The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets

Aims. Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle (number 24). We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods. We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results. The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets. Conclusions. We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

Application of ionospheric corrections in the equatorial region for L1 GPS users

In the absence of the selective availability, which was turned off on May 1, 2000, the ionosphere can be the largest source of error in GPS positioning and navigation. Its effects on GPS observable cause a code delays and phase advances. The magnitude of this error is affected by the local time of the day, season, solar cycle, geographical location of the receiver and Earth's magnetic field. As it is well known, the ionosphere is the main drawback for high accuracy positioning, when using single frequency receivers, either for point positioning or relative positioning of medium and long baselines. The ionosphere effects were investigated in the determination of point positioning and relative positioning using single frequency data. A model represented by a Fourier series type was implemented and the parameters were estimated from data collected at the active stations of RBMC (Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of GPS satellites). The data input were the pseudorange observables filtered by the carrier phase. Quality control was implemented in order to analyse the adjustment and to validate the significance of the estimated parameters. Experiments were carried out in the equatorial region, using data collected from dual frequency receivers. In order to validate the model, the estimated values were compared with ground truth. For point and relative positioning of baselines of approximately 100 km, the values of the discrepancies indicated an error reduction better than 80% and 50% respectively, compared to the processing without the ionospheric model. These results give an indication that more research has to be done in order to provide support to the L1 GPS users in the Equatorial region.

Higher order ionospheric effects in GNSS positioning in the European region

After removal of the Selective Availability in 2000, the ionosphere became the dominant error source for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), especially for the high-accuracy (cm-mm) demanding applications like the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) and Real Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning.The common practice of eliminating the ionospheric error, e. g. by the ionosphere free (IF) observable, which is a linear combination of observables on two frequencies such as GPS L1 and L2, accounts for about 99% of the total ionospheric effect, known as the first order ionospheric effect (Ion1). The remaining 1% residual range errors (RREs) in the IF observable are due to the higher - second and third, order ionospheric effects, Ion2 and Ion3, respectively. Both terms are related with the electron content along the signal path; moreover Ion2 term is associated with the influence of the geomagnetic field on the ionospheric refractive index and Ion3 with the ray bending effect of the ionosphere, which can cause significant deviation in the ray trajectory (due to strong electron density gradients in the ionosphere) such that the error contribution of Ion3 can exceed that of Ion2 (Kim and Tinin, 2007).The higher order error terms do not cancel out in the (first order) ionospherically corrected observable and as such, when not accounted for, they can degrade the accuracy of GNSS positioning, depending on the level of the solar activity and geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions (Hoque and Jakowski, 2007). Simulation results from early 1990s show that Ion2 and Ion3 would contribute to the ionospheric error budget by less than 1% of the Ion1 term at GPS frequencies (Datta-Barua et al., 2008). Although the IF observable may provide sufficient accuracy for most GNSS applications, Ion2 and Ion3 need to be considered for higher accuracy demanding applications especially at times of higher solar activity.This paper investigates the higher order ionospheric effects (Ion2 and Ion3, however excluding the ray bending effects associated with Ion3) in the European region in the GNSS positioning considering the precise point positioning (PPP) method. For this purpose observations from four European stations were considered. These observations were taken in four time intervals corresponding to various geophysical conditions: the active and quiet periods of the solar cycle, 2001 and 2006, respectively, excluding the effects of disturbances in the geomagnetic field (i.e. geomagnetic storms), as well as the years of 2001 and 2003, this time including the impact of geomagnetic disturbances. The program RINEX_HO (Marques et al., 2011) was used to calculate the magnitudes of Ion2 and Ion3 on the range measurements as well as the total electron content (TEC) observed on each receiver-satellite link. The program also corrects the GPS observation files for Ion2 and Ion3; thereafter it is possible to perform PPP with both the original and corrected GPS observation files to analyze the impact of the higher order ionospheric error terms excluding the ray bending effect which may become significant especially at low elevation angles (Ioannides and Strangeways, 2002) on the estimated station coordinates.

Efeitos de tempestades magnéticas em sinais de gps, em Natal, Brasil

Satellites signals present disturbances (scintillations), due to presence of irregularities in the ionospheric plasma. In the present work, we dedicate to the study of the attenuation of these scintillations that is, an improvement in the signal, during the main magnetic storm phase during the period of October 2006 to February 2007. Using amplitude of scintillation 1.5GHz (L1) data of the net of satellites GPS, in the ionospheric station of Natal (5.84o S, 35.20o O, -20o dip) and geomagnetic indices, during the minimum solar cycle (referred to as cycle 23), demonstrating its anti-correlation between magnetic activity (Kp) and index of scintillation () (Bonelli2005 method, that works for solar maximum, Bonelli(2005)). These results show that these storms correspond to category I of Aarons (1991). The magnetic storms can generate irregularities when the electric feld of penetration eastward on the pre-reversal hour intensificating that and can too generate irregularities on midnight and sunlight period. The limitation of the method applied here is that it is not considering some storms that had also occurred during equinox and summer in the Brazilian region. For this reason, we will use additional data of the stations of São João de Cariri (Imager and Photometer) and of the station at Fortaleza (Digissonde data), as aid to analyze these storms. The storms that had been left out by the applied method, fit in the other two categories of Aarons, with one only exception (storm of January, 02). We show that in the day of the main phase of the magnetic storm, and with presence of bubbles (according to data of the Imager and Photometer), the speed of vertical drift ~E ~B (hF=t) is below 20m/s, that is the threshold found for Anderson al., (2004) (>20m/s as condition favorable to the formation of irregularities and increase in the scintillation index). This reduction of the speed is due to solar minimum

Reproductive phenology of Atlantic forest tree species in Brazil: An eleven year study

This paper describes the reproductive phenorhythms of tree species in a tropical seasonal lowland forest in Southeastern Brazil. Every two weeks, five individuals of 41 species were observed for the occurrence of flowering and fruiting, from May 1982 to December 1992. All phenophases showed high seasonality, when considering the whole set of species, but the amplitude of the cycles was much more variable between years; only 13 species had regular flowering. Infra-annual flowering and fruiting were found in 11 and four species, respectively, while only one species flowered and fruited continually. Supra-annual cycles were observed in four (flowering) and seven (fruiting) species. An increase was observed in number of species and individuals flowering and fruiting from 1990 to 1992, following mainly an elevation in the absolute minimum air temperature. These data suggest a relationship between reproductive phenology and major climatic phenomena like El Niño events and solar activity cycles. © International Society for Tropical Ecology.

Estimativa e análise de índices de irregularidades da ionosfera utilizando dados GPS de redes ativas

Observable GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) are affected by systematic errors due to free electrons present in the ionosphere. The error associated with the ionosphere depends on the Total Electron Content (TEC), which is influenced by several variables: solar cycle, season, local time, geomagnetic activity and geographic location. The GPS (Global Positioning System), GLONASS (Global Orbiting Navigation Satellite System) and Galileo dual frequency receivers allow the calculation of the error that affects the GNSS observables and the TEC. Using the rate of change of TEC (ROT - Rate of TEC) indices that indicate irregularities of the ionosphere can be determined, allowing inferences about its behavior. Currently it is possible to perform such studies in Brazil, due to the several Active Networks available, such as RBMC/RIBaC (Rede Brasileira de Monitoramento Contínuo/Rede INCRA de Bases Comunitárias) and GNSS Active Network of São Paulo. The proposed research aimed at estimating and analysing of indexes of irregularities of the ionosphere, besides supplying the geosciences of information about the behavior of the ionosphere.

Avaliação de funções para modelagem do efeito da refratação ionosférica na propagação dos sinais GPS

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Investigações preliminares sobre a influência do clima espacial no posicionamento relativo com GNSS

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Desempenho do RTK em rede sob efeito da cintilação ionosférica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Millennial-scale climate cycles in Permian-Carboniferous rhythmites: Permanent feature throughout geologic time?

Two late Paleozoic glacial rhythmite successions from the Itarare Group (Parana Basin, Brazil) were examined for paleoclimate variations. Paleomagnetic (characteristic remanent magnetization, ChRM) and magnetic susceptibility (K(z)) measurements taken from the rhythmites are interpreted as paleoclimatic proxies. Ratios of low-frequency components in the K(z) variations suggest Milankovitch periodicities; this leads to recognition of other, millennial-scale variations reminiscent of abrupt climate changes during late Quaternary time, and are suggestive of Bond cycles and the 2.4 k.y. solar cycle. We infer from these patterns that millennial-scale climate change is not restricted to the Quaternary Period, and that millennial forcing mechanisms may have been prevalent throughout geologic time.

Diagnose der Residuumszirkulation und ihre Bedeutung für die Klimavariabilität der Stratosphäre

Mit einem in dieser Arbeit entwickelten Diagnose-Werkzeug wird im Rahmenrneines einfachen mechanistischenModells die Residuumszirkulation in der Stratosphärernermittelt. Die Residuumszirkulation wird als eine Schlüsselgröße für diernKlimavariabilität der Stratosphäre angesehen. Für die Diagnose wird mit einemrnmechanistischem Modell die Ausbreitung und das Brechen planetarer Wellenrnbeschrieben und der daraus resultierende Wellenantrieb bestimmt. Dieser Wellenantriebrnwird verwendet, um mit der numerischen Lösung einer elliptischenrnDifferentialgleichung die Residuumszirkulation zu berechnen.rnDieses Diagnose-Werkzeug wird genutzt, um in atmosphärischen Reanalysedatenrnden Zusammenhang der Residuumszirkulation mit verschiedenen Modenrnstratosphärischer Klimavariabilität zu untersuchen. Während für unterschiedlichernPhasen der quasi-zweijährigen Schwingung und der Nordatlantischen Oszillationrndie Residuumszirkulation deutliche Unterschiede aufzeigt, kann ein Einflussrndes 11-jährigen Sonnenfleckenzyklus auf die Residuumszirkulation nichtrneindeutig nachgewiesen werden. Eine Datenstudie zeigt, dass in den WintermonatenrnDezember und Januar die Stärke der Residuumszirkulation mit derrnTemperatur der unteren polaren Stratosphäre signifikant korreliert ist.

A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Annual 10Be concentrations from Lakes Tiefer See and Czechowskie AD1983-2009

Beryllium 10 concentrations (10Becon) were measured at annual resolution from varved sediment cores of Lakes Tiefer See (TSK) and Czechowskie (JC) for the period 1983-2009 (~solar cycles 22 and 23). Calibrating the 10Becon time-series against complementing proxy records from the same archive as well as local precipitation and neutron monitor data, reflecting solar forced changes in atmospheric radionuclide production, allowed (i) identifying the main depositional processes and (ii) evaluating the potential for solar activity reconstruction. 10Becon in TSK and JC sediments are significantly correlated to varying neutron monitor counts (TSK: r=0.5, p=0.05, n=16; JC: r=0.46, p=0.03, n=22). However, the further correlations with changes in organic carbon contents in TSK as well as varying organic carbon and detrital matter contents in JC point to catchment specific biases in the 10Becon time-series. In an attempt to correct for these biases multiple regression analysis was applied to extract an atmospheric 10Be production signal (10Be atmosphere). To increase the signal to noise ratio a 10Be composite record (10Be composite) was calculated from the TSK and JC 10Be atmosphere time-series. 10Becomposite is significantly correlated to variations in the neutron monitor record (r=0.49, p=0.01, n=27) and matches the expected amplitude changes in 10Be production between solar cycle minima and maxima. This calibration study on 10Be from two sites indicates the large potential but also, partly site-specific, limitations of 10Be in varved lake sediments for solar activity reconstruction.

Do amanhecer ao crepúsculo: o ambiente inteiro por minhas narrativas

The matrix of this dissertation research permeates the design of complex environmental education. Its purpose is the realistic utopia of sustainability focused on the elucidation of a cultural model, a way of life that can guarantee the preservation of the living and non-living wight, to compose a world in which all coexist in harmony. To do so, thinking that model permeates the understanding that we are nature. This understanding can be evidenced both in Karl Marx in his book, the Economic and Philosophical Manuscripts says: "Nature is the essential body of the human being", and Joël de Rosnay, in his book The Symbiotic Man explains that we humans, "are the neurons of the earth." In this same perspective, Elisabet Sahtouris, in his book The Dance of the Earth, has pointed out how little is accurate to say that "there is life on Earth," because we are knowledgeable that our planet is a living organism, then there is the "life of the Earth ". Thus, we are part of this life, we are a part of the whole. With long experience in the environmental field, I seek the collective understanding that environmental education is a process belonging to all areas of knowledge, while margins for its subdivision occasion that begins the role of librarian I am, as a mediator of educational, cultural process, and disseminate information, is an environmental educator. Research conducted lead me to propose a revision of values and attitudes, from a certain reorganization of thought, an ecology of ideas and action, evidenced by readings of education and complexity, especially tuned to the writings of Edgar Morin. This thesis makes use of metaphor as a cognitive operator to emphasize the solar cycle, linking it to the development stages of this work. In summary, we have as a goal to emphasize the importance of the human condition, respect for nature and the principle of natural, cultural and social interdependence. In order for us to have a society that values relationships of solidarity with each other, respect and gratitude for living beings and Mother Earth. What leads me to converge, the reframing of the environment, understanding it as Integer Environment