War crimes, conditionality and EU integration in the Western Balkans

The baleful legacy of the wars of the 1990s continues to dog the states and societies of the former Yugoslavia and has overshadowed the disappointingly slow and hesitant trajectory of the region towards the EU. At the start of the new millennium, with the removal of key wartime leaders from the political scene in both Croatia and Serbia, it was widely hoped that the region would prove able to ���leave the past behind��� and rapidly move on to the hopeful new agenda of EU integration. The EU���s Copenhagen criteria, which in 1993 first explicitly set out the basic political conditions expected of aspirant EU Member States, proved effective in the case of the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe in supporting the entrenchment of democratic norms and practices, and stimulating reconciliation and good neighbourly relations among countries with turbulent histories. Building on this experience, the Stabilisation and Association Process, launched for the countries of the Western Balkans in 1999, included both full cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and regional reconciliation among the political conditions set for advancing these countries on the path to EU integration. EU political conditionality was intended to support the efforts of new political leaders to redefine national goals away from the nationalist enmities of the past and focus firmly on forging a path to a better future. This Chaillot Paper examines the extent to which this strategy has worked, especially in the light of the difficulties it has encountered in the face of strong resistance to cooperation among sections of the former Yugoslav population, many of whom have not yet fully acknowledged the crimes committed during the 1990s. Key chapters in the volume raise the vital questions of leadership and political will. EU political conditionality does not work unless the EU has a partner ready and willing to ���play the game���, which presupposes that EU integration has become the overriding priority on the national political agenda.

Lions and roses: An interpretive history of Israeli-Iranian relations

This multi-disciplinary research project explores the religious and cultural foundations within the "master commemorative narratives" that frame Israeli and Iranian political discourse. In articulating their grievances against one another, Israeli and Iranian leaders express the tensions between religion, nationalism, and modernity in their own societies. The theoretical and methodological approach of this dissertation is constructivist-interpretivist. The concept of "master commemorative narratives" is adapted from Yael Zerubavel's study of ritualized remembrance in Israeli political culture, and applied to both Israeli and Iranian foreign policy. Israel���s master commemorative narrative draws heavily upon the language of the Hebrew Bible, situating foreign policy discourse within a paradigm of covenantal patrimony, exile, and return, despite the unrelenting hostility of eternal enemies and "the nations." Iran���s master commemorative narrative expresses Iranian suspicion of foreign encroachment and interference, and of the internal corruption that they engender, sacralizing resistance to the forces of evil in the figurative language and myths of pre-Islamic tradition and of Shi'a Islam. Using a constructivist-interpretive methodological approach, this research offers a unique interpretive analysis of the parallels between these narratives, where they intersect, and where they come into conflict. It highlights both the broad appeal and the diverse challenges to the components of these "master" narratives within Israeli and Iranian politics and society. The conclusion of this study explains the ways in which the recognition of religious and cultural conflicts through the optic of master commemorative narratives can complement the perspectives of other theoretical approaches and challenge the conventions of Security Studies. It also suggests some of the potential practical applications of this research in devising more effective international diplomacy.

Different Wars Require Different Strategies: Separating the ���War on Drugs��� from the ���War on Drug [Traffickers]���

Using the securitization framework to highlight the arguments that facilitated the ���War on Drugs���, this paper highlights a separate war against drug traffickers. Facilitated by ideology through the rhetoric promoted by the ���War on Drugs,��� the fear of communist expansion and democratic contraction, the ���War on Drug Traffickers��� was implemented, requiring its own strategy separate from the ���War on Drugs.��� This is an important distinction because the play on words changes the perception of the issue from one of drug addiction to one of weak institutions and insurgent/terrorist threat to those institutions. Furthermore, one cannot propose strategy to win, lose, or retreat in a war that one has been unable to identify properly. And while the all-encompassing ���War on Drugs��� has motivated tremendous discourse on its failure and possible solutions to remedy its failure, the generalizations made as a result of the inability to distinguish between the policies behind drug addiction and the militarized policies behind drug trafficking have discounted the effect of violence perpetrated by the state, the rationale for the state perpetrating that violence, and the dependence that the state has on foreign actors to perpetrate such violence. This makes it impossible to not only propose effective strategy but also to persuade states that participate in the ���War on Drug Traffickers��� to adopt the proposed strategy.

Lions and Roses: An Interpretive History of Israeli-Iranian Relations

This multi-disciplinary research project explores the religious and cultural foundations within the ���master commemorative narratives��� that frame Israeli and Iranian political discourse. In articulating their grievances against one another, Israeli and Iranian leaders express the tensions between religion, nationalism, and modernity in their own societies. The theoretical and methodological approach of this dissertation is constructivist-interpretivist. The concept of ���master commemorative narratives��� is adapted from Yael Zerubavel���s study of ritualized remembrance in Israeli political culture, and applied to both Israeli and Iranian foreign policy. Israel���s master commemorative narrative draws heavily upon the language of the Hebrew Bible, situating foreign policy discourse within a paradigm of covenantal patrimony, exile, and return, despite the unrelenting hostility of eternal enemies and ���the nations.��� Iran���s master commemorative narrative expresses Iranian suspicion of foreign encroachment and interference, and of the internal corruption that they engender, sacralizing resistance to the forces of evil in the figurative language and myths of pre-Islamic tradition and of Shi���a Islam. Using a constructivist-interpretive methodological approach, this research offers a unique interpretive analysis of the parallels between these narratives, where they intersect, and where they come into conflict. It highlights both the broad appeal and the diverse challenges to the components of these ���master��� narratives within Israeli and Iranian politics and society. The conclusion of this study explains the ways in which the recognition of religious and cultural conflicts through the optic of master commemorative narratives can complement the perspectives of other theoretical approaches and challenge the conventions of Security Studies. It also suggests some of the potential practical applications of this research in devising more effective international diplomacy.

Temor, silencio y deliberaci��n: la inhibici��n de la opini��n en Tuc��dides

Tuc��dides es una de nuestras mejores fuentes de informaci��n para conocer la pr��ctica argumentativa de la deliberaci��n democr��tica. En este trabajo se analiza uno de los vicios que, seg��n el historiador, har��a su aparici��n en la escena pol��tica ateniense a la muerte de Pericles: la instrumentalizaci��n del miedo para obtener la victoria moment��nea en la asamblea. El temor prudente, que fuera una arma periclea para conducir la deliberaci��n racional en aras del bien com��n, habr��a desaparecido siendo sustituido por el amedrentamiento del rival, la calumnia, el obstruccionismo y la par��lisis de la confrontaci��n dial��ctica. Instauradas en la ciudad la desconfianza y la sospecha de ocultaci��n, los golpistas del 411 hallaron el terreno abonado para callar las voces contrarias y, gracias al silencio, instaurar el terror.

La Ciberseguridad como factor cr��tico en la Seguridad de la Uni��n Europea

El ciberespacio es un escenario de conflicto altamente complejo al estar en constante evoluci��n. Ni la Uni��n Europea ni ning��n otro actor del sistema internacional se encuentra a salvo de las amenazas procedentes del ciberespacio. Pero los pasos dados desde la UE en el mundo de la ciberseguridad no son en absoluto suficientes. Europa necesita que su Estrategia de ciberseguridad sea realmente capaz de integrar a las diferentes Estrategias nacionales. Es urgente una mayor determinaci��n, unos mayores recursos y unos mejores instrumentos que permitan a la Uni��n implementar una gesti��n de crisis y una prevenci��n de ciberconflictos verdaderamente eficaz.

Os movimentos migrat��rios para a Europa : Implica����es para a Seguran��a Nacional

Os recentes movimentos migrat��rios para a Europa decorrentes da atual crise de refugiados �� dos temas mais debatidos na atualidade. A instabilidade em pa��ses de ��frica e do M��dio Oriente, associada a Estados fr��geis, cujas institui����es deixaram de exercer o efetivo controlo, desenvolvendo-se sob a forma de conflitos armados, muitas vezes fundamentados em radicalismos de natureza ��tnica, religiosa e ideol��gica, est��o na base das principais causas que provocaram os recentes movimentos migrat��rios descontrolados e sem precedentes. Estes massivos fluxos migrat��rios, ter��o necessariamente repercuss��es a v��rios n��veis quer sobre as popula����es deslocadas, quer sobre as comunidades de acolhimento. As migra����es atuais adquirem novos contornos, que nos levam a inserir este tema na agenda de investiga����o dos estudos de seguran��a. �� neste ��mbito que surge a investiga����o intitulada ���Os Movimentos Migrat��rios para a Europa ��� Implica����es para a Seguran��a Nacional���, que tal como o tema sugere, tem como objetivo primordial apurar quais as principais implica����es para a seguran��a de Portugal, decorrentes dos atuais movimentos migrat��rios para a Europa, acabando tamb��m por propor algumas medidas de n��vel estrat��gico e operacional que permitam minorar os impactos na seguran��a. Assim sendo, a metodologia utilizada nesta investiga����o tem por base o m��todo de investiga����o hipot��tico-dedutivo, que para a valida����o ou n��o das respetivas hip��teses formuladas, recorreu-se �� realiza����o de entrevistas a entidades que muito t��m a dizer sobre esta tem��tica. Conclui-se com a presente investiga����o que, apesar de Portugal, n��o fazer parte dos principais destinos desta recente vaga de imigrantes, e de as consequ��ncias destes massivos movimentos migrat��rios n��o serem f��ceis de prever a m��dio e longo prazo, o nosso pa��s, como parte integrante da UE e signat��rio do acordo de Schengen, depara-se com um conjunto de amea��as de natureza global, que podendo ser potenciadas por este fen��meno, tamb��m podem colocar em causa a nossa seguran��a.

Political Strategy, Leadership, and Policy Entrepreneurship in Japanese Defense Policy and Politics: A Comparison of Three Prime Ministerships

Since the end of the Cold War, Japan���s defense policy and politics has gone through significant changes. Throughout the post cold war period, US-Japan alliance managers, politicians with differing visions and preferences, scholars, think tanks, and the actions of foreign governments have all played significant roles in influencing these changes. Along with these actors, the Japanese prime minister has played an important, if sometimes subtle, role in the realm of defense policy and politics. Japanese prime ministers, though significantly weaker than many heads of state, nevertheless play an important role in policy by empowering different actors (bureaucratic actors, independent commissions, or civil actors), through personal diplomacy, through agenda-setting, and through symbolic acts of state. The power of the prime minister to influence policy processes, however, has frequently varied by prime minister. My dissertation investigates how different political strategies and entrepreneurial insights by the prime minister have influenced defense policy and politics since the end of the Cold War. In addition, it seeks to explain how the quality of political strategy and entrepreneurial insight employed by different prime ministers was important in the success of different approaches to defense. My dissertation employs a comparative case study approach to examine how different prime ministerial strategies have mattered in the realm of Japanese defense policy and politics. Three prime ministers have been chosen: Prime Minister Hashimoto Ryutaro (1996-1998); Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro (2001-2006); and Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio (2009-2010). These prime ministers have been chosen to provide maximum contrast on issues of policy preference, cabinet management, choice of partners, and overall strategy. As my dissertation finds, the quality of political strategy has been an important aspect of Japan���s defense transformation. Successful strategies have frequently used the knowledge and accumulated personal networks of bureaucrats, supplemented bureaucratic initiatives with top-down personal diplomacy, and used a revitalized US-Japan strategic relationship as a political resource for a stronger prime ministership. Though alternative approaches, such as those that have looked to displace the influence of bureaucrats and the US in defense policy, have been less successful, this dissertation also finds theoretical evidence that alternatives may exist.

GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels���a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat���it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

Estado Isl��mico: erosi��n de la estatalidad en Iraq y Siria y la aparici��n de una estatalidad paralela desde la proclamaci��n del Califato hasta la ca��da de Kobane

El inter��s de este estudio de caso es analizar la naturaleza del Estado Isl��mico y su impacto en la estatalidad y soberan��a de Iraq y Siria. Se estudia y explica c��mo ha sido la evoluci��n y expansi��n del Estado Isl��mico y el impacto que este proceso ha tenido sobre Iraq y Siria generando de esta manera la aparici��n de una estatalidad paralela a trav��s de la construcci��n de un aparato institucional por parte del Estado Isl��mico, lo que contribuye al desarrollo de un ���para-estado���. Siguiendo la l��nea argumentativa, finalmente se demuestra que en la evoluci��n del Estado Isl��mico se logra crear una forma primitiva de Estado, adquiriendo poco a poco niveles de estatalidad, lo que lleva a que los Estados de Iraq y Siria pierdan atributos de estatalidad y de un Estado soberano.

Retos en el cumplimiento del protocolo de Palermo. Estudio de caso: trata de personas con fines de explotaci��n sexual en Colombia

El presente estudio de caso tiene como objetivo analizar los retos frente al cumplimiento del Protocolo de Palermo, en materia de explotaci��n sexual, en el Sistema Institucional Colombiano, durante el per��odo comprendido entre los a��os 2003 y 2014. De manera preliminar se indica que dichos retos son pol��tico-jur��dicos en cuanto a la manera en la que se cumplen los tratados internacionales, las obligaciones derivadas de ellos y qui��nes tienen competencia para desarrollar los mandatos contenidos en los mismos. Igualmente existen retos institucionales y organizacionales pues Colombia carece de una estructura organizacional clara y la coordinaci��n inter-agencial es escasa en materia de trata. En este sentido, esta investigaci��n tiene un enfoque multidisciplinar, puesto que combina aspectos propios tanto del Derecho Internacional P��blico como de las Relaciones Internacionales. Para ello, se har�� un an��lisis cualitativo por medio del an��lisis de datos y de literatura acad��mica respecto a la trata de personas en Colombia, con el fin de lograr comprender con mayor precisi��n el panorama actual del pa��s respecto al flagelo.

Entre el terrorismo y el terrorismo en red, un debate a prop��sito de los lobos solitarios en Estados Unidos (2001-2014)

El inter��s de esta disertaci��n es otorgar una respuesta a la fenomenolog��a del Lobo Solitario, que se alza como amenaza frente a los Estados, y es necesaria su correcta comprensi��n para poder contrarrestar sus efectos sobre la sociedad. De esta manera, se propone un debate entre los conceptos de terrorismo expuesto por un lado por Bruce Hoffman, y por el otro por Luis de la Corte Ib����ez, quienes aportar��n herramientas de an��lisis para lograr entender la fenomenolog��a. Para terminar proponiendo la teor��a de redes, expuesta por Arquilla y Ronfeldt y Charles Perrow, como mecanismo de soluci��n a la brecha conceptual existente, definiendo a los lobos solitarios a nivel operacional como nodos sin red, y a nivel de adoctrinamiento como redes de d��bil acople.

La influencia de los objetivos del milenio del PNUD en la implementaci��n de pol��ticas publicas ambientales en Tailandia para el periodo del 2000 al 2013

La presente investigacio��n tiene como objetivo principal, explicar la influencia de los ODM del PNUD en la implementacio��n de poli��ticas pu��blicas medioambientales de Tailandia en el periodo del 2000 al 2013, basado en la teori��a de los complejos de socializacio��n y la transferencia de normas que implican un buen comportamiento medioambiental. De esta manera, demostrar que los agentes socializadores han cumplido un papel fundamental para la implementacio��n de poli��ticas pu��blicas en Tailandia en su intere��s por cumplir con sus compromisos internacionales. Esta monografi��a utilizara un me��todo cualitativo, desde el ana��lisis de las fuentes primarias y secundarias, realizando especial e��nfasis en la teori��a de complejos de socializacio��n que permita un ana��lisis descriptivo y explicativo del feno��meno.