Boundary value problems for stochastic differential equations

A theory of two-point boundary value problems analogous to the theory of initial value problems for stochastic ordinary differential equations whose solutions form Markov processes is developed. The theory of initial value problems consists of three main parts: the proof that the solution process is markovian and diffusive; the construction of the Kolmogorov or Fokker-Planck equation of the process; and the proof that the transistion probability density of the process is a unique solution of the Fokker-Planck equation.

It is assumed here that the stochastic differential equation under consideration has, as an initial value problem, a diffusive markovian solution process. When a given boundary value problem for this stochastic equation almost surely has unique solutions, we show that the solution process of the boundary value problem is also a diffusive Markov process. Since a boundary value problem, unlike an initial value problem, has no preferred direction for the parameter set, we find that there are two Fokker-Planck equations, one for each direction. It is shown that the density of the solution process of the boundary value problem is the unique simultaneous solution of this pair of Fokker-Planck equations.

This theory is then applied to the problem of a vibrating string with stochastic density.

Bifurcation theory of nonlinear boundary value problems

The theory of bifurcation of solutions to two-point boundary value problems is developed for a system of nonlinear first order ordinary differential equations in which the bifurcation parameter is allowed to appear nonlinearly. An iteration method is used to establish necessary and sufficient conditions for bifurcation and to construct a unique bifurcated branch in a neighborhood of a bifurcation point which is a simple eigenvalue of the linearized problem. The problem of bifurcation at a degenerate eigenvalue of the linearized problem is reduced to that of solving a system of algebraic equations. Cases with no bifurcation and with multiple bifurcation at a degenerate eigenvalue are considered.

The iteration method employed is shown to generate approximate solutions which contain those obtained by formal perturbation theory. Thus the formal perturbation solutions are rigorously justified. A theory of continuation of a solution branch out of the neighborhood of its bifurcation point is presented. Several generalizations and extensions of the theory to other types of problems, such as systems of partial differential equations, are described.

The theory is applied to the problem of the axisymmetric buckling of thin spherical shells. Results are obtained which confirm recent numerical computations.

A singularly perturbed linear two-point boundary-value problem

We consider the following singularly perturbed linear two-point boundary-value problem:

Ly(x) ≡ Ω(ε)D_xy(x) - A(x,ε)y(x) = f(x,ε) 0≤x≤1 (1a)

By ≡ L(ε)y(0) + R(ε)y(1) = g(ε) ε → 0^+ (1b)

Here Ω(ε) is a diagonal matrix whose first m diagonal elements are 1 and last m elements are ε. Aside from reasonable continuity conditions placed on A, L, R, f, g, we assume the lower right mxm principle submatrix of A has no eigenvalues whose real part is zero. Under these assumptions a constructive technique is used to derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique solution of (1). These sufficient conditions are used to define when (1) is a regular problem. It is then shown that as ε → 0^+ the solution of a regular problem exists and converges on every closed subinterval of (0,1) to a solution of the reduced problem. The reduced problem consists of the differential equation obtained by formally setting ε equal to zero in (1a) and initial conditions obtained from the boundary conditions (1b). Several examples of regular problems are also considered.

A similar technique is used to derive the properties of the solution of a particular difference scheme used to approximate (1). Under restrictions on the boundary conditions (1b) it is shown that for the stepsize much larger than ε the solution of the difference scheme, when applied to a regular problem, accurately represents the solution of the reduced problem.

Furthermore, the existence of a similarity transformation which block diagonalizes a matrix is presented as well as exponential bounds on certain fundamental solution matrices associated with the problem (1).

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Value Estimation and Comparison in Multi-Attribute Choice

The following work explores the processes individuals utilize when making multi-attribute choices. With the exception of extremely simple or familiar choices, most decisions we face can be classified as multi-attribute choices. In order to evaluate and make choices in such an environment, we must be able to estimate and weight the particular attributes of an option. Hence, better understanding the mechanisms involved in this process is an important step for economists and psychologists. For example, when choosing between two meals that differ in taste and nutrition, what are the mechanisms that allow us to estimate and then weight attributes when constructing value? Furthermore, how can these mechanisms be influenced by variables such as attention or common physiological states, like hunger?

In order to investigate these and similar questions, we use a combination of choice and attentional data, where the attentional data was collected by recording eye movements as individuals made decisions. Chapter 1 designs and tests a neuroeconomic model of multi-attribute choice that makes predictions about choices, response time, and how these variables are correlated with attention. Chapter 2 applies the ideas in this model to intertemporal decision-making, and finds that attention causally affects discount rates. Chapter 3 explores how hunger, a common physiological state, alters the mechanisms we utilize as we make simple decisions about foods.

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

Fast numerical methods for mixed, singular Helmholtz boundary value problems and Laplace eigenvalue problems - with applications to antenna design, sloshing, electromagnetic scattering and spectral geometry

This thesis presents a novel class of algorithms for the solution of scattering and eigenvalue problems on general two-dimensional domains under a variety of boundary conditions, including non-smooth domains and certain "Zaremba" boundary conditions - for which Dirichlet and Neumann conditions are specified on various portions of the domain boundary. The theoretical basis of the methods for the Zaremba problems on smooth domains concern detailed information, which is put forth for the first time in this thesis, about the singularity structure of solutions of the Laplace operator under boundary conditions of Zaremba type. The new methods, which are based on use of Green functions and integral equations, incorporate a number of algorithmic innovations, including a fast and robust eigenvalue-search algorithm, use of the Fourier Continuation method for regularization of all smooth-domain Zaremba singularities, and newly derived quadrature rules which give rise to high-order convergence even around singular points for the Zaremba problem. The resulting algorithms enjoy high-order convergence, and they can tackle a variety of elliptic problems under general boundary conditions, including, for example, eigenvalue problems, scattering problems, and, in particular, eigenfunction expansion for time-domain problems in non-separable physical domains with mixed boundary conditions.

On the uniqueness of singular solutions to boundary-initial value problems in linear elastodynamics

This investigation deals with certain generalizations of the classical uniqueness theorem for the second boundary-initial value problem in the linearized dynamical theory of not necessarily homogeneous nor isotropic elastic solids. First, the regularity assumptions underlying the foregoing theorem are relaxed by admitting stress fields with suitably restricted finite jump discontinuities. Such singularities are familiar from known solutions to dynamical elasticity problems involving discontinuous surface tractions or non-matching boundary and initial conditions. The proof of the appropriate uniqueness theorem given here rests on a generalization of the usual energy identity to the class of singular elastodynamic fields under consideration.

Following this extension of the conventional uniqueness theorem, we turn to a further relaxation of the customary smoothness hypotheses and allow the displacement field to be differentiable merely in a generalized sense, thereby admitting stress fields with square-integrable unbounded local singularities, such as those encountered in the presence of focusing of elastic waves. A statement of the traction problem applicable in these pathological circumstances necessitates the introduction of "weak solutions'' to the field equations that are accompanied by correspondingly weakened boundary and initial conditions. A uniqueness theorem pertaining to this weak formulation is then proved through an adaptation of an argument used by O. Ladyzhenskaya in connection with the first boundary-initial value problem for a second-order hyperbolic equation in a single dependent variable. Moreover, the second uniqueness theorem thus obtained contains, as a special case, a slight modification of the previously established uniqueness theorem covering solutions that exhibit only finite stress-discontinuities.