Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

A landscape-level assessment of Asian elephant habitat, its population and elephant-human conflict in the Anamalai hill ranges of southern Western Ghats, India

Spatial information at the landscape scale is extremely important for conservation planning, especially in the case of long-ranging vertebrates. The biodiversity-rich Anamalai hill ranges in the Western Ghats of southern India hold a viable population for the long-term conservation of the Asian elephant. Through rapid but extensive field surveys we mapped elephant habitat, corridors, vegetation and land-use patterns, estimated the elephant population density and structure, and assessed elephant-human conflict across this landscape. GIS and remote sensing analyses indicate that elephants are distributed among three blocks over a total area of about 4600 km(2). Approximately 92% remains contiguous because of four corridors; however, under 4000 km2 of this area may be effectively used by elephants. Nine landscape elements were identified, including five natural vegetation types, of which tropical moist deciduous forest is dominant. Population density assessed through the dung count method using line transects covering 275 km of walk across the effective elephant habitat of the landscape yielded a mean density of 1.1 (95% Cl = 0.99-1.2) elephant/km(2). Population structure from direct sighting of elephants showed that adult male elephants constitute just 2.9% and adult females 42.3% of the population with the rest being subadults (27.4%), juveniles (16%) and calves (11.4%). Sex ratios show an increasing skew toward females from juvenile (1:1.8) to sub-adult (1:2.4) and adult (1:14.7) indicating higher mortality of sub-adult and adult males that is most likely due to historical poaching for ivory. A rapid questionnaire survey and secondary data on elephant-human conflict from forest department records reveals that villages in and around the forest divisions on the eastern side of landscape experience higher levels of elephant-human conflict than those on the western side; this seems to relate to a greater degree of habitat fragmentation and percentage farmers cultivating annual crops in the east. We provide several recommendations that could help maintain population viability and reduce elephant-human conflict of the Anamalai elephant landscape. (C) 2013 Deutsche Gesellschaft far Saugetierkunde. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms implied in Escherichia coli removal during wastewater treatment

Poster presentado 12th Symposium on Aquatic Microbial Ecology (SAME12) August 28 – September 02, 2011 Germany , Rostock–Warnemünde

Effects of density-dependence and sea surface temperature on interannual variation in length-at-age of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the Kuroshio-Oyashio area during 1970–1997

Annual mean fork length (FL) of the Pacific stock of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) was examined for the period of 1970–97. Fork length at age 0 (6 months old) was negatively correlated with year-class strength which fluctuated between 0.2 and 14 billion in number for age-0 fish. Total stock biomass was correlated with FL at age but was not a significant factor. Sea surface temperature (SST) between 38–40°N and 141–143°E during April–June was also negatively correlated with FL at age 0. A modified von Bertalanffy growth model that incorporated the effects of population density and SST on growth was well fitted to the observed FL at ages. The relative FL at age 0 for any given year class was maintained throughout the life span. The variability in size at age in the Pacific stock of chub mackerel is largely attributable to growth during the first six months after hatching.

川西亚高山人工针叶林下11种植物对两种光生境的适应性研究

青藏高原东缘的亚高山针叶林是长江上游重要的生态屏障，经过近六十年的采伐后，取而代之的是大量人工种植的云杉纯林。目前，这些人工林已经表现出树种单一，结构层次简单等生态问题，其物种多样性及生态效益与同地带天然林相比差距较明显。如何丰富该地区物种多样性，完善人工林生态系统的生态功能是一个十分重要的课题。林下植物是人工林群落的重要组成部分，对维持群落的生物多样性及完善生态系统功能具有明显的作用。因此，研究该地区人工针叶林的林下植被对不同生境的适应性对于理解人工林生态系统物种多样性的形成和维持机制都具有重要的意义。 本文以青藏高原东部亚高山针叶林的主要森林类型----云杉人工林为研究对象，选择林下11种具有不同喜光特性的常见植物，分别设置人工林林冠下及成熟林窗为研究样地，通过对各种植物叶片形态与物质分配特征、叶片解剖学特征、叶片光合生理特性、植物自然分布特征等方面的比较分析，研究林下植物对不同光生境的适应策略及其适应能力，揭示不同物种对人工林生境的适应共性，为西南亚高山地区植被恢复及人工林的经营管理提供科学依据。具体研究结果如下： 在叶片形态和物质分配特征方面：在林窗光生境中，11种林下植物叶片比叶重(LMA)显著高于林下光生境的同种植物。同时，林窗下生长的植物叶片叶片厚度及栅栏细胞长度显著增加，这是影响叶片比叶重变化的直接原因。而多数植物叶重比在两种生境中无明显变化。说明在长期适应自然生境之后，植物可能更多地采取调节叶片组织细胞水平（即叶片功能细胞形态）及叶片器官水平（即单个叶片形态）特征的策略来适应各类生境，而非整株水平上的叶片总比重的增减。 在叶片解剖结构特征方面：多数阔叶物种栅栏组织厚度(PT)、栅栏组织厚度/海绵组织厚度(PT/ST)、栅栏细胞层数及近半数种的气孔密度(SD)在林窗生境中更大或更多，而叶片表皮细胞厚度(UET、LET)气孔长径(SL)及海绵组织厚度(ST)受两种生境影响不大。喜光特性相似的物种在生境适应策略上具有一定的趋同性。 在光合生理特征方面：在林窗生境中多数种植物的最大光合速率(Amax)、暗呼吸速率(Rd)及喜光植物光补偿点(LCP)显著或极显著高于林内生境同种植物。且在同一生境条件下，多数深度耐荫植物比喜光及轻度喜光植物有稍低的Rd和LCP。各植物在林内低光生境中具有更大的内禀光能转化效率，并在中午12:00～14:00之间光强最大的时刻发生了的最深程度的光抑制。多数种能通过调节自身某种光合素含量或色素之间的比例来适应不同的光生境，即通过增加叶绿素含量或降低Chla/b值来适应林内弱光生境，通过提高类胡萝卜素含量或单位叶绿素的类胡萝卜素含量降低强光带来的伤害。绝大多数物种并不采取调节叶片C、N含量的策略来适应不同的光生境。总之，植物部分光合参数(Amax、Rd、LCP)受生境的影响与其自身喜光特性有关，但另一些参数（Fv/Fm日变化、色素含量及比例、叶氮相对含量）受生境影响与其自身喜光特性无明显关联。 在表型可塑性方面：在叶片各表型参数中，器官水平及细胞水平的形态特征参数平均可塑性大于整株水平形态和物质分配特征参数可塑性；叶片光合组织的可塑性大于非光合组织可塑性；反映植物光合能力的参数可塑性大于叶片色素含量参数可塑性。植物叶片形态和物质分配、解剖学特征参数平均可塑性大小与其自身喜光特性基本吻合，即喜光种及轻度耐荫种各参数可塑性最高，深度耐荫种可塑性最小，而这种规律并未在光合生理参数的可塑性大小上体现出来。但是叶片形态和物质分配参数、光合生理参数的平均可塑性水平却大于叶片解剖学参数。 在植物自然分布特征方面：喜光物种云杉幼苗及歪头菜在林内生境中分布密度明显降低，深度耐荫种疏花槭却恰恰相反，更多数物种（7种植物）在两种生境中密度变化趋势不明显。从分布格局来看，7种植物在两种生境中均为聚集分布，但聚集强度为林窗>林内；少数物种桦叶荚迷、直穗小檗、冰川茶藨、黄背勾儿茶在林窗中为聚集型，在林内生境中的分布型发生改变而成为随机型，说明光生境的差异能影响到植物种群的分布特征。但这种影响程度与植物自身的喜光特性无关，同时与各物种叶片表型平均可塑性的大小也无明显关联。 The subalpine coniferous forest area in eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is important ecology-barrier of upriver Yangtze. In past sixty years, those forests had been cut down and replaced with a lot of spruce plantations. At now, there are many ecology problems presenting to us such as singleness species, simple configuration, lower species diversity and ecological benefit than natural forests at the same belt. How to restore the species diversity and enhance the eco-function of the plantations is a very important issue. The understory plants are important part of plantation community, which improved the bio-diversity and eco-function distinctly of forests. So, it is very significance to study the adaptation of understory plants to different environment in plantation, and this study would helping us to understand how plantations to develop and remain their biodiversity. This study was conducted in a 60a spruce plantation in Miyaluo located in western Sichuan, China, and spruce plantation is major types of subalpine coniferous forest in eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, the leaf morphological and biomass-distributed characteristics, the anatomical characteristics, the photosynthetic characteristics and the distribution patterns characteristics of eleven different light-requirement understory species grown in two different environments (forest gaps and underneath close canopy) were studied and compared. The purpose of this study was to analyze the adaptation of this forest understory plants, to show up the commonness of these different light-requirement understory species in light acclimation, and to provide some scientific reference to manage and restore the vegetation of subalpine plantation of southwest China. The results were as follows: The leaf morphological and biomass-distributed characteristics: These eleven species in forest gaps had significantly higher dry weight per leaf area (LMA) than those under close canopy. The palisade parenchyma cells of the broad-leaved species in gaps were significantly longer than those grown under the canopy, which been a directed factor for the change of leaf mass per unit area (LMA) in different environment. But the leaf weight ratio (LWR) of most plants species were not evidently changed by the contrasted environments in our study. It was shown the morphological characteristics changing been adopted as a strategy of light acclimation for plants wasn’t on whole plant level (leaf weight ratio) but cellular level (the function cells morphological characteristics) and organic level (the leaf morphological and biomass-distributed characteristics) mostly. The leaf anatomical characteristics: Most broad-leaved plants in gaps increased palisade parenchyma thickness (PT), the palisade parenchyma cell layers and the ratio of palisade to spongy parenchyma (PT/ST). So did as almost about half species in this study in stomatal density (SD). No significant differences in thickness of leaf epidermal cells (UET, LET), stomatal length (SL) and spongy parenchyma (ST) between two environments of most species were observed. The results suggested that species with light-requirement approximately had convergent evolution on adaptation to light condition. The leaf photosynthetic characteristics: The dark respiration rate (Rd) of most plants species, the light compensation point (LCP) of light-demanding plants species in gaps were significantly increased than under close canopy in this study. In a same habitat, most deep-shade-tolerant plants had lower Rd and LCP than those light-demanding plants and slight-shade-tolerant plants. Each species has bigger inherent electron transport rate under close canopy than in gaps, and the greatest photoinhibition happened during 12 to 14 in the daytime. Most species could adapt different light environment by the way of changing their photosynthetic pigments content or the ratio of pigments content. For example, some plants under close canopy increased chlorophyll (Chl) or reduced the values of the ratio Chla/b to adapted the low light condition, some plants in gaps increased carotenoid (Car) or reduced the weight ratio CarChl to avoid been hurt in high light. For most plants, changing the content of C and N in leaf wasn’t a strategy of light acclimation. In conclusion, the variation of some leaf photosynthetic parameters in different light environment such as Fv/Fm, pigments, C and N in leaf related with the light-requirmnet of species, but the others such as Amax, Rd, LCP did not. The leaf plasticity indexes: Among those leaf plasticity indexes, the leaf morphological and biomass-distributed parameters on cellular and organic level were greater than on whole plant level for same species, and the photosynthetic parenchyma parameters were greater than non-photosynthetic parenchyma parameters in same leaf, and photosynthetic capability parameters were greater than photosynthetic pigments content parameters for same species. The average plasticity indexes of leaf morphological and biomass-distributed and anatomical parameters were accordant with plants’ light-requirement approximately: those light-demanding plants and slight-shade-tolerant plants had bigger plasticity indexes than deep-shade-tolerant plants. But this regular wasn’t observed in physiological plasticity indexes for most plants, though the average leaf plasticity indexes of leaf morphological and biomass-distributed, photosynthetic characteristics parameters was greater than the anatomical characteristics parameters. The distribution patterns characteristics: Oppositely to the deep-shade-tolerant specie Acer laxiflorum Pax., the density of light-demanding species Picea asperata Mast. and Vicia unijuga A. Br. in gaps was bigger than under close canopy. Each of the other species has the approximately density in two different environment. The spatial patterns of seven species were aggregated distribution in two environments, but the trend of aggregation of population under close canopy was decrease from in gaps. A few species such as Viburnum betulifoium Batal., Berberis dasystachya Maxim., Ribes glaciale Wall. and Berchemia flavescens Brongn. were aggregated distribution in gaps while random distribution under close canopy. It was shown that the difference between two light environments could affect the distribution pattern of plant population, and the effect didn’t relate with the light-requirement or plasticity indexes of species.

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF LAND-USE CHANGE AND ANALYSES OF DRIVING FORCES IN NORTHEASTERN CHINA DURING 1990-2000

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. Supported by the dynamic serving system of national resources, including both the environment database and GIS technology, this paper analyzed the land-use change in northeastern China in the past ten years (1990 - 2000). It divides northeastern China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree (DD) of land-use: woodland/grassland - arable land conversion zone, dry land - paddy field conversion zone, urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing, and reclamation and abandoned zone. In the past ten years, land-use change of northeastern China can be generalized as follows: increase of cropland area was obvious, paddy field and dry land increased by 74. 9 and 276. 0 thousand ha respectively; urban area expanded rapidly, area of town and rural residence increased by 76. 8 thousand ha; area of forest and grassland decreased sharply with the amount of 1399. 0 and 1521. 3 thousand ha respectively; area of water body and unused land increased by 148. 4 and 513. 9 thousand ha respectively. Besides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial patterns of land use, this paper also discusses the driving forces in each land-use dynamic zones. The study shows that some key biophysical factors affect conspicuously the conversion of different land- use types. In this paper, the relationships between land- use conversion and DEM, accnmlated temperature(>= 10 degrees C) and precipitation were analysed and represented. We conclude that the land- use changes in northeast China resulted from the change of macro social and economic factors and local physical elements. Rapid population growth and management changes, in some sense, can explain the shaping of woodland/grassland - cropland conversion zone. The conversion from dry land to paddy field in the dry land - paddy field conversion zone, apart from the physical elements change promoting the expansion of paddy field, results from two reasons: one is that the implementation of market-economy in China has given farmers the right to decide what they plant and how they plant their crops, the other factor is originated partially from the change of dietary habit with the social and economic development. The conversion from paddy field to dry land is caused primarily by the shortfall of irrigation water, which in turn is caused by poor water allocation managed by local governments. The shaping of the reclamation and abandoned zone is partially due to the lack of environment protection consciousness among pioneer settlers. The reason for the conversion from grassland to cropland is the relatively higher profits of fanning than that of pasturing in the interlocked zone of farming and pasturing. In northeastern China, the rapid expansion of built-up areas results from two factors: the first is its small number of towns; the second comes from the huge potential for expansion of existing towns and cities. It is noticeable that urban expansion in the northeastern China is characterized by gentle topographic relief and low population density. Physiognomy, transportation and economy exert great influences on the urban expansion.

The regional types of China's floating population: Identification methods and spatial patterns

With the rapid increase of the number and influence of floating population in China, it is urgently needed to understand the regional types of China's floating population and their spatial characteristics. After reviewing the current methods for identifying regional types of floating population, this paper puts forward a new composite-index identification method and its modification version which is consisted of two indexes of the net migration rate and gross migration rate. Then, the traditional single-index and the new composite-index identification methods are empirically tested to explore their spatial patterns and characteristics by using China's 2000 census data at county level. The results show: (1) The composite-index identification method is much better than traditional single-index method because it can measure the migration direction and scale of floating simultaneously, and in particular it can identify the unique regional types of floating population with large scale of immigration and emigration. (2) The modified composite-index identification method, by using the share of a region's certain type of floating population to the total in China as weights, can effectively correct the over- or under-estimated errors due to the rather large or small total population of a region. (3) The spatial patterns of different regional types of China's floating population are closely related to the regional differentiation of their natural environment, population density and socio-economic development level. The three active regional types of floating population are mainly located in the eastern part of China with lower elevation, more than 800 mm precipitation, rather higher population densities and economic development levels.

Cultivares de soja 1999.

1999

Biomonitoring of air pollutants by using lichens (Evernia prunastri) in areas between Kenitra and Mohammedia cities in Morocco.

In this study, Evernia prunastri, a lichen growing in its natural habitat in Morocco was analysed for the concentration of five heavy metals (Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu and Cr) from eleven sites between Kenitra and Mohammedia cities. The control site was Dar Essalam, an isolated area with low traffic density and dense vegetation. In the investigated areas, the concentration of heavy metals was correlated with vehicular traffic, industrial activity and urbanization. The total metal concentration was highest in Sidi Yahya, followed by Mohammedia and Bouznika. The coefficient of variation was higher for Pb and lower for Cu, Zn and Fe. The concentrations of most heavy metals in the thalli differed significantly between sites (p<0.01). Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed a significant correlation between heavy metal accumulation and atmospheric purity index. This study demonstrated also that the factors most strongly affecting the lichen flora were traffic density, the petroleum industry and paper factories in these areas. Overall, these results suggest that the index of atmospheric purity and assessment of heavy metals in lichen thalli are good indicators of the air quality at the studied sites.

Area factors and suicide: 5-year follow-up of the Northern Ireland population

Background: Suicide rates vary markedly between areas but it is unclear whether this is due to differences in population composition or to contextual factors operating at an area level.
Aims: To determine if area factors are independently related to suicide risk after adjustment for individual and family characteristics.
Method: A 5-year record linkage study was conducted of 1 116 748 non-institutionalised individuals aged 16-74 years, enumerated at the 2001 Northern Ireland census.
Results: The cohort experienced 566 suicides during follow-up. Suicide risks were lowest for women and for those who were married or cohabiting. Indicators of individual and household disadvantage and economic and health status at the time of the census were also strongly related to risk of suicide. The higher rates of suicide in the more deprived and socially fragmented areas disappeared after adjustment for individual and household factors. There was no significant relationship between population density and risk of suicide.
Conclusions: Differences in rates of suicide between areas are predominantly due to population characteristics rather than to area-level factors, which suggests that policies targeted at area-level factors are unlikely to significantly influence suicides rates.

Density-dependent prophylaxis and condition-dependent immune function in Lepidopteran larvae: a multivariate approach

1. The risk of parasitism and infectious disease is expected to increase with population density as a consequence of positive density-dependent transmission rates. Therefore, species that encounter large fluctuations in population density are predicted to exhibit plasticity in their immune system, such that investment in costly immune defences is adjusted to match the probability of exposure to parasites and pathogens (i.e. density-dependent prophylaxis).

Temperature, predator-prey interaction strength and population stability

Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here, we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data, we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally, we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups, warming increased metabolic rates substantially, whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly, the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand, it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability, meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand, decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally, predicted long-term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming, which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations, i.e., a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together, these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator-prey interactions and food-web stability.

A quorum-quenching approach to investigate the conservation of quorum-sensing-regulated functions within the Burkholderia cepacia complex

Taxonomic studies of the past few years have shown that the Burkholderia cepacia complex, a heterogeneous group of B. cepacia-like organisms, consists of at least nine species. B. cepacia complex strains are ubiquitously distributed in nature and have been used for biocontrol, bioremediation, and plant growth promotion purposes. At the same time, B. cepacia complex strains have emerged as important opportunistic pathogens of humans, particularly those with cystic fibrosis. All B. cepacia complex species investigated thus far use quorum-sensing (QS) systems that rely on N-acylhomoserine lactone (AHL) signal molecules to express certain functions, including the production of extracellular proteases, swarming motility, biofilm formation, and pathogenicity, in a population-density-dependent manner. In this study we constructed a broad-host-range plasmid that allowed the heterologous expression of the Bacillus sp. strain 240B1 AiiA lactonase, which hydrolyzes the lactone ring of various AHL signal molecules, in all described B. cepacia complex species. We show that expression of AiiA abolished or greatly reduced the accumulation of AHL molecules in the culture supernatants of all tested B. cepacia complex strains. Phenotypic characterization of wild-type and transgenic strains revealed that protease production, swarming motility, biofilm formation, and Caenorhabditis elegans killing efficiency was regulated by AHL in the large majority of strains investigated.

Population enumeration and assessing conservation status in a widespread amphibian: A case study of Rana temporaria in Ireland

Global amphibian declines are a major element of the current biodiversity crisis. Monitoring changes in the distribution and abundance of target species is a basic component in conservation decision making and requires robust and repeatable sampling. For EU member states, surveillance of designated species, including the common frog Rana temporaria, is a formal requirement of the 'EC Habitats & Species Directive'. We deployed established methods for estimating frog population density at local water bodies and extrapolated these to the national and ecoregion scale. Spawn occurred at 49.4% of water bodies and 70.1% of independent 500-m survey squares. Using spawn mat area, we estimated the number of adult breeding females and subsequently the total population assuming a sex ratio of 1:1. A negative binomial model suggested that mean frog density was 23.5 frogsha [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.9-44.0] equating to 196M frogs (95%CI 124M-367M) throughout Ireland. A total of 86% of frogs bred in drainage ditches, which were a notably common feature of the landscape. The recorded distribution of the species did not change significantly between the last Article 17 reporting period (1993-2006) and the current period (2007-2011) throughout the Republic of Ireland. Recording effort was markedly lower in Northern Ireland, which led to an apparent decline in the recorded distribution. We highlight the need to coordinate biological surveys between adjacent political jurisdictions that share a common ecoregion to avoid apparent disparities in the quality of distributional information. Power analysis suggested that a reduced sample of 40-50 survey squares is sufficient to detect a 30% decline (consistent with the International Union for Conservation of Nature Category of 'Vulnerable') at 80% power providing guidance for minimizing future survey effort. Our results provin assessments for R. temporaria and other clump-spawning amphibians. 2013 The Zoological Society of London.