On ignoring scientific evidence: The bumpy road to enlightenment

It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent withtheir theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment anddecision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superiorto more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting ofvariables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions cansometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to theapparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomenabetter than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness,asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.

Archaeology on the Road, July 2010

Not only are we excited that Team Archaeology is back for our third ride, we are energized to be part of a “Human and Natural History” partnership that allows us expanded opportunities to share the story of Iowa’s amazing past. Once again there will be archaeologists along for the ride, as well as at Expo and this year at roadside locations Day One, Five and Six. Don’t hesitate to ask about the history of the first people to travel this landscape as well as the stories of each generation that has contributed to what we know of ourselves today. We will also feature information about the landscape and natural resources of Iowa you will encounter along the route through our partnering colleagues specializing in geology, hydrology, and other earth sciences. Enjoy using this booklet as your guide to the week’s activities and please help yourself to free materials from our outreach booth about our shared past and the natural world we depend on. Ride smart, be safe, and when you get home, be sure to tell your friends and neighbors about Iowa archaeology!

Archaeology on the Road Again, July 2009

Team Archaeology is back for a second year to share the history of Iowa with the riders and supporters of RAGBRAI.

Archaeology on the Road, July 2011

Not only are we excited that Team Archaeology is back for our third ride, we are energized to be part of a “Human and Natural History” partnership that allows us expanded opportunities to share the story of Iowa’s amazing past. Once again there will be archaeologists along for the ride, as well as at Expo and this year at roadside locations Day One, Five and Six. Don’t hesitate to ask about the history of the first people to travel this landscape as well as the stories of each generation that has contributed to what we know of ourselves today. We will also feature information about the landscape and natural resources of Iowa you will encounter along the route through our partnering colleagues specializing in geology, hydrology, and other earth sciences. Enjoy using this booklet as your guide to the week’s activities and please help yourself to free materials from our outreach booth about our shared past and the natural world we depend on. Ride smart, be safe, and when you get home, be sure to tell your friends and neighbors about Iowa archaeology!

Impacts of Rural Development on Iowa’s Secondary Road Systems, TR-548, September 2010

Today, many of Iowa’s counties are experiencing an increase in rural development. Two specific types of development were focused on for this research: rural residential subdivisions and livestock production operations. Rural residential developments are primarily year round single-family homes, though some are vacation homes. Livestock production in Iowa includes hog, beef, and poultry facilities. These two types of rural development, while obviously very different in nature and incompatible with each other, share one important characteristic: They each generate substantial amounts of new traffic for Iowa’s extensive secondary road system. This research brings together economic, spatial, and legal analysis methods to address the impacts of rural development on the secondary road system and provide county engineers, county supervisors, and state legislators with guidance in addressing the challenges associated with this development.

Archaeology on the Road, July 2012

The University of Iowa Office of the State Archaeologist (OSA) is delighted to welcome RAGBRAI riders to Iowa and we’re pleased to share a few details of our fascinating past as you ride across the state. We hope this booklet enhances your enjoyment and helps you learn something new each day of your ride, from the ancient site at Cherokee to the late 1800s lost town site of Bowen’s Prairie.

Flujos de detritos recientes en la cordillera frontal de Mendoza: Un ejemplo de riesgo natural en la ruta 7 = Recent debris flows in the Frontal Cordillera of Mendoza: An example of natural risk on the Road 7

In this paper is presented a study dealing with the debris flows that reached the national road 7 in January 2005, in the km 1,118.5, Mendoza province. The area is located in the Frontal Cordillera near the limit of the Precordillera. A detailed geomorphologic map has been realized for this study using a Quickbird satellite imagery of the year 2006. Various calculations of volumes, velocities and peak discharges have been performed with the field data and using a geographic information system (GIS). The geomorphologic survey has permitted to propose three propagation scenarios in case of a new event. These allowed creating a map of debris flows susceptibility for the stretch of the road that has been studied. Finally, it has been proposed protection and mitigation measures, based on the results of the study, to protect the road from a new event.

Pilot Project for a Hybrid Road-Flooding Forecasting System on Squaw Creek, TR-642

A network of 25 sonic stage sensors were deployed in the Squaw Creek basin upstream from Ames Iowa to determine if the state-of-the-art distributed hydrological model CUENCAS can produce reliable information for all road crossings including those that cross small creeks draining basins as small as 1 sq. mile. A hydraulic model was implemented for the major tributaries of the Squaw Creek where IFC sonic instruments were deployed and it was coupled to CUENCAS to validate the predictions made at small tributaries in the basin. This study demonstrates that the predictions made by the hydrological model at internal locations in the basins are as accurate as the predictions made at the outlet of the basin. Final rating curves based on surveyed cross sections were developed for the 22 IFC-bridge sites that are currently operating, and routine forecast is provided at those locations (see IFIS). Rating curves were developed for 60 additional bridge locations in the basin, however, we do not use those rating curves for routine forecast because the lack of accuracy of LiDAR derived cross sections is not optimal. The results of our work form the basis for two papers that have been submitted for publication to the Journal of Hydrological Engineering. Peer review of our work will gives a strong footing to our ability to expand our results from the pilot Squaw Creek basin to all basins in Iowa.

Effects of Road Construction Intensity and Operations on Rural Freeway Work Zone Capacity, TPF-5(081), 2014

Capacity is affected by construction type and its intensity on adjacent open traffic lanes. The effect on capacity is a function of vehicles moving in and out of the closed lanes of the work zone, and the presence of heavy construction vehicles. Construction activity and its intensity, however, are not commonly considered in estimating capacity of a highway lane. The main purpose of this project was to attempt to quantify the effects of construction type and intensity (e.g. maintenance, rehabilitation, reconstruction, and milling) on work zone capacity. The objective of this project is to quantify the effects of construction type and its intensity on work zone capacity and to develop guidelines for MoDOT to estimate the specific operation type and intensity that will improve the traffic flow by reducing the traffic flow and queue length commonly associated with work zones. Despite the effort put into field data collection, the data collected did not show a full speed-flow chart therefore extracting a reliable capacity value was difficult. A statistical comparison between the capacity values found in this study using either methodologies indicates that there is an effect of construction activity on the values work zone capacity. It was found that the heavy construction activity reduces the capacity. It is very beneficial to conduct similar studies on the capacity of work zone with different lane closure barriers, which is also directly related to the type of work zone being short-term or long-term work zones. Also, the effect of different geometric and environmental characteristics of the roadway should be considered in future studies.

Policy of the Iowa Department of Transportation Highway Division For Accommodating Utilities on Primary Road System, 1990

This policy covers initial placement, adjustment, relocation and replacement of utility facilities in, on, above or below all highway right of way over which the Iowa Department of Transportation exercises control of access. It embodies the basic specifications and standards needed, to insure the safety of the highway user and the integrity of the highway. (1990 revision to 1985 policy.)

Policy for Accommodating and Adjustment of Utilities on the Primary Road System, 2012

This chapter covers initial placement, adjustment, and maintenance of utility facilities in, on, above or below the right-of-way of primary highways, including attachments to primary highway structures. It embodies the basic specifications and standards needed to ensure the safety of the highway user and the integrity of the highway. (2012 revision to 2005 policy.)

Policy of the Iowa Department of Transportation Highway Division For Accommodating Utilities on the Primary Road System, 1992

This chapter covers initial placement, adjustment, improvement, relocation, replacement and maintenance of utility facilities in, on, above or below the right-of-way over of primary highways, including attachments to primary highway structures. It embodies the basic specifications and standards needed, to ensure the safety of the highway user and the integrity of the highway. (1992 revision to 1990 policy.)

Policy for Accommodating and Adjustment of Utilities on the Primary Road System, 2005

This chapter covers initial placement, adjustment, and maintenance of utility facilities in, on, above or below the right-of-way of primary highways, including attachments to primary highway structures. It embodies the basic specifications and standards needed, to ensure the safety of the highway user and the integrity of the highway. (2005 revision to 1992 policy.)