993 resultados para Probabilistic methods
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The Photoproduction of neutral kaons off a deuteron target has been investigated at the Tohoku University Laboratory of Nuclear Science. The PID methods investigated incorporated a combination of momentum, velocity (β=v/c), and energy deposition per unit length (dE/dx) measurements. The analysis demonstrates that energy deposition and time of flight are exceedingly useful. A higher signal to background ratio was achieved for hard cuts in combination. A probabilistic likelihood estimation approach (LE) as a method for PID was also explored. The probability of a particle being correctly identified by this LE method and the preliminary results denote the need for highly precise limitations on the distributions from which the parameters would be extracted. It was confirmed that these PID are applicable approaches to properly identify pions for the analysis of this experiment. However, the background evident in the mass spectra points to the need for a higher level of proton identification.
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The work presented in this dissertation is focused on applying engineering methods to develop and explore probabilistic survival models for the prediction of decompression sickness in US NAVY divers. Mathematical modeling, computational model development, and numerical optimization techniques were employed to formulate and evaluate the predictive quality of models fitted to empirical data. In Chapters 1 and 2 we present general background information relevant to the development of probabilistic models applied to predicting the incidence of decompression sickness. The remainder of the dissertation introduces techniques developed in an effort to improve the predictive quality of probabilistic decompression models and to reduce the difficulty of model parameter optimization.
The first project explored seventeen variations of the hazard function using a well-perfused parallel compartment model. Models were parametrically optimized using the maximum likelihood technique. Model performance was evaluated using both classical statistical methods and model selection techniques based on information theory. Optimized model parameters were overall similar to those of previously published Results indicated that a novel hazard function definition that included both ambient pressure scaling and individually fitted compartment exponent scaling terms.
We developed ten pharmacokinetic compartmental models that included explicit delay mechanics to determine if predictive quality could be improved through the inclusion of material transfer lags. A fitted discrete delay parameter augmented the inflow to the compartment systems from the environment. Based on the observation that symptoms are often reported after risk accumulation begins for many of our models, we hypothesized that the inclusion of delays might improve correlation between the model predictions and observed data. Model selection techniques identified two models as having the best overall performance, but comparison to the best performing model without delay and model selection using our best identified no delay pharmacokinetic model both indicated that the delay mechanism was not statistically justified and did not substantially improve model predictions.
Our final investigation explored parameter bounding techniques to identify parameter regions for which statistical model failure will not occur. When a model predicts a no probability of a diver experiencing decompression sickness for an exposure that is known to produce symptoms, statistical model failure occurs. Using a metric related to the instantaneous risk, we successfully identify regions where model failure will not occur and identify the boundaries of the region using a root bounding technique. Several models are used to demonstrate the techniques, which may be employed to reduce the difficulty of model optimization for future investigations.
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Considerable interest in renewable energy has increased in recent years due to the concerns raised over the environmental impact of conventional energy sources and their price volatility. In particular, wind power has enjoyed a dramatic global growth in installed capacity over the past few decades. Nowadays, the advancement of wind turbine industry represents a challenge for several engineering areas, including materials science, computer science, aerodynamics, analytical design and analysis methods, testing and monitoring, and power electronics. In particular, the technological improvement of wind turbines is currently tied to the use of advanced design methodologies, allowing the designers to develop new and more efficient design concepts. Integrating mathematical optimization techniques into the multidisciplinary design of wind turbines constitutes a promising way to enhance the profitability of these devices. In the literature, wind turbine design optimization is typically performed deterministically. Deterministic optimizations do not consider any degree of randomness affecting the inputs of the system under consideration, and result, therefore, in an unique set of outputs. However, given the stochastic nature of the wind and the uncertainties associated, for instance, with wind turbine operating conditions or geometric tolerances, deterministically optimized designs may be inefficient. Therefore, one of the ways to further improve the design of modern wind turbines is to take into account the aforementioned sources of uncertainty in the optimization process, achieving robust configurations with minimal performance sensitivity to factors causing variability. The research work presented in this thesis deals with the development of a novel integrated multidisciplinary design framework for the robust aeroservoelastic design optimization of multi-megawatt horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) rotors, accounting for the stochastic variability related to the input variables. The design system is based on a multidisciplinary analysis module integrating several simulations tools needed to characterize the aeroservoelastic behavior of wind turbines, and determine their economical performance by means of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The reported design framework is portable and modular in that any of its analysis modules can be replaced with counterparts of user-selected fidelity. The presented technology is applied to the design of a 5-MW HAWT rotor to be used at sites of wind power density class from 3 to 7, where the mean wind speed at 50 m above the ground ranges from 6.4 to 11.9 m/s. Assuming the mean wind speed to vary stochastically in such range, the rotor design is optimized by minimizing the mean and standard deviation of the LCOE. Airfoil shapes, spanwise distributions of blade chord and twist, internal structural layup and rotor speed are optimized concurrently, subject to an extensive set of structural and aeroelastic constraints. The effectiveness of the multidisciplinary and robust design framework is demonstrated by showing that the probabilistically designed turbine achieves more favorable probabilistic performance than those of the initial baseline turbine and a turbine designed deterministically.
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An important part of computed tomography is the calculation of a three-dimensional reconstruction of an object from series of X-ray images. Unfortunately, some applications do not provide sufficient X-ray images. Then, the reconstructed objects no longer truly represent the original. Inside of the volumes, the accuracy seems to vary unpredictably. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to evaluate any reconstruction, voxel by voxel. The evaluation is based on a sophisticated probabilistic handling of the measured X-rays, as well as the inclusion of a priori knowledge about the materials that the object receiving the X-ray examination consists of. For each voxel, the proposed method outputs a numerical value that represents the probability of existence of a predefined material at the position of the voxel while doing X-ray. Such a probabilistic quality measure was lacking so far. In our experiment, false reconstructed areas get detected by their low probability. In exact reconstructed areas, a high probability predominates. Receiver Operating Characteristics not only confirm the reliability of our quality measure but also demonstrate that existing methods are less suitable for evaluating a reconstruction.
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Introduction: Studies on infant dietary intake do not generally focus on the types of liquids consumed. Objective: To document by age and breastfeeding status, the types of liquids present in the diet of Mexican children under 1 year of age (< 1 y) who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012 (ENSANUT-2012). Methods: Analysis of the infant < 1 y feeding practices from the ENSANUT-2012 survey in non-breastfed (non-BF) and breastfed (BF) infants by status quo for the consumption of liquids grouped in: water, formula, fortified LICONSA milk, nutritive liquids (NL; thin cereal-based gruel with water or milk and coffee with milk) and non-nutritive liquids (non-NL) as sugared water, water-based drinks, tea, beans or chicken broth, aguamiel and coffee. In this infants < 1 y we analyzed the not grouped consumption of liquids in the first three days of life (newborns) from the mother's recall. Percentage and confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated adjusting for survey design. Statistical differences were analyzed by Z test. Results: We observed a high consumption of human milk followed by formula (56.7%) and water (51.1%) in infants under 6 months of age (< 6 mo). The proportion of non-BF infants consuming non-NL was higher than for BF infants (p < 0.05). More than 60% of older infants (6 mo and < 1 y) consumed formula and were non-BF. In newborns formula consumption was predominant, followed by tea or infusion and water. Conclusions: Non-breast milk liquids are present undesirably in Mexican infants' diet and non-NL are consumed earlier than NL, revealing inadequate early dietary practices.
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Machine Learning makes computers capable of performing tasks typically requiring human intelligence. A domain where it is having a considerable impact is the life sciences, allowing to devise new biological analysis protocols, develop patients’ treatments efficiently and faster, and reduce healthcare costs. This Thesis work presents new Machine Learning methods and pipelines for the life sciences focusing on the unsupervised field. At a methodological level, two methods are presented. The first is an “Ab Initio Local Principal Path” and it is a revised and improved version of a pre-existing algorithm in the manifold learning realm. The second contribution is an improvement over the Import Vector Domain Description (one-class learning) through the Kullback-Leibler divergence. It hybridizes kernel methods to Deep Learning obtaining a scalable solution, an improved probabilistic model, and state-of-the-art performances. Both methods are tested through several experiments, with a central focus on their relevance in life sciences. Results show that they improve the performances achieved by their previous versions. At the applicative level, two pipelines are presented. The first one is for the analysis of RNA-Seq datasets, both transcriptomic and single-cell data, and is aimed at identifying genes that may be involved in biological processes (e.g., the transition of tissues from normal to cancer). In this project, an R package is released on CRAN to make the pipeline accessible to the bioinformatic Community through high-level APIs. The second pipeline is in the drug discovery domain and is useful for identifying druggable pockets, namely regions of a protein with a high probability of accepting a small molecule (a drug). Both these pipelines achieve remarkable results. Lastly, a detour application is developed to identify the strengths/limitations of the “Principal Path” algorithm by analyzing Convolutional Neural Networks induced vector spaces. This application is conducted in the music and visual arts domains.
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The aim of this clinical study was to determine the efficacy of Uncaria tomentosa (cat's claw) against denture stomatitis (DS). Fifty patients with DS were randomly assigned into 3 groups to receive 2% miconazole, placebo, or 2% U tomentosa gel. DS level was recorded immediately, after 1 week of treatment, and 1 week after treatment. The clinical effectiveness of each treatment was measured using Newton's criteria. Mycologic samples from palatal mucosa and prosthesis were obtained to determinate colony forming units per milliliter (CFU/mL) and fungal identification at each evaluation period. Candida species were identified with HiCrome Candida and API 20C AUX biochemical test. DS severity decreased in all groups (P < .05). A significant reduction in number of CFU/mL after 1 week (P < .05) was observed for all groups and remained after 14 days (P > .05). C albicans was the most prevalent microorganism before treatment, followed by C tropicalis, C glabrata, and C krusei, regardless of the group and time evaluated. U tomentosa gel had the same effect as 2% miconazole gel. U tomentosa gel is an effective topical adjuvant treatment for denture stomatitis.
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Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.
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What is the contribution of the provision, at no cost for users, of long acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC; copper intrauterine device [IUD], the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system [LNG-IUS], contraceptive implants and depot-medroxyprogesterone [DMPA] injection) towards the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted through a Brazilian university-based clinic established over 30 years ago. Over the last 10 years of evaluation, provision of LARC methods and DMPA by the clinic are estimated to have contributed to DALY averted by between 37 and 60 maternal deaths, 315-424 child mortalities, 634-853 combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. LARC methods are associated with a high contraceptive effectiveness when compared with contraceptive methods which need frequent attention; perhaps because LARC methods are independent of individual or couple compliance. However, in general previous studies have evaluated contraceptive methods during clinical studies over a short period of time, or not more than 10 years. Furthermore, information regarding the estimation of the DALY averted is scarce. We reviewed 50 004 medical charts from women who consulted for the first time looking for a contraceptive method over the period from 2 January 1980 through 31 December 2012. Women who consulted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Campinas, Brazil were new users and users switching contraceptive, including the copper IUD (n = 13 826), the LNG-IUS (n = 1525), implants (n = 277) and DMPA (n = 9387). Estimation of the DALY averted included maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality and unsafe abortions averted. We obtained 29 416 contraceptive segments of use including 25 009 contraceptive segments of use from 20 821 new users or switchers to any LARC method or DMPA with at least 1 year of follow-up. The mean (± SD) age of the women at first consultation ranged from 25.3 ± 5.7 (range 12-47) years in the 1980s, to 31.9 ± 7.4 (range 16-50) years in 2010-2011. The most common contraceptive chosen at the first consultation was copper IUD (48.3, 74.5 and 64.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively). For an evaluation over 20 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates (SEM) were 0.4 (0.2), 2.8 (2.1), 4.0 (0.4) and 1.3 (0.4) for the LNG-IUS, the implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively and cumulative continuation rates (SEM) were 15.1 (3.7), 3.9 (1.4), 14.1 (0.6) and 7.3 (1.7) for the LNG-IUS, implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively (P < 0.001). Over the last 10 years of evaluation, the estimation of the contribution of the clinic through the provision of LARC methods and DMPA to DALY averted was 37-60 maternal deaths; between 315 and 424 child mortalities; combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality of between 634 and 853, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. The main limitations are the number of women who never returned to the clinic (overall 14% among the four methods under evaluation); consequently the pregnancy rate could be different. Other limitations include the analysis of two kinds of copper IUD and two kinds of contraceptive implants as the same IUD or implant, and the low number of users of implants. In addition, the DALY calculation relies on a number of estimates, which may vary in different parts of the world. LARC methods and DMPA are highly effective and women who were well-counselled used these methods for a long time. The benefit of averting maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality, and unsafe abortions is an example to health policy makers to implement more family planning programmes and to offer contraceptive methods, mainly LARC and DMPA, at no cost or at affordable cost for the underprivileged population. This study received partial financial support from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), grant # 2012/12810-4 and from the National Research Council (CNPq), grant #573747/2008-3. B.F.B., M.P.G., and V.M.C. were fellows from the scientific initiation programme from FAPESP. Since the year 2001, all the TCu380A IUD were donated by Injeflex, São Paulo, Brazil, and from the year 2006 all the LNG-IUS were donated by the International Contraceptive Access Foundation (ICA), Turku, Finland. Both donations are as unrestricted grants. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest associated with this study.
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The microabrasion technique of enamel consists of selectively abrading the discolored areas or causing superficial structural changes in a selective way. In microabrasion technique, abrasive products associated with acids are used, and the evaluation of enamel roughness after this treatment, as well as surface polishing, is necessary. This in-vitro study evaluated the enamel roughness after microabrasion, followed by different polishing techniques. Roughness analyses were performed before microabrasion (L1), after microabrasion (L2), and after polishing (L3).Thus, 60 bovine incisive teeth divided into two groups were selected (n=30): G1- 37% phosphoric acid (37%) (Dentsply) and pumice; G2- hydrochloric acid (6.6%) associated with silicon carbide (Opalustre - Ultradent). Thereafter, the groups were divided into three sub-groups (n=10), according to the system of polishing: A - Fine and superfine granulation aluminum oxide discs (SofLex 3M); B - Diamond Paste (FGM) associated with felt discs (FGM); C - Silicone tips (Enhance - Dentsply). A PROC MIXED procedure was applied after data exploratory analysis, as well as the Tukey-Kramer test (5%). No statistical differences were found between G1 and G2 groups. L2 differed statistically from L1 and showed superior amounts of roughness. Differences in the amounts of post-polishing roughness for specific groups (1A, 2B, and 1C) arose, which demonstrated less roughness in L3 and differed statistically from L2 in the polishing system. All products increased enamel roughness, and the effectiveness of the polishing systems was dependent upon the abrasive used.
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Silk fibroin has been widely explored for many biomedical applications, due to its biocompatibility and biodegradability. Sterilization is a fundamental step in biomaterials processing and it must not jeopardize the functionality of medical devices. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of different sterilization methods in the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of dense and porous silk fibroin membranes. Silk fibroin membranes were treated by several procedures: immersion in 70% ethanol solution, ultraviolet radiation, autoclave, ethylene oxide, and gamma radiation, and were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, Fourier-transformed infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction, tensile strength and in vitro cytotoxicity to Chinese hamster ovary cells. The results indicated that the sterilization methods did not cause perceivable morphological changes in the membranes and the membranes were not toxic to cells. The sterilization methods that used organic solvent or an increased humidity and/or temperature (70% ethanol, autoclave, and ethylene oxide) increased the silk II content in the membranes: the dense membranes became more brittle, while the porous membranes showed increased strength at break. Membranes that underwent sterilization by UV and gamma radiation presented properties similar to the nonsterilized membranes, mainly for tensile strength and FTIR results.
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Frankfurters are widely consumed all over the world, and the production requires a wide range of meat and non-meat ingredients. Due to these characteristics, frankfurters are products that can be easily adulterated with lower value meats, and the presence of undeclared species. Adulterations are often still difficult to detect, due the fact that the adulterant components are usually very similar to the authentic product. In this work, FT-Raman spectroscopy was employed as a rapid technique for assessing the quality of frankfurters. Based on information provided by the Raman spectra, a multivariate classification model was developed to identify the frankfurter type. The aim was to study three types of frankfurters (chicken, turkey and mixed meat) according to their Raman spectra, based on the fatty vibrational bands. Classification model was built using partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and the performance model was evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, efficiency and Matthews's correlation coefficient. The PLS-DA models give sensitivity and specificity values on the test set in the ranges of 88%-100%, showing good performance of the classification models. The work shows the Raman spectroscopy with chemometric tools can be used as an analytical tool in quality control of frankfurters.
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The aim of the present study was to compare four methods of fixation in mandibular body fractures. Mechanical and photoelastic tests were performed using polyurethane and photoelastic resin mandibles, respectively. The study groups contained the following: (I), two miniplates of 2.0 mm; (II) one 2.0 mm plate and an Erich arch bar; (III) one 2.4 mm plate and an Erich arch bar, and (IV) one 2.0 mm plate and one 2.4 mm plate. The differences between the mean values were analyzed using Tukey's test, the Mann-Whitney test and the Bonferroni correction. Group II recorded the lowest resistance, followed by groups I, IV and III. The photoelastic test confirmed the increase of tension in group II. The 2.4 mm system board in linear mandibular body fractures provided more resistance and the use of only one 2.0 mm plate in the central area of the mandible created higher tension.
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To subjectively and objectively compare an accessible interactive electronic library using Moodle with lectures for urology teaching of medical students. Forty consecutive fourth-year medical students and one urology teacher were exposed to two teaching methods (4 weeks each) in the form of problem-based learning: - lectures and - student-centered group discussion based on Moodle (modular object-oriented dynamic learning environment) full time online delivered (24/7) with video surgeries, electronic urology cases and additional basic principles of the disease process. All 40 students completed the study. While 30% were moderately dissatisfied with their current knowledge base, online learning course delivery using Moodle was considered superior to the lectures by 86% of the students. The study found the following observations: (1) the increment in learning grades ranged from 7.0 to 9.7 for students in the online Moodle course compared to 4.0-9.6 to didactic lectures; (2) the self-reported student involvement in the online course was characterized as large by over 60%; (3) the teacher-student interaction was described as very frequent (50%) and moderately frequent (50%); and (4) more inquiries and requisitions by students as well as peer assisting were observed from the students using the Moodle platform. The Moodle platform is feasible and effective, enthusing medical students to learn, improving immersion in the urology clinical rotation and encouraging the spontaneous peer assisted learning. Future studies should expand objective evaluations of knowledge acquisition and retention.
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The importance of medicinal plants and their use in industrial applications is increasing worldwide, especially in Brazil. Phyllanthus species, popularly known as quebra-pedras in Brazil, are used in folk medicine for treating urinary infections and renal calculus. This paper reports an authenticity study, based on herbal drugs from Phyllanthus species, involving commercial and authentic samples using spectroscopic techniques: FT-IR, ¹H HR-MAS NMR and ¹H NMR in solution, combined with chemometric analysis. The spectroscopic techniques evaluated, coupled with chemometric methods, have great potential in the investigation of complex matrices. Furthermore, several metabolites were identified by the NMR techniques.