Identificação de danos estruturais via método de Monte Carlo com cadeias de Markov

O presente trabalho apresenta um estudo referente à aplicação da abordagem Bayesiana como técnica de solução do problema inverso de identificação de danos estruturais, onde a integridade da estrutura é continuamente descrita por um parâmetro estrutural denominado parâmetro de coesão. A estrutura escolhida para análise é uma viga simplesmente apoiada do tipo Euler-Bernoulli. A identificação de danos é baseada em alterações na resposta impulsiva da estrutura, provocadas pela presença dos mesmos. O problema direto é resolvido através do Método de Elementos Finitos (MEF), que, por sua vez, é parametrizado pelo parâmetro de coesão da estrutura. O problema de identificação de danos é formulado como um problema inverso, cuja solução, do ponto de vista Bayesiano, é uma distribuição de probabilidade a posteriori para cada parâmetro de coesão da estrutura, obtida utilizando-se a metodologia de amostragem de Monte Carlo com Cadeia de Markov. As incertezas inerentes aos dados medidos serão contempladas na função de verossimilhança. Três estratégias de solução são apresentadas. Na Estratégia 1, os parâmetros de coesão da estrutura são amostrados de funções densidade de probabilidade a posteriori que possuem o mesmo desvio padrão. Na Estratégia 2, após uma análise prévia do processo de identificação de danos, determina-se regiões da viga potencialmente danificadas e os parâmetros de coesão associados à essas regiões são amostrados a partir de funções de densidade de probabilidade a posteriori que possuem desvios diferenciados. Na Estratégia 3, após uma análise prévia do processo de identificação de danos, apenas os parâmetros associados às regiões identificadas como potencialmente danificadas são atualizados. Um conjunto de resultados numéricos é apresentado levando-se em consideração diferentes níveis de ruído para as três estratégias de solução apresentadas.

Otimização multi-objetivo de projetos de redes de transporte dutoviário de gás natural

Dutos de transmissão são tubulações especialmente desenvolvidas para transportar produtos diversos a longas distâncias e representam a forma mais segura e econômica de transporte para grandes quantidades de fluidos. Os dutos de gás natural, denominados gasodutos, são usados para transportar o gás desde os campos de produção até os centros consumidores, onde o gás é inserido em redes de distribuição para entrega aos consumidores finais. Os gasodutos de transporte apresentam diversas características de monopólio natural, que são o principal argumento econômico para sua regulação. A regulação visa garantir que esta atividade seja explorada de maneira eficiente, refletindo em tarifas de transporte justas para os consumidores e que proporcionem o retorno adequado aos investidores, levando-se em consideração a quantidade de gás transportado. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo propor metodologias de otimização multi-objetivo de projetos de redes de gasodutos de transporte, envolvendo métodos a posteriori. O problema de otimização formulado contempla restrições associadas ao escoamento do gás e o comportamento das estações de compressão. A solução do problema fornece um conjunto de projetos ótimos de redes de transporte em função da maximização da quantidade de gás natural transportado e da minimização da tarifa associada a esse serviço. A ferramenta foi aplicada a diversos estudos de caso com configurações típicas da indústria de transporte de gás natural. Os resultados mostraram que as metodologias propostas são capazes de fornecer subsídios que permitem ao tomador de decisão do ponto de vista regulatório realizar uma análise de trade-off entre a quantidade de gás transportado e a tarifa, buscando assim atender ao interesse da sociedade em relação à exploração do serviço de transporte

The use of syntax and multiple alternatives in the VODIS voice operated database inquiry system

The paper describes the architecture of VODIS, a voice operated database inquiry system, and presents some experiments which investigate the effects on performance of varying the level of a priori syntactic constraints. The VODIS system includes a novel mechanism for incorporating context-free grammatical constraints directly into the word recognition algorithm. This allows the degree of a priori constraint to be smoothly varied and provides for the controlled generation of multiple alternatives. The results show that when the spoken input deviates from the predefined task grammar, a combination of weak a priori syntax rules in conjunction with full a posteriori parsing on a lattice of alternative word matches provides the most robust recognition performance. © 1991.

Competitive training in hidden Markov models

The use of hidden Markov models is placed in a connectionist framework, and an alternative approach to improving their ability to discriminate between classes is described. Using a network style of training, a measure of discrimination based on the a posteriori probability of state occupation is proposed, and the theory for its optimization using error back-propagation and gradient ascent is presented. The method is shown to be numerically well behaved, and results are presented which demonstrate that when using a simple threshold test on the probability of state occupation, the proposed optimization scheme leads to improved recognition performance.

Physiological modelling for improved reliability in silhouette-driven gradient-based hand tracking

We present a gradient-based motion capture system that robustly tracks a human hand, based on abstracted visual information - silhouettes. Despite the ambiguity in the visual data and despite the vulnerability of gradient-based methods in the face of such ambiguity, we minimise problems related to misfit by using a model of the hand's physiology, which is entirely non-visual, subject-invariant, and assumed to be known a priori. By modelling seven distinct aspects of the hand's physiology we derive prior densities which are incorporated into the tracking system within a Bayesian framework. We demonstrate how the posterior is formed, and how our formulation leads to the extraction of the maximum a posteriori estimate using a gradient-based search. Our results demonstrate an enormous improvement in tracking precision and reliability, while also achieving near real-time performance. © 2009 IEEE.

Low “penetrance” of phylogenetic knowledge in mitochondrial disease studies

An up-to-date view of the worldwide mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) phylogeny together with an evaluation of the conservation of each site is a reliable tool for detecting errors in mtDNA studies and assessing the functional importance of alleged pathogenic mutations. However, most of the published studies on mitochondrial diseases make very little use of the phylogenetic knowledge that is currently available. This drawback has two inadvertent consequences: first, there is no sufficient a posteriori quality assessment of complete mtDNA sequencing efforts; and second, no feedback is provided for the general mtDNA database when apparently new mtDNA lineages are discovered. We demonstrate, by way of example, these issues by reanalysing three mtDNA sequencing attempts, two from Europe and another one from East Asia. To further validate our phylogenetic deductions, we completely sequenced two mtDNAs from healthy subjects that nearly match the mtDNAs of two patients, whose sequences gave problematic results. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A call for mtDNA data quality control in forensic science

There is increasing evidence that many of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) databases published in the fields of forensic science and molecular anthropology are flawed. An a posteriori phylogenetic analysis of the sequences could help to eliminate most of the errors and thus greatly improve data quality. However, previously published caveats and recommendations along these lines were not yet picked up by all researchers. Here we call for stringent quality control of mtDNA data by haplogroup-directed database comparisons. We take some problematic databases of East Asian mtDNAs, published in the Journal of Forensic Sciences and Forensic Science International, as examples to demonstrate the process of pinpointing obvious errors. Our results show that data sets are not only notoriously plagued by base shifts and artificial recombination but also by lab-specific phantom mutations, especially in the second hypervariable region (HVR-II). (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A critical reassessment of the role of mitochondria in tumorigenesis

Background Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is being analyzed by an increasing number of laboratories in order to investigate its potential role as an active marker of tumorigenesis in various types of cancer. Here we question the conclusions drawn in most of these investigations, especially those published in high-rank cancer research journals, under the evidence that a significant number of these medical mtDNA studies are based on obviously flawed sequencing results. Methods and Findings In our analyses, we take a phylogenetic approach and employ thorough database searches, which together have proven successful for detecting erroneous sequences in the fields of human population genetics and forensics. Apart from conceptual problems concerning the interpretation of mtDNA variation in tumorigenesis, in most cases, blocks of seemingly somatic mutations clearly point to contamination or sample mix-up and, therefore, have nothing to do with tumorigenesis. Conclusion The role of mitochondria in tumorigenesis remains unclarified. Our findings of laboratory errors in many contributions would represent only the tip of the iceberg since most published studies do not provide the raw sequence data for inspection, thus hindering a posteriori evaluation of the results. There is no precedent for such a concatenation of errors and misconceptions affecting a whole subfield of medical research.

A presumed joint pdf model for turbulent combustion with varying equivalence ratio

Modeling of the joint probability density function of the mixture fraction and progress variable with a given covariance value is studied. This modeling is validated using experimental and direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. A very good agreement with experimental data of turbulent stratified flames and DNS data of a lifted hydrogen jet flame is obtained. The effect of using this joint pdf modeling to calculate the mean reaction rate with a flamelet closure in Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) calculation of stratified flames is studied. The covariance effect is observed to be large within the flame brush. The results obtained from RANS calculations using this modeling for stratified jet- and rod-stabilized V-flames are discussed and compared to the measurements as a posteriori validation for the joint probability density function model with the flamelet closure. The agreement between the computed and measured values of flame and turbulence quantities is found to be good. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Two problems with variational expectation maximisation for time-series models

Variational methods are a key component of the approximate inference and learning toolbox. These methods fill an important middle ground, retaining distributional information about uncertainty in latent variables, unlike maximum a posteriori methods (MAP), and yet generally requiring less computational time than Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. In particular the variational Expectation Maximisation (vEM) and variational Bayes algorithms, both involving variational optimisation of a free-energy, are widely used in time-series modelling. Here, we investigate the success of vEM in simple probabilistic time-series models. First we consider the inference step of vEM, and show that a consequence of the well-known compactness property of variational inference is a failure to propagate uncertainty in time, thus limiting the usefulness of the retained distributional information. In particular, the uncertainty may appear to be smallest precisely when the approximation is poorest. Second, we consider parameter learning and analytically reveal systematic biases in the parameters found by vEM. Surprisingly, simpler variational approximations (such a mean-field) can lead to less bias than more complicated structured approximations.

Convex relaxation of mixture regression with efficient algorithms

We develop a convex relaxation of maximum a posteriori estimation of a mixture of regression models. Although our relaxation involves a semidefinite matrix variable, we reformulate the problem to eliminate the need for general semidefinite programming. In particular, we provide two reformulations that admit fast algorithms. The first is a max-min spectral reformulation exploiting quasi-Newton descent. The second is a min-min reformulation consisting of fast alternating steps of closed-form updates. We evaluate the methods against Expectation-Maximization in a real problem of motion segmentation from video data.

Interactive multi-objective particle swarm optimisation using decision space interaction

The most common approach to decision making in multi-objective optimisation with metaheuristics is a posteriori preference articulation. Increased model complexity and a gradual increase of optimisation problems with three or more objectives have revived an interest in progressively interactive decision making, where a human decision maker interacts with the algorithm at regular intervals. This paper presents an interactive approach to multi-objective particle swarm optimisation (MOPSO) using a novel technique to preference articulation based on decision space interaction and visual preference articulation. The approach is tested on a 2D aerofoil design case study and comparisons are drawn to non-interactive MOPSO. © 2013 IEEE.

支持向量机中引入后验概率的理论和方法研究

目前支持向量机解决模式识别问题是广大学者研究的热点，样本的后验概率在模式识别中至关重要，但是传统的支持向量机技术不提供后验概率．针对这一问题进行了３个方面的研究：①在给出样本点后验概率的基础上，将大规模优化问题分解成最大似然函数和最大分类边界两个小规模优化问题；②给出了一种新的用后验概率修正最优分离超平面的方法，并且分析了该新方法的合理性；③用图像分类的３组实例说明本方法的有效性．

Supervised Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model for Dimensionality Reduction

The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) has been identified to be an effective probabilistic approach for dimensionality reduction because it can obtain a low-dimensional manifold of a data set in an unsupervised fashion. Consequently, the GP-LVM is insufficient for supervised learning tasks (e. g., classification and regression) because it ignores the class label information for dimensionality reduction. In this paper, a supervised GP-LVM is developed for supervised learning tasks, and the maximum a posteriori algorithm is introduced to estimate positions of all samples in the latent variable space. We present experimental evidences suggesting that the supervised GP-LVM is able to use the class label information effectively, and thus, it outperforms the GP-LVM and the discriminative extension of the GP-LVM consistently. The comparison with some supervised classification methods, such as Gaussian process classification and support vector machines, is also given to illustrate the advantage of the proposed method.

Stochastic Refinement of the Visual Hull to Satisfy Photometric and Silhouette Consistency Constraints

An iterative method for reconstructing a 3D polygonal mesh and color texture map from multiple views of an object is presented. In each iteration, the method first estimates a texture map given the current shape estimate. The texture map and its associated residual error image are obtained via maximum a posteriori estimation and reprojection of the multiple views into texture space. Next, the surface shape is adjusted to minimize residual error in texture space. The surface is deformed towards a photometrically-consistent solution via a series of 1D epipolar searches at randomly selected surface points. The texture space formulation has improved computational complexity over standard image-based error approaches, and allows computation of the reprojection error and uncertainty for any point on the surface. Moreover, shape adjustments can be constrained such that the recovered model's silhouette matches those of the input images. Experiments with real world imagery demonstrate the validity of the approach.