The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Conditional male dimorphism and alternative reproductive tactics in a Neotropical arachnid (Opiliones)

In arthropods, most cases of morphological dimorphism within males are the result of a conditional evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) with status-dependent tactics. In conditionally male-dimorphic species, the status` distributions of male morphs often overlap, and the environmentally cued threshold model (ET) states that the degree of overlap depends on the genetic variation in the distribution of the switchpoints that determine which morph is expressed in each value of status. Here we describe male dimorphism and alternative mating behaviors in the harvestman Serracutisoma proximum. Majors express elongated second legs and use them in territorial fights; minors possess short second legs and do not fight, but rather sneak into majors` territories and copulate with egg-guarding females. The static allometry of second legs reveals that major phenotype expression depends on body size (status), and that the switchpoint underlying the dimorphism presents a large amount of genetic variation in the population, which probably results from weak selective pressure on this trait. With a mark-recapture study, we show that major phenotype expression does not result in survival costs, which is consistent with our hypothesis that there is weak selection on the switchpoint. Finally, we demonstrate that switchpoint is independent of status distribution. In conclusion, our data support the ET model prediction that the genetic correlation between status and switchpoint is low, allowing the status distribution to evolve or to fluctuate seasonally, without any effect on the position of the mean switchpoint.

Commutative Moufang loops and alternative algebras

We describe bases of free commutative Moufang loop with seven generators and calculate the order of this loop. (c) 2011 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Push or pull? : The relationship between quality of care and use of complementary and alternative medicine among patients with lung cancer in Sweden

Little is known about relationships between quality of care (QoC) and use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) among patients with lung cancer (LC). Purpose: This study examines CAM-use among patients with LC in Sweden, associations between QoC and CAM-use among these patients, and reported aspects of LC-care perceived as particularly positive and negative by patients, as well as suggestions for improving QoC. Methods: Survey data from 94 patient members of the Swedish LC patient organization about CAM-use and QoC as measured by the instrument “Quality from the patient’s perspective” were analyzed. Results: Fifty (53%) LC-patients used CAM, with 40 of the CAM-users reporting that CAM helped them. The most common CAMs used were dietary supplements and natural remedies, followed by prayer. Significantly more patients reported using prayer and meditation for cure than was the case for other types of CAM used. Less than half the CAM-users reported having spoken with staff from the biomedical health care system about their CAM-use. Patients provided numerous suggestions for improving LC-care in a variety of areas, aiming at a more effective and cohesive care trajectory. No differences in QoC were found between CAM-users and non-CAM-users, but differences in CAM-use i.e. type of CAM, reasons for using CAM, and CAM-provider consulted could be associated with different experiences of care. Conclusions: It is important to recognize that CAM-users are not a homogeneous group but might seek different types of CAMs and CAM-providers in different situations depending on experiences of care.

Nurses’ and patients’ communication in smoking cessation at nurse-led COPD clinics in primary health care

Background: Smokers with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have high nicotine dependence making it difficult to quit smoking. Motivational interviewing (MI) is a method that is used in stimulating motivation and behavioral changes. Objective: To describe smoking cessation communication between patients and registered nurses trained in MI in COPD nurse-led clinics in Swedish primary health care. Methods: A prospective observational study with structured quantitative content analyses of the communication between six nurses with basic education in MI and 13 patients in non-smoking consultations. Results: Only to a small extent did nurses’ evoke patients’ reasons for change, stimulate collaboration, and support patients’ autonomy. Nurses provided information, asked closed questions, and made simple reflections. Patients’ communicationwasmainly neutral and focusing on reasons for and against smoking. It was uncommon for patients to be committed and take steps toward smoking cessation. Conclusion: The nurses did not adhere to the principles of MI in smoking cessation, and the patients focused to a limited extent on how to quit smoking. Practice implications: To make patients more active, the nurses need more education and continuous training in motivational communication.

Economic stagnation and alternative development strategies

The focus of my paper is the presentation of some thoughts on overcoming economic stagnation, with reference to the case of Mexico. In Section 2, I will describe the reasons why the policies of financial opening based on the Washington Consensus create endogenous tendencies toward economic stagnation and overvaluation of currencies. Section 3 offers a concise outline of a possible alternative development project for Mexico. Section 4 presents some proposals regarding monetary, foreign exchange, and fiscal policy oriented toward reviving economic growth. Finally, in Section 5, I present some conclusions.

Visual and acoustic communication in the Brazilian torrent frog, Hylodes asper (Anura : Leptodactylidae)

We studied the signaling, territorial, and courtship behaviors of the diurnal frog Hylodes asper. Visual and acoustic communication were used during intraspecific interactions involving males, females. and subadults. Hylodes aspcr has a complex visual communication system, of which foot-flagging is the most distinctive display observed in the repertoire of visual signals. The splash zone produced by the waterfalls and torrents creates a high, nearly constant, humidity near the streams, reducing the risk of desiccation which enables the diurnal activity of H. asper. Although the ambient sound pressure levels (SPL), measured at the calling sites, are similar to the SPL of the advertisement calls, the high-pitched calls of H, asper, are spectrally different from the noise produced by the water current. Thus. The ambient noise produced by the water current may not interfere significantly with the acoustic communication of this species. The noise and the nearly constant and high humidity produced by the torrents and waterfalls, along with the availability of Light, probably favored the evolution of contrasting colors and visual communication in H. asper: Males of H, aspcr excavate underwater chambers that are probably used to shelter the eggs and to prevent the clutch from being drifted downstream.

The plant energy-dissipating mitochondrial systems: Depicting the genomic structure and the expression profiles of the gene families of uncoupling protein and alternative oxidase in monocots and dicots

The simultaneous existence of alternative oxidases and uncoupling proteins in plants has raised the question as to why plants need two energy-dissipating systems with apparently similar physiological functions. A probably complete plant uncoupling protein gene family is described and the expression profiles of this family compared with the multigene family of alternative oxidases in Arabidopsis thaliana and sugarcane (Saccharum sp.) employed as dicot and monocot models, respectively. In total, six uncoupling protein genes, AtPUMP1-6, were recognized within the Arabidopsis genome and five (SsPUMP1-5) in a sugarcane EST database. The recombinant AtPUMP5 protein displayed similar biochemical properties as AtPUMP1. Sugarcane possessed four Arabidopsis AOx1-type orthologues (SsAOx1a-1d); no sugarcane orthologue corresponding to Arabidopsis AOx2-type genes was identified. Phylogenetic and expression analyses suggested that AtAOx1d does not belong to the AOx1-type family but forms a new (AOx3-type) family. Tissue-enriched expression profiling revealed that uncoupling protein genes were expressed more ubiquitously than the alternative oxidase genes. Distinct expression patterns among gene family members were observed between monocots and dicots and during chilling stress. These findings suggest that the members of each energy-dissipating system are subject to different cell or tissue/organ transcriptional regulation. As a result, plants may respond more flexibly to adverse biotic and abiotic conditions, in which oxidative stress is involved. © The Author [2006]. Published by Oxford University Press [on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology]. All rights reserved.

Tourism for whom?: Different paths to development and alternative experiments in Brazil

The tourism policies pursued by the Brazilian government since the 1990s have not produced the benefits that were expected from mass tourism. The example of two very successful cases of community-based tourism, stressing paths rooted in a development model that is fair and environmentally responsible, shows that tourism development can improve the quality of life in communities that receive an influx of tourists provided that the local community is taken into account and the planning and implementation of such development focus on creating opportunities and benefits for its members. © 2008 Latin American Perpectives.

Programa de educação familiar a distância em linguagem e comunicação suplementar e alternativa

Pós-graduação em Educação - FFC

The Use of Vocabulary in an Eighth Grade Mathematics Classroom: Improving Usage of Mathematics Vocabulary in Oral and Written Communication

In this action research study of my mathematics classroom of eighth grade students, I investigated the use of mathematics vocabulary by focusing on improving the usage of this vocabulary in both oral and written communication. I discovered oral communication tended to show more improvements compared to written communication done by the same group of students. As a result of this research, I plan to continue to focus my teaching on the use of mathematics vocabulary in an effort to help my students gain a greater understanding of the daily use of that vocabulary.