Identifying wind power ramp causes from multivariate datasets: a methodological proposal and its application to reanalysis data.

Forecasting abrupt variations in wind power generation (the so-called ramps) helps achieve large scale wind power integration. One of the main issues to be confronted when addressing wind power ramp forecasting is the way in which relevant information is identified from large datasets to optimally feed forecasting models. To this end, an innovative methodology oriented to systematically relate multivariate datasets to ramp events is presented. The methodology comprises two stages: the identification of relevant features in the data and the assessment of the dependence between these features and ramp occurrence. As a test case, the proposed methodology was employed to explore the relationships between atmospheric dynamics at the global/synoptic scales and ramp events experienced in two wind farms located in Spain. The achieved results suggested different connection degrees between these atmospheric scales and ramp occurrence. For one of the wind farms, it was found that ramp events could be partly explained from regional circulations and zonal pressure gradients. To perform a comprehensive analysis of ramp underlying causes, the proposed methodology could be applied to datasets related to other stages of the wind-topower conversion chain.

Classi cation of new electricity customers based on surveys and smart metering data

This paper proposes a process for the classifi cation of new residential electricity customers. The current state of the art is extended by using a combination of smart metering and survey data and by using model-based feature selection for the classifi cation task. Firstly, the normalized representative consumption profi les of the population are derived through the clustering of data from households. Secondly, new customers are classifi ed using survey data and a limited amount of smart metering data. Thirdly, regression analysis and model-based feature selection results explain the importance of the variables and which are the drivers of diff erent consumption profi les, enabling the extraction of appropriate models. The results of a case study show that the use of survey data signi ficantly increases accuracy of the classifi cation task (up to 20%). Considering four consumption groups, more than half of the customers are correctly classifi ed with only one week of metering data, with more weeks the accuracy is signifi cantly improved. The use of model-based feature selection resulted in the use of a signifi cantly lower number of features allowing an easy interpretation of the derived models.

Investigation of MEMS inertial sensors and aircraft dynamic models in global positioning system integrity monitoring for approaches with vertical guidance

An Approach with Vertical Guidance (APV) is an instrument approach procedure which provides horizontal and vertical guidance to a pilot on approach to landing in reduced visibility conditions. APV approaches can greatly reduce the safety risk to general aviation by improving the pilot’s situational awareness. In particular the incidence of Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) which has occurred in a number of fatal air crashes in general aviation over the past decade in Australia, can be reduced. APV approaches can also improve general aviation operations. If implemented at Australian airports, APV approach procedures are expected to bring a cost saving of millions of dollars to the economy due to fewer missed approaches, diversions and an increased safety benefit. The provision of accurate horizontal and vertical guidance is achievable using the Global Positioning System (GPS). Because aviation is a safety of life application, an aviation-certified GPS receiver must have integrity monitoring or augmentation to ensure that its navigation solution can be trusted. However, the difficulty with the current GPS satellite constellation alone meeting APV integrity requirements, the susceptibility of GPS to jamming or interference and the potential shortcomings of proposed augmentation solutions for Australia such as the Ground-based Regional Augmentation System (GRAS) justifies the investigation of Aircraft Based Augmentation Systems (ABAS) as an alternative integrity solution for general aviation. ABAS augments GPS with other sensors at the aircraft to help it meet the integrity requirements. Typical ABAS designs assume high quality inertial sensors to provide an accurate reference trajectory for Kalman filters. Unfortunately high-quality inertial sensors are too expensive for general aviation. In contrast to these approaches the purpose of this research is to investigate fusing GPS with lower-cost Micro-Electro-Mechanical System (MEMS) Inertial Measurement Units (IMU) and a mathematical model of aircraft dynamics, referred to as an Aircraft Dynamic Model (ADM) in this thesis. Using a model of aircraft dynamics in navigation systems has been studied before in the available literature and shown to be useful particularly for aiding inertial coasting or attitude determination. In contrast to these applications, this thesis investigates its use in ABAS. This thesis presents an ABAS architecture concept which makes use of a MEMS IMU and ADM, named the General Aviation GPS Integrity System (GAGIS) for convenience. GAGIS includes a GPS, MEMS IMU, ADM, a bank of Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) and uses the Normalized Solution Separation (NSS) method for fault detection. The GPS, IMU and ADM information is fused together in a tightly-coupled configuration, with frequent GPS updates applied to correct the IMU and ADM. The use of both IMU and ADM allows for a number of different possible configurations. Three are investigated in this thesis; a GPS-IMU EKF, a GPS-ADM EKF and a GPS-IMU-ADM EKF. The integrity monitoring performance of the GPS-IMU EKF, GPS-ADM EKF and GPS-IMU-ADM EKF architectures are compared against each other and against a stand-alone GPS architecture in a series of computer simulation tests of an APV approach. Typical GPS, IMU, ADM and environmental errors are simulated. The simulation results show the GPS integrity monitoring performance achievable by augmenting GPS with an ADM and low-cost IMU for a general aviation aircraft on an APV approach. A contribution to research is made in determining whether a low-cost IMU or ADM can provide improved integrity monitoring performance over stand-alone GPS. It is found that a reduction of approximately 50% in protection levels is possible using the GPS-IMU EKF or GPS-ADM EKF as well as faster detection of a slowly growing ramp fault on a GPS pseudorange measurement. A second contribution is made in determining how augmenting GPS with an ADM compares to using a low-cost IMU. By comparing the results for the GPS-ADM EKF against the GPS-IMU EKF it is found that protection levels for the GPS-ADM EKF were only approximately 2% higher. This indicates that the GPS-ADM EKF may potentially replace the GPS-IMU EKF for integrity monitoring should the IMU ever fail. In this way the ADM may contribute to the navigation system robustness and redundancy. To investigate this further, a third contribution is made in determining whether or not the ADM can function as an IMU replacement to improve navigation system redundancy by investigating the case of three IMU accelerometers failing. It is found that the failed IMU measurements may be supplemented by the ADM and adequate integrity monitoring performance achieved. Besides treating the IMU and ADM separately as in the GPS-IMU EKF and GPS-ADM EKF, a fourth contribution is made in investigating the possibility of fusing the IMU and ADM information together to achieve greater performance than either alone. This is investigated using the GPS-IMU-ADM EKF. It is found that the GPS-IMU-ADM EKF can achieve protection levels approximately 3% lower in the horizontal and 6% lower in the vertical than a GPS-IMU EKF. However this small improvement may not justify the complexity of fusing the IMU with an ADM in practical systems. Affordable ABAS in general aviation may enhance existing GPS-only fault detection solutions or help overcome any outages in augmentation systems such as the Ground-based Regional Augmentation System (GRAS). Countries such as Australia which currently do not have an augmentation solution for general aviation could especially benefit from the economic savings and safety benefits of satellite navigation-based APV approaches.

GPS fault detection with IMU and aircraft dynamics

Approaches with Vertical Guidance (APV) can provide greater safety and cost savings to general aviation through accurate GPS horizontal and vertical navigation. However, GPS needs augmentation to achieve APV fault detection requirements. Aircraft Based Augmentation Systems (ABAS) fuse GPS with additional sensors at the aircraft. Typical ABAS designs assume high-quality inertial sensors with Kalman filters but these are too expensive for general aviation. Instead of using high-quality (and expensive) sensors, the purpose of this paper is to investigate augmenting GPS with a low-quality MEMS IMU and Aircraft Dynamic Model (ADM). The IMU and ADM are fused together using a multiple model fusion strategy in a bank of Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) with the Normalized Solution Separation (NSS) fault detection scheme. A tightly-coupled configuration with GPS is used and frequent GPS updates are applied to the IMU and ADM to compensate for their errors. Based upon a simulated APV approach, the performance of this architecture in detecting a GPS ramp fault is investigated showing a performance improvement over a GPS-only “snapshot” implementation of the NSS method. The effect of fusing the IMU with the ADM is evaluated by comparing a GPS-IMU-ADM EKF with a GPS-IMU EKF where a small improvement in protection levels is shown.

Astrophysics on the lab bench

In this article some basic laboratory bench experiments are described that are useful for teaching high school students some of the basic principles of stellar astrophysics. For example, in one experiment, students slam a plastic water-filled bottle down onto a bench, ejecting water towards the ceiling illustrating the physics associated with a type II supernova explosion. In another experiment, students roll marbles up and down a double ramp in an attempt to get a marble to enter a tube half way up the slope, which illustrates quantum tunnelling in stellar cores. The experiments are reasonably low cost to either purchase or manufacture.

AFM study of forces between silicon oil and hydrophobic - hydrophylic surfaces in aqueous solutions

An investigation has been made of the interactions between silicone oil and various solid substrates immersed in aqueous solutions. Measurements were made using an atomic force microscope (AFM) using the colloid-probe method. The silicone oil drop is simulated by coating a small silica sphere with the oil, and measuring the force as this coated sphere is brought close to contact with a flat solid surface. It is found that the silicone oil surface is negatively charged, which causes a double-layer repulsion between the oil drop and another negatively charged surface such as mica. With hydrophilic solids, this repulsion is strong enough to prevent attachment of the drop to the solid. However, with hydrophobic surfaces there is an additional attractive force which overcomes the double-layer repulsion, and the silicone oil drop attaches to the solid. A "ramp" force appears in some, but not all, of the data sets. There is circumstantial evidence that this force results from compression of the silicone oil film coated on the glass sphere.

The relationship of boat movements to environmental management at some Queensland marinas

Marinas currently exist primarily to service recreational boats, and these vessels are a potential cause of both problems and opportunities in environmental management. Thus, on the one hand, destructive fuel and other pollutants may be expelled, boat wakes can cause littoral soil erosion, physical damage results from collisions with marine life, and litter and noise pollution occur in otherwise pristine habitat. Boats also provide access to otherwise inaccessible natural environments for educational and other management reasons. In this study, boat traffic at three large marinas located along the Queensland coastline has been field surveyed for introductory information. No attempt was made at this juncture to survey the behaviour of the boat crews and passengers (concerning actual destinations, activities on board, etc. or to survey the recreational boat industry. Such studies rely on boat registration records and personal questionnaires. Some other surveys relating to fishing draw on boat ramp surveys and direct submissions by recreational fishers; these provide some data on daily usage of boat ramps, but without particular attention to boats. We believe field observations of overall boat activities in the water are necessary for environmental management purposes. The aim of the survey was to provide information to help prioritize the potential impacts that boats’ activities have on the surrounding natural environment. Any impact by boats will be a product of their numbers, size, frequency of movement, carrying capacity and routes/destinations. The severity of impacts will dictate the appropriate management action.

AITPM national newsletter president's report April 2010

Well, it has been Clem 7 month here in Brisbane and my impression is “so far, so good!” For those of you who know Brisbane, the four lane twin Clem Jones Tunnel (M7) is approximately 4.5km long, and connects Ipswich Road (A7) at the Princess Alexandra Hospital on the south side with Bowen Bridge Road (A3) at the Royal Brisbane Hospital on the north side. There are also south access ramps to the Pacific Motorway and east access ramps to Shafston Avenue (headed to/from Wynnum). Brisbanites have been enjoying a three week no-toll taste test, and I paced through it one evening with minimal fuss. The tunnel seems to have eased the congestion at the Stanley Street on-ramp to the Pacific Motorway quite a bit, and Ipswich Road – Main Street through the ‘Gabba. One must watch the signage carefully, but once we get used to the infrastructure, this will not likely be problematic. It will be interesting to see how traffic behaves when the system settles after tolling, which has likely commenced by the time you’re reading. I believe a passenger car toll is about $4.20 one way but saves about 24 signalised intersection pass-throughs.

The effects of ambulance ramping on Emergency Department length of stay and mortality

Background: Ambulance ramping within the Emergency Department (ED) is a common problem both internationally and in Australia. Previous research has focused on various issues associated with ambulance ramping such as access block, ED overcrowding and ambulance bypass. However, limited research has been conducted on ambulance ramping and its effects on patient outcomes. ----- ----- Methods: A case-control design was used to describe, compare and predict patient outcomes of 619 ramped (cases) vs. 1238 non-ramped (control) patients arriving to one ED via ambulance from 1 June 2007 to 31 August 2007. Cases and controls were matched (on a 1:2 basis) on age, gender and presenting problem. Outcome measures included ED length of stay and in-hospital mortality. ----- ----- Results: The median ramp time for all 1857 patients was 11 (IQR 6—21) min. Compared to nonramped patients, ramped patients had significantly longer wait time to be triaged (10 min vs. 4 min). Ramped patients also comprised significantly higher proportions of those access blocked (43% vs. 34%). No significant difference in the proportion of in-hospital deaths was identified (2%vs. 3%). Multivariate analysis revealed that the likelihood of having an ED length of stay greater than eight hours was 34% higher among patients who were ramped (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.06—1.70, p = 0.014). In relation to in-hospital mortality age was the only significant independent predictor of mortality (p < 0.0001). ----- ----- Conclusion: Ambulance ramping is one factor that contributes to prolonged ED length of stay and adds additional strain on ED service provision. The potential for adverse patient outcomes that may occur as a result of ramping warrants close attention by health care service providers.

Scaling of free convection heat transfer in a triangular cavity for Pr>1

Unsteady natural convection inside a triangular cavity subject to a non-instantaneous heating on the inclined walls in the form of an imposed temperature which increases linearly up to a prescribed steady value over a prescribed time is reported. The development of the flow from start-up to a steady-state has been described based on scaling analyses and direct numerical simulations. The ramp temperature has been chosen in such a way that the boundary layer is reached a quasi-steady mode before the growth of the temperature is completed. In this mode the thermal boundary layer at first grows in thickness, then contracts with increasing time. However, if the imposed wall temperature growth period is sufficiently short, the boundary layer develops differently. It is seen that the shape of many houses are isosceles triangular cross-section. The heat transfer process through the roof of the attic-shaped space should be well understood. Because, in the building energy, one of the most important objectives for design and construction of houses is to provide thermal comfort for occupants. Moreover, in the present energy-conscious society it is also a requirement for houses to be energy efficient, i.e. the energy consumption for heating or air-conditioning houses must be minimized.

Conversation, community and kids: blogging for youth at Gold Coast City Council libraries

In late 2007, Gold Coast City Council libraries embarked on an online library project, designed to ramp up libraries’ online services to customers. As part of this project, the Young People’s team identified a need to connect with youth aged 12 to 16 in the online environment, in order to create a direct channel of communication with this market segment and encourage them to engage with the library. Blogging was identified as an appropriate means of communicating with both current and potential library customers from this age group. The Young People’s team consequently prepared a concept plan for a youth blog for launch in Children’s Book Week 2008 and are working towards development of management and administrative models and documentation and implementation of the blog itself. While many libraries have been quick to take up Web 2.0-style services, there has been little formal publication about the successes (or failures) of this type of project. Likewise, few libraries have published about the planning, management, and administration of such services. The youth blog currently in development at Gold Coast City Council libraries will be supported by a robust planning phase and will be rigorously evaluated as part of the project. This paper will report on the project (its aims, objectives and outputs), the planning process, and the evaluation activities and outcomes.

Scaling analysis of natural convection boundary layers : Application to attic space

The natural convection thermal boundary layer adjacent to an inclined flat plate and inclined walls of an attic space subject to instantaneous and ramp heating and cooling is investigated. A scaling analysis has been performed to describe the flow behaviour and heat transfer. Major scales quantifying the flow velocity, flow development time, heat transfer and the thermal and viscous boundary layer thicknesses at different stages of the flow development are established. Scaling relations of heating-up and cooling-down times and heat transfer rates have also been reported for the case of attic space. The scaling relations have been verified by numerical simulations over a wide range of parameters. Further, a periodic temperature boundary condition is also considered to show the flow features in the attic space over diurnal cycles.

Natural convection in the attic-shaped spaces

Heat transfer through an attic space into or out of buildings is an important issue for attic-shaped houses in both hot and cold climates. One of the important objectives for design and construction of houses is to provide thermal comfort for occupants. In the present energy-conscious society, it is also a requirement for houses to be energy efficient, i.e. the energy consumption for heating or air-conditioning houses must be minimized. Relevant to these objectives, research into heat transfer in attics has been conducted for about three decades. The transient behaviour of an attic space is directly relevant to our daily life. Certain periods of the day or night may be considered as having a constant ambient temperature (e.g. during 11am - 2pm or 11pm - 2am). However, at other times during the day or night the ambient temperature changes with time (e.g. between 5am - 9am or 5pm - 9pm). Therefore, the analysis of steady state solution is not sufficient to describe the fluid flow and heat transfer in the attic space. The discussion of the transient development of the boundary is required. A theoretical understanding of the transient behaviour of the flow in the enclosure is performed through scaling analysis for sudden and ramp heating conditions. A proper identification of the timescales, the velocity and the thickness relevant to the flow that develops inside the cavity makes it possible to predict theoretically the basic flow features that will survive once the thermal flow in the enclosure reaches a steady state. Those scaling predictions have been verified by a series of numerical simulations.

Influence of inflow turbulence in shock-wave/turbulent-boundary-layer interaction computations

The influence of inflow turbulence on the results of Favre–Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes computations of supersonic oblique-shock-wave/turbulent-boundary-layer interactions (shock-wave Mach-number MSW ∼2.9), using seven-equation Reynolds-stress model turbulence closures, is studied. The generation of inflow conditions (and the initialization of the flowfield) for mean flow, Reynolds stresses, and turbulence length scale, based on semi-analytic grid-independent boundary-layer profiles, is described in detail. Particular emphasis is given to freestream turbulence intensity and length scale. The influence of external-flow turbulence intensity is studied in detail both for flat-plate boundary-layer flow and for a compression-ramp interaction with large separation. It is concluded that the Reynolds-stress model correctly reproduces the effects of external flow turbulence.

Thermo-magnetic convection of paramagnetic fluids with non-instantaneous heating

The unsteady boundary-layer development for thermomagnetic convection of paramagnetic fluids inside a square cavity has been considered in this study. The cavity is placed in a microgravity condition (no gravitation acceleration) and under a uniform magnetic field which acts vertically. A ramp temperature boundary condition is applied on left vertical side wall of the cavity where the temperature initially increases with time up to some specific time and maintain constant thereafter. A distinct magnetic convection boundary layer is developed adjacent to the left vertical wall due to the effect of the magnetic body force generated on the paramagnetic fluid. An improved scaling analysis has been performed using triple-layer integral method and verified by numerical simulations. The Prandtl number has been chosen greater than unity varied over 5-100. Moreover, the effect of various values of the magnetic parameter and magnetic Rayleigh number on the fluid flow and heat transfer has been shown.