Ranking of Prospective New Generation Location for a Power Network in a Deregulated System

In developing countries high rate of growth in demand of electric energy is felt, and so the addition of new generating units becomes necessary. In deregulated power systems private generating stations are encouraged to add new generations. Finding the appropriate location of new generator to be installed can be obtained by running repeated power flows, carrying system studies like analyzing the voltage profile, voltage stability, loss analysis etc. In this paper a new methodology is proposed which will mainly consider the existing network topology into account. A concept of T-index is introduced in this paper, which considers the electrical distances between generator and load nodes.This index is used for ranking significant new generation expansion locations and also indicates the amount of permissible generations that can be installed at these new locations. This concept facilitates for the medium and long term planning of power generation expansions within the available transmission corridors. Studies carried out on a sample 7-bus system, EHV equivalent 24-bus system and IEEE 39 bus system are presented for illustration purpose.

Prospective relationships between physical activity and optimism in young and mid-aged women

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence that regular physical activity (PA) reduces the risk of poor mental health. Less research has focused on the relationship between PA and positive wellbeing. The study aims were to assess the prospective associations between PA and optimism, in both young and mid-aged women. METHODS: 9688 young women (born 1973-1978) completed self-report surveys in 2000 (age 22 to 27), 2003, 2006, and 2009; and 11,226 mid-aged women (born 1946-1951) completed surveys in 2001 (age 50-55) 2004, 2007, and 2010, as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Generalized estimating equation models (with 3-year time lag) were used to examine the relationship between PA and optimism in both cohorts. RESULTS: In both cohorts, women reporting higher levels of PA had greater odds of reporting higher optimism over the 9-year period, (young, OR = 5.04, 95% CI: 3.85-6.59; mid-age, OR = 5.77, 95% CI: 4.76-7.00) than women who reported no PA. Odds were attenuated in adjusted models, with depression accounting for a large amount of this attenuation (young, OR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.57-2.55; mid-age, OR = 1.64 95% CI: 1.38-1.94). CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity can promote optimism in young and mid-aged women over time, even after accounting for the negative effects of other psychosocial indicators such as depression.

Does the addition of Clonidine to lumbar nerve root blocks improve outcome? A randomised, prospective, single-blinded controlled pilot study

Purpose To evaluate if adding clonidine to a standard nerve root block containing local anaesthetic and steroid improved the outcome of patients with severe lumbar nerve root pain secondary to MRI proven lumbar disc prolapse. Methods We undertook a single blind, prospective, randomised controlled trial evaluating 100 consecutive patients with nerve root pain secondary to lumbar disc prolapse undergoing trans-foraminal epidural steroid injection either with or without the addition of clonidine. 50 patients were allocated to each arm of the study. The primary outcome measure was the avoidance of a second procedure- repeat injection or micro-discectomy surgery. Secondary outcome measures were also studied: pain scores for leg and back pain using a visual analogue scale (VAS), the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ) and the Measure Your Own Medical Outcome Profile (MYMOP). Follow up was carried out at 6 weeks, 6 months and 1 year. Results No serious complications occurred. Of the 50 patients who received the addition of clonidine, 56% were classified as successful injections, with no further intervention required, as opposed to 40% who received the standard injection. This difference did not reach statistical significance (p=0.109, chi-squared test). All secondary measures showed no statistically significant differences between the groups except curiously, the standard group who had been classified as successful had better leg pain relief than the clonidine group (p=0.026) at 1 year. Conclusions This pilot study has shown a 16% treatment effect with adding clonidine to lumbar nerve root blocks and that it is a safe injectate for this purpose.

Fatigue self-management behaviors in patients with advanced cancer: A prospective longitudinal survey

Purpose: To explore the fatigue self-management behaviors and factors associated with effectiveness of these behaviors in patients with advanced cancer. Design: Prospective longitudinal interviewer-administered survey. Setting: A tertiary cancer center in Queensland Australia. Sample: One hundred fifty two outpatients with metastatic breast, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer experiencing fatigue (>3/10) were recruited. Main Research Variables: Fatigue self-management behaviors outcomes (perceived effectiveness, self-efficacy and frequency), medical/demographic characteristics (including sites of primary cancer and metastasis, comorbidity, performance status), social support, depressive, anxiety, and other symptoms were assessed. Findings: The participants reported moderate levels of fatigue at baseline (M=5.85, SD 1.44), and maintained moderate levels at 4 weeks and 8 weeks. On average, participants consistently used approximately nine behaviors at each time point. Factors significantly associated with higher levels of perceived effectiveness of fatigue self-management behaviors were higher self-efficacy (p<.001), higher education level (p=.02), and lower levels of depressive symptoms (p=.04). Conclusions: The findings of this study demonstrate that patients with cancer, even with advanced disease, still want and are able to use a number of behaviors to control their fatigue. Self-management interventions that aim to enhance self-efficacy and address any concurrent depressive symptoms have the potential to reduce fatigue severity. Implications for Nursing: Nurses are well positioned to play a key role in supporting patients in their fatigue self-management. Knowledge Translation: This study particularly focused on the perspectives of patients about fatigue self-management, highlighting a number of issues requiring further attention in clinical practice and the potential for future research.

Predictors of violent reconvictions and mortality among impulsive alcoholic violent offenders: A prospective study

Acts of violence lays a great burden on humankind. The negative effects of violence could be relieved by accurate prediction of violent recidivism. However, prediction of violence has been considered an inexact science hampered by scare knowledge of its causes. The study at hand examines risk factors of violent reconvictions and mortality among 242 Finnish male violent offenders exhibiting severe alcoholism and severe externalizing personality disorders. The violent offenders were recruited during a court-ordered 2-month inpatient mental status examination between 1990—1998. Controls were 1210 individuals matched by sex-, age-, and place of birth. After a 9-year non-incarcerated follow-up criminal register and mortality data were obtained from national registers. Risk analyses were applied to estimate odds and relative risk for recidivism and mortality. Risk variables that were included in the analyses were antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), borderline personality disorder (BPD), a comorbidity of ASPD and BPD, childhood adversities, alcohol consumption, age, and monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) genotype. In addition to risk analyses, temperament dimensions (Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire [TPQ]) were assessed. The prevalence of recidivistic acts of violence (32%) and mortality (16%) was high among the offenders. Severe personality disorders and childhood adversities increased the risk for recidivism and mortality both among offenders (OR 2.0–10.4) and in comparison between offenders and controls (RR 4.3–53.0). Offenders having BPD and a history of childhood maltreatment emerged as a group with a particularly poor prognosis. MAOA altered the effects of alcohol consumption and ageing. Alcohol consumption (+2.3%) and age (–7.3%) showed significant effects on the risk for violent reconvictions among the high activity MAOA (MAOA-H) offenders, but not among the low activity MAOA (MAOA-L) offenders. The offenders featured temperament dimensions of high novelty seeking, high harm avoidance, and low reward dependence matching Cloninger’s definition of explosive personality. The fact that the risk for recidivistic acts of violence and mortality accumulated into clearly defined subgroups supports future efforts to provide for evidence based violence prevention and risk assessments among violent offenders.

Cardiac function before and after treatment for various types of loading conditions and in myocardial restriction : A prospective study on pediatric patients with two- and three-dimensional echocardiography and measurement of serum natriuretic peptides

Background: The incidence of all forms of congenital heart defects is 0.75%. For patients with congenital heart defects, life-expectancy has improved with new treatment modalities. Structural heart defects may require surgical or catheter treatment which may be corrective or palliative. Even those with corrective therapy need regular follow-up due to residual lesions, late sequelae, and possible complications after interventions. Aims: The aim of this thesis was to evaluate cardiac function before and after treatment for volume overload of the right ventricle (RV) caused by atrial septal defect (ASD), volume overload of the left ventricle (LV) caused by patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), and pressure overload of the LV caused by coarctation of the aorta (CoA), and to evaluate cardiac function in patients with Mulibrey nanism. Methods: In Study I, of the 24 children with ASD, 7 underwent surgical correction and 17 percutaneous occlusion of ASD. Study II had 33 patients with PDA undergoing percutaneous occlusion. In Study III, 28 patients with CoA underwent either surgical correction or percutaneous balloon dilatation of CoA. Study IV comprised 26 children with Mulibrey nanism. A total of 76 healthy voluntary children were examined as a control group. In each study, controls were matched to patients. All patients and controls underwent clinical cardiovascular examinations, two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) echocardiographic examinations, and blood sampling for measurement of natriuretic peptides prior to the intervention and twice or three times thereafter. Control children were examined once by 2D and 3D echocardiography. M-mode echocardiography was performed from the parasternal long axis view directed by 2D echocardiography. The left atrium-to-aorta (LA/Ao) ratio was calculated as an index of LA size. The end-diastolic and end-systolic dimensions of LV as well as the end-diastolic thicknesses of the interventricular septum and LV posterior wall were measured. LV volumes, and the fractional shortening (FS) and ejection fraction (EF) as indices of contractility were then calculated, and the z scores of LV dimensions determined. Diastolic function of LV was estimated from the mitral inflow signal obtained by Doppler echocardiography. In three-dimensional echocardiography, time-volume curves were used to determine end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, stroke volume, and EF. Diastolic and systolic function of LV was estimated from the calculated first derivatives of these curves. Results: (I): In all children with ASD, during the one-year follow-up, the z score of the RV end-diastolic diameter decreased and that of LV increased. However, dilatation of RV did not resolve entirely during the follow-up in either treatment group. In addition, the size of LV increased more slowly in the surgical subgroup but reached control levels in both groups. Concentrations of natriuretic peptides in patients treated percutaneously increased during the first month after ASD closure and normalized thereafter, but in patients treated surgically, they remained higher than in controls. (II): In the PDA group, at baseline, the end-diastolic diameter of LV measured over 2SD in 5 of 33 patients. The median N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (proBNP) concentration before closure measured 72 ng/l in the control group and 141 ng/l in the PDA group (P = 0.001) and 6 months after closure measured 78.5 ng/l (P = NS). Patients differed from control subjects in indices of LV diastolic and systolic function at baseline, but by the end of follow-up, all these differences had disappeared. Even in the subgroup of patients with normal-sized LV at baseline, the LV end-diastolic volume decreased significantly during follow-up. (III): Before repair, the size and wall thickness of LV were higher in patients with CoA than in controls. Systolic blood pressure measured a median 123 mm Hg in patients before repair (P < 0.001) and 103 mm Hg one year thereafter, and 101 mm Hg in controls. The diameter of the coarctation segment measured a median 3.0 mm at baseline, and 7.9 at the 12-month (P = 0.006) follow-up. Thicknesses of the interventricular septum and posterior wall of the LV decreased after repair but increased to the initial level one year thereafter. The velocity time integrals of mitral inflow increased, but no changes were evident in LV dimensions or contractility. During follow-up, serum levels of natriuretic peptides decreased correlating with diastolic and systolic indices of LV function in 2D and 3D echocardiography. (IV): In 2D echocardiography, the interventricular septum and LV posterior wall were thicker, and velocity time integrals of mitral inflow shorter in patients with Mulibrey nanism than in controls. In 3D echocardiography, LV end-diastolic volume measured a median 51.9 (range 33.3 to 73.4) ml/m² in patients and 59.7 (range 37.6 to 87.6) ml/m² in controls (P = 0.040), and serum levels of ANPN and proBNP a median 0.54 (range 0.04 to 4.7) nmol/l and 289 (range 18 to 9170) ng/l, in patients and 0.28 (range 0.09 to 0.72) nmol/l (P < 0.001) and 54 (range 26 to 139) ng/l (P < 0.001) in controls. They correlated with several indices of diastolic LV function. Conclusions (I): During the one-year follow-up after the ASD closure, RV size decreased but did not normalize in all patients. The size of the LV normalized after ASD closure but the increase in LV size was slower in patients treated surgically than in those treated with the percutaneous technique. Serum levels of ANPN and proBNP were elevated prior to ASD closure but decreased thereafter to control levels in patients treated with the percutaneous technique but not in those treated surgically. (II): Changes in LV volume and function caused by PDA disappeared by 6 months after percutaneous closure. Even the children with normal-sized LV benefited from the procedure. (III): After repair of CoA, the RV size and the velocity time integrals of mitral inflow increased, and serum levels of natriuretic peptides decreased. Patients need close follow-up, despite cessation of LV pressure overload, since LV hypertrophy persisted even in normotensive patients with normal growth of the coarctation segment. (IV): In children with Mulibrey nanism, the LV wall was hypertrophied, with myocardial restriction and impairment of LV function. Significant correlations appeared between indices of LV function, size of the left atrium, and levels of natriuretic peptides, indicating that measurement of serum levels of natriuretic peptides can be used in the clinical follow-up of this patient group despite its dependence on loading conditions.

Early life determinants of atopy : A 20-year prospective follow-up study on unselected, healthy newborns

Atopy-related allergic diseases, i.e. allergic rhinoconjunctivitis, atopic dermatitis and asthma, have increased in frequency in the industrialized countries. In order to reverse this trend, effective preventive strategies need to be developed. This requires a better understanding of the early-life events leading to the expression of the atopic phenotype. The present study has aimed at defining early-life factors and markers associated with the subsequent development of allergic diseases in a cohort of 200 healthy, unselected Finnish newborns prospectively followed up from birth to age 20 years. Their mothers were encouraged to start and maintain exclusive breastfeeding as long as it was nutritionally sufficient for the infant. Consequently, all the infants received some duration of exclusive breastfeeding, 58% of the infants were on exclusive breastfeeding for the first 6 months of life, and 18% received this feeding at least for the first 9 months. Of the infants, 42% had a family history of allergy. After the first year of follow-up, the children were re-assessed at ages 5, 11 and 20 years with clinical examination, skin prick testing, and parental and personal interviews. Exclusive breastfeeding for over 9 months was associated with atopic dermatitis and symptoms of food hypersensitivity at age 5 years, and with symptoms of food hypersensitivity at age 11 years in the children with a familial allergy. Subjects with allergic symptoms or a positive skin prick test in childhood or adolescence had lower retinol concentrations during their infancy and childhood than others. An elevated cord serum immunoglobulin E concentration predicted subsequent atopic manifestations though with modest sensitivity. Children and adolescents with allergic symptoms, skin prick test positivity and an elevated IgE had lower total cholesterol levels in infancy and childhood than the nonatopic subjects. In conclusion, prolonging strictly exclusive breastfeeding for over 9 months of age was not of help in prevention of allergic symptoms; instead, it was associated with increased atopic dermatitis and food hypersensitivity symptoms in childhood. Due to the modest sensitivity, cord serum IgE is not an effective screening method for atopic predisposition in the general population. Retinol and cholesterol concentrations in infancy were inversely associated with the subsequent development of allergic symptoms. Based on these findings, it is proposed that there may be differences in the inborn regulation of retinol and cholesterol levels in children with and without a genetic susceptibility to atopy, and these may play a role in the development of atopic sensitization and allergic diseases.

Significance of a short-term test drive for prospective plug-in electric vehicle consumers: An exploratory study

The test drive is a well-known step in car buying. In the emerging plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market, however, the influence of a pre-purchase test drive on a consumer's inclination to purchase is unknown. Policy makers and industry participants both are eager to understand what factors motivate vehicle consumers at the point-of-sale. A number of researchers have used choice models to shed light on consumer perceptions of PEVs, and others have investigated consumer change in disposition toward a PEV over the course of a trial, wherein test driving a PEV may take place over a number of consecutive days, weeks or months. However, there is little written on the impact of a short-term test drive - a typical experience at dealerships or public "ride-and-drive" events. The impact of a typical test drive, often measured in minutes of driving, is not well understood. This paper first presents a synthesis of the literature on the effect of PEV test drives as they relate to consumer disposition toward PEVs. An analysis of data obtained from an Australian case study whereby attitudinal and stated preference data were collected pre- and post- test drive at public "ride-and-drive" event held Brisbane, Queensland in March 2014 using a custom-designed iPad application. Motorists' perceptions and choice preferences around PEVs were captured, revealing the relative importance of their experience behind the wheel. Using the Australian context as a case-study, this paper presents an exploratory study of consumers' stated preferences toward PEVs both before and after a short test drive.

Topics in Spatial Econometrics - With Applications to House Prices

Topics in Spatial Econometrics — With Applications to House Prices Spatial effects in data occur when geographical closeness of observations influences the relation between the observations. When two points on a map are close to each other, the observed values on a variable at those points tend to be similar. The further away the two points are from each other, the less similar the observed values tend to be. Recent technical developments, geographical information systems (GIS) and global positioning systems (GPS) have brought about a renewed interest in spatial matters. For instance, it is possible to observe the exact location of an observation and combine it with other characteristics. Spatial econometrics integrates spatial aspects into econometric models and analysis. The thesis concentrates mainly on methodological issues, but the findings are illustrated by empirical studies on house price data. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter and four essays. The introductory chapter presents an overview of topics and problems in spatial econometrics. It discusses spatial effects, spatial weights matrices, especially k-nearest neighbours weights matrices, and various spatial econometric models, as well as estimation methods and inference. Further, the problem of omitted variables, a few computational and empirical aspects, the bootstrap procedure and the spatial J-test are presented. In addition, a discussion on hedonic house price models is included. In the first essay a comparison is made between spatial econometrics and time series analysis. By restricting the attention to unilateral spatial autoregressive processes, it is shown that a unilateral spatial autoregression, which enjoys similar properties as an autoregression with time series, can be defined. By an empirical study on house price data the second essay shows that it is possible to form coordinate-based, spatially autoregressive variables, which are at least to some extent able to replace the spatial structure in a spatial econometric model. In the third essay a strategy for specifying a k-nearest neighbours weights matrix by applying the spatial J-test is suggested, studied and demonstrated. In the final fourth essay the properties of the asymptotic spatial J-test are further examined. A simulation study shows that the spatial J-test can be used for distinguishing between general spatial models with different k-nearest neighbours weights matrices. A bootstrap spatial J-test is suggested to correct the size of the asymptotic test in small samples.

Leisure-time physical activity, health related functioning and retirement : a prospective cohort study among middle-aged employees

Physical inactivity has become a major threat to public health worldwide. The Finnish health and welfare policies emphasize that the working population should maintain good health and functioning until their normal retirement age and remain in good health and independence later in life. Health behaviours like physical activity potentially play an important role in reaching this target as physical activity contributes to better physical fitness and to reduced risk of major chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to examine first whether the volume and intensity of leisure-time physical activity impacts on subsequent physical health functioning, sickness absence and disability retirement. The second aim was to examine changes in leisure-time physical activity of moderate and vigorous intensity after transition to retirement. This study is part of the ongoing Helsinki Health Study. The baseline data were collected by questionnaires in 2000 - 02 among the employees of the City of Helsinki aged 40 to 60. The follow-up survey data were collected in 2007. Data on sickness absence were obtained from the employer s (City of Helsinki) sickness absence registers and pension data were obtained from the Finnish Centre for Pensions. Leisure-time physical activity was measured in four grades of intensity and classified according to physical activity recommendations considering both the volume and intensity of physical activity. Statistical techniques including analysis of covariance, logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression were used. Employees who were vigorously active during leisure time especially had better physical health functioning than those physically inactive. High physical activity in particular contributed to the maintenance of good physical health functioning. High physical activity also reduced the risk of subsequent sickness absences as well as the risk of all-cause disability retirement and retirement due to musculoskeletal and mental causes. Among those transferred to old-age retirement moderate-intensity leisure-time physical activity increased on average by more than half an hour per week and in addition the occurrence of physical inactivity reduced. Such changes were not observed among those remained employed and those transferred to disability retirement. This prospective cohort study provided novel results on the effects of leisure-time physical activity on health related functioning and changes in leisure-time physical activity after retirement. Although the benefits of moderate-intensity physical activity for health are well known these results suggest the importance of vigorous physical activity for subsequent health related functioning. Thus vigorous physical activity to enhance fitness should be given more emphasis from a public health perspective. In addition, physical activity should be encouraged among those who are about to retire.

Hostility: A prospective study of the genetic and environmental background and associations with cardiovascular risk

Hostility is a multidimensional construct having wide effects on society. In its different forms, hostility is related to a large array of social and health problems, such as criminality, substance abuse, depression, and cardiovascular risks. Identifying and tackling early-life factors that contribute to hostility may have public health significance. Although the variance in hostility is estimated to be 18-50 percent heritable, there are significant gaps in knowledge regarding the molecular genetics of hostility. It is known that a cold and unsupportive home atmosphere in childhood predicts a child s later hostility. However, the long-term effects of care-giving quality on hostility in adulthood and the role of genes in this association are unclear. The present dissertation is part of the ongoing population-based prospective Young Finns study, which commenced in 1980 with 3596 3-18-year-old boys and girls who were followed for 27 years. The specific aims of the dissertation were first to study the antecedents of hostility by looking at 1) the genetic background, 2) the early environmental predictors, and 3) the gene environment interplay behind hostility. As a second aim, the thesis endeavored to examine 4) the association between hostility and cardiovascular risks, and 5) the moderating effect of demographic factors, such as gender and socioeconomic status, on this association. The study found potential gene polymorphisms from chromosomes 7, 14, 17, and 22 suggestively associated with hostility. Of early environmental influences, breastfeeding and early care-giving were found to predict hostility in adulthood. In addition, a serotonin receptor 2A polymorphism rs6313 moderated the effect of early care-giving on later hostile attitudes. Furthermore, hostility was shown to predict cardiovascular risks, such as metabolic syndrome and inflammation. Finally, parental socioeconomic status was found to moderate the association between anger and early atherosclerosis. The new genetic and early environmental antecedents of hostility identified in this research may help in understanding the development of hostility and its health risks, and in planning appropriate prevention. The significance of early influences on this development is stressed. Although the markers studied are individual- and family-related factors, these may be influenced at the societal level by giving accurate information to all individuals concerned and by improving the societal circumstances.

Identification of prospective locations for generation expansion with least augmentation of network

With ever increasing demand for electric energy, additional generation and associated transmission facilities has to be planned and executed. In order to augment existing transmission facilities, proper planning and selective decisions are to be made whereas keeping in mind the interests of several parties who are directly or indirectly involved. Common trend is to plan optimal generation expansion over the planning period in order to meet the projected demand with minimum cost capacity addition along with a pre-specified reliability margin. Generation expansion at certain locations need new transmission network which involves serious problems such as getting right of way, environmental clearance etc. In this study, an approach to the citing of additional generation facilities in a given system with minimum or no expansion in the transmission facility is attempted using the network connectivity and the concept of electrical distance for projected load demand. The proposed approach is suitable for large interconnected systems with multiple utilities. Sample illustration on real life system is presented in order to show how this approach improves the overall performance on the operation of the system with specified performance parameters.