Are mortgage lenders guilty of the housing bubble? A UK perspective

Existing theoretical models of house prices and credit rely on continuous rationality of consumers, an assumption that has been frequently questioned in recent years. Meanwhile, empirical investigations of the relationship between prices and credit are often based on national-level data, which is then tested for structural breaks and asymmetric responses, usually with subsamples. Earlier author argues that local markets are structurally different from one another and so the coefficients of any estimated housing market model should vary from region to region. We investigate differences in the price–credit relationship for 12 regions of the UK. Markov-switching is introduced to capture asymmetric market behaviours and turning points. Results show that credit abundance had a large impact on house prices in Greater London and nearby regions alongside a strong positive feedback effect from past house price movements. This impact is even larger in Greater London and the South East of England when house prices are falling, which are the only instances where the credit effect is more prominent than the positive feedback effect. A strong positive feedback effect from past lending activity is also present in the loan dynamics. Furthermore, bubble probabilities extracted using a discrete Kalman filter neatly capture market turning points.

THE CO-INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE COASTAL UPWELLING AT CABO FRIO: A NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION USING COUPLED MODELS

A coupled atmospheric-oceanic model was used to investigate whether there is a positive feedback between the coastal upwelling and the sea breeze at Cabo Frio - RJ (Brazil). Two experiments were performed to ascertain the influence of the sea breeze on the coastal upwelling: the first one used the coupled model forced with synoptic NE winds of 8 m s(-1) and the sign of the sea breeze circulation was set by the atmospheric model; the second experiment used only the oceanic model with constant 8 m s(-1) NE winds. Then, to study the influence of the coastal upwelling on the sea breeze, two more experiments were performed: one using a coastal upwelling representative SST initial field and the other one using a constant and homogeneous SST field of 26 degrees C. Finally, two more experiments were conducted to verify the influence of the topography and the spatial distribution of the sea surface temperature on the previous results. The results showed that the sea breeze can intensify the coastal upwelling, but the coastal upwelling does not intensify the sea breeze circulation, suggesting that there is no positive feedback between these two phenomena at Cabo Frio.

The Ventral Premammillary Nucleus Links Fasting-Induced Changes in Leptin Levels and Coordinated Luteinizing Hormone Secretion

Physiological conditions of low leptin levels like those observed during negative energy balance are usually characterized by the suppression of luteinizing hormone (LH) secretion and fertility. Leptin administration restores LH levels and reproductive function. Leptin action on LH secretion is thought to be mediated by the brain. However, the neuronal population that mediates this effect is still undefined. The hypothalamic ventral premammillary nucleus (PMV) neurons express a dense concentration of leptin receptors and project to brain areas related to reproductive control. Therefore, we hypothesized that the PMV is well located to mediate leptin action on LH secretion. To test our hypothesis, we performed bilateral excitotoxic lesions of the PMV in adult female rats. PMV-lesioned animals displayed a clear disruption of the estrous cycle, remaining in anestrus for 15-20 d. After apparent recovery of cyclicity, animals perfused in the afternoon of proestrus showed decreased Fos immunoreactivity in the anteroventral periventricular nucleus and in gonadotropin releasing hormone neurons. PMV-lesioned animals also displayed decreased estrogen and LH secretion on proestrus. Lesions caused no changes in mean food intake and body weight up to 7 weeks after surgery. We further tested the ability of leptin to induce LH secretion in PMV-lesioned fasted animals. We found that complete lesions of the PMV precluded leptin stimulation of LH secretion on fasting. Our findings demonstrate that the PMV is a key site linking changing levels of leptin and coordinated control of reproduction.

Endothelin A receptor antagonist modulates lymphocyte and eosinophil infiltration, hyperreactivity and mucus in murine asthma

Levels of endothelins are particularly high in the lung, and there is evidence that these peptides are involved in asthma. Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease associated with lymphocyte infiltration. In the present study, we used a murine model of asthma to investigate the role of endothelins in lymphocyte and eosinophil infiltration into the airway hyperreactivity and mucus secretion. Sensitized C57B1/6 mice were treated with endothelin ET(A) receptor antagonist (BQ123) or endothelin ET(B) receptor antagonist (BQ788) 30 min before an antigen aerosol challenge. After 24 h, dose response curves to methacholine were performed in isolated lungs, FACS analysis of lymphocytes and eosinophil counts were performed in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and mucus index was determined by histopathology. In sensitized and antigen-challenged mice there is a marked increase in the T CD(4)(+), T CD(8)(+), B220(+), T gamma delta(+) and NK1.1(+) lymphocyte subsets. Treatment with BQ123 further increased these cell populations. The number of eosinophils, airway hyperreactivity and mucus were all reduced by BQ123 treatment. The BQ788 had no significant effect on the parameters analyzed. Treatment with BQ123 reduced the endothelin concentration in lung homogenates, suggesting that endothelins exert a positive feedback on their synthesis. We show here that in murine asthma the ET(A) receptor antagonist up-regulates lymphocyte infiltration and reduces eosinophils, hyperreactivity and mucus. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Melatonin triggers PKA activation in the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium chabaudi

Calcium (Ca2+) is a critical regulator of many aspects of the Plasmodium reproductive cycle. In particular, intra-erythrocyte Plasmodium parasites respond to circulating levels of the melatonin in a process mediated partly by intracellular Ca2+. Melatonin promotes the development and synchronicity of parasites, thereby enhancing their spread and worsening the clinical implications. The signalling mechanisms underlying the effects of melatonin are not fully established, although both Ca2+ and cyclic AMP (cAMP) have been implicated. Furthermore, it is not clear whether different strains of Plasmodium use the same, or divergent, signals to control their development. The aim of this study was to explore the signalling mechanisms engaged by melatonin in P. chabaudi, a virulent rodent parasite. Using parasites at the throphozoite stage acutely isolated from mice erythrocytes, we demonstrate that melatonin triggers cAMP production and protein kinase A (PKA) activation. Interestingly, the stimulation of cAMP/PKA signalling by melatonin was dependent on elevation of Ca2+ within the parasite, because buffering Ca2+ changes using the chelator BAPTA prevented cAMP production in response to melatonin. Incubation with melatonin evoked robust Ca2+ signals within the parasite, as did the application of a membrane-permeant analogue of cAMP. Our data suggest that P. chabaudi engages both Ca2+ and cAMP signalling systems when stimulated by melatonin. Furthermore, there is positive feedback between these messengers, because Ca2+ evokes cAMP elevation and vice versa. Melatonin more than doubled the observed extent of parasitemia, and the increase in cAMP concentration and PKA activation was essential for this effect. These data support the possibility to use melatonin antagonists or derivates in therapeutic approach.

Kinetics of autocatalytic acid hydrolysis of cellulose with crystalline and amorphous fractions

The acid hydrolysis of cellulose with crystalline and amorphous fractions is analyzed on the basis of autocatalytic model with a positive feedback of acid production from the degraded biopolymer. In the condition of low acid rate production compared with hydrolysis rate, both fraction of cellulose decrease exponentially with linear and cubic time dependence, and the normalized number of scissions per cellulose chain follows a sigmoid behavior with reaction time. The model predicts that self generated acidic compounds from cellulose accelerate the degradation of the biopolymer. However, if the acidic compounds produced are volatile species, then their release under low pressure will reduce the global rate of degradation of cellulose toward its intrinsic rate value determined by the residual acid catalyst present in the starting material.

Approximate solution of the autocatalytic hydrolysis of cellulose

Depolymerization of cellulose in homogeneous acidic medium is analyzed on the basis of autocatalytic model of hydrolysis with a positive feedback of acid production from the degraded biopolymer. The normalized number of scissions per cellulose chain, S(t)/nA degrees A = 1 - C(t)/C(0), follows a sigmoid behavior with reaction time t, and the cellulose concentration C(t) decreases exponentially with a linear and cubic time dependence, C(t) = C(0)exp[-at - bt (3)], where a and b are model parameters easier determined from data analysis.

Film som kommunikation : En studie av gymnasieungdomars filmarbete

The starting point for this work was a discussion between my supervisor and myself during my teaching training. The discussion concerned the appropriateness of allowing students make films with sexual content. Film gives young people the opportunity to express their feelings and broaden their views. If the film then disseminates to unknown people via in-ternet, which it most likely will do, maybe it is no longer so positive. The aim of this study is to shed light on various aspects of identity and ethics that are important to keep in mind when young people in school make films. These aspects are to avoid making young people vulnerable to abuse and improper influence. One aim is also to highlight the advantages of making films in school. The study is inspired by hermeneutic interpretive and based on qualitative interviews. The informants are four students at the age of 18-19 at two different schools in one municipality in Sweden.The results of the study show that it is important for the informants that the films are pro-duced in an aesthetically good way so that it appeals to the audience. Two of the infor-mants have a specific audience and make more conscious choices, so that the audience will understand what is said. The study shows that the more a filmmaker considers the audi-ence, the more consciously he or she uses film as communication. To get positive feedback is important, but it is mostly friends of the filmmakers that actually comment. To get nega-tive comments is regarded as a disadvantage when placing material on the internet. Howev-er, none of the informants in the study have received negative comments on what has been posted. The opinions about what the informants believe is inappropriate to post on inter-net or to make films about regards sexuality and violations. Earlier studies show that mate-rial can, because it is interesting to other people, become widespread. For this reason it is important for teachers to have conversations with students about their preferences and opinions on various issues. Adults need to interfere in the young people's world, while be-ing open to their opinions. Then the young people's value system will be built up and give them a safe tool that helps them to avoid improper influence.

A atividade do capital estrangeiro na Bovespa

Este trabalho discute a recente evolução e a crescente importância do investimento estrangeiro no mercado de capitais brasileiro, observando como a sua presença afeta e é influenciada pela dinâmica local. Como primeiro achado, destaca-se a reatividade desses agentes ao mercado quanto às vendas de ativos; ao investigar se esse comportamento concorreria para um ambiente mais volátil e, em um cenário mais adverso, a própria desestabilização dos preços, constatou-se que suas compras mitigariam o efeito, mas que suas vendas operariam o oposto, sendo que em condições normais de mercado a demanda excessiva dos estrangeiros pressionaria significativamente os preços. Determinou-se também a importância dos mercados externos, das taxas básicas de juros interna e externa, da taxa de câmbio local e da liquidez do mercado à vista como fatores de estímulo a novas compras desses atores, assim como do câmbio, investimento direto líquido, risco país e liquidez para explicar as vendas adicionais. Por fim, surgiram como determinantes à entrada líquida de recursos estrangeiros na Bovespa o desempenho promissor dos mercados externos desenvolvidos e os juros locais em queda, sendo que o desenvolvimento bursátil local e um eventual cenário de crise seriam particularmente significativos na dinâmica de internalização de recursos no país.

The best are never normal : exploring the distribution of firm performance

Competitive Strategy literature predicts three different mechanisms of performance generation, thus distinguishing between firms that have competitive advantage, firms that have competitive disadvantage or firms that have neither. Nonetheless, previous works in the field have fitted a single normal distribution to model firm performance. Here, we develop a new approach that distinguishes among performance generating mechanisms and allows the identification of firms with competitive advantage or disadvantage. Theorizing on the positive feedback loops by which firms with competitive advantage have facilitated access to acquire new resources, we proposed a distribution we believe data on firm performance should follow. We illustrate our model by assessing its fit to data on firm performance, addressing its theoretical implications and comparing it to previous works.

Co-creation in hospitality industry: a case study on the drivers of traveler-generated content

User-generated content in travel industry is the phenomenon studied in this research, which aims to fill the literature gap on the drivers to write reviews on TripAdvisor. The object of study is relevant from a managerial standpoint since the motivators that drive users to co-create can shape strategies and be turned into external leverages that generate value for brands through content production. From an academic perspective, the goal is to enhance literature on the field, and fill a gap on adherence of local culture to UGC given industry structure specificities. The business’ impact of UGC is supported by the fact that it increases e-commerce conversion rates since research undertaken by Ye, Law, Gu and Chen (2009) states each 10% in traveler review ratings boosts online booking in more than 5%. The literature review builds a theoretical framework on required concepts to support the TripAdvisor case study methodology. Quantitative and qualitative data compound the methodological approach through literature review, desk research, executive interview, and user survey which are analyzed under factor and cluster analysis to group users with similar drivers towards UGC. Additionally, cultural and country-specific aspects impact user behavior. Since hospitality industry in Brazil is concentrated on long tail – 92% of hotels in Brazil are independent ones (Jones Lang LaSalle, 2015, p. 7) – and lesser known hotels take better advantage of reviews – according to Luca (2011) each one Yelp-star increase in rating, increases in 9% independent restaurant revenue whereas in chain restaurants the reviews have no effect – , this dissertation sought to understand UGC in the context of travelers from São Paulo (Brazil) and adopted the case of TripAdvisor to describe what are the incentives that drives user’s co-creation among targeted travelers. It has an outcome of 4 different clusters with different drivers for UGC that enables to design marketing strategies, and it also concludes there’s a big potential to convert current content consumers into producers, the remaining importance of friends and family referrals and the role played by incentives. Among the conclusions, this study lead us to an exploration of positive feedback and network effect concepts, a reinforcement of the UGC relevance for long tail hotels, the interdependence across content production, consumption and participation; and the role played by technology allied with behavioral analysis to take effective decisions. The adherence of UGC to hospitality industry, also outlines the formulation of the concept present in the dissertation title of “Traveler-Generated Content”.

Predictors of incorrectness in antimicrobial prescription in the Bauru State Hospital (Bauru city, São Paulo State, Brazil)

The inappropriate use of antimicrobials in hospitals presents a negative impact on patient outcome and is associated with the emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant microorganisms. Antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) have been instituted in order to improve the quality of prescriptions in hospitals. In this setting, the identification of patterns of inappropriate antimicrobial prescription is a valuable tool that allows ASPs to identify priorities for directing educative/restrictive policies. With this purpose, a study was conducted in the Bauru State Hospital, a teaching hospital with 285 beds affiliated to the Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University. The hospital maintains an active ASP since it was opened, in 2002. We selected 25% of the requests for parenteral antimicrobials (RPAs) from 2005 for analysis. Prescriptions for prophylactic purposes were excluded. All other RPAs were classified according to a modified Kunin and Jones categories. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to identify predictors of general inappropriateness and of specific prescription errors. Prescriptions classified as "appropriate'' or "probably appropriate" were selected as controls in all stages of the study. Among 963 RPAs included in our study, 34.6% were inappropriate. General predictors of inappropriateness were: prescription on weekends/holidays (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.20-2.28, p = 0.002), patient from intensive care unit (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.11-2.23, p = 0.01), peritoneal (OR = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.27-3.65, p = 0.004) or urinary tract infection (OR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.25-2.87, p = 0.002), combined therapy with two or more antimicrobials (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.15-2.57, p = 0.008) and prescriptions including penicillin (OR = 2.12, 95% CI = 1.39-3.25, p = 0.001) or first-generation cephalosporins (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.01-3.00, p = 0.048). Previous consultation with an infectious diseases (ID) specialist had a protective effect against inappropriate prescription (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.24-0.50, p < 0.001). Factors independently associated with specific prescription errors varied. However, consultation with an ID specialist was protective against both unnecessary antimicrobial use (OR = 0.04, 95% CI = 0.01-0.26, p = 0.001) and requests for agents with insufficient spectrum (OR = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.03-0.30, p = 0.01). In conclusion, the analysis of factors predictive of inappropriateness in antimicrobial prescription allowed us to identify issues requiring intervention. Also, it provided a positive feedback of the ASP efficacy, demonstrating the importance of previous consultation with an ID specialist to assure the quality of antimicrobial prescriptions.

Changes in luteinizing hormone secretion after estradiol treatment in prepubertal Nelore heifers

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Power law distribution in education: University entrance examination

We studied the statistical distribution of candidate's performance which is measured through their marks in university entrance examination (Vestibular) of UNESP (Universidade Estadual Paulista) for years 1998, 1999, and 2000. All students are divided in three groups: Physical, Biological and Humanities. We paid special attention to the examination of Portuguese language which is common for all and examinations for the particular area. We observed long ubiquitous power law tails in Physical and Biological sciences. This indicate the presence of strong positive feedback in sciences. We are able to explain completely these statistical distributions through Gradually Truncated Power law distributions which we developed recently to explain statistical behavior of financial market. The statistical distribution in case of Portuguese language and humanities is close to normal distribution. We discuss the possible reason for this peculiar behavior.

The impact of structural reforms on growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: an empirical estimation

Includes bibliography