Why do research on commercial property management? Somebody HAS to!

This paper identifies some significant gaps in our knowledge of the configuration and performance of the property asset management sector. It is argued that, as many leading academic property researchers have focussed on financial vehicles and modelling, in-depth analysis of property assets and their management has been neglected. In terms of potential for future in-depth research, three key broad preliminary research themes or questions are identified. First, how do the active management opportunities presented, costs of management and the key management tasks vary with market conditions, asset type and life-cycle stage? Second, how is property asset management delivered and what are the main costs and benefits of different models of procurement? Finally, what are the appropriate metrics for measuring the performance of different property managers and approaches to property management? It is concluded that the lack of published materials addressing these issues has implications for educating property students.

Separating skill from luck in REIT mutual funds

This study uses a bootstrap methodology to explicitly distinguish between skill and luck for 80 Real Estate Investment Trust Mutual Funds in the period January 1995 to May 2008. The methodology successfully captures non-normality in the idiosyncratic risk of the funds. Using unconditional, beta conditional and alpha-beta conditional estimation models, the results indicate that all but one fund demonstrates poor skill. Tests of robustness show that this finding is largely invariant to REIT market conditions and maturity.

Designer buildings: an evaluation of the price impacts of signature architects

This study investigates whether commercial offices designed by signature architects in the United States achieve rental premiums compared to commercial offices designed by nonsignature architects. Focusing on buildings designed by winners of the Prizker Prize and the Gold Medal awarded by the American Institute of Architects, we create a sample of commercial office buildings designed by signature architects drawing on CoStar's national database. We use a combination of hedonic regression model and a logit model to estimate the various rent determinants. While the first stage measures the typical rental price differential above the typical building in a particular sub-market over a specific timeframe, the second stage identifies a potential price differential over a set of buildings closely matched on important characteristics (such as age, size, location etc.). We find that in both stages offices design by signature architects exhibit a premium. However these results are preliminary. The premium could be indeed an effect of the name of the architect, but others factors such as micro-market conditions might be the cause. Further tests are needed to confirm the validity of our results.

Correlation shifts and real estate portfolio management

The success of any diversification strategy depends upon the quality of the estimated correlation between assets. It is well known, however, that there is a tendency for the average correlation among assets to increase when the market falls and vice-versa. Thus, assuming that the correlation between assets is a constant over time seems unrealistic. Nonetheless, these changes in the correlation structure as a consequence of changes in the market’s return suggests that correlation shifts can be modelled as a function of the market return. This is the idea behind the model of Spurgin et al (2000), which models the beta or systematic risk, of the asset as a function of the returns in the market. This is an approach that offers particular attractions to fund managers as it suggest ways by which they can adjust their portfolios to benefit from changes in overall market conditions. In this paper the Spurgin et al (2000) model is applied to 31 real estate market segments in the UK using monthly data over the period 1987:1 to 2000:12. The results show that a number of market segments display significant negative correlation shifts, while others show significantly positive correlation shifts. Using this information fund managers can make strategic and tactical portfolio allocation decisions based on expectations of market volatility alone and so help them achieve greater portfolio performance overall and especially during different phases of the real estate cycle.

Time weighted portfolio optimisation

In estimating the inputs into the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) portfolio optimisation problem, it is usual to use equal weighted historic data. Equal weighting of the data, however, does not take account of the current state of the market. Consequently this approach is unlikely to perform well in any subsequent period as the data is still reflecting market conditions that are no longer valid. The need for some return-weighting scheme that gives greater weight to the most recent data would seem desirable. Therefore, this study uses returns data which are weighted to give greater weight to the most recent observations to see if such a weighting scheme can offer improved ex-ante performance over that based on un-weighted data.

The uncertainty of valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.

The influence of markets and policy on spatial patterns of non-timber forest product extraction

When villagers extract resources, such as fuelwood, fodder, or medicinal plants from forests, their decisions over where and how much to extract are influenced by market conditions, their particular opportunity costs of time, minimum consumption needs, and access to markets. This paper develops an optimization model of villagers’ extraction behavior that clarifies how, and under what conditions, policies that create incentives such as improved returns to extraction in a buffer zone might be used instead of adversarial enforcement efforts to protect a forest’s pristine ‘‘inner core.’’

Credit and liquidity components of corporate CDS spreads

This paper investigates the role of credit and liquidity factors in explaining corporate CDS price changes during normal and crisis periods. We find that liquidity risk is more important than firm-specific credit risk regardless of market conditions. Moreover, in the period prior to the recent “Great Recession” credit risk plays no role in explaining CDS price changes. The dominance of liquidity effects casts serious doubts on the relevance of CDS price changes as an indicator of default risk dynamics. Our results show how multiple liquidity factors including firm specific and aggregate liquidity proxies as well as an asymmetric information measure are critical determinants of CDS price variations. In particular, the impact of informed traders on the CDS price increases when markets are characterised by higher uncertainty, which supports concerns of insider trading during the crisis.

Shovel ready? An empirical investigation of stalled residential sites.

Drawing upon a national database of unimplemented planning permissions and 18 in-depth case studies, this paper provides both a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the phenomenon of stalled sites in England. The practical and conceptual difficulties of classifying sites as stalled are critically reviewed. From the literature, it is suggested that planning permission may not be implemented due to lack of financial viability, strategic behaviour by landowners and house-builders and other problems associated with the development process. Consistent with poor viability, the analysis of the national database indicates that a substantial proportion of the stalled sites is high density apartment development and/or is located in low house value areas. The case studies suggest that a combination of interlinked issues may need to be resolved before a planning permission can be implemented. These include; the sale of the land to house-builders, re-negotiation of the planning permission and, most importantly, improvement in housing market conditions.

An approach to develop flexible systems with organizational-interoperability requirements

Flexibility of information systems (IS) have been studied to improve the adaption in support of the business agility as the set of capabilities to compete more effectively and adapt to rapid changes in market conditions (Glossary of business agility terms, 2003). However, most of work on IS flexibility has been limited to systems architecture, ignoring the analysis of interoperability as a part of flexibility from the requirements. This paper reports a PhD project, which proposes an approach to develop IS with flexibility features, considering some challenges of flexibility in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) such as the lack of interoperability and the agility of their business. The motivation of this research are the high prices of IS in developing countries and the usefulness of organizational semiotics to support the analysis of requirements for IS. (Liu, 2005).

Which factors drive rental depreciation rates for office and industrial properties?

As new buildings are constructed in response to changes in technology or user requirements, the value of the existing stock will decline in relative terms. This is termed economic depreciation and it may be influenced by the age and quality of buildings, amount and timing of expenditure, and wider market and economic conditions. This study tests why individual assets experience different depreciation rates, applying panel regression techniques to 375 UK office and industrial assets. Results suggest that rental value depreciation rates reduce as buildings get older, while a composite measure of age and quality provides more explanation of depreciation than age alone. Furthermore, economic and local real estate market conditions are significant in explaining how depreciation rates change over time.

Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts

Existing empirical evidence has frequently observed that professional forecasters are conservative and display herding behaviour. Whilst a large number of papers have considered equities as well as macroeconomic series, few have considered the accuracy of forecasts in alternative asset classes such as real estate. We consider the accuracy of forecasts for the UK commercial real estate market over the period 1999-2011. The results illustrate that forecasters display a tendency to under-estimate growth rates during strong market conditions and over-estimate when the market is performing poorly. This conservatism not only results in smoothed estimates but also implies that forecasters display herding behaviour. There is also a marked difference in the relative accuracy of capital and total returns versus rental figures. Whilst rental growth forecasts are relatively accurate, considerable inaccuracy is observed with respect to capital value and total returns.

Social welfare analysis in a simple financial economy with risk regulation

In the last years, regulating agencies of rnany countries in the world, following recommendations of the Basel Committee, have compelled financiaI institutions to maintain minimum capital requirements to cover market risk. This paper investigates the consequences of such kind of regulation to social welfare and soundness of financiaI institutions through an equilibrium model. We show that the optimum level of regulation for each financiaI institution (the level that maximizes its utility) depends on its appetite for risk and some of them can perform better in a regulated economy. In addition, another important result asserts that under certain market conditions the financiaI fragility of an institution can be greater in a regulated econolny than in an unregulated one

Uma análise crítica da gestão ambiental na indústria química do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

O presente trabalho faz uma avaliação da gestão ambiental das indústrias químicas do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Dessa forma, procuramos relatar as principais ações instrumentos gerenciais disponíveis às organizações delineamos um quadro das idéias relativas ao desenvolvimento sustentável que deveriam permear todas as ações do gerente ambiental na indústria. partir das informações colhidas, avaliamos os aspectos primordiais dessas atividades como demandas por assessoria técnica; os aspectos ambientais relevantes; as ações implementadas; projetos inovações; as dificuldades para melhoria; registros sistemáticos; as ações externas as ações futuras; investimentos; os recursos humanos; aspectos do mercado e a legislação. Concluímos com uma análise sobre os diversos aspectos observados, sugerindo conceitos ações que ratificam, acrescentam ou alteram as ações gerenciais observadas.

Efeitos da utilização de hedges cambiais nos resultados de empresas não financeiras: uma abordagem empírica

A realização de negócios em um mundo globalizado implica em aumentar a exposição das empresas não-financeiras a diversos riscos de origem financeira como câmbio, commodities e taxas de juros e que, dependendo da evolução destas variáveis macroeconômicas, podem afetar significativamente os resultados destas empresas. Existem diversas teorias acadêmicas que abordam sobre os benefícios gerados por programas de gestão de riscos em empresas não-financeiras como redução dos custos de financial distress e custos de agência bem como o uso de estratégias de hedge para fins fiscais. Tais iniciativas contribuiriam, em última instância, para a criação de valor para o negócio e poderiam garantir uma melhor previsibilidade dos fluxos de caixa futuros, tornando as empresas menos vulneráveis a condições adversas de mercado. Este trabalho apresenta dois estudos de caso com empresas não-financeiras brasileiras que possuíam exposições em moeda estrangeira e que não foram identificadas operações com derivativos cambiais durante o período de 1999 a 2005 que foi caracterizado pela alta volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. Através de modelos de simulação, algumas estratégias com o uso de derivativos foram propostas para as exposições cambiais identificadas para cada empresa com o objetivo de avaliar os efeitos da utilização destes derivativos cambiais sobre os resultados das empresas no que se refere à agregação de valor para o negócio e redução de volatilidade dos fluxos de caixa esperados. O trabalho não visa recomendar estratégias de hedge para determinada situação de mercado mas apenas demonstra, de forma empírica, quais os resultados seriam obtidos caso certas estratégias fossem adotadas, sabendo-se que inúmeras outras poderiam ser criadas para a mesma situação de mercado. Os resultados sugerem alguns insights sobre a utilização de derivativos por empresas não-financeiras sendo um tema relativamente novo para empresas brasileiras.