Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Price promotions effects of virtue and vice products

Purpose: This paper aims to propose models that capture the own effect of price promotions of virtue and vice products on sales and cross effects within the subcategory, between subcategories and between periods. The hypotheses assume that, due to reverse consumption self-control, the demand for vice products is more price-sensitive than demand for virtue products, but the demand for vice products is less price-sensitive between periods than demand for virtue products; furthermore, due to the degree of impulse-buying and to licensing, the demand sensitivity of the products of a subcategory and of those of other subcategories varies according to the type of promoted product (vice or virtue). Design/methodology/approach: The methodology is based on different econometrical models that estimate the total net effect of price promotions of virtue and vice products on sales. Findings: The results show a greater own effect for price promotions of vice products than for virtue products. However, the complementary sales effect between subcategories for virtue products facilitates greater expansion of the subcategory in virtue products than in vice products. Originality/value: Although price promotions of virtue products (light) and vice products (regular) have proliferated in recent years, researchers have only estimated their own sales effect. Alternatively, the paper contributes by considering own and cross effects.

Do European Union fines deter price-fixing? Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/04, May 2013

The issue: Anti-cartel enforcement is the least controversial of competition policy themes. Agreements to restrict competition such as price fixing or market sharing have obvious negative effects on welfare. Within the European Union, however, industry representatives have increasingly voiced concern that the European Commission applies a too-strict fining policy to enforce anti-cartel law, particularly since the introduction of new guidelines on fines in 2006. Fines are said to be too high, disproportionate and liable to introduce distortions into the market, ultimately leading to higher prices for consumers. It is often argued that more lenient approaches should be followed in crisis times. Policy challenge: High fines for cartel activity could entail costs for society and might be difficult to implement. Nevertheless, there is no case for reducing current levels of EU anti-cartel fines. Fine levels already take the economic crisis into account, and the net present value of fines might prove to be too low to discourage collusion. We estimate that fines might even be not high enough to offset the additional profits yielded by collusion. Fines should be complemented with other measures to increase deterrence, in particular personal sanctions targeting company officers who are responsible for leading the company to commit infringements. In the short term, pressure on decision makers could be increased by reducing the expected duration of investigations.

The Empirical Content of the Present Value Model: A survey of the instrumental uses of farmland prices. Factor Markets Working Document No. 53, June 2013

After reviewing the Present Value Model (PVM), in its basic form and with its major extensions, the authors carried out a literature review on the instrumental uses of farm land prices; namely what land prices may reveal in the framework of the PVM. Urban influence, non-market goods and climate change are topics where the PVM used with applied data may reveal farmers’ or landowners’ beliefs or subjective values, which are discussed in this paper. There is also extensive discussion of the topic of public regulations, and how they may affect land price directly, or through its present value.

Desk guide to price and cost anaylsis /

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Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm-quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricingerror and return-prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.

Composite auction method for suppressing unreasonable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market

The existence of undesirable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market requires an efficient auction mechanism. However, many of the existing auction mechanism have difficulties in suppressing such unreasonable price spikes effectively. A new auction mechanism is proposed to suppress effectively unreasonable price spikes in a competitive electricity market. It optimally combines system marginal price auction and pay as bid auction mechanisms. A threshold value is determined to activate the switching between the marginal price auction and the proposed composite auction. Basically when the system marginal price is higher than the threshold value, the composite auction for high price electricity market is activated. The winning electricity sellers will sell their electricity at the system marginal price or their own bid prices, depending on their rights of being paid at the system marginal price and their offers' impact on suppressing undesirable price spikes. Such economic stimuli discourage sellers from practising economic and physical withholdings. Multiple price caps are proposed to regulate strong market power. We also compare other auction mechanisms to highlight the characteristics of the proposed one. Numerical simulation using the proposed auction mechanism is given to illustrate the procedure of this new auction mechanism.

Energy forward price prediction with a hybrid adaptive model

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward electricity/gas prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a Kalman filter (KF) and a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroschedasticity (GARCH) model (often used in financial forecasting). The GARCH model is used to compute next value of a time series. The KF updates parameters of the GARCH model when the new observation is available. This technique is applied to real data from the UK energy markets to evaluate its performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using this hybrid model. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Estimating the value of victory:English football

Professional English football combines publicly traded ownership shares with an active and observable wagering market. This article utilizes the information from these markets, presenting a model that may be used to estimate the impact of matches on club values. Such information is potentially useful as clubs assess the values of players and coaches based on their anticipated contributions to team performance. The article also illustrates the modelling of ‘binomial events,’ such as win/lose, hire/do not hire or approval/disapproval, and how market-determined price responses illuminate expectations.

Consumer price knowledge in the market for apparel

Purpose – The aim of this study is to analyze consumers' price knowledge in the market for apparels. Design/methodology/approach – After reviewing earlier attempts at assessing the construct, the price estimation error “PEE” was used, a measure based on explicit price knowledge stored in long-term memory, as a valid indicator of price knowledge. Findings – The results, including data from about 1,527 consumers on 66 products from the German apparel market, indicate that price knowledge is relatively low. Originality/value – Although, in the literature, there are several studies on price knowledge in the food industry, little is known about price knowledge in other industry sectors. This is quite surprising since pricing strategy is a concept which is vitally important to all retailers. Therefore, this study is a first contribution to extending the concept of behavioral pricing to the apparel market.

Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.

The effect of universal futures on opening and closing stock market price discovery

Purpose – On 29 January 2001, Euronext LIFFE introduced single security futures contracts on a range of global companies. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that the introduction of these futures contracts had on the behaviour of opening and closing UK equity returns. Design/methodology/approach – The paper models the price discovery process using the Amihud and Mendelson partial adjustment model which can be estimated using a Kalman filter. Findings – Empirical results show that during the pre-futures period both opening and closing returns under-react to new information. After the introduction of futures contracts opening returns over-react. A rise in the partial adjustment coefficient also takes place for closing returns but this is not large enough to cause over-reaction. Originality/value – This is the first study to examine the impact of a single security futures contract on the speed of spot market price discovery.

Understanding high-value manufacturing in Scottish SMEs

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the use of high-value manufacturing (HVM) concepts in Scottish SMEs and define how they are being used to gain competitive advantage. Design/methodology/approach: Cross-sectional research carried out using a large-scale survey of 435 SMEs and semi-structured interviews of a subset of 50 SMEs. Findings: Findings indicate that HVM is not a homogeneous state but an umbrella term for a number of operational models adopted by manufacturers that are progressively moving from simple price-based production; companies must, as a foundation, be operationally excellent in all lifecycle phases before extending their capability by offering a more comprehensive service; HVM is not a static state but a journey that differs in nature for each manufacturer depending on the nature of its market and customer. Research limitations/implications: The approach to theory must be more integrated combining aspects of marketing, strategic and operational theory. Research must be carried out using the supply chain, rather than the firm, as the unit of analysis. Practical implications: Manufacturing efficiency has now become an order qualifier and competitive advantage should now be sought through the integration of design, production and service activities from strategic levels down to operational levels across all the functions of a business which link seamlessly to customer and supplier activities. Originality/value: This paper contains insights into Scottish SMEs and their practice of HVM; defines the activity that makes up HVM at an operational as opposed to an economic or strategic level; proposes a model that characterises the stages of HVM that SMEs transition through. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

The role of pre-existing liquidity in determining price efficiency and liquidity gains following the introduction of SETSmm

In this paper we examine the impact that the new trading system SETSmm had on market quality measures such as firm value, liquidity and pricing efficiency. This system was introduced for mid-cap securities on the London Stock Exchange in 2003. We show that there is a small SETSmm return premium associated with the announcement that securities are to migrate to the new trading system. We find that migration to SETSmm also improves liquidity and pricing efficiency and these changes are related to the return premium. We also find that these gains are stronger for firms with high pre SETSmm liquidity and weaker for firms with low SETSmm liquidity. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing the value relevance of accounting data after the introduction of IFRS in Europe

Since 2005, European-listed companies have been required to prepare their consolidated financial statements in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). We examine whether value relevance increased following the introduction of IFRS, using a sample of 3,721 companies listed on five European stock exchanges: Frankfurt, Madrid, Paris, London, and Milan. We find mixed evidence of an increase in value relevance. However, the influence of earnings on share price increased following the introduction of IFRS in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, while the influence of book value of equity decreased (except for the United Kingdom). © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.