Sensitivity of the lane change test as a measure of in-vehicle system demand

The Lane Change Test (LCT) is one of the growing number of methods developed to quantify driving performance degradation brought about by the use of in-vehicle devices. Beyond its validity and reliability, for such a test to be of practical use, it must also be sensitive to the varied demands of individual tasks. The current study evaluated the ability of several recent LCT lateral control and event detection parameters to discriminate between visual-manual and cognitive surrogate In-Vehicle Information System tasks with different levels of demand. Twenty-seven participants (mean age 24.4 years) completed a PC version of the LCT while performing visual search and math problem solving tasks. A number of the lateral control metrics were found to be sensitive to task differences, but the event detection metrics were less able to discriminate between tasks. The mean deviation and lane excursion measures were able to distinguish between the visual and cognitive tasks, but were less sensitive to the different levels of task demand. The other LCT metrics examined were less sensitive to task differences. A major factor influencing the sensitivity of at least some of the LCT metrics could be the type of lane change instructions given to participants. The provision of clear and explicit lane change instructions and further refinement of its metrics will be essential for increasing the utility of the LCT as an evaluation tool.

Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections - Lessons learned

A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

Forecasting negative effects of monotony and sensation seeking on performance during a vigilance task

The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create hypovigilance and impair performance towards critical events. Identifying such impairment in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict it in real-time. This pilot study aims to show that performance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling taking into account sensation seeking levels. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants‟ performance. The framework for prediction developed on this task could be extended to a monotonous driving task. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants‟ lapses in alertness. Driver‟s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to a surrogate measure: the participant‟s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important decline in performance in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

Corneal sensitivity as an ophthalmic marker of diabetic neuropathy

Purpose. The objective of this study was to explore the discriminative capacity of non-contact corneal esthesiometry (NCCE) when compared with the neuropathy disability score (NDS) score—a validated, standard method of diagnosing clinically significant diabetic neuropathy. Methods. Eighty-one participants with type 2 diabetes, no history of ocular disease, trauma, or surgery and no history of systemic disease that may affect the cornea were enrolled. Participants were ineligible if there was history of neuropathy due to non-diabetic cause or current diabetic foot ulcer or infection. Corneal sensitivity threshold was measured on the eye of dominant hand side at a distance of 10 mm from the center of the cornea using a stimulus duration of 0.9 s. The NDS was measured producing a score ranging from 0 to 10. To determine the optimal cutoff point of corneal sensitivity that identified the presence of neuropathy (diagnosed by NDS), the Youden index and “closest-to-(0,1)” criteria were used. Results. The receiver-operator characteristic curve for NCCE for the presence of neuropathy (NDS ≥3) had an area under the curve of 0.73 (p = 0.001) and, for the presence of moderate neuropathy (NDS ≥6), area of 0.71 (p = 0.003). By using the Youden index, for an NDS ≥3, the sensitivity of NCCE was 70% and specificity was 75%, and a corneal sensitivity threshold of 0.66 mbar or higher indicated the presence of neuropathy. When NDS ≥6 (indicating risk of foot ulceration) was applied, the sensitivity was 52% with a specificity of 85%. Conclusions. NCCE is a sensitive test for the diagnosis of minimal and more advanced diabetic neuropathy and may serve as a useful surrogate marker for diabetic and perhaps other neuropathies.

Analysis of build-up of heavy metals and volatile organics on urban roads in Gold Coast, Australia

Urban water quality can be significantly impaired by the build-up of pollutants such as heavy metals and volatile organics on urban road surfaces due to vehicular traffic. Any control strategy for the mitigation of traffic related build-up of heavy metals and volatile organic pollutants should be based on the knowledge of their build-up processes. In the study discussed in this paper, the outcomes of a detailed experiment investigation into build-up processes of heavy metals and volatile organics are presented. It was found that traffic parameters such as average daily traffic, volume over capacity ratio and surface texture depth had similar strong correlations with the build-up of heavy metals and volatile organics. Multicriteria decision analyses revealed that the 1 - 74 um particulate fraction of total suspended solids (TSS) could be regarded as a surrogate indicator for particulate heavy metals in build-up and this same fraction of total organic carbon could be regarded as a surrogate indicator for particulate volatile organics build-up. In terms of pollutants affinity, TSS was found to be the predominant parameter for particulate heavy metals build-up and total dissolved solids was found to be the predominant parameter for he potential dissolved particulate fraction in heavy metals build-up. It was also found that land use did not play a significant role in the build-up of traffic generated heavy metals and volatile organics.

Real-time evaluation of driver’s alertness on highways

Suburbanisation has been internationally a major phenomenon in the last decades. Suburb-to-suburb routes are nowadays the most widespread road journeys; and this resulted in an increment of distances travelled, particularly on faster suburban highways. The design of highways tends to over-simplify the driving task and this can result in decreased alertness. Driving behaviour is consequently impaired and drivers are then more likely to be involved in road crashes. This is particularly dangerous on highways where the speed limit is high. While effective countermeasures to this decrement in alertness do not currently exist, the development of in-vehicle sensors opens avenues for monitoring driving behaviour in real-time. The aim of this study is to evaluate in real-time the level of alertness of the driver through surrogate measures that can be collected from in-vehicle sensors. Slow EEG activity is used as a reference to evaluate driver's alertness. Data are collected in a driving simulator instrumented with an eye tracking system, a heart rate monitor and an electrodermal activity device (N=25 participants). Four different types of highways (driving scenario of 40 minutes each) are implemented through the variation of the road design (amount of curves and hills) and the roadside environment (amount of buildings and traffic). We show with Neural Networks that reduced alertness can be detected in real-time with an accuracy of 92% using lane positioning, steering wheel movement, head rotation, blink frequency, heart rate variability and skin conductance level. Such results show that it is possible to assess driver's alertness with surrogate measures. Such methodology could be used to warn drivers of their alertness level through the development of an in-vehicle device monitoring in real-time drivers' behaviour on highways, and therefore it could result in improved road safety.

The three little pigs and the art of playfulness

A number of pictorial based texts for children use animals as models for displaying or approaching aspects of childhood. Although authors and illustrators utilise various tactics for including anthropomorphic animals in their books, those that are used as 'surrogate' children can be seen to focus in the main on issues of behaviour, socialisation and maturity - issues that reflect the everyday life of the growing child. This paper aims to explore three pictorial texts that specifically utilise the pig character as a child model, to facilitate for authors/illustrators the opportunity to deal with examples of childhood experience. The paper also tentatively examines how such roles might encourage a reassessment of other more stereotypical associations some audiences have historically/culturally formed about the pig.

Convexity, Classification, and Risk Bounds

Many of the classification algorithms developed in the machine learning literature, including the support vector machine and boosting, can be viewed as minimum contrast methods that minimize a convex surrogate of the 0–1 loss function. The convexity makes these algorithms computationally efficient. The use of a surrogate, however, has statistical consequences that must be balanced against the computational virtues of convexity. To study these issues, we provide a general quantitative relationship between the risk as assessed using the 0–1 loss and the risk as assessed using any nonnegative surrogate loss function. We show that this relationship gives nontrivial upper bounds on excess risk under the weakest possible condition on the loss function—that it satisfies a pointwise form of Fisher consistency for classification. The relationship is based on a simple variational transformation of the loss function that is easy to compute in many applications. We also present a refined version of this result in the case of low noise, and show that in this case, strictly convex loss functions lead to faster rates of convergence of the risk than would be implied by standard uniform convergence arguments. Finally, we present applications of our results to the estimation of convergence rates in function classes that are scaled convex hulls of a finite-dimensional base class, with a variety of commonly used loss functions.

Classification with a reject option using a hinge loss

We consider the problem of binary classification where the classifier can, for a particular cost, choose not to classify an observation. Just as in the conventional classification problem, minimization of the sample average of the cost is a difficult optimization problem. As an alternative, we propose the optimization of a certain convex loss function φ, analogous to the hinge loss used in support vector machines (SVMs). Its convexity ensures that the sample average of this surrogate loss can be efficiently minimized. We study its statistical properties. We show that minimizing the expected surrogate loss—the φ-risk—also minimizes the risk. We also study the rate at which the φ-risk approaches its minimum value. We show that fast rates are possible when the conditional probability P(Y=1|X) is unlikely to be close to certain critical values.

A note on trader Sharpe Ratios

Traders in the financial world are assessed by the amount of money they make and, increasingly, by the amount of money they make per unit of risk taken, a measure known as the Sharpe Ratio. Little is known about the average Sharpe Ratio among traders, but the Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that traders, like asset managers, should not outperform the broad market. Here we report the findings of a study conducted in the City of London which shows that a population of experienced traders attain Sharpe Ratios significantly higher than the broad market. To explain this anomaly we examine a surrogate marker of prenatal androgen exposure, the second-to-fourth finger length ratio (2D:4D), which has previously been identified as predicting a trader's long term profitability. We find that it predicts the amount of risk taken by traders but not their Sharpe Ratios. We do, however, find that the traders' Sharpe Ratios increase markedly with the number of years they have traded, a result suggesting that learning plays a role in increasing the returns of traders. Our findings present anomalous data for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

Surrogacy : is it harder to relinquish genes?

Surrogacy has produced some positive outcomes creating an opportunity for otherwise childless couples to live their dream of parenthood. However it has also been problematic, particularly where the surrogate mother fails to relinquish a child born as a result of the surrogacy arrangement. This article examines whether a surrogate mother, who is genetically related to the child she delivers, is less likely to relinquish the child than one who has no genetic ties. An examination of empirical evidence provides support for this argument. Legislation and case law in three jurisdictions, Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, is examined to determine which, if any, of these jurisdictions take into account the existence, or otherwise, of a genetic link between the surrogate mother and the child she bears. The article concludes that surrogacy legislation should, subject to exceptional circumstances, encourage surrogacy arrangements where the child and the surrogate are not genetically related.

Surrogacy and IVF

While in the past surrogacy was illegal in Queensland, since June 2010 the Surrogacy Act 2010 (Qld) (“the Act”) has made altruistic surrogacy arrangements lawful in Queensland. In addition, it provides a mechanism for transfer of legal parentage from the surrogate to the person(s) wishing to have a child (the intended parent(s)). Commercial surrogacy – where a payment, reward or other material benefit of advantage (other than the reimbursement of the “birth mother’s surrogacy costs” (s11 of the Act) is made for entering into a surrogacy arrangement – remains unlawful. The paramount guiding principle underpinning the Act is that of the wellbeing and best interests of a child born as a result of surrogacy. The Surrogacy Act 2010 (Qld) allows a single person or a couple (heterosexual or same sex couples) to enter into an agreement with a woman, and her partner (if she has one), to become pregnant with the intention that the child will be relinquished to the intended parent(s). The Act also provides a mechanism for the intended parent(s) to be legally recognised as the parent(s) of the child. In order for the intended parent(s) to be legally recognised (via a parentage order, discussed below) it must be shown that the surrogacy arrangement was entered into when all the parties were over 25 years of age and the intended parent(s) are male or, in a heterosexual or lesbian couple the female(s) are not likely to conceive or give birth to a healthy child due to medical reasons. The arrangement must be entered into before the surrogate becomes pregnant and all parties must have obtained independent legal advice and counselling about the proposed arrangement, and evidence of this is required at the time a parentage order is applied for. For the purposes of the Act it does not matter how the surrogate conceives the child or if the child is genetically related to the parties. During the period of the pregnancy, the surrogate has the right to manage her pregnancy in the way she wishes. Although she cannot profit from acting as a surrogate, section 11 states that she is entitled to surrogacy costs. These include, for example, reasonable medical costs related to pregnancy and the birth of the child; counselling and legal costs associated with the surrogacy arrangement; actual lost earnings because of leave taken during pregnancy or following birth and any reasonable travel expenses incurred. The surrogacy arrangement itself is not legally enforceable; however, obligations to pay a surrogate’s surrogacy costs are enforceable unless she chooses not to relinquish the child to the intending parents. While the Act does not specifically deal with the situation where the surrogate decides she is unprepared to relinquish the child to the intended parents, there have been examples where parties have entered into these kinds of arrangements, and the arrangements have become difficult. For example, the Family Court case of Re Evelyn (1998) FLC 92–807 involved a child born to a surrogate mother who decided not to surrender her. The child was the genetic child of the surrogate mother and the husband of the couple who had contracted with the surrogate mother. Both sets of parents brought proceedings in the court, seeking that the child live with them. In hearing the application, the court applied the paramount principle of the ‘best interests of the child’. The court made clear that there is no presumption in favour of the birth mother, although in this case the court found that the child may be better placed with the surrogate mother’s family.

The Commercial Surrogacy Dilemma

In November 2009 the England and Wales High Court (Family Division) granted a parental order pursuant to s30 Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act 1990 in respect of twins who came to be in the custody and control of the applicants (Mr and Mrs A) through a surrogacy arrangement. The particularly unusual and interesting aspect of this case is that, on the evidence, Mr and Mrs A had paid expenses to the surrogate above and beyond those allowed by the legislation, thus creating a commercial surrogacy arrangement. Commercial surrogacy arrangements involve the payment of money to the surrogate mother in excess of those expenses which have been reasonably incurred pursuant to the surrogacy arrangement. This case is relevant to Queensland law because commercial surrogacy arrangements are also prohibited in Queensland and, as in the United Kingdom, the court cannot make a parentage order unless it is satisfied the surrogacy arrangement is not a commercial surrogacy arrangement.

me as al, you as bobby, me as bobby, you as al

In ‘me as al, you as bobby, me as bobby, you as al’, appropriated footage is looped and supplemented with superimposed text, creating a scenario where Robert De Niro and Al Pacino endlessly stalk each other, with their readied-guns chased by hovering words. These titans of Hollywood screen acting represent opposing approaches to the construction of filmic identity, and as the text labels loosely adhere to one weapon and the next, the action on screen becomes an investigation of the subjective and objective potential within screen surrogate constructions of personalized identity. The work was included in the group show 'Vernacular Terrain' (curated by Lubi Thomas and Steven Danzig) for the Songzhuang Art Museum, Beijing.

The role of insulin in advanced prostate cancer

Advanced prostate cancer is a common and generally incurable disease. Androgen deprivation therapy is used to treat advanced prostate cancer with good benefits to quality of life and regression of disease. Prostate cancer invariably progresses however despite ongoing treatment, to a castrate resistant state. Androgen deprivation is associated with a form of metabolic syndrome, which includes insulin resistance and hyperinsulinaemia. The mitogenic and anti-apoptotic properties of insulin acting through the insulin and hybrid insulin/IGF-1 receptors seem to have positive effects on prostate tumour growth. This pilot study was designed to assess any correlation between elevated insulin levels and progression to castrate resistant prostate cancer. Methods: 36 men receiving ADT for advanced prostate cancer were recruited, at various stages of their treatment, along with 47 controls, men with localised prostate cancer pre-treatment. Serum measurements of C-peptide (used as a surrogate marker for insulin production) were performed and compared between groups. Correlation between serum C-peptide level and time to progression to castrate resistant disease was assessed. Results: There was a significant elevation of C-peptide levels in the ADT group (mean = 1639pmol/L)) compared to the control group (mean = 1169pmol/L), with a p-value of 0.025. In 17 men with good initial response to androgen deprivation, a small negative trend towards earlier progression to castrate resistance with increasing C-peptide level was seen in the ADT group (r = -0.050), however this did not reach statistical significance (p>0.1). Conclusions: This pilot study confirms an increase in serum C-peptide levels in men receiving ADT for advance prostate cancer. A non-significant, but negative trend towards earlier progression to castrate resistance with increasing C-peptide suggests the need for a formal prospective study assessing this hypothesis.