Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms.

BACKGROUND: The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. METHODS: To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption.

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

Low estimates of dietary acid load are positively associated with bone ultrasound in women older than 75 years of age with a lifetime fracture

Dietary acid load from Western diets may be a risk factor for osteoporosis. It can be estimated by net endogenous acid production (NEAP). No data currently exists for NEAP estimates and bone indices in the very elderly (i.e. > or = 75 y). The aim of this study was to determine the association between NEAP estimates by using the potential renal acid load (PRAL) equation and quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS) measurements at the heel [broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA)] in Caucasian women. We assessed NEAP and QUS in 401 very elderly Swiss ambulatory women. We evaluated dietary intake and NEAP estimates with a validated FFQ. QUS was measured using Achilles (Lunar). We identified 2 subgroups: 256 women (80.6 y +/- 3; BUA, 96.8 dB/MHz) with a fracture history and the remaining 145 (79.9 y SD 2.9; BUA, 101.7 dB/MHz) without. Women who reported having suffered a fracture had lower BUA (P < 0.001) than nonfractured women but did not differ in nutrient intakes and NEAP. Lower NEAP (P = 0.023) and higher potassium intake (P = 0.033) were correlated with higher BUA, which remained significant even after adjustment for age, BMI, and osteoporosis treatment. BUA was positively correlated with calcium (P = 0.016) and BMI (P < 0.001). Women who reported no fractures had no significant correlations between nutrient intake, NEAP, and BUA. Low nutritional acid load was correlated with higher BUA in very elderly women with a fracture history. Although relatively weak compared with age and BMI, this association was significant and may be an important additional risk factor that might be particularly relevant in frail patients with an already high fracture risk.

Velocity estimates for signal propagation leading to systemic jasmonic acid accumulation in wounded Arabidopsis.

The wound response prohormone jasmonic acid (JA) accumulates rapidly in tissues both proximal and distal to injury sites in plants. Using quantitative liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry after flash freezing of tissues, we found that JA accumulated within 30 s of injury in wounded Arabidopsis leaves (p = 3.5 e(-7)). JA augmentation distal to wounds was strongest in unwounded leaves with direct vascular connections to wounded leaves wherein JA levels increased significantly within 120 s of wounding (p = 0.00027). This gave conservative and statistically robust temporal boundaries for the average velocity of the long distance signal leading to distal JA accumulation in unwounded leaves of 3.4-4.5 cm min(-1). Like JA, transcripts of the JA synthesis gene LIPOXYGENASE2 (LOX2) and the jasmonate response gene JAZ10.3 also accumulated to higher levels in directly interconnected leaves than in indirectly connected leaves. JA accumulation in a lox2-1 mutant plant was initiated rapidly after wounding then slowed progressively compared with the wild type (WT). Despite this, JAZ10.3 expression in the two genotypes was similar. Free cyclopentenone jasmonate levels were similar in both resting WT and lox2-1. In contrast, bound cyclopentenone jasmonates (arabidopsides) were far lower in lox2-1 than in the WT. The major roles of LOX2 are to generate arabidopsides and the large levels of JA that accumulate proximal to the wound. LOX2 is not essential for some of the most rapid events elicited by wounding.

Variable Kernel estimates: On the impossibility of tuning the parameters

For the standard kernel density estimate, it is known that one can tune the bandwidth such that the expected L1 error is within a constant factor of the optimal L1 error (obtained when one is allowed to choose the bandwidth with knowledge of the density). In this paper, we pose the same problem for variable bandwidth kernel estimates where the bandwidths are allowed to depend upon the location. We show in particular that for positive kernels on the real line, for any data-based bandwidth, there exists a densityfor which the ratio of expected L1 error over optimal L1 error tends to infinity. Thus, the problem of tuning the variable bandwidth in an optimal manner is ``too hard''. Moreover, from the class of counterexamples exhibited in the paper, it appears thatplacing conditions on the densities (monotonicity, convexity, smoothness) does not help.

Nutritional ecology of blowflies (Diptera, Calliphoridae): estimates of critical larval weight for pupation on two different

Under natural environmental conditions, blowflies utilize discrete and ephemeral feeding resources such as decaying carcasses. Competition for food on such feeding substrates is usually very severe, and only the individuals that are capable of attaining the critical larval weight for pupation will be able to survive. This critical weight is hitherto unknown for several blowfly species; therefore, the current work is aimed at obtaining such a critical value for four blowfly species of the genera Chrysomya and Lucilia, deploying two types of feeding substrate, namely, artificial diet and macerated bovine meat. On the whole, the critical weights ranged from 30 to 35 mg. The lowest larval weight which permitted pupation was 30.0 mg for Chrysomya megacephala reared on macerated bovine meat. This species was also the best adapted to pupation at low larval weights in relation to the maximum larval weight for males. Regarding the pupation of females, the best-adapted individual was a C. albiceps specimen exhibiting a critical weight that was equal to 39.20 % of the maximum value obtained. Concerning all the species and diet types, the female individuals exhibited the lowest critical weights that produced viable pupae, probably representing an evolutionary strategy that favoured the survival of females, responsible for the egg formation, contributing to the establishment of future generations. Regarding the loss (in percentage) of adult biomass in relation to the third instar larvae, the females of C. megacephala lost less weight than males in both feeding substrates. On the other hand, such a loss of weight occurred in males of C. albiceps and L. cuprina.

Estimates of patient costs related with population morbidity: Can indirect costs affect the results?

A number of health economics works require patient cost estimates as a basic information input.However the accuracy of cost estimates remains in general unspecified. We propose to investigate howthe allocation of indirect costs or overheads can affect the estimation of patient costs in order to allow forimprovements in the analysis of patient costs estimates. Instead of focusing on the costing method, thispaper proposes to highlight changes in variance explained observed when a methodology is chosen. Wecompare three overhead allocation methods for a specific Spanish population adjusted using the ClinicalRisk Groups (CRG), and we obtain different series of full-cost group estimates. As a result, there aresignificant gains in the proportion of the variance explained, depending upon the methodology used.Furthermore, we find that the global amount of variation explained by risk adjustment models dependsmainly on direct costs and is independent of the level of aggregation used in the classification system.

Spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll distributions and geostrophic estimates on the Peru shelf at 9°S

Estudio del perfil de la plataforma del Peru a los 9°S. Datos colectados mediante Batfish en zig zag

Inequalities for a new data-based method for selecting nonparametric density estimates

We continue the development of a method for the selection of a bandwidth or a number of design parameters in density estimation. We provideexplicit non-asymptotic density-free inequalities that relate the $L_1$ error of the selected estimate with that of the best possible estimate,and study in particular the connection between the richness of the classof density estimates and the performance bound. For example, our methodallows one to pick the bandwidth and kernel order in the kernel estimatesimultaneously and still assure that for {\it all densities}, the $L_1$error of the corresponding kernel estimate is not larger than aboutthree times the error of the estimate with the optimal smoothing factor and kernel plus a constant times $\sqrt{\log n/n}$, where $n$ is the sample size, and the constant only depends on the complexity of the family of kernels used in the estimate. Further applications include multivariate kernel estimates, transformed kernel estimates, and variablekernel estimates.

Iowa County Precipitation Estimates, 2008

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau.

County Precipitation Estimates, January 2008

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau.

Iowa County Precipitation Estimates, Departure from Normal 2008

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau.

Iowa County Precipitation Estimates, Departure from Normal 2008

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau.

Iowa Preliminary County Precipitation Estimates, July 2009

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau.

Iowa Preliminary County Precipitation Estimates, July 2009

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau.