Essays in Corporate Finance

Prior research has been divided regarding how firms respond to bankruptcy risk, largely revolving around two competing forces. On the one hand, asset substitution encourages firms to increase the riskiness of assets to extract value from creditors. On the other, firms want to minimize bankruptcy risk, either by reducing cash flow risk or through increasing the size of the firm. I test these two theories using a natural experiment of chemicals used in production processes being newly identified as carcinogenic to explore how firms may respond to potential negative cash flow resulting from litigation risk. I use plantlevel chemical data to study firm exposure to risk. I examine how responses between firms of differing levels of chemical exposure may vary within the industry, how firm financial distress affects firm response and whether public and private firms respond differently. In general, my research provides support for the asset substitution theory. My first paper studies how investment response varies based on level of carcinogenic exposure. I find that firms with moderate levels of exposure make efforts to mitigate their cash flow risk and reduce their exposure. At the same time, firms with high levels of exposure increase their exposure and riskiness of future cash flows. These findings are consistent with asset substitution theory. My second paper analyzes the interaction of financial distress and risk exposure. I find that firms in a stronger financial position are more likely to limit their exposure by reducing the number of exposed facilities. On the other hand, not only do firms in weaker financial position not decrease their exposure, I find that, in some instances, they increase their exposure to carcinogens. This work again supports the theory of asset substitution. Finally, in my third paper, I explore if public firms respond differently to a potential negative cash flow shock than do private firms. I test whether existing public firms are more likely to attempt to minimize their cash flow risk and thus reduce their carcinogen exposure than are private firms. I do not find evidence that public firms respond differently to this shock than do private firms.

Os determinantes da liquidez: evidência nas empresas portuguesas cotadas na Euronet Lisbon

Neste estudo são analisados, através de técnicas adequadas para dados em painel, os determinantes da liquidez das empresas portuguesas cotadas na Euronext Lisbon. Para a concretização do mesmo foi utilizada uma amostra de 40 empresas, para o período de 2000 a 2014, sendo este período dividido em dois subperíodos, o antes e o depois da crise. Os resultados evidenciam a existência de uma relação entre algumas das variáveis independentes e a variável dependente. De facto, antes da crise, verifica-se que as oportunidades de crescimento e a probabilidade de dificuldades financeiras são significativas para o nível da liquidez, sendo que, depois da crise, as variáveis explicativas do nível de liquidez são a volatilidade dos fluxos de caixa, o ciclo de conversão de caixa e a probabilidade de dificuldades financeiras.

Aspectos econômicos da produção de bovinos de corte

O Brasil ocupa as posições de maior produtor e exportador mundial de carne bovina, com a região Centro-Oeste respondendo por 35% do abate nacional, em 2010. Entretanto, faz-se necessário valorizar o planejamento, o controle e a gestão empresarial nas propriedades produtoras, visando ao lucro na atividade. O presente estudo objetivou analisar e avaliar a viabilidade econômica da produção de bovinos de corte, em Camapuã (MS), a fim de identificar os itens relevantes aos custos da atividade. Como direcionador dos custos variáveis, no custo operacional efetivo, o suplemento mineral fornecido aos animais e a mão de obra mostraram-se relevantes para a gestão do sistema de produção, representando, aproximadamente, 71% dos custos. Com base nos resultados apresentados, pôde-se concluir que a propriedade apresenta boa lucratividade (superior a 20%). Verificou-se, ainda, com base no fluxo de caixa, taxa interna de retorno de 13,13% e capital inicial investido retornando em, aproximadamente, 7 anos, com resultados atrativos para o investimento, neste segmento agropecuário. O estudo proporcionou um parâmetro de custo para o produtor pecuarista, podendo contribuir para um melhor planejamento de atividades, em que, apesar dos altos investimentos iniciais, possivelmente, poderá reduzir seus custos, com o manejo racional no sistema produtivo, o que seria mais atrativo para o mercado, tornando mais viáveis as suas atividades de produção e comercialização do produto.

Equity research - Brisa

Mestrado em Finanças

What Is a Firm’s Life Expectancy? Empirical Evidence in the Context of Portuguese Companies

It is a fact that the uncertainty about a firm’s future has to be measured and incorporated into a company’s valuation throughout the explicit analysis period – in the continuing or terminal value within valuation models. One of the concerns that can influence the continuing value of enterprises, which is not explicitly considered in traditional valuation models, is a firm’s average life expectancy. Although the literature has studied the life cycle of a firm, there is still a considerable lack of references on this topic. If we ignore the period during which a company has the ability to produce future cash flows, the valuations can fall into irreversible errors, leading to results markedly different from market values. This paper aims to provide a contribution in this area. Its main objective is to construct a mortality table for non-listed Portuguese enterprises, showing that the use of a terminal value through a mathematical expression of perpetuity of free cash flows is not adequate. We provide the use of an appropriate coefficient to perceive the number of years in which the company will continue to operate until its theoretical extinction. If well addressed regarding valuation models, this issue can be used to reduce or even to eliminate one of the main problems that cause distortions in contemporary enterprise valuation models: the premise of an enterprise’s unlimited existence in time. Besides studying the companies involved in it, from their existence to their demise, our study intends to push knowledge forward by providing a consistent life and mortality expectancy table for each age of the company, presenting models with an explicitly and different survival rate for each year. Moreover, we show that, after reaching a certain age, firms can reinvent their business, acquiring maturity and consequently postponing their mortality through an additional life period.

O valor terminal ou de continuidade, na avaliação de empresas

É um facto que a incerteza sobre o futuro das sociedades tem de ser modelada e incorporada na sua avaliação, fora do período explícito de análise, ou seja: nos valores de continuidade (VC), valor residual (VR) ou valor terminal (VT), considerados nos modelos de avaliação. Existem inúmeros fatores que influenciam o valor de continuidade das empresas e que não são, atualmente, considerados nos modelos de avaliação de empresas, destacando-se, entre os mais relevantes, a ausência de quaisquer referências à esperança média de vida das empresas. De facto, ao ignorarmos esses fatores, podemos incorrer em erros irreparáveis, conduzindo as avaliações a valores de goodwill ou badwill, muito longe do real valor substancial dos ativos, que lhes é intrínseco. Como consequência, os referidos resultados apresentar-se-ão vincadamente diferentes dos valores de mercado. Assim, porque não considerar modelos alternativos (incorporando nos mesmos a esperança de vida das empresas) e a influência de outros fatores, de forma a obter um ajustamento mais eficiente, no que respeita à forma de cálculo do valor da empresa? Este trabalho pretende fornecer um contributo neste domínio, tendo como primeiro objetivo (e para além da revisão da literatura existente sobre a matéria) a construção de uma tábua de mortalidade para as empresas portuguesas, que possa ser utilizada para eliminar ou, pelo menos, reduzir um dos principais problemas causadores de distorção dos atuais modelos de avaliação de empresas: a premissa de existência (ilimitada no tempo) de uma empresa. Com esse propósito, através da metodologia associada à construção de tábuas de mortalidade para os seres humanos, construímos uma tabela com a esperança média de vida associada às empresas portuguesas. Assim, usando uma base de dados (com cerca de 182.000 registos sobre falências, dissoluções e cessão de atividade em Portugal, desde 1900 até 2009), concluímos que, nos primeiros 5 anos, “morrem” 31% das empresas e que a esperança média de vida (à nascença) é de 12 anos. Estes resultados evidenciam a fragilidade dos modelos de avaliação de empresas, em que se estima o VT com uma perpetuidade. Após ficar patente que as empresas não têm uma esperança de vida infinita, preocupar-nos-emos em identificar quais os fatores responsáveis pela existência da empresa (no longo prazo), fatores esses que possam, porventura, justificar uma vida mais longa das sociedades. VI Nesse sentido, o segundo objetivo passou por identificar quais os fatores determinantes do valor terminal da empresa. Assim [utilizando uma amostra de 714 empresas cotadas, pertencentes a 15 países europeus e para um período compreendido entre 1992 e 2011, usando a metodologia GMM (Generalized method of moments), aplicada a dados em painel dinâmico], os resultados evidenciam que o valor de continuidade não pode ser considerado como o valor atual de uma perpetuidade constante (ou com crescimento) de um determinado atributo da empresa mas, sim, em função de um conjunto de atributos, como os free cash flows, os resultados líquidos, a esperança média de vida da empresa, o investimento em I&D, as capacidades e qualidade da gestão, a liquidez dos títulos e a estrutura de financiamento. Como terceiro objetivo (e mantendo a particular atenção na estimação do VT da empresa), procurou-se cruzar os resultados obtidos no estudo anterior com as perceções dos analistas Europeus e Estadunidenses acerca dos atributos da empresa que, na opinião destes, mais contribuem para o seu valor. Para o feito, recorreu-se a um inquérito, com respostas fechadas. Da análise das 123 respostas válidas, obtidas usando a análise fatorial, concluiuse serem determinantes do valor de uma empresa ou negócio os seguintes fatores: a esperança média de vida da empresa, a sua liquidez e desempenho operacional, a inovação e capacidade de afetação de recursos a I&D, as capacidades de gestão e a estrutura de capital, confirmando-se as conclusões até então obtidas. Por fim, fez-se um esforço no sentido de fornecer ao leitor uma nova aproximação teórica ao modelo Discounted CashFlow (DCF), tendo em conta as variáveis entretanto identificadas no nosso estudo. Estes resultados contribuem, a nosso ver, para que se possa caminhar no sentido da construção de um modelo de avaliação de empresas e negócios ainda mais apurado, em que os resultados obtidos nas avaliações se aproximem o mais possível dos verificados no mercado.

EC94-852 Cash Flow Planning Form

This extension circular covers the following areas of a cash flow planning form: Beginning Cash Balance, Operating Sales (crop and hay, market livestock, livestock product, custom work); Capital Sales (breeding livestock, machinery and equipment); Personal Income (wages, interest); Operating Expenses (car/truck, chemicals, conservation, custom hire, feed purchased, fertilizers and lime, freight and trucking, gasoline, fuel and oil, insurance, labor hired, rents and leases, repairs and maintenance, seeds and plants, storage, warehousing, supplies, taxes, utilities, veterinary, breeding fees and medicine, feeder livestock); Capital Purchases (breeding livestock, machinery and equipment, family living withdrawals, personal investments, income and social security, term loan payments); Net Cash Available (operating loan borrowings, operating loan payments); and Ending Operating Loan Balance. Along with the Cash Flow Planning Form is a Projected Income Statement Form which covers Projected Business Income (operating sales, breeding livestock, estimated cash income adjustments, estimated gross revenues, estimated value of production); Project Business Expenses (cash operating, esimated operating, prepaid and supplies, cash investment in growing crops, accounts payable); Projected Net Income Summary (estimated net income from operations, estimated net business income, estimated net income after taxes, estimated earned net worth change); and a Physical Inventory Flows Worksheet.

Operating expenses of 125 food stores, including super-markets, self-service stores, service combination stores, cash combination stores, grocery stores, country general stores.

Mode of access: Internet.

Self-Similarity of Air-Water Flows in Skimming Flows on Stepped Spillways

Skimming flows on stepped spillways are characterised by a significant rate of turbulent dissipation on the chute. Herein an advanced signal processing of traditional conductivity probe signals is developed to provide further details on the turbulent time and length scales. The technique is applied to a 22° stepped chute operating with flow Reynolds numbers between 3.8 and 7.1 E+5. The new correlation analyses yielded a characterisation of large eddies advecting the bubbles. The turbulent length scales were related to the characteristic depth Y90. Some self-similar relationships were observed systematically at both macroscopic and microscopic levels. These included the distributions of void fraction, bubble count rate, interfacial velocity and turbulence level, and turbulence time and length scales. The self-similarity results were significant because they provided a picture general enough to be used to characterise the air-water flow field in prototype spillways.

Model-based estimation of liquid flows in the blast furnace hearth and taphole

This thesis presents a set of methods and models for estimation of iron and slag flows in the blast furnace hearth and taphole. The main focus was put on predicting taphole flow patterns and estimating the effects of various taphole conditions on the drainage behavior of the blast furnace hearth. All models were based on a general understanding of the typical tap cycle of an industrial blast furnace. Some of the models were evaluated on short-term process data from the reference furnace. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built and applied to simulate the complicated hearth flows and thus to predict the regions of the hearth exerted to erosion under various operating conditions. Key boundary variables of the CFD model were provided by a simplified drainage model based on the first principles. By examining the evolutions of liquid outflow rates measured from the furnace studied, the drainage model was improved to include the effects of taphole diameter and length. The estimated slag delays showed good agreement with the observed ones. The liquid flows in the taphole were further studied using two different models and the results of both models indicated that it is more likely that separated flow of iron and slag occurs in the taphole when the liquid outflow rates are comparable during tapping. The drainage process was simulated with an integrated model based on an overall balance analysis: The high in-furnace overpressure can compensate for the resistances induced by the liquid flows in the hearth and through the taphole. Finally, a recently developed multiphase CFD model including interfacial forces between immiscible liquids was developed and both the actual iron-slag system and a water-oil system in laboratory scale were simulated. The model was demonstrated to be a useful tool for simulating hearth flows for gaining understanding of the complex phenomena in the drainage of the blast furnace.

Cash flow management in construction firms

The level of insolvencies in the construction industry is high, when compared to other industry sectors. Given the management expertise and experience that is available to the construction industry, it seems strange that, according to the literature, the major causes of failure are lack of financial control and poor management. This indicates that with a good cash flow management, companies could be kept operating and financially healthy. It is possible to prevent failure. Although there are financial models that can be used to predict failure, they are based on company accounts, which have been shown to be an unreliable source of data. There are models available for cash flow management and forecasting and these could be used as a starting point for managers in rethinking their cash flow management practices. The research reported here has reached the stage of formulating researchable questions for an in-depth study including issues such as how contractors manage their cash flow, how payment practices can be managed without damaging others in the supply chain and the relationships between companies’ financial structures and the payment regimes to which they are subjected.

Capital flows and monetary control under a domestic currency substitution regime: the recent Brazilian experience

The 90s have witnessed a resumption in capital flows to Latin America. due to the conjugation of low interest rates in the US and economic reforms in most LA countries. In Brazil. however. substantial capital flows have becn induced by the extremely high domestic interest rates practiced by the Central Bank as a measure of last reson given the absence of successful stabilization policies. These very high interest rates were needed to prevent capital flight in a context of a surprisingly stable inflation rate above 20% a month. and keep interest bearing govemment securities preferable to foreign assets as money substitutes. We carefully describe how this domestic currency substitution regime (interest bearing govemment securities are substituted for MIas cash holdings) requires the Central Bank to renounce aoy control over monerary aggregates. In this domestic currency substitution regime. hyperinflation is the most likely outcome of an isolated (i.e.. without fiscal adjusanents) attempt by the Brazilian Central Bank to control money.

Experimental analysis of heat recoveries with heat pipes operating in low inclination angle

Heat recovery devices are important in the optimization of thermal systems, since they can be used to reduce thermal losses to the environment. The use of heat pipes in these types of equipment can provide heat recoveries of higher efficiency, since both fluid flows are external and there are less contamination risks between the hot and cold fluids. The objective of this work is to study a heat recovery unit constructed with heat pipes and mainly, to analyze the influence of the inclination of the heat pipes on the performance of the equipment. For this analysis, a heat recovery unit was constructed which possesses 48 finned heat pipes in triangular geometry, the evaporator and condenser being of the same length. This unit was tested in an air-air system simulating a heat recovery process in which heat was supplied to the hot fluid by electrical resistances. The results have shown that there exists an inclination at which the system has a better performance, but for higher inclinations there is no significant increase of the efficiency of the system. This paper also presents the influence of inclination of heat pipes on effectiveness and NTU parameters which are important in heat exchanger design.

Analysis of trade flows between Puerto Rico and CARICOM and prospects for integration

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: third quarter 2004

Includes bibliography