Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.

Timed artificial insemination programs during the summer in lactating dairy cows: Comparison of the 5-d Cosynch protocol with an estrogen/progesterone-based protocol

The objective of this study was to compare a GnRH-based to an estrogen/progesterone (E2/P4)-based protocol for estrous cycle synchronization and fixed timed artificial insemination (TAI), both designed for synchronization of ovulation and to reduce the period from follicular emergence until ovulation in cows with a synchronized follicular wave. A total of 1,190 lactating Holstein cows (primiparous: n = 685 and multiparous: n = 505) yielding 26.5 ± 0.30 kg of milk/d at 177 ± 5.02 d in milk were randomly assigned to receive one of the following programs: 5-d Cosynch protocol [d -8: controlled internal drug release (CIDR) + GnRH; d -3: CIDR removal + PGF2α; d -2: PGF2α; d 0: TAI + GnRH] or E2/P4 protocol (d -10: CIDR + estradiol benzoate; d -3: PGF2α; d -2: CIDR removal + estradiol cypionate; d 0: TAI). Rectal temperature and circulating progesterone (P4) were measured on d -3, -2, 0 (TAI), and 7. The estrous cycle was considered to be synchronized when P4 was ≥1.0 ng/mL on d 7 in cows that had luteolysis (P4 ≤0.4 ng/mL on d 0). To evaluate the effects of heat stress, cows were classified by number of heat stress events: 0, 1, and 2-or-more measurements of elevated body temperature (≥39.1°C). Pregnancy success (pregnancy per artificial insemination, P/AI) was determined at d 32 and 60 after TAI. The cows in the 5-d Cosynch protocol had increased circulating P4 at the time of PGF2α injection (2.66 ± 0.13 vs. 1.66 ± 0.13 ng/mL). The cows in the E2/P4 protocol were more likely to be detected in estrus (62.8 vs. 43.4%) compared with the cows in the 5-d Cosynch protocol, and expression of estrus improved P/AI in both treatments. The cows in the 5-d Cosynch protocol had greater percentage of synchronized estrous cycle (78.2%), compared with cows in the E2/P4 protocol (70.7%). On d 60, the E2/P4 protocol tended to improve P/AI (20.7 vs. 16.7%) and reduced pregnancy loss from 32 to 60 d (11.0 vs. 19.6%), compared with the 5-d Cosynch protocol. In cows with their estrous cycle synchronized, the E2/P4 protocol had greater P/AI (25.6 vs. 17.7%) on d 60 and lower pregnancy loss from 32 to 60 d (6.7 vs. 21.7%) compared with cows in the 5-d Cosynch protocol. Follicle diameter affected pregnancy loss from 32 to 60 d only in the cows in the 5-d Cosynch protocol, with smaller follicles resulting in greater pregnancy loss. Pregnancy per AI at d 60 was different between protocols in the cows with 2 or more measurements of heat stress (5-d Cosynch = 12.2% vs. E2/P4 = 22.8%), but not in the cows without or with 1 heat stress measurement. In conclusion, the 5-d Cosynch protocol apparently produced better estrous cycle synchronization than the E2/P4 protocol but did not improve P/AI. The potential explanation for these results is that increased E2 concentrations during the periovulatory period can improve pregnancy success and pregnancy maintenance, and this effect appears to be greatest in heat-stressed cows when circulating E2 may be reduced. © 2013 American Dairy Science Association.

Mass occurrence of the cubomedusa Copula sivickisi (Cnidaria: Cubozoa) at Seto Harbor, Shirahama, Wakayama, Japan in summer of 2013, a recent example of global warming

More than 200 very young medusae of Copula sivickisi (Stiasny) were collected within totally 60 minutes at two nights in June, 2013 at the Seto Harbor, Shirahama, Wakayama, Japan. This mass occurrence might be related to recent global warming at Shirahama, known as the northernmost distributional locality of this cubozoan species. It is assumed that the polyp stage of this species may live in the surrounding areas, because there jellyfish were small size (most are less than 1.6 mm height) that was conceivable as the newly released one from the polyp.

Variability of the subtropical shelf front off eastern South America: Winter 2003 and summer 2004

Hydrographic data collected during surveys carried out in austral winter 2003 and summer 2004 are used to analyze the distributions of temperature (T) and salinity (S) over the continental shelf and slope of eastern South America between 27 degrees S and 39 degrees S. The water mass structure and the characteristics of the transition between subantarctic and subtropical shelf water (STSW), referred to as the subtropical shelf front (STSF), as revealed by the vertical structure of temperature and salinity are discussed. During both surveys, the front intensifies downward and extends southwestward from the near coastal zone at 33 degrees S to the shelf break at 36 degrees S. In austral winter subantarctic shelf water (SASW), derived from the northern Patagonia shelf, forms a vertically coherent cold wedge of low salinity waters that locally separate the outer shelf STSW from the fresher inner shelf Plata Plume Water (PPW) derived from the Rio de la Plata. Winter T-S diagrams and cross-shelf T and S distributions indicate that mixtures of PPW and tropical water only occur beyond the northernmost extent of pure SASW, and form STSW and an inverted thermocline characteristic of this region. In summer 2004, dilution of Tropical water (TW) occurs at two distinct levels: a warm near surface layer, associated to PPW-TW mixtures, similar to but significantly warmer than winter STSW, and a colder (T similar to 16 degrees C) salinity minimum layer at 40-50 m depth, created by SASW-STSW mixtures across the STSF. In winter, the salinity distribution controls the density structure creating a cross-shore density gradient, which prevents isopycnal mixing across the STSF. Temperature stratification in summer induces a sharp pycnocline providing cross-shelf isopycnal connections across the STSF. Cooling and freshening of the upper layer observed at stations collected along the western edge of the Brazil Current suggest offshore export of shelf waters. Low T and S filaments, evident along the shelf break in the winter data, suggest that submesoscale eddies may enhance the property exchange across the shelf break. These observations suggest that as the subsurface shelf waters converge at the STSF, they flow southward along the front and are expelled offshore, primarily along the front axis. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolism and biomass vertical distribution of zooplankton in the Bransfield Strait during the austral summer of 2000

[EN] The vertical distribution (0?550 m) of zooplankton biomass, and indices of respiration (electron transfer system [ETS]) and structural growth (aminoacyltRNA synthetases activity [AARS]), were studied in waters off the Antarctic Peninsula during the austral summer of 2000. The dominant species were the copepod Metridia gerlachei and the euphausiid Euphausia superba. We observed a vertical krill/copepod substitution in the water column. The zooplankton biomass in the layer at a depth of 200?500 m was of the same magnitude as the biomass in the layer at a depth of 0?200 m, indicating that biomass in the mesopelagic zone is an important fraction of the total zooplankton in Antarctic waters. The metabolic rates of the zooplankton community were sustained by less than 0.5% of the primary production in the area, suggesting that microplankton or small copepods are the main food source. Neither food availability nor predation seemed to control mesozooplankton biomass. The wide time lag between the abundance peak of the dominant copepod (M. gerlachei) and the phytoplankton bloom is suggested to be the main explanation for the low summer zooplankton biomass observed in these waters.

Lessons for Science from the "Year without a Summer" of 1816. What does it take for science to respond to climate change?

Science is responding in manifold ways to current climate change. What are the perquisites for response, and how can we structure the response? By studying the historical climatic event “Year without a Summer” of 1816 and by relating to Fleck’s theory of genesis and development of a scientific fact, we posit that responding refers to making interlinkages between different notions of climatic change.