Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

The preferences of private equity investors in selecting target acquisitions : an international investigation

This study investigates the characteristics and attributes that private equity investors prefer when selecting target acquisitions. These characteristics are examined against a matched sample of firms subject to corporate acquisitions via tender/merger offer during 2000-2009, across seven countries: Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, the USA, France, Germany and Sweden. We show that firm-specific characteristics are more influential in target selection than external or institutional variables. In particular, private equity targets exhibit lower stock volatility and long-term growth prospects, are larger, and have greater abnormal operating income relative to tender/merger offer target firms. Further, private equity bidders exhibit 'home bias', implying that familiarity motivates target selection. Institutional factors remain largely insignificant across all tests.

Researching quality and equity in assessment for improved learner outcomes

Quality and equity issues as they relate to assessment practices and policy are becoming increasingly important as Australia introduces a national curriculum and achievement standards. In a context of high-stakes accountability, concerns regarding equity and quality have important implications for teachers‘ practice for the improvement of learner outcomes. This article is based on three research projects that were conducted over the past four years and were funded by the Australian Federal Government. The research focus, emergent questions, the educational contexts, and the rationale for the studies are discussed prior to the presentation of the analysis of the research findings and the implications for teachers‘ practice and policy reform.

Remove, rehabilitate, return? The use and effectiveness of behaviour schools in New South Wales, Australia

Research indicates that enrolments in separate special educational settings for students with disruptive behaviour have increased in a number of educational jurisdictions internationally. Recent analysis of school enrolment data has identified a similar increase in the New South Wales (NSW) government school sector; however, questions have been raised as to their use and effectiveness. To situate the NSW experiment with behaviour schools in a broader context, the paper begins with a review of the international research literature. This is followed by a discussion of the NSW experience with the aim of identifying parallels and gaps in the research. The paper concludes by outlining important questions and directions for research to better understand and improve the educational experiences and outcomes of disruptive disaffected students in Australia’s largest school system.

Towards equity in the futures market : curriculum as a condition of access

This article provides a consideration of the problem of equity in education. In the first part of the discussion, the author draws on philosophical and sociological literatures to consider what equity means and its implications for education. Drawing on work by Burbules, Lord & Sherman, she looks to curriculum as a condition of access and the importance of learning support structures in bringing about equitable educational outcomes, conceived in terms of Amy Gutmanns’s democratic threshold. The paper offers a conceptual-theoretical model for thinking about the resourcing and curricular requirements for equity in contemporary liberal democratic societies, contrasting the social and economic policy mixes employed by governments situated at different points along a liberty/equality continuum.

Modeling destination brand equity in an emerging long haul market

The destination branding literature emerged as recently as 1998, and there remains a dearth of empirical data that tests the effectiveness of brand campaigns over time. This paper reports the results of an investigation into consumer-based brand equity for Australia as a long haul destination in an emerging South American market. In spite of the high level of academic interest in the measurement of perceptions of destinations since the 1970s, few previous studies have examined perceptions held by South American consumers. Findings suggest that destination brand awareness, brand image, and brand value are positively related to brand loyalty for a long-haul destination. The results also indicate that Australia is a more compelling destination brand for previous visitors compared to non-visitors.

Measuring a destination’s brand equity between 2003 and 2012 using the consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) hierarchy

Given the increasing investments being made in brand development by destination marketing organisations (DMO) since the 1990s, including rebranding and repositioning, more research is needed to enhance understanding of how to effectively monitor destination brand performance over time. This paper reports the results of a study of brand performance of a competitive set of destinations, in their most important market, between 2003 and 2012. Brand performance was measured from the perspective of consumer perceptions, based on the concept of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE). A structured questionnaire was administered to different samples in 2003, 2007 and 2012. The results indicated minimal changes in perceptions of the five destinations over the 10 year period. Due to the commonality of challenges faced by DMOs worldwide, it is suggested the CBBE hierarchy provides destination marketers with a practical tool for evaluating brand performance over time; in terms of measures of effectiveness of past marketing communications, as well as indicators of future performance. In addition, and importantly, CBBE also provides transparent accountability measures for stakeholders. While the topic of destination image has been one of the most popular in the tourism literature, there has been a paucity of research published in relation to the temporal aspect of consumer perceptions. This is a rare investigation into the measurement of perceptions of destinations over a 10 year period.

The cost of being ethical : evidence from Islamic equity funds

This paper examines the relationship between financial performance and ethical screening intensity of a special class of ethical funds that is rooted in Islamic values – Islamic equity funds (IEFs). These faith-based ethical funds screen investments on compliance with Islamic values where conventional interest expense (riba), gambling (maysir), excessive uncertainty (gharar), and non-ethical (non-halal) products are prohibited. We test whether these extra screens affect the financial performance of IEFs relative to non-Islamic funds. Based on a large survivorship-free international sample of 387 Islamic funds, our results show that IEFs on average underperform conventional funds by 40 basis points per month, or 4.8% per year (supporting the underperformance hypothesis). While Islamic funds do not generally perform better during crisis periods, they outperformed conventional funds during the recent sub-prime crisis (supporting the outperformance hypothesis). Using holdings-based measures for ethical screening intensity, results show IEFs that apply more intensive screening perform worse, suggesting that there is a cost to being ethical.

Can a “Blue Sky” return to Indian megacities?

Deterioration of air quality in Indian megacities (Delhi, Mumbai or Kolkata) is much more significant than that observed in the megacities of developed countries. Densely packed high-rise buildings restrict the self-cleaning capabilities of Indian megacities. Also, the ever growing number of on-road vehicles, resuspension of the dust, and anthropogenic activities exacerbate the levels of ambient air pollution, which is in turn breathed by urban dwellers. Pollution levels exceeding the standards on a regular basis often result in a notable increase in morbidity and mortality. This article discusses the challenges faced by Indian megacities in their quest for sustainable growth, without compromising the air quality and urban way of life.

Destination brand equity for Australia : testing a model of CBBE in short haul and long haul markets

The study of destination brand performance measurement has only emerged in earnest as a field in the tourism literature since 2007. The concept of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) is gaining favour from services marketing researchers as an alternative to the traditional ‘net-present-value of future earnings’ method of measuring brand equity. The perceptions-based CBBE model also appears suitable for examining destination brand performance, where a financial brand equity valuation on a destination marketing organisation’s (DMO) balance sheet is largely irrelevant. This is the first study to test and compare the model in both short and long haul markets. The paper reports the results of tests of a CBBE model for Australia in a traditional short haul market (New Zealand) and an emerging long haul market (Chile). The data from both samples indicated destination brand salience, brand image, and brand value are positively related to purchase intent for Australia in these two disparate markets.

International stock market linkages : are overnight returns on the U.S. Market informative?

Based on the theory of international stock market co-movements, this study shows that a profitable trading strategy can be developed. The U.S. market return is considered as overnight information by ordinary investors in the Asian and the European stock markets, and opening prices in local markets reflect the U.S. overnight return. However, smart traders would either judge the impact of overnight information more correctly, or predict unreleased information. Thus, the difference between expected opening prices based on the U.S. return and actual opening prices is counted as smart traders’ prediction power, which is either a buy or a sell signal. Using index futures price data from 12 countries from 2000 to 2011, cumulative returns on the trading strategy are calculated with taking into account transaction costs. The empirical results show that the proposed trading strategy generates higher riskadjusted returns than that of the benchmarks in 12 sample countries. The trading performances for the Asian markets surpass those for the European markets because the U.S. return is the only overnight information for the Asian markets whereas the Asian markets returns are additional information to the European investors.

Conservatism, disclosure and the cost of equity capital

This study seeks insights into the economic consequences of accounting conservatism by examining the relation between conservatism and cost of equity capital. Appealing to the analytical and empirical literatures, we posit an inverse relation. Importantly, we also posit that the strength of the relation is conditional on the firm’s information environment, being the strongest for firms with high information asymmetry and the weakest (potentially negligible) for firms with low information asymmetry. Based on a sample of US-listed entities, we find, as predicted, an inverse relation between conservatism and the cost of equity capital, but further, that this relation is diminished for firms with low information asymmetry environments. This evidence indicates that there are economic benefits associated with the adoption of conservative reporting practices and leads us to conclude that conservatism has a positive role in accounting principles and practices, despite its increasing rejection by accounting standard setters.