Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

"Caindo na cana" com Marilyn Monroe: tempo, espaço e "bóias-frias"

Neste artigo pretendo discutir um drama social ("cair na cana") que marca a passagem para uma condição ambígua, liminar. Se uma das experiências associadas ao "modernismo" é a de vivermos simultaneamente em tempos e espaços diferentes, certamente os "bóias-frias" são nossos contemporâneos modernistas. Paradoxalmente, em se tratando de uma imagem que certamente seduziu alguns campos intelectuais durante os anos 70 e 80, teriam as tentativas de definir o "bóia-fria", transformando imagem em categoria, contribuindo para a sua constituição em uma espécie de fóssil recente da produção academica?

Statistical classification of road pavements using near field vehicle rolling noise measurements

Low noise surfaces have been increasingly considered as a viable and cost-effective alternative to acoustical barriers. However, road planners and administrators frequently lack information on the correlation between the type of road surface and the resulting noise emission profile. To address this problem, a method to identify and classify different types of road pavements was developed, whereby near field road noise is analyzed using statistical learning methods. The vehicle rolling sound signal near the tires and close to the road surface was acquired by two microphones in a special arrangement which implements the Close-Proximity method. A set of features, characterizing the properties of the road pavement, was extracted from the corresponding sound profiles. A feature selection method was used to automatically select those that are most relevant in predicting the type of pavement, while reducing the computational cost. A set of different types of road pavement segments were tested and the performance of the classifier was evaluated. Results of pavement classification performed during a road journey are presented on a map, together with geographical data. This procedure leads to a considerable improvement in the quality of road pavement noise data, thereby increasing the accuracy of road traffic noise prediction models.

Statistical motion learning for improved transform domain Wyner-Ziv video coding

Wyner - Ziv (WZ) video coding is a particular case of distributed video coding (DVC), the recent video coding paradigm based on the Slepian - Wolf and Wyner - Ziv theorems which exploits the source temporal correlation at the decoder and not at the encoder as in predictive video coding. Although some progress has been made in the last years, WZ video coding is still far from the compression performance of predictive video coding, especially for high and complex motion contents. The WZ video codec adopted in this study is based on a transform domain WZ video coding architecture with feedback channel-driven rate control, whose modules have been improved with some recent coding tools. This study proposes a novel motion learning approach to successively improve the rate-distortion (RD) performance of the WZ video codec as the decoding proceeds, making use of the already decoded transform bands to improve the decoding process for the remaining transform bands. The results obtained reveal gains up to 2.3 dB in the RD curves against the performance for the same codec without the proposed motion learning approach for high motion sequences and long group of pictures (GOP) sizes.

Bias dependent photocurrent collection in p-i-n a-Si : EVSiC : H heterojunction

A series of large area single layers and heterojunction cells in the assembly glass/ZnO:Al/p (SixC1-x:H)/i (Si:H)/n (SixC1-x:H)/Al (0

Bias-dependent photocurrent collection in p-i-n a-Si : H/SiC : H heterojunction

A series of large area single layers and glass/ZnO:AVp(SixC1-x:H)/i(Si:H)/n(SixC1-x:H)/AI (0 < x < 1) heterojunction cells were produced by plasma-enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PE-CVD) at low temperature. Junction properties, carrier transport and photogeneration are investigated from dark and illuminated current-voltage (J-V) and capacitance-voltage (C-V) characteristics. For the heterojunction cells atypical J-V characteristics under different illumination conditions are observed leading to poor fill factors. High series resistances around 106 Q are also measured. These experimental results were used as a basis for the numerical simulation of the energy band diagram, and the electrical field distribution of the structures. Further comparison with the sensor performance gave satisfactory agreement. Results show that the conduction band offset is the most limiting parameter for the optimal collection of the photogenerated carriers. As the optical gap increases and the conductivity of the doped layers decreases, the transport mechanism changes from a drift to a diffusion-limited process.

Colour filtering in a-SiC : H based p-i-n-p-i-n cells: A trade-off between bias polarity and absorption regions

A large area colour imager optically addressed is presented. The colour imager consists of a thin wide band gap p-i-n a-SiC:H filtering element deposited on the top of a thick large area a-SiC:H(-p)/a-Si:H(-i)/a-SiC:H(-n) image sensor, which reveals itself an intrinsic colour filter. In order to tune the external applied voltage for full colour discrimination the photocurrent generated by a modulated red light is measured under different optical and electrical bias. Results reveal that the integrated device behaves itself as an imager and a filter giving information not only on the position where the optical image is absorbed but also on it wavelength and intensity. The amplitude and sign of the image signals are electrically tuneable. In a wide range of incident fluxes and under reverse bias, the red and blue image signals are opposite in sign and the green signal is suppressed allowing blue and red colour recognition. The green information is obtained under forward bias, where the blue signal goes down to zero and the red and green remain constant. Combining the information obtained at this two applied voltages a RGB colour image picture can be acquired without the need of the usual colour filters or pixel architecture. A numerical simulation supports the colour filter analysis.

: SiC Multilayer Photonic Structures with Self Optical Bias Amplification

Characteristics of tunable wavelength pi'n/pin filters based on a-SiC:H multilayered stacked cells are studied both experimental and theoretically. Results show that the device combines the demultiplexing operation with the simultaneous photodetection and self amplification of the signal. An algorithm to decode the multiplex signal is established. A capacitive active band-pass filter model is presented and supported by an electrical simulation of the state variable filter circuit. Experimental and simulated results show that the device acts as a state variable filter. It combines the properties of active high-pass and low-pass filter sections into a capacitive active band-pass filter using a changing photo capacitance to control the power delivered to the load.

Reconfigurable SiC Embedded Photonic Structures with Self Optical Bias Control

Multilayered heterostructures based on embedded a-Si:H and a-SiC:H p-i-n filters are analyzed from differential voltage design perspective using short- and long-pass filters. The transfer functions characteristics are presented. A numerical simulation is presented to explain the filtering properties of the photonic devices. Several monochromatic pulsed lights, separately (input channels) or in a polychromatic mixture (multiplexed signal) at different bit rates, illuminated the device. Steady-state optical bias is superimposed from the front and the back side. Results show that depending on the wavelength of the external background and impinging side, the device acts either as a short- or a long-pass band filter or as a band-stop filter. Particular attention is given to the amplification coefficient weights, which allow to take into account the wavelength background effects when a band or frequency needs to be filtered or the gate switch, in which optical active filter gates are used to select and filter input signals to specific output ports in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) communication systems. This nonlinearity provides the possibility for selective removal or addition of wavelengths. A truth table of an encoder that performs 8-to-1 MUX function exemplifies the optoelectronic conversion.

Saúde de famílias do Movimento dos Trabalhadores Sem Terra e de bóias-frias, Brasil, 2005

OBJETIVO: Avaliar as condições de saúde de famílias ligadas ao Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra e de bóias-frias. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se estudo comparativo de três populações: assentamento e acampamento do Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra, e famílias de bóias-frias, em Unaí, MG, em 2005. Foram coletados os dados referentes às características sociodemográficas e familiares por meio de questionários aplicados a 202 famílias, e realizadas observação estruturada e discussões em grupo. Realizou-se a análise fatorial discriminante para se verificar diferenças entre as comunidades. RESULTADOS: As três comunidades apresentaram uma média de 89%, caracterizando-se como grupos distintos e reforçando a hipótese de que são realmente diferentes entre si em termos de suas condições de vida e saúde. Os trabalhadores bóias-frias apresentaram um alto índice de insegurança alimentar (39,5%), quase o dobro da proporção entre as famílias acampadas e quatro vezes mais que as assentadas. Com uma renda variável e baixa, os bóias-frias estavam mais expostos aos agrotóxicos se comparados aos assentados e acampados. A produção animal desenvolvida por todas as famílias assentadas foi uma característica marcante, ao contrário das famílias bóias-frias que praticamente não contavam com essa possibilidade na cidade. Segundo a percepção das famílias assentadas e acampadas, o Sistema Único de Saúde não tem atendido as necessidades de saúde da maioria delas, principalmente pela dificuldade do acesso aos serviços. Para esse grupo, o atendimento de suas necessidades se dá após reivindicações e pressões sobre os governos. CONCLUSÕES: Segundo a percepção das famílias do Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra, o fato de ser do Movimento e estar organizado melhora suas perspectivas de saúde, em comparação aos bóias-frias. Os resultados da modernização conservadora no campo brasileiro têm agravado as condições de vida dos bóias-frias gerando uma superexploração do trabalho humano, enquanto que a Reforma Agrária tem possibilitado uma melhor qualidade de vida e saúde para as famílias, quando comparadas nas áreas estudadas.

Analysis of tongue shape and motion in speech production using statistical modeling

The mechanisms of speech production are complex and have been raising attention from researchers of both medical and computer vision fields. In the speech production mechanism, the articulator’s study is a complex issue, since they have a high level of freedom along this process, namely the tongue, which instigates a problem in its control and observation. In this work it is automatically characterized the tongues shape during the articulation of the oral vowels of Portuguese European by using statistical modeling on MR-images. A point distribution model is built from a set of images collected during artificially sustained articulations of Portuguese European sounds, which can extract the main characteristics of the motion of the tongue. The model built in this work allows under standing more clearly the dynamic speech events involved during sustained articulations. The tongue shape model built can also be useful for speech rehabilitation purposes, specifically to recognize the compensatory movements of the articulators during speech production.

Statistical analysis of quality control measurements in IMRT for head and neck and prostate cancer

Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) is a technique introduced to shape more precisely the dose distributions to the tumour, providing a higher dose escalation in the volume to irradiate and simultaneously decreasing the dose in the organs at risk which consequently reduces the treatment toxicity. This technique is widely used in prostate and head and neck (H&N) tumours. Given the complexity and the use of high doses in this technique it’s necessary to ensure as a safe and secure administration of the treatment, through the use of quality control programmes for IMRT. The purpose of this study was to evaluate statistically the quality control measurements that are made for the IMRT plans in prostate and H&N patients, before the beginning of the treatment, analysing their variations, the percentage of rejected and repeated measurements, the average, standard deviations and the proportion relations.

Laccase–Prussian blue film–graphene doped carbon paste modified electrode for carbamate pesticides quantification

A novel enzymatic biosensor for carbamate pesticides detection was developed through the direct immobilization of Trametes versicolor laccase on graphene doped carbon paste electrode functionalized with Prussianblue films (LACC/PB/GPE). Graphene was prepared by graphite sonication-assisted exfoliation and characterized by transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectro- scopy. The Prussian blue film electrodeposited onto graphene doped carbon paste electrode allowed considerable reduction of the charge transfer resistance and of the capacitance of the device.The combined effects of pH, enzyme concentration and incubation time on biosensor response were optimized using a 23 full-factorial statistical design and response surface methodology. Based on the inhibition of laccase activity and using 4-aminophenol as redox mediator at pH 5.0,LACC/PB/GPE exhibited suitable characteristics in terms of sensitivity, intra-and inter-day repeatability (1.8–3.8% RSD), reproducibility (4.1 and 6.3%RSD),selectivity(13.2% bias at the higher interference: substrate ratios tested),accuracy and stability(ca. twenty days)for quantification of five carbamates widely applied on tomato and potato crops.The attained detection limits ranged between 5.2×10−9 mol L−1(0.002 mg kg−1 w/w for ziram)and 1.0×10−7 mol L−1 (0.022 mg kg−1 w/w for carbofuran).Recovery values for the two tested spiking levels ranged from 90.2±0.1%(carbofuran)to 101.1±0.3% (ziram) for tomato and from 91.0±0.1%(formetanate)to 100.8±0.1%(ziram)for potato samples.The proposed methodology is appropriate to enable testing pesticide levels in food samples to fit with regulations and food inspections.