Framing the Game: Objections to Bapat’s Game-Theoretic Modeling of the Afghan Surge

In a recently published article in the prestigious journal Foreign Policy Analysis, Navin A. Bapat uses a rationalist approach to explain key bargaining processes related to the Afghanistan conflict, concluding that “the Afghan mission may continue for political reasons until it is impossible to sustain militarily.” The article captures the essence of the strategic situation in Afghanistan: the losing dynamic involved. This brief commentary in response is an attempt to shed light on where the tenets of Bapat’s game-theoretic model may be erroneous, even while the model does produce conclusions that appear valid overall.

Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

Surface wave and storm surge prediction during Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.

Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland.

Identifying 20th-century periodic coastal surge variation is strategic for the 21st-century coastal surge estimates, as surge periodicities may amplify/reduce future MSL enhanced surge forecasts. Extreme coastal surge data from Belfast Harbour (UK) tide gauges are available for 1901–2010 and provide the potential for decadal-plus periodic coastal surge analysis. Annual extreme surge-elevation distributions (sampled every 10-min) are analysed using PCA and cluster analysis to decompose variation within- and between-years to assess similarity of years in terms of Surge Climate Types, and to establish significance of any transitions in Type occurrence over time using non-parametric Markov analysis. Annual extreme surge variation is shown to be periodically organised across the 20th century. Extreme surge magnitude and distribution show a number of significant cyclonic induced multi-annual (2, 3, 5 & 6 years) cycles, as well as dominant multi-decadal (15–25 years) cycles of variation superimposed on an 80 year fluctuation in atmospheric–oceanic variation across the North Atlantic (relative to NAO/AMO interaction). The top 30 extreme surge events show some relationship with NAO per se, given that 80% are associated with westerly dominant atmospheric flows (+ NAO), but there are 20% of the events associated with blocking air massess (− NAO). Although 20% of the top 30 ranked positive surges occurred within the last twenty years, there is no unequivocal evidence of recent acceleration in extreme surge magnitude related to other than the scale of natural periodic variation.

Optimising power take-off of an oscillating wave surge converter using high fidelity numerical simulations

Oscillating wave surge converters are a promising technology to harvest ocean wave energy in the near shore region. Although research has been going on for many years, the characteristics of the wave action on the structure and especially the phase relation between the driving force and wave quantities like velocity or surface elevation have not been investigated in detail. The main reason for this is the lack of suitable methods. Experimental investigations using tank tests do not give direct access to overall hydrodynamic loads, only damping torque of a power take off system can be measured directly. Non-linear computational fluid dynamics methods have only recently been applied in the research of this type of devices. This paper presents a new metric named wave torque, which is the total hydrodynamic torque minus the still water pitch stiffness at any given angle of rotation. Changes in characteristics of that metric over a wave cycle and for different power take off settings are investigated using computational fluid dynamics methods. Firstly, it is shown that linearised methods cannot predict optimum damping in typical operating states of OWSCs. We then present phase relationships between main kinetic parameters for different damping levels. Although the flap seems to operate close to resonance, as predicted by linear theory, no obvious condition defining optimum damping is found.

A qualitative study of the experience of oral cancer among Taiwanese men

The incidence and mortality of oral cancer in Taiwanese men have increased over the past decade, primarily associated with a surge in the popularity of betel quid chewing. The aim of this study was to examine the experience of six Taiwanese men with oral cancer, who were aged between 40 and 60 years, using a qualitative approach. The three major themes emerging from the data include: (i) understanding the cancer diagnosis; (ii) the challenges of cancer treatment; and (iii) adapting to difference. Increasing nurses' understanding of the experiential aspects of oral cancer in this population is required if nurses are to develop successful health promotion programmes and nursing interventions to meet these patients' needs.

A re-examination of the Ghrelin and Ghrelin receptor genes

The last few years have seen dramatic advances in genomics, including the discovery of a large number of non-coding and antisense transcripts. This has revolutionised our understanding of multifaceted transcript structures found within gene loci and their roles in the regulation of development, neurogenesis and other complex processes. The recent and continuing surge of knowledge has prompted researchers to reassess and further dissect gene loci. The ghrelin gene (GHRL) gives rise to preproghrelin, which in turn produces ghrelin, a 28 amino acid peptide hormone that acts via the ghrelin receptor (growth hormone secretagogue receptor/GHSR 1a). Ghrelin has many important physiological and pathophysiological roles, including the stimulation of growth hormone (GH) release, appetite regulation, and cancer development. A truncated receptor splice variant, GHSR 1b, does not bind ghrelin, but dimerises with GHSR 1a, and may act as a dominant negative receptor. The gene products of ghrelin and its receptor are frequently overexpressed in human cancer While it is well known that the ghrelin axis (ghrelin and its receptor) plays a range of important functional roles, little is known about the molecular structure and regulation of the ghrelin gene (GHRL) and ghrelin receptor gene (GHSR). This thesis reports the re-annotation of the ghrelin gene, discovery of alternative 5’ exons and transcription start sites, as well as the description of a number of novel splice variants, including isoforms with a putative signal peptide. We also describe the discovery and characterisation of a ghrelin antisense gene (GHRLOS), and the discovery and expression of a ghrelin receptor (growth hormone secretagogue receptor/GHSR) antisense gene (GHSR-OS). We have identified numerous ghrelin-derived transcripts, including variants with extended 5' untranslated regions and putative secreted obestatin and C-ghrelin transcripts. These transcripts initiate from novel first exons, exon -1, exon 0 and a 5' extended 1, with multiple transcription start sites. We used comparative genomics to identify, and RT-PCR to experimentally verify, that the proximal exon 0 and 5' extended exon 1 are transcribed in the mouse ghrelin gene, which suggests the mouse and human proximal first exon architecture is conserved. We have identified numerous novel antisense transcripts in the ghrelin locus. A candidate non-coding endogenous natural antisense gene (GHRLOS) was cloned and demonstrates very low expression levels in the stomach and high levels in the thymus, testis and brain - all major tissues of non-coding RNA expression. Next, we examined if transcription occurs in the antisense orientation to the ghrelin receptor gene, GHSR. A novel gene (GHSR-OS) on the opposite strand of intron 1 of the GHSR gene was identified and characterised using strand-specific RT-PCR and rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RACE). GHSR-OS is differentially expressed and a candidate non-coding RNA gene. In summary, this study has characterised the ghrelin and ghrelin receptor loci and demonstrated natural antisense transcripts to ghrelin and its receptor. Our preliminary work shows that the ghrelin axis generates a broad and complex transcriptional repertoire. This study provides the basis for detailed functional studies of the the ghrelin and GHSR loci and future studies will be needed to further unravel the function, diagnostic and therapeutic potential of the ghrelin axis.

Australian cinema’s dark sun : the boom in Australian horror film production

There has been a boom in Australian horror movie production in recent years. Daybreakers (2010), Wolf Creek (2005), Rogue (2007), Undead (2003), Black Water (2008), and Storm Warning (2006) among others, have all experienced varying degrees of popularity, mainstream visibility, and cult success in worldwide horror markets. While Aussie horror’s renaissance is widely acknowledged in industry literature, there is limited research into the extent of the boom and the dynamics of production. Consequently, there are few explanations for why and how this surge has occurred. This paper argues that the recent growth in Australian horror films has been driven by intersecting international market forces, domestic financing factors, and technological change. In so doing, it identifies two distinct tiers of Australian horror film production: ‘mainstream’ and ‘underground’ production; though overlap between these two tiers results in ‘high-end indie’ films capable of cinema release. Each tier represents the high and low-ends of Australian horror film production, each with different financing, production, and distribution models.

Adiabatic compression testing - part II : background and approach to estimating severity of test methodology

Adiabatic compression testing of components in gaseous oxygen is a test method that is utilized worldwide and is commonly required to qualify a component for ignition tolerance under its intended service. This testing is required by many industry standards organizations and government agencies; however, a thorough evaluation of the test parameters and test system influences on the thermal energy produced during the test has not yet been performed. This paper presents a background for adiabatic compression testing and discusses an approach to estimating potential differences in the thermal profiles produced by different test laboratories. A “Thermal Profile Test Fixture” (TPTF) is described that is capable of measuring and characterizing the thermal energy for a typical pressure shock by any test system. The test systems at Wendell Hull & Associates, Inc. (WHA) in the USA and at the BAM Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing in Germany are compared in this manner and some of the data obtained is presented. The paper also introduces a new way of comparing the test method to idealized processes to perform system-by-system comparisons. Thus, the paper introduces an “Idealized Severity Index” (ISI) of the thermal energy to characterize a rapid pressure surge. From the TPTF data a “Test Severity Index” (TSI) can also be calculated so that the thermal energies developed by different test systems can be compared to each other and to the ISI for the equivalent isentropic process. Finally, a “Service Severity Index” (SSI) is introduced to characterizing the thermal energy of actual service conditions. This paper is the second in a series of publications planned on the subject of adiabatic compression testing.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Outbreak in Australia: Impact on Emergency Departments.

Executive summary Objective: The aims of this study were to identify the impact of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza on Australian Emergency Departments (EDs) and their staff, and to inform planning, preparedness, and response management arrangements for future pandemics, as well as managing infectious patients presenting to EDs in everyday practice. Methods This study involved three elements: 1. The first element of the study was an examination of published material including published statistics. Standard literature research methods were used to identify relevant published articles. In addition, data about ED demand was obtained from Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) publications, with several state health departments providing more detailed data. 2. The second element of the study was a survey of Directors of Emergency Medicine identified with the assistance of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM). This survey retrieved data about demand for ED services and elicited qualitative comments on the impact of the pandemic on ED management. 3. The third element of the study was a survey of ED staff. A questionnaire was emailed to members of three professional colleges—the ACEM; the Australian College of Emergency Nursing (ACEN); and the College of Emergency Nursing Australasia (CENA). The overall response rate for the survey was 18.4%, with 618 usable responses from 3355 distributed questionnaires. Topics covered by the survey included ED conditions during the (H1N1) 2009 influenza pandemic; information received about Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza; pandemic plans; the impact of the pandemic on ED staff with respect to stress; illness prevention measures; support received from others in work role; staff and others’ illness during the pandemic; other factors causing ED staff to miss work during the pandemic; and vaccination against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected and analysed. Results: The results obtained from Directors of Emergency Medicine quantifying the impact of the pandemic were too limited for interpretation. Data sourced from health departments and published sources demonstrated an increase in influenza-like illness (ILI) presentations of between one and a half and three times the normal level of presentations of ILIs. Directors of Emergency Medicine reported a reasonable level of preparation for the pandemic, with most reporting the use of pandemic plans that translated into relatively effective operational infection control responses. Directors reported a highly significant impact on EDs and their staff from the pandemic. Growth in demand and related ED congestion were highly significant factors causing distress within the departments. Most (64%) respondents established a ‘flu clinic’ either as part of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Outbreak in Australia: Impact on Emergency Departments. the ED operations or external to it. They did not note a significantly higher rate of sick leave than usual. Responses relating to the impact on staff were proportional to the size of the colleges. Most respondents felt strongly that Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on demand in their ED, with most patients having low levels of clinical urgency. Most respondents felt that the pandemic had a negative impact on the care of other patients, and 94% revealed some increase in stress due to lack of space for patients, increased demand, and filling staff deficits. Levels of concern about themselves or their family members contracting the illness were less significant than expected. Nurses displayed significantly higher levels of stress overall, particularly in relation to skill-mix requirements, lack of supplies and equipment, and patient and patients’ family aggression. More than one-third of respondents became ill with an ILI. Whilst respondents themselves reported taking low levels of sick leave, respondents cited difficulties with replacing absent staff. Ranked from highest to lowest, respondents gained useful support from ED colleagues, ED administration, their hospital occupational health department, hospital administration, professional colleges, state health department, and their unions. Respondents were generally positive about the information they received overall; however, the volume of information was considered excessive and sometimes inconsistent. The media was criticised as scaremongering and sensationalist and as being the cause of many unnecessary presentations to EDs. Of concern to the investigators was that a large proportion (43%) of respondents did not know whether a pandemic plan existed for their department or hospital. A small number of staff reported being redeployed from their usual workplace for personal risk factors or operational reasons. As at the time of survey (29 October –18 December 2009), 26% of ED staff reported being vaccinated against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Of those not vaccinated, half indicated they would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ not get vaccinated, with the main reasons being the vaccine was ‘rushed into production’, ‘not properly tested’, ‘came out too late’, or not needed due to prior infection or exposure, or due to the mildness of the disease. Conclusion: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on Australian Emergency Departments. The pandemic exposed problems in existing plans, particularly a lack of guidelines, general information overload, and confusion due to the lack of a single authoritative information source. Of concern was the high proportion of respondents who did not know if their hospital or department had a pandemic plan. Nationally, the pandemic communication strategy needs a detailed review, with more engagement with media networks to encourage responsible and consistent reporting. Also of concern was the low level of immunisation, and the low level of intention to accept vaccination. This is a problem seen in many previous studies relating to seasonal influenza and health care workers. The design of EDs needs to be addressed to better manage infectious patients. Significant workforce issues were confronted in this pandemic, including maintaining appropriate staffing levels; staff exposure to illness; access to, and appropriate use of, personal protective equipment (PPE); and the difficulties associated with working in PPE for prolonged periods. An administrative issue of note was the reporting requirement, which created considerable additional stress for staff within EDs. Peer and local support strategies helped ensure staff felt their needs were provided for, creating resilience, dependability, and stability in the ED workforce. Policies regarding the establishment of flu clinics need to be reviewed. The ability to create surge capacity within EDs by considering staffing, equipment, physical space, and stores is of primary importance for future pandemics.

Hydrodynamic and thruster model validation for autonomous underwater vehicles

From Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to the Duke Kahanamoku Aquatic Complex; we develop the theory and generate implementable time efficient trajectories for a test-bed autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). This paper is the beginning of the journey from theory to implementation. We begin by considering pure motion trajectories and move into a rectangular trajectory which is a concatenation of pure surge and pure sway. These trajectories are tested using our numerical model and demonstrated by our AUV in the pool. In this paper we demonstrate that the above motions are realizable through our method, and we gain confidence in our numerical model. We conclude that using our current techniques, implementation of time efficient trajectories is likely to succeed.

The exemplification of governance principles within state asset management laws and policies : the case of Indonesia

Efficient state asset management is crucial for governments as they facilitate the fulfillment of their public functions, which include the provision of essential services and other public administration support. In recent times economies internationally and particularly in South east Asia, have displayed increased recognition of the importance of efficiencies across state asset management law, policies and practice. This has been exemplified by a surge in notable instances of reform in state asset management. A prominent theme in this phenomenon is the consideration of governance principles within the re-conceptualization of state asset management law and related policy, with many countries recognizing variability in the quality of asset governance and opportunities for profit as being critical factors. This issue is very current in Indonesia where a major reform process in this area has been confirmed by the establishment of a new Directorate of State Asset Management. The incumbent Director-General of State Asset Management has confirmed a re-emphasis on adherence to governance principles within applicable state asset management law and policy reform. This paper reviews aspects of the challenge of reviewing and reforming Indonesian practice within state asset management law and policy specifically related to public housing, public buildings, parklands, and vacant land. A critical issue in beginning this review is how Indonesia currently conceptualizes the notion of asset governance and how this meaning is embodied in recent changes in law and policy and importantly in options for future change. This paper discusses the potential complexities uniquely Indonesian characteristics such as decentralisation and regional autonomy regime, political history, and bureaucratic culture

Taking stock of temporary organizational forms : a systematic review and research agenda

This paper brings together the research on temporary organizational forms. Despite a recent surge in publications on this topic, there have been few attempts to integrate knowledge on what we know of such temporary forms of organization. In order to correct this, an integrative framework is proposed around four central themes: time, team, task and context. Within each of these themes, the paper offers an overview of the literature, the gaps in what we know, and what future directions might be taken by scholars hoping to contribute to this important and rapidly growing field.

Nascent entrepreneurship

The past two decades have witnessed a surge in interest in the field of nascent entrepreneurship. In this collection, the editors successfully draw together the most important works that utilize the new real-time approaches for studying early stage entrepreneurial activity that were developed and refined in the last couple of decades. Providing the empirical, theoretical and methodological insights from some of the most influential researchers in this field, this book is an indispensable source of reference for researchers, students and others who have an interest in new venture creation and its role in the economy.