Growth and Inequality : A study of Swedish municipalities

This paper explores the relationship between the growth rate of the average income and income inequality using data at the municipal level in Sweden for the period 1992-2007. We estimate a fixed effects panel data growth model where the within-municipality income inequality is one of the explanatory variables. Different inequality measures (Gini coefficient, top income shares, and measures of inequality in the lower and upper ends of the income distribution) are also examined. We find a positive and significant relationship between income growth and income inequality, measured as the Gini coefficient and top income shares, respectively. In addition, while inequality at the upper end of the income distribution is positively associated with the income growth rate, inequality at the lower end of the income distribution seems to be negatively related to the growth rate. Our findings also suggest that increased income inequality enhances growth more in municipalities with a high level of average income than in those with a low level of average income.

Essays on regulatory risk issues

Most studies around that try to verify the existence of regulatory risk look mainly at developed countries. Looking at regulatory risk in emerging market regulated sectors is no less important to improving and increasing investment in those markets. This thesis comprises three papers comprising regulatory risk issues. In the first Paper I check whether CAPM betas capture information on regulatory risk by using a two-step procedure. In the first step I run Kalman Filter estimates and then use these estimated betas as inputs in a Random-Effect panel data model. I find evidence of regulatory risk in electricity, telecommunications and all regulated sectors in Brazil. I find further evidence that regulatory changes in the country either do not reduce or even increase the betas of the regulated sectors, going in the opposite direction to the buffering hypothesis as proposed by Peltzman (1976). In the second Paper I check whether CAPM alphas say something about regulatory risk. I investigate a methodology similar to those used by some regulatory agencies around the world like the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) that incorporates a specific component of regulatory risk in setting tariffs for regulated sectors. I find using SUR estimates negative and significant alphas for all regulated sectors especially the electricity and telecommunications sectors. This runs in the face of theory that predicts alphas that are not statistically different from zero. I suspect that the significant alphas are related to misspecifications in the traditional CAPM that fail to capture true regulatory risk factors. On of the reasons is that CAPM does not consider factors that are proven to have significant effects on asset pricing, such as Fama and French size (ME) and price-to-book value (ME/BE). In the third Paper, I use two additional factors as controls in the estimation of alphas, and the results are similar. Nevertheless, I find evidence that the negative alphas may be the result of the regulated sectors premiums associated with the three Fama and French factors, particularly the market risk premium. When taken together, ME and ME/BE regulated sectors diminish the statistical significance of market factors premiums, especially for the electricity sector. This show how important is the inclusion of these factors, which unfortunately is scarce in emerging markets like Brazil.

Sanitation and health: empirical evidence for Brazilian municipalities

The relationship between sanitation policies (access and quality) and health in Brazilian municipalities was estimated from 2003 to 2010 using a panel data model with corrections for missing data. The results suggest a limited effect of sanitation policy on health. Compared with results from the literature, we found that the worsening quality of water appears to be associated with increased rates of mortality and hospitalization for children up to one month of age. Improvements in sewage sanitation have reduced the mortality and morbidity rates in children aged one to four. Improved access to piped water is associated with decreased hospitalization related to dysentery and acute respiratory infections (ARI) and does not have an effect on child mortality. Finally, epidemiological transition is only supported by weak evidence, including a more intense effect of reduced access to sanitation in municipalities with the worst mortality and morbidity indicators. In most models, this theory has been rejected

Avaliação de impacto do Programa de Modernização Tributária e da Gestão dos Setores Sociais Básicos (PMAT) na arrecadação de ISSQN e IPTU dos municípios, no período de 1999 a 2011

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o impacto do Programa de Modernização da Administração Tributária e da Gestão dos Setores Sociais Básicos (PMAT), gerido pelo Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES), na arrecadação tributária dos Municípios, no período de 1999 a 2011. Para tanto, utilizamos um modelo econométrico de dados em painel com estimador de efeitos fixos. As variáveis dependentes são os logs da arrecadação de ISSQN e IPTU, as variáveis explicativas são os desembolsos do BNDES e o PIB municipal desagregado. Realizamos regressões com dummies de tratamento e com o log dos desembolsos. Além realizar regressões com toda a amostra disponível, delimitamos a amostra do grupo de controle em dois subgrupos para tentar eliminar efeitos de tendências entre entidades. A primeira delimitação foi utilizar a amostra que realizou consultas ao banco de fomento e não obteve sucesso. A segunda delimitação foi a de municípios que possuem proximidade geográfica daqueles comtemplados pelo financiamento. Os resultados encontrados demonstram não haver significância estatística entre desembolsos realizados pelo BNDES e a trajetória da arrecadação dos tributos em análise na maior parte dos modelos utilizados. Apenas nas regressões com dados da amostra que realizou consulta ao BNDES, obteve-se significância estatística, ao nível de 5% para o tributo IPTU, no efeito acumulado ao longo do tempo.

The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

Topics in Local Economic Development

This thesis contributes to the current debate in literature about local economic development by considering two different topics: quality of institutions, and the role of clusters in innovation and productivity growth. The research is built upon three papers. The first paper deals with the analysis of the effect of administrative continuity on administrative efficiency. The analysis underlines the importance of different typologies of social capital. Findings reveal a positive impact on administrative efficiency (AE) by administrative continuity (AC) when it is coupled by bridging and linking social capital. On the contrary, bonding social capital influences negatively the effect by AC on AE. The second paper investigates the spatial interaction in levels of quality of government (QoG) among European regions. Notwithstanding the largely recognised role by institutions in the design of regional policies, no study has been conducted about the mechanisms of interaction and diffusion of QoG at regional level. This research wants to overcome this knowledge gap in literature. Findings reveal a heterogeneity in spatial interaction among groups of regions, i.e. ‘leader regions’ (Northern regions) and ‘lagging regions’ (Southern regions), when considering different mechanisms of interaction (learning / imitating competition and pure competition). Moreover, the effect of wealth on the levels of QoG is nonlinear. Finally, the third paper analyses the relation among specialization and productivity within the agricultural sector. In literature, the study of clusters dynamics has long neglected agriculture. The analysis describes the changes in sectorial specialization for eight main crop groups in Italian regions (NUTS 3), assessing the existence of spatial autocorrelations by using an exploratory data analysis. Furthermore, the effect of specialization on productivity is analysed within the main crop groups using a spatial panel data model. Findings reveal a marked tendency to specialization in the Italian agriculture, and a heterogeneous effect by specialization on productivity.

The Returns to Migration: The Influence of Education and Migration Type

We show the impact of migration type on real wages over time. We create a migration and earnings history from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth over the period 1979-2002. We estimate the effects of primary, onward, and two types of return migration on real wages using a panel data model with individual, location, and time fixed effects. Panel data are well suited for the study of the returns to U.S. internal migration because the influence of migration on wages has been found to occur years after the event. We differentiate return migration into two types: return to a location with ties that form a geographical anchor (home) and return to a prior place of work. We find that real wage growth varies by migration type. Education attainment is a significant factor in real wage growth. Our results show that onward migration is an important channel by which the monetary rewards to a college education are manifested.

Relationship between dietary patterns and body mass index in Hispanic children ages 4--19 years of age

Background. In over 30 years, the prevalence of overweight for children and adolescents has increased across the United States (Barlow et al., 2007; Ogden, Flegal, Carroll, & Johnson, 2002). Childhood obesity is linked with adverse physiological and psychological issues in youth and affects ethnic/minority populations in disproportionate rates (Barlow et al., 2007; Butte et al., 2006; Butte, Cai, Cole, Wilson, Fisher, Zakeri, Ellis, & Comuzzie, 2007). More importantly, overweight in children and youth tends to track into adulthood (McNaughton, Ball, Mishra, & Crawford, 2008; Ogden et al., 2002). Childhood obesity affects body functions such as the cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal, and endocrine systems, including emotional health (Barlow et al., 2007, Ogden et al., 2002). Several dietary factors have been associated with the development of obesity in children; however, these factors have not been fully elucidated, especially in ethnic/minority children. In particular, few studies have been done to determine the effects of different meal patterns on the development of obesity in children. Purpose. The purpose of the study is to examine the relationships between daily proportions of energy consumed and energy derived from fat across breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snack, and obesity among Hispanic children and adolescents. Methods. A cross-sectional design was used to evaluate the relationship between dietary patterns and overweight status in Hispanic children and adolescents 4-19 years of age who participated in the Viva La Familia Study. The goal of the Viva La Familia Study was to evaluate genetic and environmental factors affecting childhood obesity and its co-morbidities in the Hispanic population (Butte et al., 2006, 2007). The study enrolled 1030 Hispanic children and adolescents from 319 families and examined factors related to increased body weight by focusing on a multilevel analysis of extensive sociodemographic, genetic, metabolic, and behavioral data. Baseline dietary intakes of the children were collected using 24-hour recalls, and body mass index was calculated from measured height and weight, and classified using the CDC standards. Dietary data were analyzed using a GEE population-averaged panel-data model with a cluster variable family identifier to include possible correlations within related data sets. A linear regression model was used to analyze associations of dietary patterns using possible covariates, and to examine the percentage of daily energy coming from breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snack while adjusting for age, sex, and BMI z-score. Random-effects logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship of the dietary variables with obesity status and to understand if the percent energy intake (%EI) derived from fat from all meals (breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snacks) affected obesity. Results. Older children (age 4-19 years) consumed a higher percent of energy at lunch and dinner and less percent energy from snacks compared to younger children. Age was significantly associated with percentage of total energy intake (%TEI) for lunch, as well as dinner, while no association was found by gender. Percent of energy consumed from dinner significantly differed by obesity status, with obese children consuming more energy at dinner (p = 0.03), but no associations were found between percent energy from fat and obesity across all meals. Conclusions. Information from this study can be used to develop interventions that target dietary intake patterns in obesity prevention programs for Hispanic children and adolescents. In particular, intervention programs for children should target dietary patterns with energy intake that is spread throughout the day and earlier in the day. These results indicate that a longitudinal study should be used to further explore the relationship of dietary patterns and BMI in this and other populations (Dubois et al., 2008; Rodriquez & Moreno, 2006; Thompson et al., 2005; Wilson et al., in review, 2008). ^

Sustainability, Resource Efficiency and Competitiveness. An Assessment of Resource Efficiency Policies in the European Union. Bruges European Economic Research Papers (BEER) 32/2015.

Addressing high and volatile natural resource prices, uncertain supply prospects, reindustrialization attempts and environmental damages related to resource use, resource efficiency has evolved into a highly debated proposal among academia, policy makers, firms and international financial institutions (IFIs). In 2011, the European Union (EU) declared resource efficiency as one of its seven flagship initiatives in its Europe 2020 strategy. This paper contributes to the discussions by assessing its key initiative, the Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe (EC 2011 571), following two streams of evaluation. In a first step, resource efficiency is linked to two theoretical frameworks regarding sustainability, (i) the sustainability triangle (consisting of economic, social and ecological dimensions) and (ii) balanced sustainability (combining weak and strong sustainability). Subsequently, both sustainability frameworks are used to assess to which degree the Roadmap follows the concept of sustainability. It can be concluded that it partially respects the sustainability triangle as well as balanced sustainability, primarily lacking a social dimension. In a second step, following Steger and Bleischwitz (2009), the impact of resource efficiency on competitiveness as advocated in the Roadmap is empirically evaluated. Using an Arellano–Bond dynamic panel data model reveals no robust impact of resource efficiency on competiveness in the EU between 2004 and 2009 – a puzzling result. Further empirical research and enhanced data availability are needed to better understand the impacts of resource efficiency on competitiveness on the macroeconomic, microeconomic and industry level. In that regard, strengthening the methodologies of resource indicators seem essential. Last but certainly not least, political will is required to achieve the transition of the EU-economy into a resource efficient future.

State Aid to Infrastructure: Do Competitively Selected Operators Obtain an Undue Advantage? Bruges European Economic Research Papers (BEER) 33/2015

Addressing high and volatile natural resource prices, uncertain supply prospects, reindustrialization attempts and environmental damages related to resource use, resource efficiency has evolved into a highly debated proposal among academia, policy makers, firms and international financial institutions (IFIs). In 2011, the European Union (EU) declared resource efficiency as one of its seven flagship initiatives in its Europe 2020 strategy. This paper contributes to the discussions by assessing its key initiative, the Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe (EC 2011 571), following two streams of evaluation. In a first step, resource efficiency is linked to two theoretical frameworks regarding sustainability, (i) the sustainability triangle (consisting of economic, social and ecological dimensions) and (ii) balanced sustainability (combining weak and strong sustainability). Subsequently, both sustainability frameworks are used to assess to which degree the Roadmap follows the concept of sustainability. It can be concluded that it partially respects the sustainability triangle as well as balanced sustainability, primarily lacking a social dimension. In a second step, following Steger and Bleischwitz (2009), the impact of resource efficiency on competitiveness as advocated in the Roadmap is empirically evaluated. Using an Arellano–Bond dynamic panel data model reveals no robust impact of resource efficiency on competiveness in the EU between 2004 and 2009 – a puzzling result. Further empirical research and enhanced data availability are needed to better understand the impacts of resource efficiency on competitiveness on the macroeconomic, microeconomic and industry level. In that regard, strengthening the methodologies of resource indicators seem essential. Last but certainly not least, political will is required to achieve the transition of the EU-economy into a resource efficient future.

Regional foreign direct investment and wage spillovers:plant level evidence from the UK electronics industry

This paper examines the extent to which foreign investment in the UK generates wage spillovers in the domestic sector of the economy using a simultaneous dynamic panel data model and focusing on the electronics sector, possibly the most ‘globalized’ sector of UK manufacturing. It finds evidence that the higher wages paid by foreign firms cause wages in the domestic sector to be bid up. This phenomenon is, however, largely confined to the region where foreign direct investment takes place.

Do external funds yield lower returns? Recent evidence from East Asian economies

One of the central explanations of the recent Asian Crisis has been the problem of moral hazard as the source of over-investment and excessive external borrowing. There is however rather limited firm-level empirical evidence to characterise inefficient use of internal and external finances. Using a large firm-level panel data-set from four badly affected Asian countries, this paper compares the rates of return to various internal and external funds among firms with low and high debt financing (relative to equity) among financially constrained and other firms. Selectivity-corrected estimates obtained from random effects panel data model do suggest evidence of significantly lower rates of return to long-term debt, even among firms relying more on debt relative to equity in our sample. There is also evidence that average effective interest rates often significantly exceeded the average returns to long-term debt in the sample countries in the pre-crisis period. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determinantes da sustentabilidade financeira em diversos níveis de governo

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, 18 de Julho de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.