtomonth variations during the summer season. This mode is linked to the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern. Analysis of links between leading EOF modes of regional precipitation and evaporation has revealed a significant link between precipitation and evaporation from the European land surface, thus, indicating an important role of the local processes in summertime precipitation variability over Europe. Weaker, but statistically significant links have been found for evaporation from the surface of the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas. Finally, in contrast to winter, no significant links have been revealed between European precipitation and evaporation in the North Atlantic during the summer season.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

The global response to tropical heating in the Madden-Julian oscillation during the northern winter

A life cycle of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was constructed, based on 21 years of outgoing long-wave radiation data. Regression maps of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the northern winter show statistically significant upper-tropospheric equatorial wave patterns linked to the tropical convection anomalies, and extratropical wave patterns over the North Pacific, North America, the Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and South America. To assess the cause of the circulation anomalies, a global primitive-equation model was initialized with the observed three-dimensional (3D) winter climatological mean flow and forced with a time-dependent heat source derived from the observed MJO anomalies. A model MJO cycle was constructed from the global response to the heating, and both the tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies generally matched the observations well. The equatorial wave patterns are established in a few days, while it takes approximately two weeks for the extratropical patterns to appear. The model response is robust and insensitive to realistic changes in damping and basic state. The model tropical anomalies are consistent with a forced equatorial Rossby–Kelvin wave response to the tropical MJO heating, although it is shifted westward by approximately 20° longitude relative to observations. This may be due to a lack of damping processes (cumulus friction) in the regions of convective heating. Once this shift is accounted for, the extratropical response is consistent with theories of Rossby wave forcing and dispersion on the climatological flow, and the pattern correlation between the observed and modelled extratropical flow is up to 0.85. The observed tropical and extratropical wave patterns account for a significant fraction of the intraseasonal circulation variance, and this reproducibility as a response to tropical MJO convection has implications for global medium-range weather prediction. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. I: A novel detection method

Wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis and linear wave theory are combined in a novel method to quantitatively estimate equatorial wave activity in the tropical lower stratosphere. The method requires temperature and velocity observations that are regularly spaced in latitude, longitude and time; it is therefore applied to the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset (ERA-15). Signals consistent with idealized Kelvin and Rossby-gravity waves are found at wavenumbers and frequencies in agreement with previous studies. When averaged over 1981-93, the Kelvin wave explains approximately 1 K-2 of temperature variance on the equator at 100 hPa, while the Rossby-gravity wave explains approximately 1 m(2)s(-2) of meridional wind variance. Some inertio-gravity wave and equatorial Rossby wave signals are also found; however the resolution of ERA-15 is not sufficient for the method to provide an accurate climatology of waves with high meridional structure.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.