Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Influence of external weld flash on the in-plane plane-strain formability of friction stir welded sheets

The main aim of the present work is to analyze the influence of external weld flash on the formability of friction stir welding sheets through in-plane plane-strain formability tests. The load-extension behavior and forming limit strains are measured to quantify the formability. The influence of friction stir welding parameters on the height of weld flash was also studied. The base materials used for welding trials are AA6061T6 and AA5052H32 alloy sheets of 2.1-mm thickness. It is observed that the influence of external weld flash on the maximum load and total extension for all the friction stir welding conditions is negligible. The effect of weld flash on the limiting major strain is also insignificant. But the presence of weld flash has changed the limiting minor strain, more toward plane-strain condition, indicating the change in strain-path toward plane-strain. This is due to the strain taken by weld flash, along with the major strain, minor strain, and thickness strain in the friction stir welding sheet plane because of constancy of volume. The formation of weld flash and its height are affected synergistically by the axial force and temperature development during friction stir welding. The higher the axial force and temperature, the higher the flash height.

Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Climate change in response to a change in external forcing can be understood in terms of fast response to the imposed forcing and slow feedback associated with surface temperature change. Previous studies have investigated the characteristics of fast response and slow feedback for different forcing agents. Here we examine to what extent that fast response and slow feedback derived from time-mean results of climate model simulations can be used to infer total climate change. To achieve this goal, we develop a multivariate regression model of climate change, in which the change in a climate variable is represented by a linear combination of its sensitivity to CO2 forcing, solar forcing, and change in global mean surface temperature. We derive the parameters of the regression model using time-mean results from a set of HadCM3L climate model step-forcing simulations, and then use the regression model to emulate HadCM3L-simulated transient climate change. Our results show that the regression model emulates well HadCM3L-simulated temporal evolution and spatial distribution of climate change, including surface temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, cloudiness, and radiative fluxes under transient CO2 and/or solar forcing scenarios. Our findings suggest that temporal and spatial patterns of total change for the climate variables considered here can be represented well by the sum of fast response and slow feedback. Furthermore, by using a simple 1-D heat-diffusion climate model, we show that the temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change under transient forcing scenarios can be emulated well using information from step-forcing simulations alone.

Transient Ventilation Dynamics Following a Change in Strength of a Point Source of Heat

We investigate the transient ventilation flow within a confined ventilated space, with high- and low-level openings, when the strength of a low-level point source of heat is changed instantaneously. The steady-flow regime in the space involves a turbulent buoyant plume, which rises from the point source to a well-mixed warm upper layer. The steady-state height of the interface between this layer and the lower layer of exterior fluid is independent of the heat flux, but the upper layer becomes progressively warmer with heat flux. New analogue laboratory experiments of the transient adjustment between steady states identify that if the heat flux is increased, the continuing plume propagates to the top of the room forming a new, warmer layer. This layer gradually deepens, and as the turbulent plume entrains fluid from the original warm layer, the original layer is gradually depleted and disappears, and a new steady state is established. In contrast, if the source buoyancy flux is decreased, the continuing plume is cooler than the original plume, so that on reaching the interface it is of intermediate density between the original warm layer and the external fluid. The plume supplies a new intermediate layer, which gradually deepens with the continuing flow. In turn, the original upper layer becomes depleted, both as a result of being vented through the upper opening of the space, but also due to some penetrative entrainment of this layer by the plume, as the plume overshoots the interface before falling back to supply the new intermediate layer. We develop quantitative models which are in good accord with our experimental data, by combining classical plume theory with models of the penetrative entrainment for the case of a decrease in heating. Typically, we find that the effect of penetrative entrainment on the density of the intruding layer is relatively weak, provided the change in source strength is sufficiently large. However, penetrative entrainment measurably increases the rate at which the depth of the draining layer decreases. We conclude with a discussion of the importance of these results for the control of naturally ventilated spaces.

The catastrophic change of steady flow in collapsible tubes

Based on a general background we have developed a mechanical model of the catastrophic change of steady flow in collapsible tubes and got the critical conditions for the catastrophic change analyzing the effects of viscosity, gravity and the longitudinal gradient of external pressure. Several simple flows have been discussed. Furthermore, we conducted three types of model experiments, Results agree with the theoretical critical conditions qualitatively.

Agent based modeling of energy networks

Attempts to model any present or future power grid face a huge challenge because a power grid is a complex system, with feedback and multi-agent behaviors, integrated by generation, distribution, storage and consumption systems, using various control and automation computing systems to manage electricity flows. Our approach to modeling is to build upon an established model of the low voltage electricity network which is tested and proven, by extending it to a generalized energy model. But, in order to address the crucial issues of energy efficiency, additional processes like energy conversion and storage, and further energy carriers, such as gas, heat, etc., besides the traditional electrical one, must be considered. Therefore a more powerful model, provided with enhanced nodes or conversion points, able to deal with multidimensional flows, is being required. This article addresses the issue of modeling a local multi-carrier energy network. This problem can be considered as an extension of modeling a low voltage distribution network located at some urban or rural geographic area. But instead of using an external power flow analysis package to do the power flow calculations, as used in electric networks, in this work we integrate a multiagent algorithm to perform the task, in a concurrent way to the other simulation tasks, and not only for the electric fluid but also for a number of additional energy carriers. As the model is mainly focused in system operation, generation and load models are not developed.

Adapting to climate change: Combining economics and geomorphology in coastal policy

How is climate change affecting our coastal environment? How can coastal communities adapt to sea level rise and increased storm risk? These questions have garnered tremendous interest from scientists and policy makers alike, as the dynamic coastal environment is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Over half the world population lives and works in a coastal zone less than 120 miles wide, thereby being continuously affected by the changes in the coastal environment [6]. Housing markets are directly influenced by the physical processes that govern coastal systems. Beach towns like Oak Island in North Carolina (NC) face severe erosion, and the tax assesed value of one coastal property fell by 93% in 2007 [9]. With almost ninety percent of the sandy beaches in the US facing moderate to severe erosion [8], coastal communities often intervene to stabilize the shoreline and hold back the sea in order to protect coastal property and infrastructure. Beach nourishment, which is the process of rebuilding a beach by periodically replacing an eroding section of the beach with sand dredged from another location, is a policy for erosion control in many parts of the US Atlantic and Pacific coasts [3]. Beach nourishment projects in the United States are primarily federally funded and implemented by the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) after a benefit-cost analysis. Benefits from beach nourishment include reduction in storm damage and recreational benefits from a wider beach. Costs would include the expected cost of construction, present value of periodic maintenance, and any external cost such as the environmental cost associated with a nourishment project (NOAA). Federal appropriations for nourishment totaled $787 million from 1995 to 2002 [10]. Human interventions to stabilize shorelines and physical coastal dynamics are strongly coupled. The value of the beach, in the form of storm protection and recreation amenities, is at least partly capitalized into property values. These beach values ultimately influence the benefit-cost analysis in support of shoreline stabilization policy, which, in turn, affects the shoreline dynamics. This paper explores the policy implications of this circularity. With a better understanding of the physical-economic feedbacks, policy makers can more effectively design climate change adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Long Run Trends in Energy-Related External Costs

30 p.

Observations on the influence of external factors on the duration of the embryonic development and on the molting rhythm of Cyclops vicinus. [Translation from: Oecologia 7, 342-355, 1971.]

Investigations on the control of the embryonic and post-embryonic development of arthropods have formed an intensively studied field of zoological research for a long time, Here in especially favourable cases the causal chain from the operation of external factors on the influence of physiological mechanisms, eg. of the hormone variety, is known right through to its primary influences. A comparative approach to the relevant questions was in the main only made in the case of the insects. For crustacea , investigations are available almost exclusively only for the malacostraca. This study examines the influence of the factors of temperature and photoperiod on the entire development of Cyclops vicinus. Tests were made on whether the light-darkness change serves as a regulator for a possible existing molting rhythm - a question which for the entire arthropods has been settled only very rarely. The basic material for the cultures that were examined originates from Lake Constance.

Optimization of nonvolatile holographic recording by application of an external electric field

The dependences of the recording properties of LiNbO3:Fe:Mn crystals on an external electric field (applied in the recording or fixing phase of the nonvolatile holographic recording process) are numerically investigated and the optimal conditions for applying an external electric field in this two-step process of nonvolatile holographic recording are discussed in detail. Significant improvement of the photorefractive performance has been found and experimental verifications using a small external electric field are described. Moreover, direct measures relating to the dominant photovoltaic mechanism in the doubly doped LiNbO3 crystals and the unconventional grating-enhanced fixing are revealed by applying an external electric field in the recording and the fixing phases, respectively.

'The highly nervous system of the English Lakes': aquatic ecosystem sensitivity to external changes, as demonstrated by diatoms.

The author reviews the stratigraphic diatom profile of Cumbrian lakes since the last glaciation. Knowledge of both present and previous interglacials suggests that a natural cycle of change is imposed on all lakes. The nature of inwashed material is dependant on climatic and natural soilcycles and this affects the water quality and sensitive aquatic biota. Anthropogenic effects are superimposed upon this with forest clearance and pollution. Whilst some Cumbrian diatom profiles extend over the entire post glacial, others cover only detailed sections relating to particular problems. Causes and effect of recent changes in lakes can be studied using indicator species but palaeocology contributes greatly to understanding of long term changes.

a flexible negotiation model for an agent-based software process modelling

Our Agent-based Software Process Modelling (ASPM) approach describes a software process as a set of cooperative agents. Negotiation is the way in which the agents construct their cooperative relations, and thus the software process. Currently, most negotiation models use a fixed negotiation protocol and fixed strategies. In order to achieve the flexibility that the negotiation of the agents in ASPM requires, we propose a negotiation model NM-PA. NM-PA mainly includes a generic negotiation protocol and some rules, which possibly change in different negotiation processes. By changing the rules, the model can support multi-protocols and multi-decision-making strategies at a lower cost.

Real-time far distance micro-vibration measurement using an external cavity semiconductor laser interferometer with a feedback control system

An external cavity semiconductor laser interferometer used to measure far distance micro-vibration in real time is proposed. In the interferometer, a single longitudinal mode and excellent coherent characteristic grating external cavity semiconductor laser is constructed and acted as a light source and a phase compensator. Its coherent length exceeds 200 meters. The angle between normal and incidence beam of the far object is allowed to change in definite range during the measurement with this interferometer, and this makes the far distance interference measurement easier and more convenient. Also, it is not required to keep the amplitudes of the first and second harmonic components equal, and then the dynamic range is increased. A feedback control system is used to compensate the phase disturbance between the two interference beams introduced by environmental vibration.

Conformational and orientational analyses of 2,2 '-bithiophene under interaction of external electric field constructed by point charges

The fully relaxed single-bond torsional potentials and orientation-related rotational potentials of 2,2'-bithiophene (BT) under the interaction of an external electric field (EF) constructed by point charges have been evaluated with semi-empirical AMI and PM3 calculations. The torsional potentials are sensitive to both EF strength and direction. While the EF is parallel to the molecular long axis, the torsional barrier around C-x-C-x' bond obviously rises with increasing the EF strength, whereas the relative energies of syn and anti minima show a slight change. The interaction between the EF and the induced dipole moment has been proposed to elucidate this observation. On the other hand, the relative energy difference between the syn and anti minima shows an obvious change, while the EF is perpendicular to the molecular long axis. This feature has been ascribed to the interaction between the EF and the permanent dipole moment of BT. Furthermore, conformational and orientational analyses in two dimensions have been carried out by changing the torsional and rotational angles in the different EF. The conformation and orientation of a gas-phase BT in the EF are governed by both the above factors.

External field induced crystallization of poly(3-dodecylthiophene)

In order to investigate the effect of external field on the crystallization behavior of poly(3-dodecylthiopliene) (P3DDT), the samples were recrystallized with different electrostatic field intensity, different pressure and different solidification direction in temperature gradient field. Measurements of differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffraction were operated to characterize these samples for analysis. The results suggest that after recrystallization, whether the external field is added or not, a more compact packing of molecular chains in P3DDT could be obtained without the change of the crystal structure model. Moreover, the addition of electrostatic field has greater effects on the crystallization of rigid main chains than on that of flexible side chains, Merely great pressure field can effect the rearrangements of molecular chains greatly. As for the temperature gradient field induced crystallization, different oriented solidification direction will lead to different effects on the compact degree and perfect degree of molecular chains packing,