Avalanche risk assessment - a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria

Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour, values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these factors and their influence on the resulting risk. The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models (SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability function for different construction types of buildings that depends on avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high complexity of the variations in risk, small changes of one of several influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the today's risk by identifying the main changes and the underlying processes. Furthermore, this knowledge can be implemented in strategies for sustainable development in Alpine settlements.

Integrated Disaster Reduction Approach: LforS Learning and Simulation Game

Main objective of the game is to increase the coping capacity of players and familiarise them with the Integrated Disaster Reduction Approach. The game is intended to prepare for and introduce the players to a subsequent Learning for Sustainability capacity building workshop for community leaders. The game represents a typical emergency situation resulting from a natural disaster. Before and after the event, adequate measures help to prevent or minimise potential damages. Once a disaster has occurred, concerted actions and immediate measures need to be taken to rescue as much as possible (human lives, livestock, material) and safeguard the village against further damage and losses. In the course of the game, each playing team can proof its knowledge on adequate measures that have to be taken in order to avoid or reduce losses related to natural disasters. Such measures relate to assessment and monitoring of risks, prevention and mitigation measures, preparedness and response as well as recovery and reconstruction.

Future water quality monitoring--adapting tools to deal with mixtures of pollutants in water resource management.

Environmental quality monitoring of water resources is challenged with providing the basis for safeguarding the environment against adverse biological effects of anthropogenic chemical contamination from diffuse and point sources. While current regulatory efforts focus on monitoring and assessing a few legacy chemicals, many more anthropogenic chemicals can be detected simultaneously in our aquatic resources. However, exposure to chemical mixtures does not necessarily translate into adverse biological effects nor clearly shows whether mitigation measures are needed. Thus, the question which mixtures are present and which have associated combined effects becomes central for defining adequate monitoring and assessment strategies. Here we describe the vision of the international, EU-funded project SOLUTIONS, where three routes are explored to link the occurrence of chemical mixtures at specific sites to the assessment of adverse biological combination effects. First of all, multi-residue target and non-target screening techniques covering a broader range of anticipated chemicals co-occurring in the environment are being developed. By improving sensitivity and detection limits for known bioactive compounds of concern, new analytical chemistry data for multiple components can be obtained and used to characterise priority mixtures. This information on chemical occurrence will be used to predict mixture toxicity and to derive combined effect estimates suitable for advancing environmental quality standards. Secondly, bioanalytical tools will be explored to provide aggregate bioactivity measures integrating all components that produce common (adverse) outcomes even for mixtures of varying compositions. The ambition is to provide comprehensive arrays of effect-based tools and trait-based field observations that link multiple chemical exposures to various environmental protection goals more directly and to provide improved in situ observations for impact assessment of mixtures. Thirdly, effect-directed analysis (EDA) will be applied to identify major drivers of mixture toxicity. Refinements of EDA include the use of statistical approaches with monitoring information for guidance of experimental EDA studies. These three approaches will be explored using case studies at the Danube and Rhine river basins as well as rivers of the Iberian Peninsula. The synthesis of findings will be organised to provide guidance for future solution-oriented environmental monitoring and explore more systematic ways to assess mixture exposures and combination effects in future water quality monitoring.

Adverse aerodynamics effects of a high speed train under the influence of cross winds, analysis and optimization of wind fence

The research work that here is summarized, it is classed on the area of dynamics and measures of railway safety, specifically in the study of the influence of the cross wind on the high-speed trains as well as the study of new mitigation measures like wind breaking structures or wind fences, with optimized shapes. The work has been developed in the Research Center in Rail Technology (CITEF), and supported by the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain.

Spectral-analysis-surface-waves-method in ground characterization

The prediction of train induced vibration levels in structures close to railway tracks before track construction starts is important in order to avoid having to implement costly mitigation measures afterwards. The used models require an accurate characterization of the propagation medium i.e. the soil layers. To this end the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) method has been chosen among the active surface waves techniques available. As dynamic source a modal sledge hammer has been used. The generated vibrations have been measured at known offsets by means of several accelerometers. There are many parameters involved in estimating the experimental dispersion curve and, later on, thickness and propagation velocities of the different layers. Tests have been carried out at the Segovia railway station. Its main building covers some of the railway tracks and vibration problems in the building should be avoided. In the paper these tests as well as the influence of several parameters on the estimated soil profile will be detailed.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Latest developments in data analysis tools for disruption prediction and for the exploration of multimachine operational spaces.

In the last years significant efforts have been devoted to the development of advanced data analysis tools to both predict the occurrence of disruptions and to investigate the operational spaces of devices, with the long term goal of advancing the understanding of the physics of these events and to prepare for ITER. On JET the latest generation of the disruption predictor called APODIS has been deployed in the real time network during the last campaigns with the new metallic wall. Even if it was trained only with discharges with the carbon wall, it has reached very good performance, with both missed alarms and false alarms in the order of a few percent (and strategies to improve the performance have already been identified). Since for the optimisation of the mitigation measures, predicting also the type of disruption is considered to be also very important, a new clustering method, based on the geodesic distance on a probabilistic manifold, has been developed. This technique allows automatic classification of an incoming disruption with a success rate of better than 85%. Various other manifold learning tools, particularly Principal Component Analysis and Self Organised Maps, are also producing very interesting results in the comparative analysis of JET and ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) operational spaces, on the route to developing predictors capable of extrapolating from one device to another.

Ingeniería de la conservación: Investigación aplicada para la conservación de la fauna mediterránea amenazada

El ser humano nunca ha tenido una capacidad semejante a la actual para alterar el medio en el que vive. A través fundamentalmente de cambios en el uso del hábitat, alteración de los ciclos biogeoquímicos, cambio climático y presencia de especies invasoras, la tasa de extinción de especies se ha acelerado enormemente. Al crecer más rápido la población humana dentro de las áreas en las que se concentra una mayor biodiversidad (biodiversity hotspots), las tasas de transformación son mayores, por lo que dicha biodiversidad se encuentra más amenazada. Entre los principales 25 biodiversity hotspots globales se encuentra la cuenca mediterránea. Las afecciones a la biodiversidad hacen por tanto que en dicha cuenca mediterránea sea necesario poner en práctica iniciativas innovadoras para su conservación. Pero además de una cuidadosa selección, es necesario el seguimiento y la evaluación de la eficacia y la eficienca de dichas medidas, para comprobar su idoneidad y mejorarlas cuando sea posible. Esta es la tarea de la ingeniería de la conservación. Esta Memoria busca analizar y proponer mejoras en cuatro acciones experimentales de conservación de la biodiversidad que tienen un marco común, la conservación de especies subrogadas del monte mediterráneo. En concreto de cinco especies amenazadas: conejo de monte (Oryctolagus cuniculus, especie llave), águila imperial ibérica (Aquila adalberti), águila perdicera (Aquila fasciata), cigüeña negra (Ciconia nigra) y lince ibérico (Lynx pardinus), todas ellas especies paraguas y bandera. Casi todas estas especies se enfrentan a amenazas comunes, como son la pérdida de la calidad del hábitat, la mortalidad de origen humano, la escasez de alimento o la falta de eficiencia en las técnicas de seguimiento. Las acciones destinadas a revertir o minimizar estas amenazas han tenido un marco geográfico y ecológico común, 49 fincas privadas de monte mediterráneo situadas en 9 espacios de la Red Natura 2000 del centro-occidental peninsular, en las que se ha podido trabajar merced a acuerdos de custodia del territorio. Dichas actividades han sido financiadas casi por completo con cargo a fondos LIFE Naturaleza de la Comisión Europea. El presente documento contribuye a aportar el conocimiento científico imprescindible para mejorar la eficacia y eficiencia de las medidas técnicas de gestión y conservación: la ingeniería de la conservación. Como resultados más relevantes se pueden citar que la selección del conejo de las zonas sembradas aumenta con la presencia tanto de isletas de matorral como de refugios y resulta inferior en las zonas de matorral más cerrado; que la electrocución es una de las principales causas de mortalidad de las rapaces amenazadas, así como que se ha detectado que la mortalidad se concentra en determinadas zonas que deben ser prioritarias para su corrección y que éstas deben pasar por las modificaciones estructurales; que la selección de zonas de alimentación por parte de la cigüeña negra se ve afectada por numerosos factores y que una adecuada ubicación y gestión de las charcas para ganadería y caza mayor puede favorecer no sólo la alimentación de esta especie, sino suponer un lugar de cría para diversas especies de anfibios y peces autóctonos, en franco declive; finalmente, hay que destacar que la mejora en el seguimiento de las poblaciones de lince ibérico pasa por la incorporación de métodos de seguimiento novedosos, como las cámaras infrarrojas en letrinas, dada la capacidad de aprendizaje de la especie. Abstract Nowadays the human being has reached its top ability to exchange its environment. Mainly through habitat change, altering biogeochemical cycles, climatic change and alien species, global extinction rate has increased dramatically. Population increases faster in biodiversity hotspots, thus change rates are higher. Mediterranean basin is included within the 25 most valuable biodiversity hotspots. Affections on biodiversity turns necessary to develop innovative actions to maintain the most threatened species in this hotspot. But further than a careful selection and implementarion, survey and evaluation of those practices is necessary to check its suitability. Those are actions for the conservation engineering. This Memory looks for to analyze and to put forward improvements in four experimental biodiversity conservation actions with a common framework: conservation of surrogate Mediterranean species. Those actions were specifically directed to five threatened species: the European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus, key species), Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) and Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata, both of the umbrella and flagship species), black stork (Ciconia nigra, umbrella and flagship species) and the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus, umbrella and flagship species). Those species have common threats: habitat loss, maninduced mortality, food shortening and lack of surveying efficiency. Actions aimed to minimize those threats also had a common geographical frame: 49 privately owned states within 9 Natura 2000 areas in Southwestern Spain. Actions were developed through lands tewardship agreements, and were even wholly undertaken through European Commision LIFE’s fund. This document contributes to develop cientific knowledge necessary for increasing efficacy and efficiency for implementing technical measures devoted to conservation, the conservation engineering. One of the most outstanding result might be the necessity of including bushy islets or rabbit shelter within sowings when enhacing rabbit populations is the goal. Electrocution is one of the commonest man-induced death causes for raptors, especially for the threatened ones. Areas of concentration of this mortality have been detected, and when mitigation measures have been evaluated, only structural modifications had results. The black stork’s selection of feeding areas is influenced by several factors. An adequate location and management of livestock’s ponds can favour not only this species, but also creating new breeding places for amphibians and indigenous fish species, most of them in a sharp decline. Finally, improving the survey of the Iberian lynx might be achieved through implementing newly developed surveying systems, such as the infrared cameras in latrines.

Farm nitrogen balances in six European landscapes as an indicator for nitrogen losses and basis for improved management.

Improved management of nitrogen (N) in agriculture is necessary to achieve a sustainable balance between the production of food and other biomass, and the unwanted effects of N on water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity deterioration and human health. To analyse farm N-losses and the complex interactions within farming systems, efficient methods for identifying emissions hotspots and evaluating mitigation measures are therefore needed. The present paper aims to fill this gap at the farm and landscape scales. Six agricultural landscapes in Poland (PL), the Netherlands (NL), France (FR), Italy (IT), Scotland (UK) and Denmark (DK) were studied, and a common method was developed for undertaking farm inventories and the derivation of farm N balances, N surpluses and for evaluating uncertainty for the 222 farms and 11 440 ha of farmland included in the study. In all landscapes, a large variation in the farm N surplus was found, and thereby a large potential for reductions. The highest average N surpluses were found in the most livestock-intensive landscapes of IT, FR, and NL; on average 202 ± 28, 179 ± 63 and 178 ± 20 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively. All landscapes showed hotspots, especially from livestock farms, including a special UK case with large-scale landless poultry farming. Overall, the average N surplus from the land-based UK farms dominated by extensive sheep and cattle grazing was only 31 ± 10 kg N ha−1 yr−1, but was similar to the N surplus of PL and DK (122 ± 20 and 146 ± 55 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively) when landless poultry farming was included. We found farm N balances to be a useful indicator for N losses and the potential for improving N management. Significant correlations to N surplus were found, both with ammonia air concentrations and nitrate concentrations in soils and groundwater, measured during the period of N management data collection in the landscapes from 2007–2009. This indicates that farm N surpluses may be used as an independent dataset for validation of measured and modelled N emissions in agricultural landscapes. No significant correlation was found with N measured in surface waters, probably because of spatial and temporal variations in groundwater buffering and biogeochemical reactions affecting N flows from farm to surface waters. A case study of the development in N surplus from the landscape in DK from 1998–2008 showed a 22% reduction related to measures targeted at N emissions from livestock farms. Based on the large differences in N surplus between average N management farms and the most modern and N-efficient farms, it was concluded that additional N-surplus reductions of 25–50%, as compared to the present level, were realistic in all landscapes. The implemented N-surplus method was thus effective for comparing and synthesizing results on farm N emissions and the potentials of mitigation options. It is recommended for use in combination with other methods for the assessment of landscape N emissions and farm N efficiency, including more detailed N source and N sink hotspot mapping, measurements and modelling.

High Fidelity Models for Near-Earth Object Dynamics

Motivado por los últimos hallazgos realizados gracias a los recientes avances tecnológicos y misiones espaciales, el estudio de los asteroides ha despertado el interés de la comunidad científica. Tal es así que las misiones a asteroides han proliferado en los últimos años (Hayabusa, Dawn, OSIRIX-REx, ARM, AIMS-DART, ...) incentivadas por su enorme interés científico. Los asteroides son constituyentes fundamentales en la evolución del Sistema Solar, son además grandes concentraciones de valiosos recursos naturales, y también pueden considerarse como objectivos estratégicos para la futura exploración espacial. Desde hace tiempo se viene especulando con la posibilidad de capturar objetos próximos a la Tierra (NEOs en su acrónimo anglosajón) y acercarlos a nuestro planeta, permitiendo así un acceso asequible a los mismos para estudiarlos in-situ, explotar sus recursos u otras finalidades. Por otro lado, las asteroides se consideran con frecuencia como posibles peligros de magnitud planetaria, ya que impactos de estos objetos con la Tierra suceden constantemente, y un asteroide suficientemente grande podría desencadenar eventos catastróficos. Pese a la gravedad de tales acontecimientos, lo cierto es que son ciertamente difíciles de predecir. De hecho, los ricos aspectos dinámicos de los asteroides, su modelado complejo y las incertidumbres observaciones hacen que predecir su posición futura con la precisión necesaria sea todo un reto. Este hecho se hace más relevante cuando los asteroides sufren encuentros próximos con la Tierra, y más aún cuando estos son recurrentes. En tales situaciones en las cuales fuera necesario tomar medidas para mitigar este tipo de riesgos, saber estimar con precisión sus trayectorias y probabilidades de colisión es de una importancia vital. Por ello, se necesitan herramientas avanzadas para modelar su dinámica y predecir sus órbitas con precisión, y son también necesarios nuevos conceptos tecnológicos para manipular sus órbitas llegado el caso. El objetivo de esta Tesis es proporcionar nuevos métodos, técnicas y soluciones para abordar estos retos. Las contribuciones de esta Tesis se engloban en dos áreas: una dedicada a la propagación numérica de asteroides, y otra a conceptos de deflexión y captura de asteroides. Por lo tanto, la primera parte de este documento presenta novedosos avances de apliación a la propagación dinámica de alta precisión de NEOs empleando métodos de regularización y perturbaciones, con especial énfasis en el método DROMO, mientras que la segunda parte expone ideas innovadoras para la captura de asteroides y comenta el uso del “ion beam shepherd” (IBS) como tecnología para deflectarlos. Abstract Driven by the latest discoveries enabled by recent technological advances and space missions, the study of asteroids has awakened the interest of the scientific community. In fact, asteroid missions have become very popular in the recent years (Hayabusa, Dawn, OSIRIX-REx, ARM, AIMS-DART, ...) motivated by their outstanding scientific interest. Asteroids are fundamental constituents in the evolution of the Solar System, can be seen as vast concentrations of valuable natural resources, and are also considered as strategic targets for the future of space exploration. For long it has been hypothesized with the possibility of capturing small near-Earth asteroids and delivering them to the vicinity of the Earth in order to allow an affordable access to them for in-situ science, resource utilization and other purposes. On the other side of the balance, asteroids are often seen as potential planetary hazards, since impacts with the Earth happen all the time, and eventually an asteroid large enough could trigger catastrophic events. In spite of the severity of such occurrences, they are also utterly hard to predict. In fact, the rich dynamical aspects of asteroids, their complex modeling and observational uncertainties make exceptionally challenging to predict their future position accurately enough. This becomes particularly relevant when asteroids exhibit close encounters with the Earth, and more so when these happen recurrently. In such situations, where mitigation measures may need to be taken, it is of paramount importance to be able to accurately estimate their trajectories and collision probabilities. As a consequence, advanced tools are needed to model their dynamics and accurately predict their orbits, as well as new technological concepts to manipulate their orbits if necessary. The goal of this Thesis is to provide new methods, techniques and solutions to address these challenges. The contributions of this Thesis fall into two areas: one devoted to the numerical propagation of asteroids, and another to asteroid deflection and capture concepts. Hence, the first part of the dissertation presents novel advances applicable to the high accuracy dynamical propagation of near-Earth asteroids using regularization and perturbations techniques, with a special emphasis in the DROMO method, whereas the second part exposes pioneering ideas for asteroid retrieval missions and discusses the use of an “ion beam shepherd” (IBS) for asteroid deflection purposes.

Planning and Management of Mobility in Natural Protected Areas

The paper describes some relevant results of an on-going research aiming to elaborate a methodology to help the mobility management in natural parks, compatible with their protection missions: it has been developed a procedure to reproduce the mobility-environment relationships in various operational conditions. The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The work is articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (air pollution and noise only); 6) identification of mitigation measures to be potentially applied. The whole methodology has been tested and validated on Italian case studies: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model the flows have been distributed and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions was calculated, the criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios, including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between projects and reference scenario allowed the quantification of effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Study of PM10 and PM2.5 levels in three European cities: Analysis of intra and inter urban variations

In the present paper, 1-year PM10 and PM 2.5 data from roadside and urban background monitoring stations in Athens (Greece), Madrid (Spain) and London (UK) are analysed in relation to other air pollutants (NO,NO2,NOx,CO,O3 and SO2)and several meteorological parameters (wind velocity, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation and atmospheric pressure), in order to investigate the sources and factors affecting particulate pollution in large European cities. Principal component and regression analyses are therefore used to quantify the contribution of both combustion and non-combustion sources to the PM10 and PM 2.5 levels observed. The analysis reveals that the EU legislated PM 10 and PM2.5 limit values are frequently breached, forming a potential public health hazard in the areas studied. The seasonal variability patterns of particulates varies among cities and sites, with Athens and Madrid presenting higher PM10 concentrations during the warm period and suggesting the larger relative contribution of secondary and natural particles during hot and dry days. It is estimated that the contribution of non-combustion sources varies substantially among cities, sites and seasons and ranges between 38-67% and 40-62% in London, 26-50% and 20-62% in Athens, and 31-58% and 33-68% in Madrid, for both PM10 and PM 2.5. Higher contributions from non-combustion sources are found at urban background sites in all three cities, whereas in the traffic sites the seasonal differences are smaller. In addition, the non-combustion fraction of both particle metrics is higher during the warm season at all sites. On the whole, the analysis provides evidence of the substantial impact of non-combustion sources on local air quality in all three cities. While vehicular exhaust emissions carry a large part of the risk posed on human health by particle exposure, it is most likely that mitigation measures designed for their reduction will have a major effect only at traffic sites and additional measures will be necessary for the control of background levels. However, efforts in mitigation strategies should always focus on optimal health effects.

Planning and management of mobility in natural protected areas

The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The preliminary work was articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (limited to air pollution and noise); 6) identification of mitigation measures to the potentially applied. The whole methodology has been firstly tested on the case study of the National Park of ?Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga? and further validated on the National Park of ?Gargano?, both located Italy: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been synthetically represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model it has been determined the distribution of flows and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions. On this basis the environmental criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between the projects and the reference scenario allowed the quantification of the effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Cobrança pelo uso da água e escassez de recursos hídricos: proposta de modelo de cobrança e aplicação na bacia do rio Atibaia

No Brasil, a Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos apresenta a cobrança pelo uso da água como um instrumento de gestão de recursos hídricos de caráter econômico. Considerando esse caráter, a cobrança deve ter como objetivos: racionalizar o uso do recurso baseado na sua escassez; reconhecer a água como um bem de valor econômico, refletindo os custos ambientais advindos de sua utilização; e diminuir os conflitos entre os usos, induzindo uma alocação que considere o gerenciamento da demanda e as prioridades da sociedade. Além dessas metas, como instrumento de gestão de uma política que lista como primeiro objetivo \"assegurar à atual e às futuras gerações a necessária disponibilidade de água, em padrões de qualidade adequados aos respectivos usos\", a cobrança deve ser implementada de maneira que o agente usuário direcione seu comportamento no sentido da sustentabilidade ambiental. Mediante esses fundamentos, o que se pretende desenvolver neste trabalho é a aplicação de um modelo de cobrança sobre o uso da água que considera como princípio base a manutenção da qualidade ambiental medida pela adequada gestão da escassez de água e, compondo a busca dessa qualidade, a racionalização econômica e a viabilização financeira. Essa predominância do ambiente sobre aspectos econômicos vem no sentido de desqualificar argumentos segundo os quais, os impactos advindos dos usos da água serão corrigidos indefinidamente mediante investimentos financeiros em infra estrutura. Admitir que o desenvolvimento tem esse poder é supor equivocadamente que o meio econômico é limitante do meio ambiente e não o contrário. Esta constatação mostra qual é o problema da maioria das propostas de cobrança que valoram a água baseadas em custos de tratamento de resíduos e de obras hidráulicas. Por mais elaborados que sejam essas fórmulas de cobrança, chegando a ponto de se conseguir que fique mais caro, mediante um padrão ambiental corretamente definido, captar água ou lançar poluentes do que racionalizar usos, o preço da água não pode estar baseado em fatores cuja \"sustentabilidade\" pode acabar no curto prazo, dependendo do ritmo de crescimento econômico. A sustentabilidade dos recursos hídricos só será base da cobrança pelo uso da água se o valor cobrado for dificultando esse uso à medida que os recursos tornarem se escassos, e não quando os custos de medidas mitigadoras dessa escassez se tornarem muito elevados. Portanto, o modelo de cobrança proposto neste trabalho procura garantir que o agente econômico que está exaurindo o meio ambiente não possa ter capacidade de pagar por essa degradação, ajudando efetivamente a política de outorga do direito de uso da água na observância da capacidade de suporte do meio.

A Discursive Perspective on China's Global Politics of Climate Change, 1992-2013

This dissertation investigates China’s recent shift in its climate change policy with a refined discourse approach. Methodologically, by adopting a neo-Gramscian notion of hegemony, a generative definition of discourse and an ontological pluralist position, the study constructs a theoretical framework named “discursive hegemony” that identifies the “social forces” for enabling social change and focuses on the role of discursive mechanisms via which the forces operate and produce effects. The key empirical finding of this study was that it was a co-evolution of conditions that shaped the outcome as China’s climate policy shift. In examining the case, a before-after within-case comparison was designed to analyze the variations in the material, institutional, and ideational conditions, with methods including interviews, conventional narrative/text analysis and descriptive statistics. Specifically, changes in energy use, the structure of decision-making body, and the narratives about sustainable development reflected how the above three types of social force processed in China in the first few years of the 21st century, causing the economic development agenda to absorb the climate issue, and turning the policy frame for the latter from mainly a diplomatic matter to a potential opportunity for better-quality growth. With the discursive operation of the “Science-based development”, China’s energy policy has been a good example of the Chinese understanding of sustainability characterized by economic primacy, ecological viability and social green-engineering. This way of discursive evolution, however, is a double-edged sword that has pushed forward some fast, top-down mitigation measures on the one hand, but has also created and will likely continue creating social and ecological havoc on the other hand. The study makes two major contributions. First and on the empirical level, because China is an international actor that was not expected to cooperate on the climate issue according to major IR theories, this study would add one critical case to the studies on global (environmental) governance and the ideational approach in the IR discipline. Second and on the theory-building level, the model of discursive hegemony can be a causally deeper mode of explanation because it traces the process of co-evolution of social forces.