978 resultados para Natural risk
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Background: Early microbial colonization of the gut reduces the incidence of infectious, inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. Recent population studies reveal that childhood hygiene is a significant risk factor for development of inflammatory bowel disease, thereby reinforcing the hygiene hypothesis and the potential importance of microbial colonization during early life. The extent to which early-life environment impacts on microbial diversity of the adult gut and subsequent immune processes has not been comprehensively investigated thus far. We addressed this important question using the pig as a model to evaluate the impact of early-life environment on microbe/host gut interactions during development. Results: Genetically-related piglets were housed in either indoor or outdoor environments or in experimental isolators. Analysis of over 3,000 16S rRNA sequences revealed major differences in mucosa-adherent microbial diversity in the ileum of adult pigs attributable to differences in earlylife environment. Pigs housed in a natural outdoor environment showed a dominance of Firmicutes, in particular Lactobacillus, whereas animals housed in a hygienic indoor environment had reduced Lactobacillus and higher numbers of potentially pathogenic phylotypes. Our analysis revealed a strong negative correlation between the abundance of Firmicutes and pathogenic bacterial populations in the gut. These differences were exaggerated in animals housed in experimental isolators. Affymetrix microarray technology and Real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction revealed significant gut-specific gene responses also related to early-life environment. Significantly, indoorhoused pigs displayed increased expression of Type 1 interferon genes, Major Histocompatibility Complex class I and several chemokines. Gene Ontology and pathway analysis further confirmed these results.
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Ingestion of caesium (Cs) radioisotopes poses a health risk to humans. Crop varieties that accumulate less Cs in their edible tissues may provide a useful countermeasure. This study was performed to determine whether quantitative genetics on a model plant (Arabidopsis thaliana) might inform such 'safe'-crop strategies. Arabidopsis accessions and recombinant inbred lines (RILs), from Landsberg erecta (Ler) x Cape Verdi Island (Cvi), Ler x Columbia (Col), and Niederzenz (Nd) x Col mapping populations, were grown on agar supplemented with subtoxic levels of Cs. Shoot Cs concentration varied up to three-fold, and shoot f. wt varied up to 25-fold within populations. The heritability of growth and Cs accumulation traits ranged from 0.06 to 0.28. Four quantitative trait loci (QTL) accounted for > 80 of the genetic contribution to the total phenotypic variation in shoot Cs concentration in the Ler x Col population. QTL identified in this study, in particular, QTL co-localizing to the top and bottom regions of Chromosomes I and V in two different mapping populations, are amenable to positional cloning and, through collinearity, may inform selection or breeding strategies for the development of 'safe' crops.
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Pteridium aquilinum (bracken fern) is one of the most common plants. Epidemiological studies have revealed a higher risk of certain types of cancers (i.e., esophageal, gastric) in people who consume bracken fern directly ( as crosiers or rhizomes) or indirectly through the consumption of milk from livestock that fed on the plant. In animals, evidence exists regarding the associations between chronic bracken fern intoxication, papilloma virus infection, and the development of carcinomas. While it is possible that some carcinogens in bracken fern could be responsible for these cancers in both humans and animals, it is equally plausible that the observed increases in cancers could be related to induction of an overall immunosuppression by the plant/its various constituents. Under the latter scenario, normal tumor surveillance responses against nascent (non-bracken-induced) cancers or responses against viral infections ( specifically those linked to induction of cancers) might be adversely impacted by continuous dietary exposure to this plant. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to evaluate the immunomodulatory effects of bracken fern following daily ingestion of its extract by a murine host over a period of 14 ( or up to 30) days. In C57BL/6 mice administered ( by gavage) the extract, histological analyses revealed a significant reduction in splenic white pulp area. Among a variety of immune response parameters/functions assessed in these hosts and isolated cells, both delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) analysis and evaluation of IFN gamma. production by NK cells during T(H)1 priming were also reduced. Lastly, the innate response in these hosts-assessed by analysis of NK cell cytotoxic functionality-was also diminished. The results here clearly showed the immunosuppressive effects of P. aquilinum and that many of the functions that were modulated could contribute to the increased risk of cancer formation in exposed hosts.
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This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.
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This research investigates the factors that lead Latin American non-financial firms to manage risks using derivatives. The main focus is on currency risk management. With this purpose, this thesis is divided into an introduction and two main chapters, which have been written as stand-alone papers. The first paper describes the results of a survey on derivatives usage and risk management responded by the CFOs of 74 Brazilian non-financial firms listed at the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA), and the main evidence found is: i) larger firms are more likely to use financial derivatives; ii) foreign exchange risk is the most managed with derivatives; iii) Brazilian managers are more concerned with legal and institutional aspects in using derivatives, such as the taxation and accounting treatment of these instruments, than with issues related to implementing and maintaining a risk management program using derivatives. The second paper studies the determinants of risk management with derivatives in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). I investigate not only the decision of whether to use financial derivatives or not, but also the magnitude of risk management, measured by the notional value of outstanding derivatives contracts. This is the first study, to the best of my knowledge, to use derivatives holdings information in emerging markets. The use of a multi-country setting allows the analysis of institutional and economic factors, such as foreign currency indebtedness, the high volatility of exchange rates, the instability of political and institutional framework and the development of financial markets, which are issues of second-order importance in developed markets. The main contribution of the second paper is on the understanding of the relationship among currency derivatives usage, foreign debt and the sensitivity of operational earnings to currency fluctuations in Latin American countries. Unlikely previous findings for US firms, my evidence shows that derivatives held by Latin American firms are capable of producing cash flows comparable to financial expenses and investments, showing that derivatives are key instruments in their risk management strategies. It is also the first work to show strong and robust evidence that firms that benefit from local currency devaluation (e.g. exporters) have a natural currency hedge for foreign debt that allows them to bear higher levels of debt in foreign currency. This implies that firms under this revenue-cost structure require lower levels of hedging with derivatives. The findings also provide evidence that large firms are more likely to use derivatives, but the magnitude of derivatives holdings seems to be unrelated to the size of the firm, consistent with findings for US firms.
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O objetivo deste trabalho é revisar os principais aspectos teóricos para a aplicação de Opções Reais em avaliação de projetos de investimento e analisar, sob esta metodologia, um caso real de projeto para investir na construção de uma Planta de Liquefação de gás natural. O estudo do caso real considerou a Opção de Troca de Mercado, ao avaliar a possibilidade de colocação de cargas spot de GNL em diferentes mercados internacionais e a Opção de Troca de Produto, devido à flexibilidade gerencial de não liquefazer o gás natural, deixando de comercializar GNL no mercado internacional e passando a vender gás natural seco no mercado doméstico. Para a valoração das Opções Reais foi verificado, através da série histórica dos preços de gás natural, que o Movimento Geométrico Browniano não é rejeitado e foram utilizadas simulações de Monte Carlo do processo estocástico neutro ao risco dos preços. O valor da Opção de Troca de Mercado fez o projeto estudado mais que dobrar de valor, sendo reduzido com o aumento da correlação dos preços. Por outro lado, o valor da Opção de Troca de Produto é menos relevante, mas também pode atingir valores significativos com o incremento de sua volatilidade. Ao combinar as duas opções simultaneamente, foi verificado que as mesmas não são diretamente aditivas e que o efeito do incremento da correlação dos preços, ao contrário do que ocorre na Opção de Troca de Mercado, é inverso na Opção de Troca de Produto, ou seja, o derivativo aumenta de valor com uma maior correlação, apesar do valor total das opções integradas diminuir.
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This research aimed to understand how Brazilian organizations, located in areas affected by natural disasters were impacted in their operations and the impacts to their whole supply chain. Based on documentary analysis, the study identified the major events that happened in Brazil between 2003 and 2012 and the most affected supply chains, as well as key players during the disaster and the greatest impacts on economic activities. The results suggest that natural disasters are still not considered in the risk management by companies, despite the effects on their activities
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The Vitamin E consists of eight chemically homologous forms, designated alpha, beta, gamma and delta tocopherols and tocotrienols. Biologically, the alpha-tocopherol (α-TOH) is the most important. Commercially, are found two types of α-TOH a natural (RRR-alpha-tocopherol) and another synthetic (all-rac-alpha-tocopherol). Both forms are absorbed in the intestine, the liver is a preference in favor of forms 2R, due to transfer protein α-TOH. It has higher affinity to these stereoisomers. Newborns are considered high risk for vitamin E deficiency, mainly premature, these have breast milk as a food source for maintenance of serum α-TOH. Clinical signs such as thrombocytosis, hemolytic anemia, retrolental fibroplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, bronchopulmonary dysplasia and spinocerebellar degeneration can be found in case of a low intake of α-TOH. Thus, maternal supplementation on postpartum with α-TOH can be an efficient way to increase levels of vitamin E in breast milk and thus the consequently increase the supply of micronutrient for the newborn. However, most studies with vitamin E supplementation have been conducted in animals and little is known about the effect of maternal supplementation in humans, as well as on its efficiency to increase levels of α-TOH in human milk, depending on the shape natural or synthetic. The study included 109 women, divided into three groups: control without supplementation (GC) (n=36), supplemented with natural capsule (GNAT) (n=40) and the synthetic capsule (GSINT) (n=33). Blood samples were collected for determination of maternal nutritional status, and colostrums at initial contact and after 24 hours post-supplementation. Analyses were performed by High Performance Liquid Chromatography. Values of α-TOH in serum below 499.6mg/dL were considered deficient. We used the Kruskal-Wallis test and Tukey test to confirm the increase of alpha-tocopherol in milk and efficiency of administered capsules. Daily consumption of α-TOH was based on daily intake of 500 mL of colostrum by the newborn and compared with the nutritional requirement for children from 0 to 6 months of age, 4 mg / day. The mothers had mean concentration of serum α-TOH in 1016 ± 52, 1236 ± 51 and 1083 ± 61 mg / dL, in CG, GNAT and GSINT respectively. There were no women with deficiiency. The GC did not change the concentrations of α-TOH in colostrum. While women supplemented with natural and synthetic forms increased concentrations of α-TOH colostrum in 57.6% and 39%, respectively. By comparing supplemented groups, it was observed a significant difference (p=0.04), the natural capsule more efficient than the synthetic, approximately 49.6%. Individually, 21.1% of the women provided below 4mg/day of α-TOH, after supplementation for this index declined4.1%. Thus, maternal supplementation postpartum raised the levels of alpha-tocopherol in colostrum, and increased efficiency was observed with the natural form
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The construction industry is one of the largest consumers of natural raw materials, and concrete is considered today the most used material wide. This accentuated consumption of natural resources has generated concern with the preservation of the environment, and has motivated various studies related to the use of resid ues, which can partially or entirely substitute, with satisfactory performance, some materials such as the aggregate, and in so doing, decrease the impact on the environment caused by the produced residues. Research has been done to better understand and improve the microstructure of concrete, as well as to understand the mechanism of corrosion in reinforced steel. In this context, this work was developed aiming at discovering the influence of the substitution of natural sand by artificial sand, with rega rd to mechanical resistance, microstructure, and durability. To obtain the electrochemical parameters, an adaptation was made to the galvanostatic electrochemical method to study the corrosion in reinforced steel. Concretes of categories 20 MPa and 40 MPa were produced, containing natural sand, and concretes of the same categories were produced with artificial sand substituting the natural sand, and with the addition of sodium nitrate and sodium chloride. Due to the use of rock dust reject (artificial sand), an evaluation was made of its environmental risk. The results indicate that the concretes of category 20 MPa present a better performance than the concrete made with natural sand, thus making it a viable substitute. For the category 40 MPa, the better performance is from the concrete containing natural sand. The adaptation of the galvanostatic electrochemical technique to the study of the corrosion of reinforced steel within concrete proved to be valid for obtaining electrochemical parameters with a high degree of reliability, considering the number of degrees of freedom
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Understanding how and why insect numbers fluctuate through time and space has been a central theme in ecological research for more than a century. Life tables have been used to understand temporal and spatial patterns in insect numbers. In this study, we estimated cause-of-death probabilities for phytophagous insects using multiple decrement life tables and the irreplaceable mortality analytic technique. Multiple decrement life tables were created from 73 insect life tables published from 1954 to 2004. Irreplaceable mortality (the portion of mortality that cannot be replaced by another cause) from pathogens, predators, and parasitoids was 8.6 +/- 7.2, 7.8 +/- 4.9, and 6.2 +/- 1.6%, respectively. In contrast, the mean irreplaceable mortality from all non-natural enemy mortality factors (mortality from factors other than natural enemies) was 35.1 +/- 4.4%. Irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies was significantly lower compared with non-natural enemy factors. Our results may partially explain cases of unsuccessful efficacy in classical biological control, after successful establishment, by showing low irreplaceable mortality for natural enemies, including 5.2 +/- 1.6% for introduced natural enemies. We suggest that the environment (i.e., the degree of environmental stability) influences the magnitude of the irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies. Our results lead to several testable hypotheses and emphasize that it is not possible to estimate the effect of any mortality factor without considering its interaction with competing mortality factors, which has far-reaching consequences for population biology and applied ecology.
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A modeling of criterias and alternatives is through and applied a questionnaire based on method AHP to proprietors of gas stations. The considered alternatives had been the maintenance of the current state with electric energy of the deliverer and the generation in small scale based on the natural gas. The used criteria had been Cost of the Investment, Final Cost of the Energy, Operational cost, Ambient Benefits, Risk and Variation of Costs. The study it was carried through in the city of Natal, RN in ranks that make use of the natural as for resale, where the generation alternative on the basis of the available gas is present. The main results evidence in a dimension the viability of use of method AHP with questionnaire by means of validation of the judgments with analysis of variance beyond proper the normal mechanisms of analysis of consistency to the method. The main results of the analysis help to show that in this in case that the profile of models of criteria and judgments of the actors is similar, with the final evidence of that it has a dominance of the maintenance of the energy of the deliverer. The main criterion to influence this decision was the risk
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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There are many tales describing ferocious schools of piranha attacking humans, but there are few scientific data supporting such behavior. The very few documented instances of humans attacked and eaten by piranha schools include 3 that occurred after death by other causes (eg, heart failure and drowning). These predaceous fishes, however, do occasionally injure bathers and swimmers in lakes and rivers. The characteristic profile of most injuries is a single bite per victim, generally related to the fish defending its brood. This paper describes an outbreak of piranha bites in a dammed river portion in southeast Brazil. The outbreak was caused by the speckled piranha, Serrasalmus spilopleura, a widespread species which benefits from the growing tendency of damming rivers all over Brazil. This article focuses on the epidemiological and clinical aspects of the injuries, as well as on piranha biology, to gain a better understanding of the natural history of bite outbreaks.
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The objective of this work was to identify the spatial variability of the natural erosion potential, soil loss and erosion risk in two intensely cultivated areas, in order to assess the erosion occurrence patterns. The soil of the area located at Monte Alto, São Paulo state, was classified as Paleudalf (PVA) with moderately slope, with different managements. The soil of the area located at Jaboticabal, São Paulo state, was classified as Haplortox(LV) with gentle slope and cultivated with sugarcane. A irregular grid was imposed on the experimental areas. Soil samples were obtained from 0-0.2 m depth at each grid point: 88 samples in Monte Alto area (1465 ha) and 128 samples at Jaboticabal area (2597 ha). In order to obtain the values of the studied variables USLE was applied at each grid point. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and geoestatistical analyses were performed for defining semivariograms. Kriging techniques to develop map showing spatial patterns in variability of selected soil attributes were used. All variables showed spatial dependence. The PVA soil showed higher erosion risk due to the slope and atual management compared to the soil LV.