Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.

Spatial regimes: dynamics of intentional homicides in the city of Sao Paulo between 2000 and 2008

Objective. To identify the existence of spatial and temporal patterns in the occurrence of intentional homicides in the municipality of Sao Paulo (MSP), Brazil, and to discuss the analytical value of taking such patterns into account when designing studies that address the dynamics and factors associated with the incidence of homicides. Methods. A longitudinal ecological study was conducted, having as units of analysis 13 205 census tracts and the 96 census districts that congregate these sectors in Sao Paulo. All intentional homicides reported in the city between 2000 and 2008 were analyzed. The gross homicide rates per 100 000 population was calculated as well as the global and local Bayesian estimates for each census tract during the study period. To verify the possibility of identifying different patterns of the spatial distribution of homicides, we used BoxMap and Moran's I index. Results. The homicide trends in the city of Sao Paulo in the last decade were not homogeneous and systematic. Instead, seven patterns of spatial distribution were identified; that is, seven spatial regimes for the occurrence of intentional homicides, considering the homicide rates within each census tract as well as the rates in adjacent tracts. These spatial distribution regimes were not contained within the limits of the census tracts and districts. Conclusions. The results show the importance of analyzing the spatial distribution of social phenomena without restriction of political and administrative boundaries.

Influence of spatial constraints in non-crystalline regions on the polymer dynamics in semi-crystalline polyethylene: a solid state NMR study

A broad variety of solid state NMR techniques were used to investigate the chain dynamics in several polyethylene (PE) samples, including ultrahigh molecular weight PEs (UHMW-PEs) and low molecular weight PEs (LMW-PEs). Via changing the processing history, i.e. melt/solution crystallization and drawing processes, these samples gain different morphologies, leading to different molecular dynamics. Due to the long chain nature, the molecular dynamics of polyethylene can be distinguished in local fluctuation and long range motion. With the help of NMR these different kinds of molecular dynamics can be monitored separately. In this work the local chain dynamics in non-crystalline regions of polyethylene samples was investigated via measuring 1H-13C heteronuclear dipolar coupling and 13C chemical shift anisotropy (CSA). By analyzing the motionally averaged 1H-13C heteronuclear dipolar coupling and 13C CSA, the information about the local anisotropy and geometry of motion was obtained. Taking advantage of the big difference of the 13C T1 relaxation time in crystalline and non-crystalline regions of PEs, the 1D 13C MAS exchange experiment was used to investigate the cooperative chain motion between these regions. The different chain organizations in non-crystalline regions were used to explain the relationship between the local fluctuation and the long range motion of the samples. In a simple manner the cooperative chain motion between crystalline and non-crystalline regions of PE results in the experimentally observed diffusive behavior of PE chain. The morphological influences on the diffusion motion have been discussed. The morphological factors include lamellar thickness, chain organization in non-crystalline regions and chain entanglements. Thermodynamics of the diffusion motion in melt and solution crystallized UHMW-PEs is discussed, revealing entropy-controlled features of the chain diffusion in PE. This thermodynamic consideration explains the counterintuitive relationship between the local fluctuation and the long range motion of the samples. Using the chain diffusion coefficient, the rates of jump motion in crystals of the melt crystallized PE have been calculated. A concept of "effective" jump motion has been proposed to explain the difference between the values derived from the chain diffusion coefficients and those in literatures. The observations of this thesis give a clear demonstration of the strong relationship between the sample morphology and chain dynamics. The sample morphologies governed by the processing history lead to different spatial constraints for the molecular chains, leading to different features of the local and long range chain dynamics. The knowledge of the morphological influence on the microscopic chain motion has many implications in our understanding of the alpha-relaxation process in PE and the related phenomena such as crystal thickening, drawability of PE, the easy creep of PE fiber, etc.

Dynamics of Spatial Game Theory Networks with Novel Modifications

Introduction: Advances in biotechnology have shed light on many biological processes. In biological networks, nodes are used to represent the function of individual entities within a system and have historically been studied in isolation. Network structure adds edges that enable communication between nodes. An emerging fieldis to combine node function and network structure to yield network function. One of the most complex networks known in biology is the neural network within the brain. Modeling neural function will require an understanding of networks, dynamics, andneurophysiology. It is with this work that modeling techniques will be developed to work at this complex intersection. Methods: Spatial game theory was developed by Nowak in the context of modeling evolutionary dynamics, or the way in which species evolve over time. Spatial game theory offers a two dimensional view of analyzingthe state of neighbors and updating based on the surroundings. Our work builds upon this foundation by studying evolutionary game theory networks with respect to neural networks. This novel concept is that neurons may adopt a particular strategy that will allow propagation of information. The strategy may therefore act as the mechanism for gating. Furthermore, the strategy of a neuron, as in a real brain, isimpacted by the strategy of its neighbors. The techniques of spatial game theory already established by Nowak are repeated to explain two basic cases and validate the implementation of code. Two novel modifications are introduced in Chapters 3 and 4 that build on this network and may reflect neural networks. Results: The introduction of two novel modifications, mutation and rewiring, in large parametricstudies resulted in dynamics that had an intermediate amount of nodes firing at any given time. Further, even small mutation rates result in different dynamics more representative of the ideal state hypothesized. Conclusions: In both modificationsto Nowak's model, the results demonstrate the network does not become locked into a particular global state of passing all information or blocking all information. It is hypothesized that normal brain function occurs within this intermediate range and that a number of diseases are the result of moving outside of this range.

Spatial and Temporal Melt Variability at Helheim Glacier, East Greenland, and Its Effect on Ice Dynamics

Understanding the behavior of large outlet glaciers draining the Greenland Ice Sheet is critical for assessing the impact of climate change on sea level rise. The flow of marine-terminating outlet glaciers is partly governed by calving-related processes taking place at the terminus but is also influenced by the drainage of surface runoff to the bed through moulins, cracks, and other pathways. To investigate the extent of the latter effect, we develop a distributed surface-energy-balance model for Helheim Glacier, East Greenland, to calculate surface melt and thereby estimate runoff. The model is driven by data from an automatic weather station operated on the glacier during the summers of 2007 and 2008, and calibrated with independent measurements of ablation. Modeled melt varies over the deployment period by as much as 68% relative to the mean, with melt rates approximately 77% higher on the lower reaches of the glacier trunk than on the upper glacier. We compare melt variations during the summer season to estimates of surface velocity derived from global positioning system surveys. Near the front of the glacier, there is a significant correlation (on >95% levels) between variations in runoff (estimated from surface melt) and variations in velocity, with a 1 day delay in velocity relative to melt. Although the velocity changes are small compared to accelerations previously observed following some calving events, our findings suggest that the flow speed of Helheim Glacier is sensitive to changes in runoff. The response is most significant in the heavily crevassed, fast-moving region near the calving front. The delay in the peak of the cross-correlation function implies a transit time of 12-36 h for surface runoff to reach the bed.

Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics.

The onset of measles vaccination in England and Wales in 1968 coincided with a marked drop in the temporal correlation of epidemic patterns between major cities. We analyze a variety of hypotheses for the mechanisms driving this change. Straightforward stochastic models suggest that the interaction between a lowered susceptible population (and hence increased demographic noise) and nonlinear dynamics is sufficient to cause the observed drop in correlation. The decorrelation of epidemics could potentially lessen the chance of global extinction and so inhibit attempts at measles eradication.

Spatial integration and cortical dynamics.

Cells in adult primary visual cortex are capable of integrating information over much larger portions of the visual field than was originally thought. Moreover, their receptive field properties can be altered by the context within which local features are presented and by changes in visual experience. The substrate for both spatial integration and cortical plasticity is likely to be found in a plexus of long-range horizontal connections, formed by cortical pyramidal cells, which link cells within each cortical area over distances of 6-8 mm. The relationship between horizontal connections and cortical functional architecture suggests a role in visual segmentation and spatial integration. The distribution of lateral interactions within striate cortex was visualized with optical recording, and their functional consequences were explored by using comparable stimuli in human psychophysical experiments and in recordings from alert monkeys. They may represent the substrate for perceptual phenomena such as illusory contours, surface fill-in, and contour saliency. The dynamic nature of receptive field properties and cortical architecture has been seen over time scales ranging from seconds to months. One can induce a remapping of the topography of visual cortex by making focal binocular retinal lesions. Shorter-term plasticity of cortical receptive fields was observed following brief periods of visual stimulation. The mechanisms involved entailed, for the short-term changes, altering the effectiveness of existing cortical connections, and for the long-term changes, sprouting of axon collaterals and synaptogenesis. The mutability of cortical function implies a continual process of calibration and normalization of the perception of visual attributes that is dependent on sensory experience throughout adulthood and might further represent the mechanism of perceptual learning.

Spatial patterns of aerobic and anaerobic mineralization rates and oxygen penetration dynamics in coral reef sediments

Oxygen consumption rates (OCR), aerobic mineralization and sulfate reduction rates (SRR) were studied in the permeable carbonate reef sediments of Heron Reef, Australia. We selected 4 stations with different hydrodynamic regimes for this study. In situ oxygen penetration into the sediments was measured with an autonomous microsensor profiler. Areal OCR were quantified from the measured oxygen penetration depth and volumetric OCR. Oxygen penetration and dynamics (median penetration depths at the 4 stations ranged between 0.3 and 2.2 cm), OCR (median 57 to 196 mmol C m(-2) d(-1)), aerobic mineralization (median 24 to 176 mmol C m(-2) d(-1)) and SRR (median 9 to 42 mmol C m(-2) d(-1)) were highly variable between sites. The supply of oxygen by pore water advection was a major cause for high mineralization rates by stimulating aerobic mineralization at all sites. However, estimated bottom water filtration rates could not explain the differences in volumetric OCR and SRR between the 4 stations. This suggests that local mineralization rates are additionally controlled by factors other than current driven pore water advection, e.g. by the distribution of the benthic fauna or by local differences in labile organic carbon supply from sources such as benthic photosynthesis. Carbon mineralization rates were among the highest reported for coral reef sediments, stressing the role of these sediments in the functioning of the reef ecosystem.

The spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of brain regions activated during the perception of object and non-object patterns

Both animal and human studies suggest that the efficiency with which we are able to grasp objects is attributable to a repertoire of motor signals derived directly from vision. This is in general agreement with the long-held belief that the automatic generation of motor signals by the perception of objects is based on the actions they afford. In this study, we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to determine the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of brain regions activated during passive viewing of object and non-object targets that varied in the extent to which they afforded a grasping action. Synthetic Aperture Magnetometry (SAM) was used to localize task-related oscillatory power changes within specific frequency bands, and the time course of activity within given regions-of-interest was determined by calculating time-frequency plots using a Morlet wavelet transform. Both single subject and group-averaged data on the spatial distribution of brain activity are presented. We show that: (i) significant reductions in 10-25 Hz activity within extrastriate cortex, occipito-temporal cortex, sensori-motor cortex and cerebellum were evident with passive viewing of both objects and non-objects; and (ii) reductions in oscillatory activity within the posterior part of the superior parietal cortex (area Ba7) were only evident with the perception of objects. Assuming that focal reductions in low-frequency oscillations (< 30 Hz) reflect areas of heightened neural activity, we conclude that: (i) activity within a network of brain areas, including the sensori-motor cortex, is not critically dependent on stimulus type and may reflect general changes in visual attention; and (ii) the posterior part of the superior parietal cortex, area Ba7, is activated preferentially by objects and may play a role in computations related to grasping. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Spatial-temporal Dynamics in the System of Economic Security of Different Subjects of Economic Management

The importance to solve the problem of spatial-temporal dynamics analysis in the system of economic security of different subjects of economic management is substantiated. Various methods and approaches for carrying out analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in the system of economic security are considered. The basis of the generalized analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in economic systems is offered.

Spatial organisation of groundwater dynamics and streamflow response from different hydropedological units in a montane catchment

Funding was provided by the Leibniz Association (SAW-2012-IGB 4167) within the International Leibniz Graduate School: Aquatic boundaries and linkages- Aqualink. We would like to thank the NRI staff for their help during field work.

Dynamics of spatial heterogeneity in a landfill with interacting phase densities:a stochastic analysis

A landfill represents a complex and dynamically evolving structure that can be stochastically perturbed by exogenous factors. Both thermodynamic (equilibrium) and time varying (non-steady state) properties of a landfill are affected by spatially heterogenous and nonlinear subprocesses that combine with constraining initial and boundary conditions arising from the associated surroundings. While multiple approaches have been made to model landfill statistics by incorporating spatially dependent parameters on the one hand (data based approach) and continuum dynamical mass-balance equations on the other (equation based modelling), practically no attempt has been made to amalgamate these two approaches while also incorporating inherent stochastically induced fluctuations affecting the process overall. In this article, we will implement a minimalist scheme of modelling the time evolution of a realistic three dimensional landfill through a reaction-diffusion based approach, focusing on the coupled interactions of four key variables - solid mass density, hydrolysed mass density, acetogenic mass density and methanogenic mass density, that themselves are stochastically affected by fluctuations, coupled with diffusive relaxation of the individual densities, in ambient surroundings. Our results indicate that close to the linearly stable limit, the large time steady state properties, arising out of a series of complex coupled interactions between the stochastically driven variables, are scarcely affected by the biochemical growth-decay statistics. Our results clearly show that an equilibrium landfill structure is primarily determined by the solid and hydrolysed mass densities only rendering the other variables as statistically "irrelevant" in this (large time) asymptotic limit. The other major implication of incorporation of stochasticity in the landfill evolution dynamics is in the hugely reduced production times of the plants that are now approximately 20-30 years instead of the previous deterministic model predictions of 50 years and above. The predictions from this stochastic model are in conformity with available experimental observations.