967 resultados para Railroad safety, Bayesian methods, Accident modification factor, Countermeasure selection
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Background: Atrophy of skeletal muscle in cancer cachexia has been attributed to a tumour-produced highly glycosylated peptide called proteolysis-inducing factor (PIF). The action of PIF is mediated through a high-affinity membrane receptor in muscle. This study investigates the ability of peptides derived from the 20 N-terminal amino acids of the receptor to neutralise PIF action both in vitro and in vivo. Methods: Proteolysis-inducing factor was purified from the MAC16 tumour using an initial pronase digestion, followed by binding on DEAE cellulose, and the pronase was inactivated by heating to 80°C, before purification of the PIF using affinity chromatography. In vitro studies were carried out using C2C12 murine myotubes, while in vivo studies employed mice bearing the cachexia-inducing MAC16 tumour. Results: The process resulted in almost a 23?000-fold purification of PIF, but with a recovery of only 0.004%. Both the D- and L-forms of the 20mer peptide attenuated PIF-induced protein degradation in vitro through the ubiquitin-proteosome proteolytic pathway and increased expression of myosin. In vivo studies showed that neither the D- nor the L-peptides significantly attenuated weight loss, although the D-peptide did show a tendency to increase lean body mass. Conclusion: These results suggest that the peptides may be too hydrophilic to be used as therapeutic agents, but confirm the importance of the receptor in the action of the PIF on muscle protein degradation.
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During the 2007-2008 austral spring season, the ANDRILL (Antarctic Drilling project) Southern McMurdo Sound Project recovered an 1138-m-long core, representing the last 20 m.y. of glacial history. An extensive downhole logging program was successfully carried out. Due to drill hole conditions, logs were collected in several passes from the total depth at 1138.54 m below seafloor (mbsf) to 230 mbsf. After data correction, several statistical methods, such as factor analysis, cluster analysis, box-and-whisker diagrams, and cross-plots, were applied. The aim of these analyses was to use detailed interpretation of the downhole logs to obtain a description of the lithologies and their specific physical properties that is independent of the core descriptions. The sediments were grouped into the three main facies, diamictite, mudstone and/or siltstone, and sandstone, and the physical properties of each were determined. Notable findings include the high natural radioactivity values in sandstone and the high and low magnetic susceptibility values in mudstone and/or siltstone and in sandstone. A modified lithology cluster column was produced on the basis of the downhole logs and statistical analyses. It was possible to use the uranium content in the downhole logs to determine hiatuses and thus more accurately place the estimated hiatuses. Using analyses from current literature (geochemistry, clasts, and clay minerals) in combination with the downhole logs (cluster analysis), the depths 225 mbsf, 650 mbsf, 775 mbsf, and 900 mbsf were identified as boundaries of change in sediment composition, provenance, and/or environmental conditions. The main use of log interpretation is the exact definition of lithological boundaries and the modification of the paleoenvironmental interpretation.
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The first objective of this research was to develop closed-form and numerical probabilistic methods of analysis that can be applied to otherwise conventional methods of unreinforced and geosynthetic reinforced slopes and walls. These probabilistic methods explicitly include random variability of soil and reinforcement, spatial variability of the soil, and cross-correlation between soil input parameters on probability of failure. The quantitative impact of simultaneously considering the influence of random and/or spatial variability in soil properties in combination with cross-correlation in soil properties is investigated for the first time in the research literature. Depending on the magnitude of these statistical descriptors, margins of safety based on conventional notions of safety may be very different from margins of safety expressed in terms of probability of failure (or reliability index). The thesis work also shows that intuitive notions of margin of safety using conventional factor of safety and probability of failure can be brought into alignment when cross-correlation between soil properties is considered in a rigorous manner. The second objective of this thesis work was to develop a general closed-form solution to compute the true probability of failure (or reliability index) of a simple linear limit state function with one load term and one resistance term expressed first in general probabilistic terms and then migrated to a LRFD format for the purpose of LRFD calibration. The formulation considers contributions to probability of failure due to model type, uncertainty in bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety (OFS). Bias is defined as the ratio of measured to predicted value. Parametric analyses were carried out to show that ignoring possible correlations between random variables can lead to conservative (safe) values of resistance factor in some cases and in other cases to non-conservative (unsafe) values. Example LRFD calibrations were carried out using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip and geosynthetic reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.
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Cyber-physical systems tightly integrate physical processes and information and communication technologies. As today’s critical infrastructures, e.g., the power grid or water distribution networks, are complex cyber-physical systems, ensuring their safety and security becomes of paramount importance. Traditional safety analysis methods, such as HAZOP, are ill-suited to assess these systems. Furthermore, cybersecurity vulnerabilities are often not considered critical, because their effects on the physical processes are not fully understood. In this work, we present STPA-SafeSec, a novel analysis methodology for both safety and security. Its results show the dependencies between cybersecurity vulnerabilities and system safety. Using this information, the most effective mitigation strategies to ensure safety and security of the system can be readily identified. We apply STPA-SafeSec to a use case in the power grid domain, and highlight its benefits.
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We present results on strange and multistrange particle production in Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 62.4 GeV as measured with the STAR detector at RHIC. Midrapidity transverse momentum spectra and integrated yields of K(S)(0), Lambda, Xi, and Omega and their antiparticles are presented for different centrality classes. The particle yields and ratios follow a smooth energy dependence. Chemical freeze-out parameters, temperature, baryon chemical potential, and strangeness saturation factor obtained from the particle yields are presented. Intermediate transverse momentum (p(T)) phenomena are discussed based on the ratio of the measured baryon-to-meson spectra and nuclear modification factor. The centrality dependence of various measurements presented show a similar behavior as seen in Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV.
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The contribution of B meson decays to nonphotonic electrons, which are mainly produced by the semileptonic decays of heavy-flavor mesons, in p + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV has been measured using azimuthal correlations between nonphotonic electrons and hadrons. The extracted B decay contribution is approximately 50% at a transverse momentum of p(T) >= 5 GeV/c. These measurements constrain the nuclear modification factor for electrons from B and D meson decays. The result indicates that B meson production in heavy ion collisions is also suppressed at high p(T).
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We report on K*(0) production at midrapidity in Au + Au and Cu + Cu collisions at root s(NN) = 62.4 and 200 GeV collected by the Solenoid Tracker at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider detector. The K*(0) is reconstructed via the hadronic decays K*(0) -> K(+)pi(-) and (K*(0)) over bar -> K(+)pi(-). Transverse momentum, p(T), spectra are measured over a range of p(T) extending from 0.2 GeV/c up to 5 GeV/c. The center-of-mass energy and system size dependence of the rapidity density, dN/dy, and the average transverse momentum, < p(T)>, are presented. The measured N(K*(0))/N(K) and N(phi)/N(K*(0)) ratios favor the dominance of rescattering of decay daughters of K*(0) over the hadronic regeneration for the K*(0) production. In the intermediate p(T) region (2.0 < p(T) < 4.0 GeV/c), the elliptic flow parameter, v(2), and the nuclear modification factor, R(CP), agree with the expectations from the quark coalescence model of particle production.
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The received view of an ad hoc hypothesis is that it accounts for only the observation(s) it was designed to account for, and so non-adhocness is generally held to be necessary or important for an introduced hypothesis or modification to a theory. Attempts by Popper and several others to convincingly explicate this view, however, prove to be unsuccessful or of doubtful value, and familiar and firmer criteria for evaluating the hypotheses or modified theories so classified are characteristically available. These points are obscured largely because the received view fails to adequately separate psychology from methodology or to recognise ambiguities in the use of 'ad hoc'.
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Objective: To evaluate the impact of increasing the minimum resupply period for prescriptions on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in November 1994. The intervention was designed to reduce the stockpiling of medicines used for chronic medical conditions under the PBS safety net. Methods: Interrupted times series regression analyses were performed on 114 months of PBS drug utilisation data from January 1991 to June 2000. These analyses assessed whether there had been a significant interaction between the onset of the intervention in November 1994 and the extreme levels of drug utilisation in the months of December (peak utilisation) and January (lowest utilisation) respectively. Both serial and 12-month lag autocorrelations were controlled for. Results: The onset of the intervention was associated with a significant reduction in the December peak in drug utilisation; after the introduction of the policy there were 1,150,196 fewer proscriptions on average or that month (95% Cl 708,333-1,592,059). There was, however, no significant change in the low level of utilisation in January. The effect of the policy appears to be decreasing across successive postintervention years. though the odds of a prescription being dispensed in December remained significantly lower in 1999 compared to each of the pre-intervention years (11% vs. 14%) Conclusion: Analysis of the impact of increasing the re-supply period for PBS prescriptions showed that the magnitude of peak utilisation in December had been markedly reduced by the policy, though this effect appears to be decreasing over time. Continued monitoring and policy review is warranted in order to ensure that the initial effect of the intervention be maintained.
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The flock-level sensitivity of pooled faecal culture and serological testing using AGID for the detection of ovine Johne's disease-infected flocks were estimated using non-gold-standard methods. The two tests were compared in an extensive field trial in 296 flocks in New South Wales during 1998. In each flock, a sample of sheep was selected and tested for ovine Johne's disease using both the AGID and pooled faecal culture. The flock-specificity of pooled faecal culture also was estimated from results of surveillance and market-assurance testing in New South Wales. The overall flock-sensitivity of pooled faecal culture was 92% (95% CI: 82.4 and 97.4%) compared to 61% (50.5 and 70.9%) for serology (assuming that both tests were 100% specific). In low-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalence
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Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação
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Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação
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INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.
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The brown crab (Cancer pagurus) fishery in Ireland is one of the most important financially and socio-economically, with the species worth approximately €15m per year in the first half of the decade. Only mackerel (Scomber scombrus) and Dublin Bay prawn (Nephrops norvegicus) are of greater value. Despite this, very little research has been conducted to describe the stock structure of brown crab on a national scale. In this study a country-wide assessment of genetic population structure was carried out. Sampling was conducted from commercial fishing boats from 11/06 to 04/08 at seven sample sites representing the central Irish brown crab fisheries, with one sample site from the UK also included in the study. Six microsatellite markers, specifically developed for brown crab, were used to assess genetic diversity and estimate population differentiation parameters. Significant genetic structuring was found using F-statistics (Fst = 0.007) and exact tests, but not with Bayesian methods. Samples from the UK and Wexford were found to be genetically distinct from all other populations. Three northern populations from Malm Head and Stanton Bank were genetically similar with Fst estimates suggesting connectivity between them. Also, Stanton Bank, again on the basis of Fst estimates, appeared to be connected to populations down the west coast of Ireland, as far south as Kerry. Two Galway samples, one inside and one outside of Galway Bay, were genetically differentiated despite their close geographic proximity. It is hypothesised that a persistent northerly summer current could transport pelagic larvae from populations along the southwest and west coasts of Ireland towards Stanton Bank in the North, resulting in the apparent connectivity observed in this study.
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This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.