Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Ethics and citizenship : tools for moral decision-making.

Cumple con los requisitos exigidos en el curriculo nacional inglés de 2002 para el programa de estudio de educación para la ciudadanía en la etapa de secundaria. De los tres elementos que tiene este programa: la cultura política, la participación comunitaria, y la responsabilidad social y moral, esta guía quiere resaltar este último aspecto. Pues,pretende el desarrollo espiritual, moral, social y cultural en los alumnos y, también, el desarrollo de habilidades tanto, para la comunicación, la utilización de las nuevas tecnologías, el trabajo en equipo y la resolución de problemas, como para saber desenvolverse en la vida.

A system's model for maintenance support and decision making in building services systems

Modern buildings are designed to enhance the match between environment, spaces and the people carrying out work, so that the well-being and the performance of the occupants are all in harmony. Building services are systems that facilitate a healthy working environment within which workers productivity can be optimised in the buildings. However, the maintenance of these services is fraught with problems that may contribute to up to 50% of the total life cycle cost of the building. Maintenance support is one area which is not usually designed into the system as this is not common practice in the services industry. The other areas of shortfall for future designs are; client requirements, commissioning, facilities management data and post occupancy evaluation feedback which needs to be adequately planned to capture and document this information for use in future designs. At the University of Reading an integrated approach has been developed to assemble the multitude of aspects inherent in this field. The means records required and measured achievements for the benefit of both building owners and practitioners. This integrated approach can be represented in a Through Life Business Model (TLBM) format using the concept of Integrated Logistic Support (ILS). The prototype TLBM developed utilises the tailored tools and techniques of ILS for building services. This TLBM approach will facilitate the successful development of a databank that would be invaluable in capturing essential data (e.g. reliability of components) for enhancing future building services designs, life cycle costing and decision making by practitioners, in particular facilities managers.

Responsibility effects in decision making under risk

We systematically explore decision situations in which a decision maker bears responsibility for somebody else's outcomes as well as for her own in situations of payoff equality. In the gain domain we confirm the intuition that being responsible for somebody else's payoffs increases risk aversion. This is however not attributable to a 'cautious shift' as often thought. Indeed, looking at risk attitudes in the loss domain, we find an increase in risk seeking under responsibility. This raises issues about the nature of various decision biases under risk, and to what extent changed behavior under responsibility may depend on a social norm of caution in situations of responsibility versus naive corrections from perceived biases. To further explore this issue, we designed a second experiment to explore risk-taking behavior for gain prospects offering very small or very large probabilities of winning. For large probabilities, we find increased risk aversion, thus confirming our earlier finding. For small probabilities however, we find an increase of risk seeking under conditions of responsibility. The latter finding thus discredits hypotheses of a social rule dictating caution under responsibility, and can be explained through flexible self-correction models predicting an accentuation of the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes predicted by prospect theory. An additional accountability mechanism does not change risk behavior, except for mixed prospects, in which it reduces loss aversion. This indicates that loss aversion is of a fundamentally different nature than probability weighting or utility curvature. Implications for debiasing are discussed.

Shared decision-making in mental health care : a user perspective on decisional needs in community-based services

BACKGROUND: Shared decision-making (SDM) is an emergent research topic in the field of mental health care and is considered to be a central component of a recovery-oriented system. Despite the evidence suggesting the benefits of this change in the power relationship between users and practitioners, the method has not been widely implemented in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate decisional and information needs among users with mental illness as a prerequisite for the development of a decision support tool aimed at supporting SDM in community-based mental health services in Sweden. METHODS: Three semi-structured focus group interviews were conducted with 22 adult users with mental illness. The transcribed interviews were analyzed using a directed content analysis. This method was used to develop an in-depth understanding of the decisional process as well as to validate and conceptually extend Elwyn et al.'s model of SDM. RESULTS: The model Elwyn et al. have created for SDM in somatic care fits well for mental health services, both in terms of process and content. However, the results also suggest an extension of the model because decisions related to mental illness are often complex and involve a number of life domains. Issues related to social context and individual recovery point to the need for a preparation phase focused on establishing cooperation and mutual understanding as well as a clear follow-up phase that allows for feedback and adjustments to the decision-making process. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The current study contributes to a deeper understanding of decisional and information needs among users of community-based mental health services that may reduce barriers to participation in decision-making. The results also shed light on attitudinal, relationship-based, and cognitive factors that are important to consider in adapting SDM in the mental health system.

Conceptual framework of the precautionary principle approach in the decision-making process

This article reviews the precautionary principle as an approach in addressing decisions with far reaching environmental consequences under scientific uncertainty. The precautionary principle is intended to assist with structuring environmentally risky decisions toward sustainable development. It responds to the lack of scientific evidence of a potential environmental problem. There is currently no framework to assist with the process indicating the areas of importance and stages of decisionmaking. This paper suggests a framework to assist with the process of decision-making for complex environmental problems. The main areas of concern are the issues relating to the costs, risks, and benefits assessments. The main stages of the framework includes; definition of the problem, analysis of the potential environmental risks, assessments of specific anticipated legal, social, economic, political, and technological impacts, review of the key players (social, organisation and government) obligations, comparison of alternatives available, determination of accountability, implementation, decision making, monitoring and control processes.

Harm reduction and decision making among recreational ecstasy users

Recent research indicates that 3,4-methylene-dioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), also known as ‘ecstasy’, is becoming increasingly popular as an illicit drug among young people. This study investigated risk and harm reduction practices among recreational ecstasy users. A semi-structured interview with 40 participants was designed to investigate how ecstasy users identify and manage the harms associated with their drug use, and the underlying decision-making process. Overall, the participants identified both positive and negative effects. The reported positive effects predominantly centred around enhanced psychological, physiological and social experiences. However, there were a number of factors that contributed to regulating ecstasy use. These included specific in-group and out-group practices executed within the peer group, preventative harm-reducing practices, shared decision making, and shared responsibility for harm prevention. Recommendations for promoting harm reduction strategies and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Decision making to support an integrated infrastructure supply chain industrial ecological approach within public private partnerships

Supply chains are complex adaptive systems for which final performance depends upon numerous interdependent decisions made by numerous firms which synthesise inputs from various resources systems.  The dynamic interdependent behaviour of social, economic, material and informational resource systems within eco-industrial settings that support the built environment life cycle supply chains can be studied at the supply chain level.  The impact of megaprojects is significant and holds promise to explore the impact of decisions on various systems as it combines project and system boundaries.  Megaoprojects considered as major events within systems can produce critical revolutionary impacts on the systems within which they are embedded.  The decisions that are made on megaprojects are central to risk management.  typically major infrastructure projects are procured through a form of public private partnership (PPP).  The core principle of PPP is value for money which refers to the best available outcome attempting to take account of all benefits, costs and risks over the whole life of the procurement.  In this paper the focus is on Australia where there has been considerable acitivity in the use of PPPs.  With recent national infrastucture packages proposed to stimulate the economy due to the global financial crisis, decision modelling on risks is a revelant and critical matter not only in practice but also in the research community.  PPPs encourage the whole-of-lifecycle approach in the procurement and management of public sector assets by transparently recognising the costs and risks associated with the whole life of the required service or facility, thus integrated whole of life supply chains can be considered.  By creating a single point of responsibility for an entire project from inception through operation, a strong incentive is created for thinking about the effects that a design or construction decision will have on the effectiveness and efficiency of managing and maintaining a facility during its operational life.  The decision to procure holistic supply chains becomes a much more viable commercial reality in the PPP environment than previously considered in the usual commercial construction spot transactional approach.  These types of decisions tend to be imprecise, approximate and complex requireing justification and reasoning logic rather than the classical 'truth' logic.  The purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical decision framework which combines interdependency and multi-values logic for supply chain procurement modelling.

Caprice versus standardization in venture capital decision making

This study examined the criteria used by venture capitalists to evaluate business plans in order to make investment decisions. A literature survey revealed two competing theories: 'espoused criteria' where evaluation decisions are based on what venture capitalists say are the decisive factors, versus the use of 'known attributes' that successful ventures actually possess. Brunswik's Lens Model from Social Judgment Theory guided an empirical investigation of several different evaluation methods based on information contained in 129 business plans submitted for venture capital over a three-year period. Data evaluation culminated in the comparison of the percentage of correct decisions ('hit rate') for each method. We found that decisions based on the known attributes of successful ventures have significantly better hit rates than decisions made using espoused criteria. Discussion centered on the goal of achieving consistency in the conduct of venture analysis. Process standardization can aid in the achievement of consistency. Future research will both deepen and broaden insights.

Critical care nurses' haemodynamic decision making

For cardiac surgical patients, the immediate 2-hour recovery period is distinguished by potentially life-threatening haemodynamic instability. To ensure optimum patient outcomes, nurses of varying levels of experience must make rapid and accurate decisions in response to episodes of haemodynamic instability. Decision complexity, nurses’ characteristics, and environmental characteristics, have each been found to influence nurses' decision making in some form. However, the effect of the interplay between these influences on decision outcomes has not been investigated. The aim of the research reported in this thesis was to explore variability in critical care nurses' haemodynamic decision making as a function of interplay between haemodynamic decision complexity, nurses' experience, and specific environmental characteristics by applying a naturalistic decision making design. Thirty-eight nurses were observed recovering patients in the immediate 2-hour period after cardiac surgery. A follow-up semi-structured interview was conducted. A naturalistic decision making approach was used. An organising framework for the goals of therapy related to maintaining haemodynamic stability after cardiac surgery was developed to assist the observation and analysis of practice. The three goals of therapy were the optimisation of cardiovascular performance, the promotion of haemostasia, and the reestablishment of normothermia. The research was conducted in two phases. Phase One explored issues related to observation as method, and identified emergent themes. Phase Two incorporated findings of Phase 1, investigating the variability in nurses' haemodynamic decision making in relation to the three goals of therapy. The findings showed that patients had a high acuity after cardiac surgery and suffered numerous episodes of haemodynamic instability during the immediate 2-hour recovery period. The quality of nurses' decision making in relation to the three goals of therapy was influenced by the experience of the nurse and social interactions with colleagues. Experienced nurses demonstrated decision making that reflected the ability to recognise subtle changes in haemodynamic cues, integrate complex combinations of cues, and respond rapidly to instability. The quality of inexperienced nurses' decision making varied according to the level and form of decision support as well as the complexity of the task. When assistance was provided by nursing colleagues during the reception and recovery of patients, the characteristics of team decision making were observed. Team decision making in this context was categorised as either integrated or non integrated. Team decision making influenced nurses' emotions and actions and decision making practices. Findings revealed nurses' experience affected interactions with other team members and their perceptions of assuming responsibility for complex patients. Interplay between decision complexity, nurses' experience, and the environment in which decisions were made influenced the quality of nurses' decision making and created an environment of team decision making, which, in turn, influenced nurses' emotional responses and practice outcomes. The observed variability in haemodynamic decision making has implications for nurse education, nursing practice, and system processes regarding patient allocation and clinical supervision.

Child protection practitioners and decision-making tools : observations and reflections from the front line

Decision-making tools, particularly risk-assessment tools, have been implemented by governments around the world, perhaps most notably in the field of child protection, though little attention has been paid to how practitioners use them. This article presents the findings from ethnographic research that explored how child protection practitioners in the Department of Child Safety, Queensland, Australia, used four Structured Decision Making tools developed by the Children's Research Centre in Wisconsin in their daily practice in the intake and investigation stages of a case. The findings that the tools were not being used as intended by their designers and, in fact, tended to undermine the development of expertise by child protection workers has profound implications for the future development of technological approaches to child protection and, more broadly, human services practice.

The client's complex decision-making environment on international mega projects

More than ever before, architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) firms are working on international mega projects. The mega project environment offers a range of opportunities for firms but is but is characterised by a high level of risk and uncertainty. International mega projects bring together networks of people with differing backgrounds and cultures to work in unfamiliar locations to integrate the social, economic, technical and political components of design and construction. Within such an intense environment there is a process of rapid relationship development at an unprecedented level. The interests and power relations on such projects are often very strong given the vast amount of money, jobs, environmental impacts, publicity and national prestige involved. Therefore in a field as costly or consequential as mega project design and construction there is an increased need to effectively manage these projects given the associated high risks of failure. Internationalisation is a relatively new field of research in the AEC sector and past research has tended to focus on explaining the attitudes and behaviour of the industry itself towards improving performance on such projects. To date there has been little research investigating the sophistication of the international client in terms of their regular business environment which is characterised by a set of social, economic and political responsibilities. The values that clients ascribe to their everyday practices and experiences inevitably condition how they act economically, which in turn impacts upon project decision-making. Clients establish the structural organisation of project teams through the procurement strategy and establish the context for effective decision-making. To a large extent they establish a unique culture that project team members need to work within and make decisions. Since clients establish the context within which firms operate the findings of past studies on the industry’s position and attitudes are more indicative than enlightening. Clients occupy a distinctly different position in the construction supply chain and therefore experience and respond to project matters based upon their environment and not the construction industry environment. Clients are confronted with uncertainties and need support to help them understand the critical role that they play in creating good decision-making environments. This theoretical paper seeks to develop a rationale for studying the client’s complex decision-making environment on international mega projects. Specifically it charts the quest for improved industry performance through client leadership as documented in various industry and government publications since the 1940s and highlights that there has been considerable attention to address industry problems through client leadership, however, with little evidence that the issues have been resolved. This paper is positioned within a PhD study, which seeks to move beyond the aspirations of policymakers and idealistic descriptions of how clients ought to behave to explain the reality of what really happens on mega project client decision-making based upon a critique of cultural political economy.

Client leadership capacity on international projects : exploring the client's complex decision-making environment through a critical cultural political economy lens

The global construction environment offers stakeholders a range of opportunities but is characterised by a high level of risks and uncertainty. Internationalisation is a relatively new field of research in the AEC sector and past research has largely focused on explaining the behaviour of the industry itself. To date there has been little research investigating the client's leadership role. Much effort has been placed on positioning clients towards overall industry performance improvement, however, with little emphasis on the client's capacity to undertake their role. Clients establish the decision-making environment through key early critical decisions including procurement strategy and team membership. To a large extent they establish a unique culture that project team members need to work within and make decisions, which is the social and cultural embedding of the economic activities on projects. This theoretical paper is positioned within a PhD study which undertakes a cultural political economy perspective to investigate the client's central role in setting the boundaries within which decisions affecting budgets, quality, design, project organisational structure and team membership throughout the project lifecycle come to be made. A conceptual model for client leadership on international projects is developed based upon two contextual indicators which seeks to describe and explain the economic decisions clients make, which are deeply embedded in social relationships, shared meanings and cultural norms and the associated power and influence clients have on the political economy of international design and construction practice. This paper also seeks to develop a research question for future empirical testing.

Cows, cockies and atlases : use and abuse of biodiversity monitoring in environmental decision making

Lesson #I. Good long-term monitoring makes for informed and confident decisions on land management.
Lesson #2. Monitoring showing species and habitat decline can directly lead to better protection mechanisms.
Lesson #3. Results of monitoring can be ignored, misused and misquoted to achieve political ends.
Lesson #4. Are we seeing a decline in systematic species surveys by government?
Lesson #5. We don't know enough about what monitoring is happening and why monitoring isn't happening.
Lesson #6. Disparate data sets and cumbersome collection methods are hindering species status monitoring.
Lesson #7. Make better use of existing resomces and expertise.
Lesson #8. Make monitoring data more accessible and enable it to be more repeatable.
Lesson #9. Embed the requirement for monitoring in biodiversity and threatened species legislation.
Lesson #10. Understand better the social elements of ecological monitoring