997 resultados para Organizational forecasting


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This paper examines the effect of superstars on external stakeholders’ organizational identification through the lens of sport. Drawing on social identity theory and the concept of organizational identification, as well as on role model theories and superstar economics, several hypotheses are developed regarding the influence of soccer stars on their fans’ degree of team identification. Using a proprietary data set that combines archival data on professional German soccer players and clubs with survey data on more than 1,400 soccer fans, this study finds evidence for a positive effect of superstar characteristics and role model perception. Moreover, it is found that players who qualify for the definition of a superstar are more important to fans of established teams than to fans of unsuccessful teams. The player's club tenure, however, seems to have no influence on fans’ team identification. It is further argued that the effect of soccer stars on their fans is comparable to that of executives on external stakeholders, and hence, the results are applied to the business domain. The results of this study contribute to existing research by extending the list of personnel-related determinants of organizational identification.

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Individualization of design is often necessary particularly when designing with people with disabilities. Maker communities, with their flexible Do-It-Yourself (DIY) practices, offer potential to support individualized and cost-effective product design. However, efforts to adapt DIY practices in designing with people with disabilities tend to face difficulties with regard to continuous commitment, infrastructure provision and proper guidance. We carried out interviews with diverse stakeholders in the disability services sector and carried out observations of local makerspaces to understand their current practices and potential for future collaborations. We found that makerspace participants face difficulties in terms of infrastructure provision and proper guidance whereas Disability Service Organizations face difficulties in continuous expertise. We suggest that artful infrastructuring to blend the best of both approaches offers potential to create a sustainable community that can design individualized technologies to support people with disabilities.

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Process improvement and innovation are risky endeavors, like swimming in unknown waters. In this chapter, I will discuss how process innovation through BPM can benefit from Research-as-a-Service, that is, from the application of research concepts in the processes of BPM projects. A further subject will be how innovations can be converted from confidence-based to evidence-based models due to affordances of digital infrastructures such as large-scale enterprise soft-ware or social media. I will introduce the relevant concepts, provide illustrations for digital capabilities that allow for innovation, and share a number of key takeaway lessons for how organizations can innovate on the basis of digital opportunities and principles of evidence-based BPM: the foundation of all process decisions in facts rather than fiction.

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This two-study paper examines the detrimental impact of workgroup mistreatment and the mediating role of perceived rejection. In Study 1, perceived rejection emerged as a mediator between workgroup mistreatment and depression, organization-based self-esteem, organizational deviance, and organizational citizenship behaviors. In Study 2, the role of organizational norms was examined. Employees who experienced supportive organizational norms reported lower levels of perceived rejection, depression and turnover intentions, and higher levels of organization-based self-esteem and job satisfaction. Employees in the supportive norms condition reported that they were more likely to seek reconciliation after experiencing mistreatment than those who experienced low support. Perceived rejection also emerged as a mediator. Results, practical implications, and future research directions are discussed.

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Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

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This paper presents a novel path planning method for minimizing the energy consumption of an autonomous underwater vehicle subjected to time varying ocean disturbances and forecast model uncertainty. The algorithm determines 4-Dimensional path candidates using Nonlinear Robust Model Predictive Control (NRMPC) and solutions optimised using A*-like algorithms. Vehicle performance limits are incorporated into the algorithm with disturbances represented as spatial and temporally varying ocean currents with a bounded uncertainty in their predictions. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated through simulations using a 4-Dimensional, spatially distributed time-series predictive ocean current model. Results show the combined NRMPC and A* approach is capable of generating energy-efficient paths which are resistant to both dynamic disturbances and ocean model uncertainty.

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Over the past decades, universities have increasingly become involved in entrepreneurial activities. Despite efforts to embrace their ‘third mission’, universities still demonstrate great heterogeneity in terms of their involvement in academic entrepreneurship. This papers adopts an institutional perspective to understand how organizational characteristics affect research scientists’ entrepreneurial intentions. Specifically, we study the impact of university culture and climate on entrepreneurial intentions, including intentions to spin off a company, to engage in patenting or licensing and to interact with industry through contract research or consulting. Using a sample of 437 research scientists from Swedish and German universities, our results reveal that the extent to which universities articulate entrepreneurship as a fundamental element of their mission fosters research scientists’ intentions to engage in spin-off creation and intellectual property rights, but not industry-science interaction. Furthermore, the presence of university role models positively affects research scientists’ propensity to engage in entrepreneurial activities, both directly and indirectly through entrepreneurial self-efficacy. Finally, research scientists working at universities which explicitly reward people for ‘third mission’ related output show higher levels of spin-off and patenting or licensing intentions. This study has implications for both academics and practitioners, including university managers and policy makers.

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This study uses the reverse salient methodology to contrast subsystems in video game consoles in order to discover, characterize, and forecast the most significant technology gap. We build on the current methodologies (Performance Gap and Time Gap) for measuring the magnitude of Reverse Salience, by showing the effectiveness of Performance Gap Ratio (PGR). The three subject subsystems in this analysis are the CPU Score, GPU core frequency, and video memory bandwidth. CPU Score is a metric developed for this project, which is the product of the core frequency, number of parallel cores, and instruction size. We measure the Performance Gap of each subsystem against concurrently available PC hardware on the market. Using PGR, we normalize the evolution of these technologies for comparative analysis. The results indicate that while CPU performance has historically been the Reverse Salient, video memory bandwidth has taken over as the quickest growing technology gap in the current generation. Finally, we create a technology forecasting model that shows how much the video RAM bandwidth gap will grow through 2019 should the current trend continue. This analysis can assist console developers in assigning resources to the next generation of platforms, which will ultimately result in longer hardware life cycles.

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Many systemic, complex technologies have been suggested to exhibit increasing returns to adoption, whereby the initial increase in adoption leads to increasing experience with the technology, which drives technological improvements and use, subsequently leading to further adoption. In addition, in the systemic context, mimetic behavior may lend support to increasing returns as technology adoption is witnessed among other agents in the systemic context. Finally, inter-dependencies in the systemic context also sensitize the adoption behavior to fundamental changes in technology provisioning, and this may lend support for the increasing returns type of dynamics in adoption. Our empirical study examines the dynamics of organizational technology adoption when technology is provisioned by organizations in another sub-system in a systemic context. We hypothesize that innovation, imitation, and technological change effects are present in creating increasing returns in the systemic context. Our empirical setting considers 24 technologies represented by 2282 data points in the computer industry. Our results provide support for our prediction that imitation effects are present in creating increasing returns to adoption. We further discuss the managerial and research implications of our results.

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Purpose This study aims to identify factors that facilitate or inhibit middle managers' experience of uncertainty management during organizational change. Design/methodology/approach The approach is qualitative and involved interviews with 40 middle managers from a range of organizations. Findings Analysis revealed that at the pre‐implementation stage, uncertainty focused on the strategic concept of the change, whereas at implementation, uncertainty related to the appropriate procedures to implement. Middle managers’ uncertainty management was found to be important in assisting their employees in the change transition. The factors identified as being either facilitators or barriers to uncertainty management focused on themes related to the design of change, communication with both senior management and their own staff, support from senior management, role conflict, and peer interaction. A model was created to link facilitators and barriers with uncertainty to guide future research. Research limitations/implications Implications for organizational change research along with practical implications are discussed. Originality/value This study provides insight into the positive contributions middle managers can make during change, along with suggesting what factors are facilitators or barriers to this positive role.

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This study examined the role of information, efficacy, and 3 stressors in predicting adjustment to organizational change. Participants were 589 government employees undergoing an 18-month process of regionalization. To examine if the predictor variables had long-term effects on adjustment, the authors assessed psychological well-being, client engagement, and job satisfaction again at a 2-year follow-up. At Time 1, there was evidence to suggest that information was indirectly related to psychological well-being, client engagement, and job satisfaction, via its positive relationship to efficacy. There also was evidence to suggest that efficacy was related to reduced stress appraisals, thereby heightening client engagement. Last, there was consistent support for the stress-buffering role of Time 1 self-efficacy in the prediction of Time 2 job satisfaction.

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This study tested the utility of a stress and coping model of employee adjustment to a merger. Two hundred and twenty employees completed both questionnaires (Time 1: 3 months after merger implementation; Time 2: 2 years later). Structural equation modeling analyses revealed that positive event characteristics predicted greater appraisals of self-efficacy and less stress at Time 1. Self-efficacy, in turn, predicted greater use of problem-focused coping at Time 2, whereas stress predicted a greater use of problem-focused and avoidance coping. Finally, problem-focused coping predicted higher levels of job satisfaction and identification with the merged organization (Time 2), whereas avoidance coping predicted lower identification.

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Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

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This study utilizes a multilevel approach to both estimate the relative importance of individual, subunit, and organization effects on entrepreneurial intentions in academia, as well as to investigate specific factors within the subunit effect and their interactions with other levels. Using a dataset of 2,652 researchers from 386 departments in 24 European universities, our findings reveal that intra-university differences, caused by the influence of the department, should not be ignored when studying academic entrepreneurship. Whereas researchers’ entrepreneurial intentions are mostly influenced by individual differences, department membership explains more variation than the university as a whole. Furthermore, drawing upon organizational culture literature, we identify a department’s adhocracy culture, characterized by flexibility and an external orientation, to be positively related to entrepreneurial intentions. Finally, consistent with trait activation theory, we find that strong adhocracy cultures reinforce the positive association between proactive personality and entrepreneurial intentions. This effect is further intensified when the university also has a technology transfer office with a substantial size. Our results have relevant implications for both academics and practitioners, including university managers, department heads and policy makers.