925 resultados para Threat scenarios


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New plate-tectonic reconstructions of the Gondwana margin suggest that the location of Gondwana-derived terranes should not only be guided by the models, but should also consider the possible detrital input from some Asian blocks (Hunia), supposed to have been located along the Cambrian Gondwana margin, and accreted in the Silurian to the North-Chinese block. Consequently, the Gondwana margin has to be subdivided into a more western domain, where the future Avalonian blocks will be separated from Gondwana by the opening Rheic Ocean, whereas in its eastern continuation, hosting the future basement areas of Central Europe, different periods of crustal extension should be distinguished. Instead of applying a rather cylindrical model, it is supposed that crustal extension follows a much more complex pattern, where local back-arcs or intra-continental rifts are involved. Guided by the age data of magmatic rocks and the pattern of subsidence curves, the following extensional events can be distinguished: During the early to middle Cambrian, a back-arc setting guided the evolution at the Gondwana margin. Contemporaneous intra-continental rift basins developed at other places related to a general post-PanAfrican extensional phase affecting Africa Upper Cambrian formation of oceanic crust is manifested in the Chamrousse area, and may have lateral cryptic relics preserved in other places. This is regarded as the oceanisation of some marginal basins in a context of back-arc rifting. These basins were closed in a mid-Ordovician tectonic phase, related to the subduction of buoyant material (mid-ocean ridge?) Since the Early Ordovician, a new phase of extension is observed, accompanied by a large-scale volcanic activity, erosion of the rift shoulders generated detritus (Armorican Quartzite) and the rift basins collected detrital zircons from a wide hinterland. This phase heralded the opening of Palaeotethys, but it failed due to the Silurian collision (Eo-Variscan phase) of an intra-oceanic arc with the Gondwana margin. During this time period, at the eastern wing of the Gondwana margin begins the drift of the future Hunia microcontinents, through the opening of an eastern prolongation of the already existing Rheic Ocean. The passive margin of the remaining Gondwana was composed of the Galatian superterranes, constituents of the future Variscan basement areas. Remaining under the influence of crustal extension, they will start their drift to Laurussia since the earliest Devonian during the opening of the Palaeotethys Ocean. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Hazards due to active smoking are known for a long time. On the other hand, the importance of the harmful effects of passive smoking are less recognized, having been shown initially mainly in the pediatric population. However, the importance of significant increased risks on various respiratory pathologies of the adult are well known today, in a Swiss society where the number of active smokers remains high, leading to a high prevalence of passive smoking exposure On the basis of recent publications and updates of various organizations, we propose a review of the history, noxious mechanisms and effects on various respiratory pathologies of the exposure to passive smoke in adults.

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The draft of the new law on the confidentiality of personal data severely curtails medical and epidemiological research. This might be detrimental and dangerous to public health. The project therefore has to be amended.

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The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR), with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

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We report an experiment where participants observed an attack on their virtual body as experienced in an immersive virtual reality (IVR) system. Participants sat by a table with their right hand resting upon it. In IVR, they saw a virtual table that was registered with the real one, and they had a virtual body that substituted their real body seen from a first person perspective. The virtual right hand was collocated with their real right hand. Event-related brain potentials were recorded in two conditions, one where the participant"s virtual hand was attacked with a knife and a control condition where the knife only struck the virtual table. Significantly greater P450 potentials were obtained in the attack condition confirming our expectations that participants had a strong illusion of the virtual hand being their own, which was also strongly supported by questionnaire responses. Higher levels of subjective virtual hand ownership correlated with larger P450 amplitudes. Mu-rhythm event-related desynchronization in the motor cortex and readiness potential (C3C4) negativity were clearly observed when the virtual hand was threatened as would be expected, if the real hand was threatened and the participant tried to avoid harm. Our results support the idea that event-related potentials may provide a promising non-subjective measure of virtual embodiment. They also support previous experiments on pain observation and are placed into context of similar experiments and studies of body perception and body ownership within cognitive neuroscience.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate a generalized response function to the atmospheric CO2 concentration [f(CO2)] by the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in rice. Experimental data on RUE at different CO2 concentrations were collected from rice trials performed in several locations around the world. RUE data were then normalized, so that all RUE at current CO2 concentration were equal to 1. The response function was obtained by fitting normalized RUE versus CO2 concentration to a Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) function, and by using Marquardt's method to estimate the model coefficients. Goodness of fit was measured by the standard deviation of the estimated coefficients, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The f(CO2) describes a nonlinear sigmoidal response of RUE in rice, in function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, which has an ecophysiological background, and, therefore, renders a robust function that can be easily coupled to rice simulation models, besides covering the range of CO2 emissions for the next generation of climate scenarios for the 21st century.

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Much research studies how individuals cope with disease threat by blaming out-groups and protecting the in-group. The model of collective symbolic coping (CSC) describes four stages by which representations of a threatening event are elaborated in the mass media: awareness, divergence, convergence, and normalization. We used the CSC model to predict when symbolic in-group protection (othering) would occur in the case of the avian influenza (AI) outbreak. Two studies documented CSC stages and showed that othering occurred during the divergence stage, characterized by an uncertain symbolic environment. Study 1 analysed media coverage of AI over time, documenting CSC stages of awareness and divergence. In Study 2, a two-wave repeated cross-sectional survey was conducted just after the divergence stage and a year later. Othering was measured by the number of foreign countries erroneously ticked by participants as having human victims. Individual differences in germ aversion and social dominance orientation interacted to predict othering during the divergence stage but not a year later. Implications for research on CSC and symbolic in-group protection strategies resulting from disease threat are discussed.

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The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

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Focus of this thesisis made on development of electricity sector of Russian North-West. The objective was to determine the most likely scenarios for development of the most critical (western) part of Interregional Power System of North-West, from where the most part of Russian electricity exports to the countries of European Union take place. For this purpose all the involved sides were analyzed: generation, transmission system and electricity consumption in different regions of Russian North-West. The analysis was performed through investigation of existing generation andtransmission capacities and plans for their development to be performed by the generation and transmission companies operating in the region. Principles of Russian electricity sector restructuring and electricity market design are also discussed as well as factors that may influence on future electricity price in the region.

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BACKGROUND: The risks of a public exposure to a sudden decompression, until now, have been related to civil aviation and, at a lesser extent, to diving activities. However, engineers are currently planning the use of low pressure environments for underground transportation. This method has been proposed for the future Swissmetro, a high-speed underground train designed for inter-urban linking in Switzerland. HYPOTHESIS: The use of a low pressure environment in an underground public transportation system must be considered carefully regarding the decompression risks. Indeed, due to the enclosed environment, both decompression kinetics and safety measures may differ from aviation decompression cases. METHOD: A theoretical study of decompression risks has been conducted at an early stage of the Swissmetro project. A three-compartment theoretical model, based on the physics of fluids, has been implemented with flow processing software (Ithink 5.0). Simulations have been conducted in order to analyze "decompression scenarios" for a wide range of parameters, relevant in the context of the Swissmetro main study. RESULTS: Simulation results cover a wide range from slow to explosive decompression, depending on the simulation parameters. Not surprisingly, the leaking orifice area has a tremendous impact on barotraumatic effects, while the tunnel pressure may significantly affect both hypoxic and barotraumatic effects. Calculations have also shown that reducing the free space around the vehicle may mitigate significantly an accidental decompression. CONCLUSION: Numeric simulations are relevant to assess decompression risks in the future Swissmetro system. The decompression model has proven to be useful in assisting both design choices and safety management.

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Euroopan unionissa päätettiin jo yli vuosikymmen sitten, että rautatieliiketoiminta vapautetaan kilpailulle. Iso-Britanniasta olimäärä tulla esimerkkivaltio tämän prosessin käyttöönotossa. Pääideana oli säännöstelyn keventäminen, jolloin omistuspohja toimialalla laajenee ja rautateiden infrastruktuuri sekä toiminta parantuvat. Infrastruktuuri on määrä olla yhden organisaation hallinnassa ja raiteiden käyttöoikeus on kaikilla lupaehdot täyttävillä operaattoreilla, jotka kilpailevat keskenään matkustajista ja tavararahdeista. Kuitenkin Yhdysvalloissa ja eräissä Latinalaisen Amerikan maissa kilpailu on vapautettu siten, että rautatieyritys omistaa raideinfrastruktuurin, junat, tavarankuljetus- sekä matkustajavaunut. Iso-Britannian yksityistämistä pidettiin aluksi isonaepäonnistumisena: nopealla aikataululla sovellettiin jäykkiä transaktioperusteisia ulkoistamisstrategioita infrastruktuurin kunnossapitoon, jotka lopulta johtivat junien jatkuviin myöhästymisiin ja muutamaan tuhoisaan onnettomuuteen. Liiketoiminnallisessa mielessäkään ei oikein onnistuttu: infrastruktuurista vastaava yritys jouduttiin listaamaan pois Lontoon pörssistä, ja hallituksen oli pakko luoda tukipaketti pahasti velkaantuneen, vain marginaalisien investointien kohteena olleen yrityksen toimintaa varten (vaikka kapasiteettitarvetta oli markkinoilla). Myös rautatieoperaattorit olivat taloudellisessa ahdingossa ja vain määrätietoisten hallituksen laatimien pelastuspakettien avulla ala nousi syvimmästä kriisistään. Tästä huolimatta näiden negatiivisten sivuvaikutusten ohella koko ala pystyi kasvattamaan kysyntää, niin matkustaja- kuin rahtiliikenteenkin osalta. Vähenevän kysynnän trendi, joka alkoi 1970-luvulla, otti käännöksen parempaan. Toinen eurooppalaismaa, jolla on pitkät kokemukset yksityistämisestä, on Ruotsi. Tämä maatapaus on melko konservatiivinen verrattuna tilanteeseen edellisessä; vain rajattu määrä reittejä on avattu kilpailulle ja sopimukset tehdään kerralla pitkäksi aikaa eteenpäin. Ruotsin säännöstelyn purku osoittautui menestykseksi, koska tuottavuus onollut vakaassa kasvussa ja rautateiden markkinaosuus erityisesti matkustajapuolella on noussut merkittävästi, verrattuna muihin kuljetusmuotoihin. Kuitenkin kilpailua on käytännössä vähän tässä maassa ja parempiatuloksia on lupa odottaa, kun vain säännöstelyn purkaminen jatkuu. Viimeinen tutkimuksemme kohteena oleva maa on Yhdysvallat, joka alistutti rautatiet kilpailulle jo 1980-luvun alussa, käyttäen jo edellä mainittua vertikaalista integraatiota; tämä valinta on taas johtanut hyvin erilaisiin tuloksiin. Vaihtoehtoinen rakenteellinen uudistustapa on suosinut rahtivirtoja matkustajiin nähden, ja lopputuloksena tämä tapaus synnytti yrityksiä huolehtimaan toista näistä kahdesta pääasiakasryhmästä. Viimeaikaiset tulokset tästä yksityistämisprosessista ovat olleet hyviä: jäljellejääneiden yritysten voitot ovat kasvaneet, osinkoja ollaan kyetty jakamaan ja osakkeiden arvostus on noussut. Tässä tutkimusraportissa yritämme kolmen maatapauksen kautta esittää, miten yksityistämisprosessi tulee vaikuttamaan Euroopassa, kun kilpailu rautateillä vapautuu. Me käymmeläpi, mikä näistä kolmesta maaesimerkistä on kaikkein todennäköisin jaesitämme ehdotuksia siihen, miten valtiot voisivat välttää ei-haluttuja sivuvaikutuksia. Kolme maaesimerkkiä, ja lopuksi esitetty lyhyt tilastollinen analyysi osoittavat, että rautateillä on tulevaisuuden potentiaalia Euroopassa, ja kilpailun vapauttaminen on avain tämän potentiaalin realisointiin.