Assessment of variance components in nonlinear mixed-effects elliptical models

The issue of assessing variance components is essential in deciding on the inclusion of random effects in the context of mixed models. In this work we discuss this problem by supposing nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data by using the score-type test proposed in Silvapulle and Silvapulle (1995). Being asymptotically equivalent to the likelihood ratio test and only requiring the estimation under the null hypothesis, this test provides a fairly easy computable alternative for assessing one-sided hypotheses in the context of the marginal model. Taking into account the possible non-normal distribution, we assume that the joint distribution of the response variable and the random effects lies in the elliptical class, which includes light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions such as Student-t, power exponential, logistic, generalized Student-t, generalized logistic, contaminated normal, and the normal itself, among others. We compare the sensitivity of the score-type test under normal, Student-t and power exponential models for the kinetics data set discussed in Vonesh and Carter (1992) and fitted using the model presented in Russo et al. (2009). Also, a simulation study is performed to analyze the consequences of the kurtosis misspecification.

Beneficial effects of Anadenanthera colubrina (Vell.) Brenan extract on the inflammatory and nociceptive responses in rodent models

Ethnopharmacological relevance:Anadenantheracolubrina (Vell.) Brenan,popularlyknownas “angico”, is a plantthathasbeenwidelyusedinfolkmedicineduetoitsanti-inflammatory property.Toevaluatethe pharmacological activitiesofthisplant,studieswereperformedonitsantinociceptiveandanti- inflammatoryproperties. Materials andmethods: The AEof Anadenantheracolubrina, madefromthebark,wasusedinrodentsvia oral route(p.o.),at100,200,and400mg/kginclassicalmodelsofnociception(aceticacid-induced writhing andhot-platetest)andinflammation evokedbycarrageenan(e.g.,pawedema,peritonitis,and synovitis). Results: The aceticacid-inducedabdominalwrithesinmiceweresignificantly reduced(Po0.001)by oral treatmentwiththeextract(100,200,and400mg/kg),buttheextractdidnotsignificantly increase the latencyinthenociceptivehot-platetest. Anadenantheracolubrina aqueousextractreduced significantly theedemaand,besides,diminishedthemieloperoxidaseactivity(200and400mg/kg, Po0.01).Thecarrageenan-inducedperitonitiswassignificantly reduced(Po0.05) bytheaqueous extractat100,200,and400mg/kg.Theaqueousextract(200mg/kg)reducesthesynovialleukocyte infiltration oncarrageenan-inducedsynovitisinrats(Po0.01),butfailedtosignificantly affectjoint swelling andimpairedmobility. Conclusions: Weshowforthe first timethattheanti-inflammatory andperipheralantinociceptive activities of Anadenantheracolubrina are consistent,atleastinpart,withtheuseofthisplantinpopular medicine practices.

Study of the thermal effects induced by magnetic resonance on endocardial leads: numerical models and experimental validation

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is today precluded to patients bearing active implantable medical devices AIMDs). The great advantages related to this diagnostic modality, together with the increasing number of people benefiting from implantable devices, in particular pacemakers(PM)and carioverter/defibrillators (ICD), is prompting the scientific community the study the possibility to extend MRI also to implanted patients. The MRI induced specific absorption rate (SAR) and the consequent heating of biological tissues is one of the major concerns that makes patients bearing metallic structures contraindicated for MRI scans. To date, both in-vivo and in-vitro studies have demonstrated the potentially dangerous temperature increase caused by the radiofrequency (RF) field generated during MRI procedures in the tissues surrounding thin metallic implants. On the other side, the technical evolution of MRI scanners and of AIMDs together with published data on the lack of adverse events have reopened the interest in this field and suggest that, under given conditions, MRI can be safely performed also in implanted patients. With a better understanding of the hazards of performing MRI scans on implanted patients as well as the development of MRI safe devices, we may soon enter an era where the ability of this imaging modality may be more widely used to assist in the appropriate diagnosis of patients with devices. In this study both experimental measures and numerical analysis were performed. Aim of the study is to systematically investigate the effects of the MRI RF filed on implantable devices and to identify the elements that play a major role in the induced heating. Furthermore, we aimed at developing a realistic numerical model able to simulate the interactions between an RF coil for MRI and biological tissues implanted with a PM, and to predict the induced SAR as a function of the particular path of the PM lead. The methods developed and validated during the PhD program led to the design of an experimental framework for the accurate measure of PM lead heating induced by MRI systems. In addition, numerical models based on Finite-Differences Time-Domain (FDTD) simulations were validated to obtain a general tool for investigating the large number of parameters and factors involved in this complex phenomenon. The results obtained demonstrated that the MRI induced heating on metallic implants is a real risk that represents a contraindication in extending MRI scans also to patient bearing a PM, an ICD, or other thin metallic objects. On the other side, both experimental data and numerical results show that, under particular conditions, MRI procedures might be consider reasonably safe also for an implanted patient. The complexity and the large number of variables involved, make difficult to define a unique set of such conditions: when the benefits of a MRI investigation cannot be obtained using other imaging techniques, the possibility to perform the scan should not be immediately excluded, but some considerations are always needed.

Near-field mediated enhancement effects on plasmonic nanostructures

In dieser Arbeit wird eine detaillierte Untersuchung und Charakterisierung der Zwei-Photonen-induzierten Fluoreszenzverstärkung von organischen Farbstoffen auf plasmonischen Nanostrukturen vorgestellt. Diese Fluoreszenzverstärkung ist insbesondere für hochaufgelöste Fluoreszenzmikroskopie und Einzelmolekülspektroskopie von großer Bedeutung. Durch die Zwei-Photonen-Anregung resultiert eine Begrenzung des Absorptionsprozesses auf das fokale Volumen. In Kombination mit dem elektrischen Nahfeld der Nanostrukturen als Anregungsquelle entsteht eine noch stärkere Verringerung des Anregungsvolumens auf eine Größe unterhalb der Beugungsgrenze. Dies erlaubt die selektive Messung ausgewählter Farbstoffe. Durch die Herstellung der Nanopartikel mittels Kolloidlithografie wird eine definierte, reproduzierbare Geometrie erhalten. Polymermultischichten dienen als Abstandshalter, um die Farbstoffe an einer exakten Distanz zum Metall zu positionieren. Durch die kovalente Anbindung des Farbstoffs an die oberste Schicht wird eine gleichmäßige Verteilung des Farbstoffs in geringer Konzentration erhalten. rnEs wird eine Verstärkung der Fluoreszenz um den Faktor 30 für Farbstoffe auf Goldellipsen detektiert, verglichen mit Farbstoffen außerhalb des Nahfelds. Sichelförmige Nanostrukturen erzeugen eine Verstärkung von 120. Dies belegt, dass das Ausmaß der Fluoreszenzverstärkung entscheidend von der Stärke des elektrischen Nahfelds der Nanostruktur abhängt. Auch das Material der Nanostruktur ist hierbei von Bedeutung. So erzeugen Silberellipsen eine 1,5-fach höhere Fluoreszenzverstärkung als identische Goldellipsen. Distanzabhängige Fluoreszenzmessungen zeigen, dass die Zwei-Photonen-angeregte Fluoreszenzverstärkung an strukturspezifischen Abständen zum Metall maximiert wird. Elliptische Strukturen zeigen ein Maximum bei einem Abstand von 8 nm zum Metall, wohingegen bei sichelförmigen Nanostrukturen die höchste Fluoreszenzintensität bei 12 nm gemessen wird. Bei kleineren Abständen unterliegt der Farbstoff einem starken Löschprozess, sogenanntes Quenching. Dieses konkurriert mit dem Verstärkungsprozess, wodurch es zu einer geringen Nettoverstärkung kommt. Hat die untersuchte Struktur Dimensionen größer als das Auflösungsvermögen des Mikroskops, ist eine direkte Visualisierung des elektrischen Nahfelds der Nanostruktur möglich. rnrnEin weiterer Fokus dieser Arbeit lag auf der Herstellung neuartiger Nanostrukturen durch kolloidlithografische Methoden. Gestapelte Dimere sichelförmiger Nanostrukturen mit exakter vertikaler Ausrichtung und einem Separationsabstand von etwa 10 nm wurden hergestellt. Die räumliche Nähe der beiden Strukturen führt zu einem Kopplungsprozess, der neue optische Resonanzen hervorruft. Diese können als Superpositionen der Plasmonenmoden der einzelnen Sicheln beschrieben werden. Ein Hybridisierungsmodell wird angewandt, um die spektralen Unterschiede zu erklären. Computersimulationen belegen die zugrunde liegende Theorie und erweitern das Modell um experimentell nicht aufgelöste Resonanzen. rnWeiterhin wird ein neuer Herstellungsprozess für sichelförmige Nanostrukturen vorgestellt, der eine präzise Formanpassung ermöglicht. Hierdurch kann die Lage der Plasmonenresonanz exakt justiert werden. Korrelationen der geometrischen Daten mit den Resonanzwellenlängen tragen zum grundlegenden Verständnis der Plasmonenresonanzen bei. Die vorgestellten Resultate wurden mittels Computersimulationen verifiziert. Der Fabrikationsprozess erlaubt die Herstellung von Dimeren sichelförmiger Nanostrukturen in einer Ebene. Durch die räumliche Nähe überlappen die elektrischen Nahfelder, wodurch es zu kopplungs-induzierten Shifts der Plasmonenresonanzen kommt. Der Unterschied zu theoretisch berechneten ungekoppelten Nanosicheln kann auch bei den gegenüberliegenden sichelförmigen Nanostrukturen mit Hilfe des Plasmonenhybridisierungsmodells erklärt werden.

Comparative study of the different models for the calculation of BLEVEs overpressure effects

The BLEVE, acronym for Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion, is one of the most dangerous accidents that can occur in pressure vessels. It can be defined as an explosion resulting from the failure of a vessel containing a pressure liquefied gas stored at a temperature significantly above its boiling point at atmospheric pressure. This phenomenon frequently appears when a vessel is engulfed by a fire: the heat causes the internal pressure to raise and the mechanical proprieties of the wall to decrease, with the consequent rupture of the tank and the instantaneous release of its whole content. After the breakage, the vapour outflows and expands and the liquid phase starts boiling due to the pressure drop. The formation and propagation of a distructive schock wave may occur, together with the ejection of fragments, the generation of a fireball if the stored fluid is flammable and immediately ignited or the atmospheric dispersion of a toxic cloud if the fluid contained inside the vessel is toxic. Despite the presence of many studies on the BLEVE mechanism, the exact causes and conditions of its occurrence are still elusive. In order to better understand this phenomenon, in the present study first of all the concept and definition of BLEVE are investigated. A historical analysis of the major events that have occurred over the past 60 years is described. A research of the principal causes of this event, including the analysis of the substances most frequently involved, is presented too. Afterwards a description of the main effects of BLEVEs is reported, focusing especially on the overpressure. Though the major aim of the present thesis is to contribute, with a comparative analysis, to the validation of the main models present in the literature for the calculation and prediction of the overpressure caused by BLEVEs. In line with this purpose, after a short overview of the available approaches, their ability to reproduce the trend of the overpressure is investigated. The overpressure calculated with the different models is compared with values deriving from events happened in the past and ad-hoc experiments, focusing the attention especially on medium and large scale phenomena. The ability of the models to consider different filling levels of the reservoir and different substances is analyzed too. The results of these calculations are extensively discussed. Finally some conclusive remarks are reported.

Differential 3-year effects of first- versus second-generation antipsychotics on subjective well-being in schizophrenia using marginal structural models

This study examined the differential effects of first- (FGAs) versus second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) on subjective well-being in patients with schizophrenia.

Robust Inferences For Covariate Effects On Survival Time With Censored Linear Regression Models

Various inference procedures for linear regression models with censored failure times have been studied extensively. Recent developments on efficient algorithms to implement these procedures enhance the practical usage of such models in survival analysis. In this article, we present robust inferences for certain covariate effects on the failure time in the presence of "nuisance" confounders under a semiparametric, partial linear regression setting. Specifically, the estimation procedures for the regression coefficients of interest are derived from a working linear model and are valid even when the function of the confounders in the model is not correctly specified. The new proposals are illustrated with two examples and their validity for cases with practical sample sizes is demonstrated via a simulation study.

Semiparametric Estimation of Models for Natural Direct and Indirect Effects

In recent years, researchers in the health and social sciences have become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon establishing a non-null total effect of an exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct (indirect) pathway of the effect of the exposure not through (through) a mediator variable that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Natural direct and indirect effects are of particular interest as they generally combine to produce the total effect of the exposure and therefore provide insight on the mechanism by which it operates to produce the outcome. A semiparametric theory has recently been proposed to make inferences about marginal mean natural direct and indirect effects in observational studies (Tchetgen Tchetgen and Shpitser, 2011), which delivers multiply robust locally efficient estimators of the marginal direct and indirect effects, and thus generalizes previous results for total effects to the mediation setting. In this paper we extend the new theory to handle a setting in which a parametric model for the natural direct (indirect) effect within levels of pre-exposure variables is specified and the model for the observed data likelihood is otherwise unrestricted. We show that estimation is generally not feasible in this model because of the curse of dimensionality associated with the required estimation of auxiliary conditional densities or expectations, given high-dimensional covariates. We thus consider multiply robust estimation and propose a more general model which assumes a subset but not all of several working models holds.

Reduced Bayesian Hierarchical Models: Estimating Health Effects of Simultaneous Exposure to Multiple Pollutants

Quantifying the health effects associated with simultaneous exposure to many air pollutants is now a research priority of the US EPA. Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) have been extensively used in multisite time series studies of air pollution and health to estimate health effects of a single pollutant adjusted for potential confounding of other pollutants and other time-varying factors. However, when the scientific goal is to estimate the impacts of many pollutants jointly, a straightforward application of BHM is challenged by the need to specify a random-effect distribution on a high-dimensional vector of nuisance parameters, which often do not have an easy interpretation. In this paper we introduce a new BHM formulation, which we call "reduced BHM", aimed at analyzing clustered data sets in the presence of a large number of random effects that are not of primary scientific interest. At the first stage of the reduced BHM, we calculate the integrated likelihood of the parameter of interest (e.g. excess number of deaths attributed to simultaneous exposure to high levels of many pollutants). At the second stage, we specify a flexible random-effect distribution directly on the parameter of interest. The reduced BHM overcomes many of the challenges in the specification and implementation of full BHM in the context of a large number of nuisance parameters. In simulation studies we show that the reduced BHM performs comparably to the full BHM in many scenarios, and even performs better in some cases. Methods are applied to estimate location-specific and overall relative risks of cardiovascular hospital admissions associated with simultaneous exposure to elevated levels of particulate matter and ozone in 51 US counties during the period 1999-2005.

Clutch-size adjustments and skew models: effects on reproductive partitioning and group stability

Reproductive skew theory seeks to integrate social and ecological factors thought to influence the division of reproduction among group-living animals. However, most reproductive skew models only examine interactions between individuals of the same sex. Here, we suggest that females can influence group stability and conflict among males by modifying their clutch size and may do so if they benefit from the presence of subordinate male helpers or from reduced conflict. We develop 3 models, based on concessions-based, restraint, and tug-of-war models, in which female clutch size is variable and ask when females will increase their clutch size above that which would be optimal in the absence of male-male conflict. In concessions-based and restraint models, females should increase clutch size above their optima if the benefits of staying for subordinate males are relatively low. Relatedness between males has no effect on clutch size. When females do increase clutch size, the division of reproduction between males is not influenced by relatedness and does not differ between restraint and concessions-based models. Both of these predictions are in sharp contrast to previous models. In tug-of-war models, clutch size is strongly influenced by relatedness between males, with the largest clutches, but the fewest surviving offspring, produced when males are unrelated. These 3 models demonstrate the importance of considering third-party interests in the decisions of group-living organisms.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.