Established cardiovascular disease and CVD risk factors in a primary care population of middle-aged Irish men and women

Contemporary Irish data on the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are sparse. The primary aims of this study were (1) to estimate the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease risk factors, including Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, in the general population of men and women between the ages of 50 and 69 years; and (2) to estimate the proportion of individuals in this age group at high absolute risk of cardiovascular disease events on the basis of pre-existing cardiovascular disease or as defined by the Framingham equation. Participants were drawn from the practice lists of 17 general practices in Cork and Kerry using stratified random sampling. A total of 1018 people attended for screening (490 men, 48%) from 1473 who were invited, a response rate of 69.1%. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and glucose intolerance are common in the population of men and women aged between 50 and 69 years. Almost half the participants were overweight and a further quarter met current international criteria for obesity, one of the highest recorded prevalence rates for obesity in a European population sample. Forty per cent of the population reported minimal levels of physical activity and 19% were current cigarette smokers. Approximately half the sample had blood pressure readings consistent with international criteria for the diagnosis of hypertension, but only 38% of these individuals were known to be hypertensive. Eighty per cent of the population sample had a cholesterol concentration in excess of 5 mmol/l. Almost 4% of the population had Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, of whom 30% were previously undiagnosed. A total of 137 participants (13.5%) had a history or ECG findings consistent with established cardiovascular disease. Of the remaining 881 individuals in the primary prevention population, a total of 20 high-risk individuals (19 male) had a risk of a coronary heart disease event 30% over ten years according to the Framingham risk equation, giving an overall population prevalence of 2.0% (95% CI 1.3 - 3.0). At a risk level 20% over ten years, an additional 91 individuals (8.9%) were identified. Thus a total of 24.4% of the population were at risk either through pre-existing CVD (13.5%) or an estimated 10-year risk exceeding 20% according to the Framingham risk equation (10.9%). Thus a substantial proportion of middle-aged men are at high risk of CVD. The findings emphasise the scale of the CVD epidemic in Ireland and the need for ongoing monitoring of risk factors at the population level and the need to develop preventive strategies at both the clinical and societal level.

Real-Time and Data-Driven Operation Optimization and Knowledge Discovery for an Enterprise Information System

An enterprise information system (EIS) is an integrated data-applications platform characterized by diverse, heterogeneous, and distributed data sources. For many enterprises, a number of business processes still depend heavily on static rule-based methods and extensive human expertise. Enterprises are faced with the need for optimizing operation scheduling, improving resource utilization, discovering useful knowledge, and making data-driven decisions.

This thesis research is focused on real-time optimization and knowledge discovery that addresses workflow optimization, resource allocation, as well as data-driven predictions of process-execution times, order fulfillment, and enterprise service-level performance. In contrast to prior work on data analytics techniques for enterprise performance optimization, the emphasis here is on realizing scalable and real-time enterprise intelligence based on a combination of heterogeneous system simulation, combinatorial optimization, machine-learning algorithms, and statistical methods.

On-demand digital-print service is a representative enterprise requiring a powerful EIS.We use real-life data from Reischling Press, Inc. (RPI), a digit-print-service provider (PSP), to evaluate our optimization algorithms.

In order to handle the increase in volume and diversity of demands, we first present a high-performance, scalable, and real-time production scheduling algorithm for production automation based on an incremental genetic algorithm (IGA). The objective of this algorithm is to optimize the order dispatching sequence and balance resource utilization. Compared to prior work, this solution is scalable for a high volume of orders and it provides fast scheduling solutions for orders that require complex fulfillment procedures. Experimental results highlight its potential benefit in reducing production inefficiencies and enhancing the productivity of an enterprise.

We next discuss analysis and prediction of different attributes involved in hierarchical components of an enterprise. We start from a study of the fundamental processes related to real-time prediction. Our process-execution time and process status prediction models integrate statistical methods with machine-learning algorithms. In addition to improved prediction accuracy compared to stand-alone machine-learning algorithms, it also performs a probabilistic estimation of the predicted status. An order generally consists of multiple series and parallel processes. We next introduce an order-fulfillment prediction model that combines advantages of multiple classification models by incorporating flexible decision-integration mechanisms. Experimental results show that adopting due dates recommended by the model can significantly reduce enterprise late-delivery ratio. Finally, we investigate service-level attributes that reflect the overall performance of an enterprise. We analyze and decompose time-series data into different components according to their hierarchical periodic nature, perform correlation analysis,

and develop univariate prediction models for each component as well as multivariate models for correlated components. Predictions for the original time series are aggregated from the predictions of its components. In addition to a significant increase in mid-term prediction accuracy, this distributed modeling strategy also improves short-term time-series prediction accuracy.

In summary, this thesis research has led to a set of characterization, optimization, and prediction tools for an EIS to derive insightful knowledge from data and use them as guidance for production management. It is expected to provide solutions for enterprises to increase reconfigurability, accomplish more automated procedures, and obtain data-driven recommendations or effective decisions.

The role of operations management in public sector policy and practice alignment: a local government analysis

In responding to the demand for change and improvement, local government has applied a plethora of operations management-based methods, tools and techniques. This article explores how these methods, specifically in the form of performance management models, are used to improve alignment between central government policy and local government practice, an area which has thus far been neglected in the literature. Using multiple case studies from Environmental Waste Management Services, this research reports that models derived in the private sector are often directly ‘implanted’ into the public sector. This has challenged the efficacy of all performance management models. However, those organisations which used models most effectively did so by embedding (contextualisation) and extending (reconceptualisation) them beyond their original scope. Moreover, success with these models created a cumulative effect whereby other operations management approaches were probed, adapted and used.

Essays on supply chain's flexibility: a real options approach

A presente tese investiga o processo de tomada de decisão na gestão de cadeias de abastecimento, utilizando um quadro de análise de opções reais. Especificamente, estudamos tópicos como o nível de inventário ideal para protecção contra a incerteza da procura, o momento para implementação de capacidade flexível em mercados onde existe complexidade no mix de produtos, o tempo para o reforço do factor trabalho visando requisitos de serviço ao mercado, e as decisões entre integração e outsourcing num ambiente de incerteza. Foram usadas metodologias de tempo discreto e contínuo para identificar o valor ideal e o calendário das opções a adoptar, quando a procura é estocástica. Além disso, foram considerados os efeitos dos requisitos dos mercados, como a complexidade na oferta de produtos e o nível de serviço. A procura é representada recorrendo a diferentes processos estocásticos, o impacto de saltos inesperados também é explorado, reforçando a generalização dos modelos a diferentes condições de negócio. A aplicabilidade dos modelos que apresentamos permite a diversificação e o enriquecimento da literatura sobre a abordagem de opções reais, no âmbito das cadeias de abastecimento. Níveis de inventário flexíveis e capacidades flexíveis são característicos das cadeias de abastecimento e podem ser usados como resposta à incerteza do mercado. Esta tese é constituída por ensaios que suportam a aplicação dos modelos, e consiste num capítulo introdutório (designado por ensaio I) e mais seis ensaios sobre factores que discutem o uso de medidas de flexibilidade nas cadeias de abastecimento, em ambientes de incerteza, e um último ensaio sobre a extensão do conceito de flexibilidade ao tratamento da avaliação de planos de negócio. O segundo ensaio que apresentamos é sobre o valor do inventário num único estádio, enquanto medida de flexibilidade, sujeita ao crescente condicionalismo dos custos com posse de activos. Introduzimos uma nova classificação de artigos para suportar o indicador designado por overstock. No terceiro e quarto ensaio ampliamos a exploração do conceito de overstock, promovendo a interacção e o balanceamento entre vários estádios de uma cadeia de abastecimento, como forma de melhorar o desempenho global. Para sustentar a aplicação prática das abordagens, adaptamos o ensaio número três à gestão do desempenho, para suportar o estabelecimento de metas coordenadas e alinhadas; e adaptamos o quarto ensaio à coordenação das cadeias de abastecimento, como auxiliar ao planeamento integrado e sequencial dos níveis de inventário. No ensaio cinco analisamos o factor de produção “tecnologia”, em relação directa com a oferta de produtos de uma empresa, explorando o conceito de investimento, como medida de flexibilidade nas componentes de volume da procura e gama de produtos. Dedicamos o ensaio número seis à análise do factor de produção “Mão-de-Obra”, explorando as condicionantes para aumento do número de turnos na perspectiva económica e determinando o ponto crítico para a tomada de decisão em ambientes de incerteza. No ensaio número sete exploramos o conceito de internalização de operações, demarcando a nossa análise das demais pela definição do momento crítico que suporta a tomada de decisão em ambientes dinâmicos. Complementamos a análise com a introdução de factores temporais de perturbação, nomeadamente, o estádio de preparação necessário e anterior a uma eventual alteração de estratégia. Finalmente, no último ensaio, estendemos a análise da flexibilidade em ambientes de incerteza ao conceito de planos de negócio. Em concreto, exploramos a influência do número de pontos de decisão na flexibilidade de um plano, como resposta à crescente incerteza dos mercados. A título de exemplo, usamos o mecanismo de gestão sequencial do orçamento para suportar o nosso modelo. A crescente incerteza da procura obrigou a um aumento da agilidade e da flexibilidade das cadeias de abastecimento, limitando o uso de muitas das técnicas tradicionais de suporte à gestão, pela incapacidade de incorporarem os efeitos da incerteza. A flexibilidade é claramente uma vantagem competitiva das empresas que deve, por isso, ser quantificada. Com os modelos apresentados e com base nos resultados analisados, pretendemos demonstrar a utilidade da consideração da incerteza nos instrumentos de gestão, usando exemplos numéricos para suportar a aplicação dos modelos, o que claramente promove a aproximação dos desenvolvimentos aqui apresentados às práticas de negócio.

Otimização da atividade de picking num armazém de peças – um caso de estudo

Mestrado em Engenharia Mecânica – Gestão Industrial

Reframing reverse logistics, reducing costs

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Allocation optimale des ressources pour les applications et services de grille de calcul

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Optimisation des horaires des agents et du routage des appels dans les centres d’appels

Nous étudions la gestion de centres d'appels multi-compétences, ayant plusieurs types d'appels et groupes d'agents. Un centre d'appels est un système de files d'attente très complexe, où il faut généralement utiliser un simulateur pour évaluer ses performances. Tout d'abord, nous développons un simulateur de centres d'appels basé sur la simulation d'une chaîne de Markov en temps continu (CMTC), qui est plus rapide que la simulation conventionnelle par événements discrets. À l'aide d'une méthode d'uniformisation de la CMTC, le simulateur simule la chaîne de Markov en temps discret imbriquée de la CMTC. Nous proposons des stratégies pour utiliser efficacement ce simulateur dans l'optimisation de l'affectation des agents. En particulier, nous étudions l'utilisation des variables aléatoires communes. Deuxièmement, nous optimisons les horaires des agents sur plusieurs périodes en proposant un algorithme basé sur des coupes de sous-gradients et la simulation. Ce problème est généralement trop grand pour être optimisé par la programmation en nombres entiers. Alors, nous relaxons l'intégralité des variables et nous proposons des méthodes pour arrondir les solutions. Nous présentons une recherche locale pour améliorer la solution finale. Ensuite, nous étudions l'optimisation du routage des appels aux agents. Nous proposons une nouvelle politique de routage basé sur des poids, les temps d'attente des appels, et les temps d'inoccupation des agents ou le nombre d'agents libres. Nous développons un algorithme génétique modifié pour optimiser les paramètres de routage. Au lieu d'effectuer des mutations ou des croisements, cet algorithme optimise les paramètres des lois de probabilité qui génèrent la population de solutions. Par la suite, nous développons un algorithme d'affectation des agents basé sur l'agrégation, la théorie des files d'attente et la probabilité de délai. Cet algorithme heuristique est rapide, car il n'emploie pas la simulation. La contrainte sur le niveau de service est convertie en une contrainte sur la probabilité de délai. Par après, nous proposons une variante d'un modèle de CMTC basé sur le temps d'attente du client à la tête de la file. Et finalement, nous présentons une extension d'un algorithme de coupe pour l'optimisation stochastique avec recours de l'affectation des agents dans un centre d'appels multi-compétences.

Staffing Optimization with Chance Constraints in Call Centers

Les centres d’appels sont des éléments clés de presque n’importe quelle grande organisation. Le problème de gestion du travail a reçu beaucoup d’attention dans la littérature. Une formulation typique se base sur des mesures de performance sur un horizon infini, et le problème d’affectation d’agents est habituellement résolu en combinant des méthodes d’optimisation et de simulation. Dans cette thèse, nous considérons un problème d’affection d’agents pour des centres d’appels soumis a des contraintes en probabilité. Nous introduisons une formulation qui exige que les contraintes de qualité de service (QoS) soient satisfaites avec une forte probabilité, et définissons une approximation de ce problème par moyenne échantillonnale dans un cadre de compétences multiples. Nous établissons la convergence de la solution du problème approximatif vers celle du problème initial quand la taille de l’échantillon croit. Pour le cas particulier où tous les agents ont toutes les compétences (un seul groupe d’agents), nous concevons trois méthodes d’optimisation basées sur la simulation pour le problème de moyenne échantillonnale. Étant donné un niveau initial de personnel, nous augmentons le nombre d’agents pour les périodes où les contraintes sont violées, et nous diminuons le nombre d’agents pour les périodes telles que les contraintes soient toujours satisfaites après cette réduction. Des expériences numériques sont menées sur plusieurs modèles de centre d’appels à faible occupation, au cours desquelles les algorithmes donnent de bonnes solutions, i.e. la plupart des contraintes en probabilité sont satisfaites, et nous ne pouvons pas réduire le personnel dans une période donnée sont introduire de violation de contraintes. Un avantage de ces algorithmes, par rapport à d’autres méthodes, est la facilité d’implémentation.

Design and Development of a Performance Evaluation Prototype for IT Organizations in the Context of Outsourcing

The present study shows design and development of a performance evaluation prototype for IT organizations in the context of outsourcing. The main objective of this research is to help an IT organization in the context of outsourcing to realize its current standing, so it can take corrective steps where ever necessary and strive for continuous improvement. Service level management (SLM) process plays a crucial role in controlling the quality provision for IT service. Out sourcing is the process of entrusting the responsibility of providing certain goods and services to an external party. We have tried to identify as many as twenty complexities and categorized in to four headings. Complexities associated with contracts and SLAs,SLM process,SLM organization and complexities due to intrinsic characteristics. In this study it is possible to measure the quality of the performance of an IT organization in an outsourcing environment effectively

Einsatz von rückgekoppelten mehrstufigen selbstorganisierenden Karten in der Windenergie Leistungsprognose

In dieser Arbeit wird ein Verfahren zum Einsatz neuronaler Netzwerke vorgestellt, das auf iterative Weise Klassifikation und Prognoseschritte mit dem Ziel kombiniert, bessere Ergebnisse der Prognose im Vergleich zu einer einmaligen hintereinander Ausführung dieser Schritte zu erreichen. Dieses Verfahren wird am Beispiel der Prognose der Windstromerzeugung abhängig von der Wettersituation erörtert. Eine Verbesserung wird in diesem Rahmen mit einzelnen Ausreißern erreicht. Verschiedene Aspekte werden in drei Kapiteln diskutiert: In Kapitel 1 werden die verwendeten Daten und ihre elektronische Verarbeitung vorgestellt. Die Daten bestehen zum einen aus Windleistungshochrechnungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland der Jahre 2011 und 2012, welche als Transparenzanforderung des Erneuerbaren Energiegesetzes durch die Übertragungsnetzbetreiber publiziert werden müssen. Zum anderen werden Wetterprognosen, die der Deutsche Wetterdienst im Rahmen der Grundversorgung kostenlos bereitstellt, verwendet. Kapitel 2 erläutert zwei aus der Literatur bekannte Verfahren - Online- und Batchalgorithmus - zum Training einer selbstorganisierenden Karte. Aus den dargelegten Verfahrenseigenschaften begründet sich die Wahl des Batchverfahrens für die in Kapitel 3 erläuterte Methode. Das in Kapitel 3 vorgestellte Verfahren hat im modellierten operativen Einsatz den gleichen Ablauf, wie eine Klassifikation mit anschließender klassenspezifischer Prognose. Bei dem Training des Verfahrens wird allerdings iterativ vorgegangen, indem im Anschluss an das Training der klassenspezifischen Prognose ermittelt wird, zu welcher Klasse der Klassifikation ein Eingabedatum gehören sollte, um mit den vorliegenden klassenspezifischen Prognosemodellen die höchste Prognosegüte zu erzielen. Die so gewonnene Einteilung der Eingaben kann genutzt werden, um wiederum eine neue Klassifikationsstufe zu trainieren, deren Klassen eine verbesserte klassenspezifisch Prognose ermöglichen.

Metabolic disorders in the transition period indicate that the dairy cows' ability to adapt is overstressed

Metabolic disorders are a key problem in the transition period of dairy cows and often appear before the onset of further health problems. They mainly derive from difficulties the animals have in adapting to changes and disturbances occurring both outside and inside the organisms and due to varying gaps between nutrient supply and demand. Adaptation is a functional and target-oriented process involving the whole organism and thus cannot be narrowed down to single factors. Most problems which challenge the organisms can be solved in a number of different ways. To understand the mechanisms of adaptation, the interconnectedness of variables and the nutrient flow within a metabolic network need to be considered. Metabolic disorders indicate an overstressed ability to balance input, partitioning and output variables. Dairy cows will more easily succeed in adapting and in avoiding dysfunctional processes in the transition period when the gap between nutrient and energy demands and their supply is restricted. Dairy farms vary widely in relation to the living conditions of the animals. The complexity of nutritional and metabolic processes Animals 2015, 5 979 and their large variations on various scales contradict any attempts to predict the outcome of animals’ adaptation in a farm specific situation. Any attempts to reduce the prevalence of metabolic disorders and associated production diseases should rely on continuous and comprehensive monitoring with appropriate indicators on the farm level. Furthermore, low levels of disorders and diseases should be seen as a further significant goal which carries weight in addition to productivity goals. In the long run, low disease levels can only be expected when farmers realize that they can gain a competitive advantage over competitors with higher levels of disease.

El perfil del usuario de medios electrónicos en las 4 principales universidades de Bogotá

El trabajo de grado propuesto pretende dar a conocer algunas características que poseen las 4 principales Universidades de Bogotá como lo son la Javeriana, los Andes, la Sabana y el Rosario en cuanto a educación virtual, infraestructura para soportar la red de Internet, nivel de penetración y el uso que le dan a esta herramienta informática los estudiantes de cada plantel educativo. Por consiguiente, se analizará el entorno internacional, como evolucionó el tema desde sus orígenes en los Estados Unidos, su situación actual y los alcances de la herramienta en los países del mundo. Además se mostrará cómo se encuentran las tecnologías de la información y comunicación en algunas universidades del mundo, su aplicativo en los estudiantes y las ventajas que ofrecen para la educación actual y futura. Del mismo de las Universidades de Bogotá, su frecuencia de uso, actividades más comunes a través de esta herramienta, infraestructura para soportar esta herramienta, calidad del servicio, nivel de satisfacción y lo más importante quizás, es conocer si los estudiantes de las 4 principales modo se estudiará el nivel de penetración del Internet en los estudiantes universidades de Bogotá utilizan los medios electrónicos en las mismas instalaciones de las universidades. Para el desarrollo de esta investigación se realizaron encuestas a las directivas y personas encargados de temas afines en cada una de las universidades de estudio, de tal manera, que pudiéramos acercarnos a como se maneja el tema actualmente en las universidades de la capital colombiana, su desarrollo a lo largo del tiempo y su proyección hacia el futuro. Tras analizar los resultados de las entrevistas con directivas de los centros educativos, recopilar y analizar información relacionada al tema del Internet en las universidades, se llega a responder el principal objetivo de la investigación propuesta, el cual se fundamenta en conocer cuál es el perfil del usuario de medios electrónicos en las 4 principales universidades de Bogotá.

Implementación del Proceso de Picking en la Empresa Compulens y Llanes Ltda.

El presente trabajo de grado busca optimizar el proceso de Picking en la empresa productora de lentes oftálmicos Compulens y Llanes LTDA, para disminuir tiempos y agilizar la operación. Se utilizarán herramientas vistas a lo largo del pregrado de Administración en Logística y Producción, para realizar un análisis profundo del estado actual del proceso y el Layout de la bodega, para después aplicar herramientas propias de la investigación de operaciones, logística interna, entre otras, y proponer soluciones para conseguir los resultados esperados. Se partirá de un análisis de todos los tipos de bases para lentes oftálmicos que se tallan en la empresa, para plantear mejoras y buenas prácticas en los procesos que se llevan a cabo dentro de la bodega de almacenamiento. Dichas mejoras y recomendaciones tienen como finalidad ayudar a la empresa a cumplir la promesa de servicio a los clientes y evitar el atraso en la entrega de pedidos.

Análisis del proceso de reclamos para clientes de la unidad de Negocio de Salón Profesional de Procter & Gamble Latinoamérica

Las decisiones en el mundo empresarial se basan en el supuesto de la existencia de recursos limitados. Sin importar el tamaño de las compañías, existen procesos cruciales que no pueden ser ejecutados dadas limitaciones de personal, activos físicos, financieros entre otros. Por lo anterior, propuestas como las Teoría de las Restricciones (Theory of Constraints - TOC) y el Manejo en base a Actividades (Activity-Based Management – AMB) se han posicionado como un marco de desarrollo dentro de los procesos administrativos y de producción de las compañías. En el presente proyecto se analizará el caso del proceso de reclamos presentados por los clientes en Salón Profesional, una de las Áreas de Negocio de la empresa Procter & Gamble, con el objetivo de formular una alternativa financieramente viable para mejorar el nivel de servicio en la resolución de reclamos para los clientes de Salón Profesional de Latinoamérica.