The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile

This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the findings of the recent international literature: the predictive power of the activity measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. This weak predictive contribution is robust to the use of final and real-time data.

A note on the local power of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests

This paper examines the local power of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient tests under the presence of a scalar parameter, phi say, that is orthogonal to the remaining parameters. We show that some of the coefficients that define the local powers remain unchanged regardless of whether phi is known or needs to be estimated, where as the others can be written as the sum of two terms, the first of which being the corresponding term obtained as if phi were known, and the second, an additional term yielded by the fact that phi is unknown. The contribution of each set of parameters on the local powers of the tests can then be examined. Various implications of our main result are stated and discussed. Several examples are presented for illustrative purposes

The local power of the gradient test

The asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the gradient test statistic is derived for a composite hypothesis under a sequence of Pitman alternative hypotheses converging to the null hypothesis at rate n(-1/2), n being the sample size. Comparisons of the local powers of the gradient, likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests reveal no uniform superiority property. The power performance of all four criteria in one-parameter exponential family is examined.

Inference of Raja miraletus population structure using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA: comparing the resolution power of molecular markers in exploring species and population boundaries

This study focused on the role of oceanographic discontinuities and the presence of transitional areas in shaping the population structure and the phylogeography of the Raja miraletus species complex, coupled with the test of the effective occurrence of past speciation events. The comparisons between the Atlantic African and the North-Eastern Atlantic-Mediterranean geographic populations were unravelled using both Cytochrome Oxidase I and eight microsatellite loci. This approach guaranteed a robust dataset for the identification of a speciation event between the Atlantic African clade, corresponding to the ex Raja ocellifera nominal species, and the NE Atlantic-Mediterranean R. miraletus clade. As a matter of fact, the origin of the Atlantic Africa and the NE Atlantic-Mediterranean deep split dated about 11.74MYA and was likely due to the synergic influence currents and two upwelling areas crossing the Western African Waters. Within the Mediterranean Sea, particular attention was also paid to the transitional area represented by Adventura and Maltese Bank, that might have contributed in sustaining the connectivity of the Western and the Eastern Mediterranean geographical populations. Furthermore, the geology of the easternmost part of Sicily and the geo-morphological depression of the Calabrian Arc could have driven the differentiation of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Although bathymetric and oceanographic discontinuity could represent barriers to dispersal and migration between Eastern and Western Mediterranean samples, a clear and complete genetic separation among them was not detected. Results produced by this work identified a speciation event defining Raja ocellifera and R. miraletus as two different species, and describing the R. miraletus species complex as the most ancient cryptic speciation event in the family Rajidae, representing another example of how strictly connected the environment, the behavioural habits and the evolutionary and ecologic drivers are.

Reliability and discriminatory power of methods for dental plaque quantification

This in situ study evaluated the discriminatory power and reliability of methods of dental plaque quantification and the relationship between visual indices (VI) and fluorescence camera (FC) to detect plaque.