How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Appropriate therapy for fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease: results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel (EPACT II)

Introduction Many therapeutic decisions in the management of fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease (CD) have to be taken without the benefit of strong scientific evidence. For this reason, explicit appropriateness criteria for CD fistula and stenosis treatment were developed by a multidisciplinary European expert panel in 2004 with the aim of making them easily available on the Internet and thus allowing individual case scenario evaluation; these criteria were updated in 2007. Methods Twelve international experts convened in Geneva, Switzerland in December 2007. Explicit clinical scenarios, corresponding to real daily practice, were rated on a 9-point scale based on evidence from the published literature and panelists' own expertise. Median ratings were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6) and inappropriate (1-3). Results Overall, panelists rated 60 indications pertaining to fistulas. Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for simple and complex fistulas. In the event of previous failure of azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate and infliximab were considered appropriate for complex fistulas. The panel also rated 72 indications related to the management of fibrostenotic CD. The experts considered balloon dilation, if the stricture was endoscopically accessible, stricturoplasty and bowel resection to be appropriate for small bowel fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, and balloon dilation and bowel resection appropriate for fibrostenotic colonic disease. In the presence of an ileocolonic or ileorectal anastomotic stricture of <7 cm, endoscopic balloon dilation, and bowel resection were considered appropriate. Conclusion Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine, and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for fistulizing Crohn's disease. Infliximab is a therapeutic option in patients without prior response to immunosuppressant therapy. In fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, endoscopic balloon dilation, if feasible, or surgical therapy should be considered. These expert recommendations are available online (www.epact.ch). Prospective evaluation is now needed to test the validity of these appropriateness criteria in clinical practice.

Optimal robust estimates using the Hellinger distance

Optimal robust M-estimates of a multidimensional parameter are described using Hampel's infinitesimal approach. The optimal estimates are derived by minimizing a measure of efficiency under the model, subject to a bounded measure of infinitesimal robustness. To this purpose we define measures of efficiency and infinitesimal sensitivity based on the Hellinger distance.We show that these two measures coincide with similar ones defined by Yohai using the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and therefore the corresponding optimal estimates coincide too.We also give an example where we fit a negative binomial distribution to a real dataset of "days of stay in hospital" using the optimal robust estimates.

Robust synchronization of coupled circadian and cell cycle oscillators in single mammalian cells.

Circadian cycles and cell cycles are two fundamental periodic processes with a period in the range of 1 day. Consequently, coupling between such cycles can lead to synchronization. Here, we estimated the mutual interactions between the two oscillators by time-lapse imaging of single mammalian NIH3T3 fibroblasts during several days. The analysis of thousands of circadian cycles in dividing cells clearly indicated that both oscillators tick in a 1:1 mode-locked state, with cell divisions occurring tightly 5 h before the peak in circadian Rev-Erbα-YFP reporter expression. In principle, such synchrony may be caused by either unidirectional or bidirectional coupling. While gating of cell division by the circadian cycle has been most studied, our data combined with stochastic modeling unambiguously show that the reverse coupling is predominant in NIH3T3 cells. Moreover, temperature, genetic, and pharmacological perturbations showed that the two interacting cellular oscillators adopt a synchronized state that is highly robust over a wide range of parameters. These findings have implications for circadian function in proliferative tissues, including epidermis, immune cells, and cancer.

Robust fault detection using consistency techniques for uncertainty handling

Often practical performance of analytical redundancy for fault detection and diagnosis is decreased by uncertainties prevailing not only in the system model, but also in the measurements. In this paper, the problem of fault detection is stated as a constraint satisfaction problem over continuous domains with a big number of variables and constraints. This problem can be solved using modal interval analysis and consistency techniques. Consistency techniques are then shown to be particularly efficient to check the consistency of the analytical redundancy relations (ARRs), dealing with uncertain measurements and parameters. Through the work presented in this paper, it can be observed that consistency techniques can be used to increase the performance of a robust fault detection tool, which is based on interval arithmetic. The proposed method is illustrated using a nonlinear dynamic model of a hydraulic system

Developing methodologies to allow the robust prediction dynamic context dominated by perturbations

El principal objectiu del projecte era desenvolupar millores conceptuals i metodològiques que permetessin una millor predicció dels canvis en la distribució de les espècies (a una escala de paisatge) derivats de canvis ambientals en un context dominat per pertorbacions. En un primer estudi, vàrem comparar l'eficàcia de diferents models dinàmics per a predir la distribució de l'hortolà (Emberiza hortulana). Els nostres resultats indiquen que un model híbrid que combini canvis en la qualitat de l'hàbitat, derivats de canvis en el paisatge, amb un model poblacional espacialment explícit és una aproximació adequada per abordar canvis en la distribució d'espècies en contextos de dinàmica ambiental elevada i una capacitat de dispersió limitada de l'espècie objectiu. En un segon estudi abordarem la calibració mitjançant dades de seguiment de models de distribució dinàmics per a 12 espècies amb preferència per hàbitats oberts. Entre les conclusions extretes destaquem: (1) la necessitat de que les dades de seguiment abarquin aquelles àrees on es produeixen els canvis de qualitat; (2) el biaix que es produeix en la estimació dels paràmetres del model d'ocupació quan la hipòtesi de canvi de paisatge o el model de qualitat d'hàbitat són incorrectes. En el darrer treball estudiarem el possible impacte en 67 espècies d’ocells de diferents règims d’incendis, definits a partir de combinacions de nivells de canvi climàtic (portant a un augment esperat de la mida i freqüència d’incendis forestals), i eficiència d’extinció per part dels bombers. Segons els resultats dels nostres models, la combinació de factors antropogènics del regim d’incendis, tals com l’abandonament rural i l’extinció, poden ser més determinants per als canvis de distribució que els efectes derivats del canvi climàtic. Els productes generats inclouen tres publicacions científiques, una pàgina web amb resultats del projecte i una llibreria per a l'entorn estadístic R.

Towards robust network based complex systems : from evolutionary cellular automata to biological models

Abstract Sitting between your past and your future doesn't mean you are in the present. Dakota Skye Complex systems science is an interdisciplinary field grouping under the same umbrella dynamical phenomena from social, natural or mathematical sciences. The emergence of a higher order organization or behavior, transcending that expected of the linear addition of the parts, is a key factor shared by all these systems. Most complex systems can be modeled as networks that represent the interactions amongst the system's components. In addition to the actual nature of the part's interactions, the intrinsic topological structure of underlying network is believed to play a crucial role in the remarkable emergent behaviors exhibited by the systems. Moreover, the topology is also a key a factor to explain the extraordinary flexibility and resilience to perturbations when applied to transmission and diffusion phenomena. In this work, we study the effect of different network structures on the performance and on the fault tolerance of systems in two different contexts. In the first part, we study cellular automata, which are a simple paradigm for distributed computation. Cellular automata are made of basic Boolean computational units, the cells; relying on simple rules and information from- the surrounding cells to perform a global task. The limited visibility of the cells can be modeled as a network, where interactions amongst cells are governed by an underlying structure, usually a regular one. In order to increase the performance of cellular automata, we chose to change its topology. We applied computational principles inspired by Darwinian evolution, called evolutionary algorithms, to alter the system's topological structure starting from either a regular or a random one. The outcome is remarkable, as the resulting topologies find themselves sharing properties of both regular and random network, and display similitudes Watts-Strogtz's small-world network found in social systems. Moreover, the performance and tolerance to probabilistic faults of our small-world like cellular automata surpasses that of regular ones. In the second part, we use the context of biological genetic regulatory networks and, in particular, Kauffman's random Boolean networks model. In some ways, this model is close to cellular automata, although is not expected to perform any task. Instead, it simulates the time-evolution of genetic regulation within living organisms under strict conditions. The original model, though very attractive by it's simplicity, suffered from important shortcomings unveiled by the recent advances in genetics and biology. We propose to use these new discoveries to improve the original model. Firstly, we have used artificial topologies believed to be closer to that of gene regulatory networks. We have also studied actual biological organisms, and used parts of their genetic regulatory networks in our models. Secondly, we have addressed the improbable full synchronicity of the event taking place on. Boolean networks and proposed a more biologically plausible cascading scheme. Finally, we tackled the actual Boolean functions of the model, i.e. the specifics of how genes activate according to the activity of upstream genes, and presented a new update function that takes into account the actual promoting and repressing effects of one gene on another. Our improved models demonstrate the expected, biologically sound, behavior of previous GRN model, yet with superior resistance to perturbations. We believe they are one step closer to the biological reality.

Appropriate management of special situations in Crohn's disease (upper gastro-intestinal; extra-intestinal manifestations; drug safety during pregnancy and breastfeeding): results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel-EPACT II

Introduction: High-grade evidence is lacking for most therapeutic decisions in Crohn's disease. Appropriateness criteria were developed for upper gastro-intestinal, extra-intestinal manifestations and drug safety during conception, pregnancy and breastfeeding in patients with Crohn's disease, to assist the physician in clinical decision making. Methods: The European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's Disease Therapy (EPACT II), a multidisciplinary international European expert panel, rated clinical scenarios based on evidence from the published literature and panelists' own clinical expertise. Median ratings (on a 9-point scale) were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6 with or without disagreement) and inappropriate (1-3). Experts were also asked to rank appropriate medications by priority. Results: Proton pump inhibitors, steroids, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and infliximab are appropriate for upper gastro-duodenal Crohn's disease; for stenosis, endoscopic balloon dilation is the first-tine therapy, although surgery is also appropriate. Ursodeoxycholic acid is the only appropriate treatment for primary sclerosing cholangitis. Infliximab is appropriate for Pyoderma gangrenosum, ankylosing spondylitis and uveitis, steroids for Pyoderma gangrenosum and ankylosing spondylitis, adalimumab for Pyoderma gangrenosum and ankylosing spondylitis, cyclosporine-A/tacrolimus for Pyoderma gangrenosum. Mesalamine, sulfasalazine, prednisone, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine, ciprofloxacin, and probiotics, may be administered safety during pregnancy or for patients wishing to conceive, with the exception that mate patients considering conception should avoid sulfasalazine. Metronidazol is considered safe in the 2nd and 3rd trimesters whereas infliximab is rated safe in the 1st trimester but uncertain in the 2nd and 3rd trimesters. Methotrexate is always contraindicated at conception, during pregnancy or during breastfeeding, due to its known teratogenicity. Mesalamine, prednisone, probiotics and infliximab are considered safe during breastfeeding. Conclusion: EPACT II recommendations are freely available online (www.epact.ch). The validity of these criteria should now be tested by prospective evaluation. (C) 2009 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Problematizing the multidisciplinary residency in oncology: a practical teaching protocol from the perspective of nurse residents

Objective: To investigate practical teaching of nurse residents in a multidisciplinary residency in oncology. Method: A qualitative descriptive study grounded in the problematization methodology and its steps, represented by the Maguerez Arch. Data were analyzed using content analysis. Results: Potentiating and limiting elements of the residency guided the design of a practical teaching protocol from the perspective of residents, structured in three stages: Welcoming and ambience; Nursing care for problem situations; and, Evaluation process. Conclusion: Systematization of practical teaching promoted the autonomy of individuals and the approximation of teaching to reality, making residency less strenuous, stressful and distressing.



Virus-like particles induce robust human T-helper cell responses.

Among synthetic vaccines, virus-like particles (VLPs) are used for their ability to induce strong humoral responses. Very little is reported on VLP-based-vaccine-induced CD4(+) T-cell responses, despite the requirement of helper T cells for antibody isotype switching. Further knowledge on helper T cells is also needed for optimization of CD8(+) T-cell vaccination. Here, we analysed human CD4(+) T-cell responses to vaccination with MelQbG10, which is a Qβ-VLP covalently linked to a long peptide derived from the melanoma self-antigen Melan-A. In all analysed patients, we found strong antibody responses of mainly IgG1 and IgG3 isotypes, and concomitant Th1-biased CD4(+) T-cell responses specific for Qβ. Although less strong, comparable B- and CD4(+) T-cell responses were also found specific for the Melan-A cargo peptide. Further optimization is required to shift the response more towards the cargo peptide. Nevertheless, the data demonstrate the high potential of VLPs for inducing humoral and cellular immune responses by mounting powerful CD4(+) T-cell help.

Toward a Statistically Robust Assessment of Social and Solidarity Economy Actors. Conceptual Development and Empirical Validation

Many definitions and debates exist about the core characteristics of social and solidarity economy (SSE) and its actors. Among others, legal forms, profit, geographical scope, and size as criteria for identifying SSE actors often reveal dissents among SSE scholars. Instead of using a dichotomous, either-in-or-out definition of SSE actors, this paper presents an assessment tool that takes into account multiple dimensions to offer a more comprehensive and nuanced view of the field. We first define the core dimensions of the assessment tool by synthesizing the multiple indicators found in the literature. We then empirically test these dimensions and their interrelatedness and seek to identify potential clusters of actors. Finally we discuss the practical implications of our model.

Asymptotic robust inferences in the analysis of mean and covariance structures

Structural equation models are widely used in economic, socialand behavioral studies to analyze linear interrelationships amongvariables, some of which may be unobservable or subject to measurementerror. Alternative estimation methods that exploit different distributionalassumptions are now available. The present paper deals with issues ofasymptotic statistical inferences, such as the evaluation of standarderrors of estimates and chi--square goodness--of--fit statistics,in the general context of mean and covariance structures. The emphasisis on drawing correct statistical inferences regardless of thedistribution of the data and the method of estimation employed. A(distribution--free) consistent estimate of $\Gamma$, the matrix ofasymptotic variances of the vector of sample second--order moments,will be used to compute robust standard errors and a robust chi--squaregoodness--of--fit squares. Simple modifications of the usual estimateof $\Gamma$ will also permit correct inferences in the case of multi--stage complex samples. We will also discuss the conditions under which,regardless of the distribution of the data, one can rely on the usual(non--robust) inferential statistics. Finally, a multivariate regressionmodel with errors--in--variables will be used to illustrate, by meansof simulated data, various theoretical aspects of the paper.

Robust response transformations based on optimal prediction

Nonlinear regression problems can often be reduced to linearity by transforming the response variable (e.g., using the Box-Cox family of transformations). The classic estimates of the parameter defining the transformation as well as of the regression coefficients are based on the maximum likelihood criterion, assuming homoscedastic normal errors for the transformed response. These estimates are nonrobust in the presence of outliers and can be inconsistent when the errors are nonnormal or heteroscedastic. This article proposes new robust estimates that are consistent and asymptotically normal for any unimodal and homoscedastic error distribution. For this purpose, a robust version of conditional expectation is introduced for which the prediction mean squared error is replaced with an M scale. This concept is then used to develop a nonparametric criterion to estimate the transformation parameter as well as the regression coefficients. A finite sample estimate of this criterion based on a robust version of smearing is also proposed. Monte Carlo experiments show that the new estimates compare favorably with respect to the available competitors.

Robust T1-Weighted Structural Brain Imaging and Morphometry at 7T Using MP2RAGE.

PURPOSE: To suppress the noise, by sacrificing some of the signal homogeneity for numerical stability, in uniform T1 weighted (T1w) images obtained with the magnetization prepared 2 rapid gradient echoes sequence (MP2RAGE) and to compare the clinical utility of these robust T1w images against the uniform T1w images. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 8 healthy subjects (29.0±4.1 years; 6 Male), who provided written consent, underwent two scan sessions within a 24 hour period on a 7T head-only scanner. The uniform and robust T1w image volumes were calculated inline on the scanner. Two experienced radiologists qualitatively rated the images for: general image quality; 7T specific artefacts; and, local structure definition. Voxel-based and volume-based morphometry packages were used to compare the segmentation quality between the uniform and robust images. Statistical differences were evaluated by using a positive sided Wilcoxon rank test. RESULTS: The robust image suppresses background noise inside and outside the skull. The inhomogeneity introduced was ranked as mild. The robust image was significantly ranked higher than the uniform image for both observers (observer 1/2, p-value = 0.0006/0.0004). In particular, an improved delineation of the pituitary gland, cerebellar lobes was observed in the robust versus uniform T1w image. The reproducibility of the segmentation results between repeat scans improved (p-value = 0.0004) from an average volumetric difference across structures of ≈6.6% to ≈2.4% for the uniform image and robust T1w image respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The robust T1w image enables MP2RAGE to produce, clinically familiar T1w images, in addition to T1 maps, which can be readily used in uniform morphometry packages.