Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

Explaining economic growth in developed economies after 1980

We use the Aguion and Howitt (2009) theoretical model of endogenous economic growth to explain the declining economic growth in developed economies in the period 1981-2009. Aguion and Howitt theoretical framework combines Solownian and Schumpeterian elements in a single scenario, so that labor-augmenting technological progress and capital accumulation per efficiency unit of labor are both caused not only by exogenous changes in the investment rate but also by shocks to the degree of efficiency in the Research and Development (R&D) expenditure process. Empirical results revealed that per worker output growth rates and capital stock per efficiency unit of labor growth rates both have a common panel unit root. Since the panel cointegration tests and estimates revealed a statistical significant negative long-run relationship between per worker output growth rate and capital stock per efficiency unit of labor, the interpretation of the econometric results analized from the Aguion and Howitt ́s theoretical perspective is that labor-augmenting technological progress is endogenously falling over time mainly because of an exogenous deterioration of the environment conditions for the transformation of the investment rate and R&D expenditures in technological progress.

Services growth and convergence: Getting India’s states together

India’s success story in services is well documented at the national level, but similar literature does not exist for India’s states. In this paper, we bridge this gap in research by looking at India’s services growth at the sub-national level and in doing so, also challenge existing literature by arguing that this growth has positive implications for income distribution. The first interesting finding is that even as per capita income is not converging across India’s states, per capita services are and we provide evidence for this both in terms of traditional measures of sigma- and beta-convergence and more recent panel unit root tests. Secondly, not only is external demand an important determinant of services value added at the state level, but this demand also emanates from all over the country rather than being concentrated in the neighbouring or richer states. This suggests that the benefits from services growth are being distributed more widely than may be perceived.

Does Final Energy Demand in Portugal Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects

Improved root t method to evaluate consolidation test results - Discussion

Taylor (1948) suggested the method for determination of the settlement, d, corresponding to 90% consolidation utilizing the characteristics of the degree of consolidation, U, versus the square root of the time factor, square root of T, plot. Based on the properties of the slope of U versus square root of T curve, a new method is proposed to determine d corresponding to any U above 70% consolidation for evaluation of the coefficient of consolidation, Cn. The effects of the secondary consolidation on the Cn value at different percentages of consolidation can be studied. Cn, closer to the field values, can be determined in less time as compared to Taylor's method. At any U in between 75 and 95% consolidation, Cn(U) due to the new method lies in between Taylor's Cn and Casagrande's Cn.

Clinical factors associated with a Candida albicans Germ Tube Antibody positive test in Intensive Care Unit patients

Background: Poor outcomes of invasive candidiasis (IC) are associated with the difficulty in establishing the microbiological diagnosis at an early stage. New scores and laboratory tests have been developed in order to make an early therapeutic intervention in an attempt to reduce the high mortality associated with invasive fungal infections. Candida albicans IFA IgG has been recently commercialized for germ tube antibody detection (CAGTA). This test provides a rapid and simple diagnosis of IC (84.4% sensitivity and 94.7% specificity). The aim of this study is to identify the patients who could be benefited by the use of CAGTA test in critical care setting. Methods: A prospective, cohort, observational multicentre study was carried out in six medical/surgical Intensive care units (ICU) of tertiary-care Spanish hospitals. Candida albicans Germ Tube Antibody test was performed twice a week if predetermined risk factors were present, and serologically demonstrated candidiasis was considered if the testing serum dilution was >= 1: 160 in at least one sample and no other microbiological evidence of invasive candidiasis was found. Results: Fifty-three critically ill non-neutropenic patients (37.7% post surgery) were included. Twenty-two patients (41.5%) had CAGTA-positive results, none of them with positive blood culture for Candida. Neither corrected colonization index nor antifungal treatment had influence on CAGTA results. This finding could corroborate that the CAGTA may be an important biomarker to distinguish between colonization and infection in these patients. The presence of acute renal failure at the beginning of the study was more frequent in CAGTA-negative patients. Previous surgery was statistically more frequent in CAGTA-positive patients. Conclusions: This study identified previous surgery as the principal clinical factor associated with CAGTA-positive results and emphasises the utility of this promising technique, which was not influenced by high Candida colonization or antifungal treatment. Our results suggest that detection of CAGTA may be important for the diagnosis of invasive candidiasis in surgical patients admitted in ICU.

Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

Apical negative pressure irrigation versus conventional irrigation plus triantibiotic intracanal dressing on root canal disinfection in dog teeth

Objective. The aim of this study was to compare in vivo the efficacy of 2 root canal disinfection techniques (apical negative pressure irrigation versus apical positive pressure irrigation plus triantibiotic intracanal dressing) in immature dog teeth with apical periodontitis. Study design. Two groups of root canals with pulp necrosis and apical periodontitis were evaluated according to the disinfection technique: group 1: apical negative pressure irrigation (EndoVac system); and group 2: apical positive pressure irrigation (conventional irrigation) plus triantibiotic intracanal dressing. The first sample (S1) was collected after lesions were radiographically visible, and the second sample (S2) was collected after apical negative pressure irrigation (group 1) or conventional irrigation/triantibiotic dressing (group 2). All samples were seeded in a culture medium for anaerobic bacteria. Colony-forming unit counts were analyzed statistically by the Mann-Whitney test (alpha = .05). Results. Microorganisms were present in 100% of canals of both groups in S1. In S2, microorganisms were absent in 88.6% of group 1`s canals and 78.28% of group 2`s canals. There was no significant difference between the groups in either S1 (P = .0963) or S2 (P = .0566). There was significant (P < .05) bacterial reduction from S1 to S2 in both groups. Conclusion. In immature teeth with apical periodontitis, use of the EndoVac system can be considered to be a promising disinfection protocol, because it provided similar bacterial reduction to that of apical positive pressure irrigation (conventional irrigation) plus intracanal dressing with the triantibiotic paste, and the use of intracanal antibiotics might not be necessary. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2010;109:e42-e46)

Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots when Residuals Contain Serial Correlations under HEGY Test Framework

This paper introduces a corrected test statistic for testing seasonal unit roots when residuals contain serial correlations, based on the HEGY test proposed by Hylleberg,Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). The serial correlations in the residuals of test regressionare accommodated by making corrections to the commonly used HEGY t statistics. Theasymptotic distributions of the corrected t statistics are free from nuisance parameters.The size and power properties of the corrected statistics for quarterly and montly data are investigated. Based on our simulations, the corrected statistics for monthly data havemore power compared with the commonly used HEGY test statistics, but they also have size distortions when there are strong negative seasonal correlations in the residuals.

Evaluation of the radiopacity of calcium hydroxide- and glass-ionomer-based root canal sealers

Aim To evaluate the radiopacity of calcium hydroxide-based root canal sealers (Acroseal, Sealapex and Sealer 26), a glass-ionomer-based sealer (Activ GP Sealer) and a zinc oxide and eugenol-based sealer (Intrafill).Methodology Five disc-shaped specimens (10 x 1 mm) were fabricated from each material, according to the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 6876/2001 standard. After setting of the materials, radiographs were taken using occlusal films and a graduated aluminum step-wedge varying from 2 to 16 mm in thickness. The dental X-ray unit (GE1000) was set at 50 Kvp, 10 mA, 18 pulses s(-1) and distance of 33.5 cm. The radiographs were digitized and the radiopacity compared with that of the aluminum step-wedge, using WIXWIN-2000 software (Gendex). Data (mm Al) were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey test.Results Intrafill was the most radiopaque material (7.67 mm Al) followed by Sealer 26 (6.33 mm Al), Sealapex (6.05 mm Al) and Acroseal (4.03 mm Al). Activ GP was the least radiopaque material (1.95 mm Al, P < 0.05).Conclusions The sealers evaluated in this study had different radiopacities. However, except for the glass-ionomer-based sealer, all materials had radiopacity values above the minimum recommended by the ISO standard.

Genotoxicity and mutagenicity of water contaminated with tannery effluents, as evaluated by the micronucleus test and comet assay using the fish Oreochromis niloticus and chromosome aberrations in onion root-tips

Cytotoxicity of metals is important because some metals are potential mutagens able to induce tumors in humans and experimental animals. Chromium can damage DNA in several ways, including DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) which generate chromosomal aberrations, micronucleus formation, sister chromatid exchange, formation of DNA adducts and alterations in DNA replication and transcription. In our study, water samples from three sites in the Córrego dos Bagres stream in the Franca municipality of the Brazilian state of São Paulo were subjected to the comet assay and micronucleus test using erythrocytes from the fish Oreochromis niloticus. Nuclear abnormalities of the erythrocytes included blebbed, notched and lobed nuclei, probably due to genotoxic chromium compounds. The greatest comet assay damage occurred with water from a chromium-containing tannery effluent discharge site, supporting the hypothesis that chromium residues can be genotoxic. The mutagenicity of the water samples was assessed using the onion root-tip cell assay, the most frequent chromosomal abnormalities observed being: c-metaphases, stick chromosome, chromosome breaks and losses, bridged anaphases, multipolar anaphases, and micronucleated and binucleated cells. Onion root-tip cell mutagenicity was highest for water samples containing the highest levels of chromium.

Radiopacity evaluation of root canal sealers containing calcium hydroxide and MTA

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the radiopacity of root canal sealers containing calcium hydroxide and MTA (Acroseal, Sealer 26, Sealapex, Endo CPM Sealer, Epiphany and Intrafill). Five disc-shaped specimens (10 x 1 mm) were fabricated from each material, according to the ISO 6876/2001 standard. After setting of the materials, radiographs were taken using occlusal film and a graduated aluminum stepwedge varying from 2 to 16 mm in thickness. The dental X-ray unit (GE1000) was set at 50 kVp, 10 mA, 18 pulses/s and distance of 33.5 cm. The radiographs were digitized and the radiopacity compared to that of the aluminum stepwedge using VIXWIN-2000 software (Gendex). The data (mmAl) were analyzed statistically by ANOVA and Tukey's test at the 5% significance level. Epiphany and Intrafill presented the highest radiopacity values (8.3 mmAl and 7.5 mmAl respectively, p < 0.05) followed by Sealer 26 (6.3 mmAl), Sealapex (6.1 mmAl) and Endo CPM Sealer (6 mmAl). Acroseal was the least radiopaque material (4 mmAl, p < 0.05). In conclusion, the calcium hydroxide- and MTA-containing root canal sealers had different radiopacities. However, all materials presented radiopacity values above the minimum recommended by the ISO standard. © 2009 Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Odontológica.

Clinical Comparison of the Effectiveness of Single-file Reciprocating Systems and Rotary Systems for Removal of Endotoxins and Cultivable Bacteria from Primarily Infected Root Canals

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Endodontic retreatment: clinical comparison of reciprocating systems versus rotary system in disinfecting root canals

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)