Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thickness And Component Distributions Of Yttrium-Titanium Alloy Films In Electron-Beam Physical Vapor Deposition

Thickness and component distributions of large-area thin films are an issue of international concern in the field of material processing. The present work employs experiments and direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method to investigate three-dimensional low-density, non-equilibrium jets of yttrium and titanium vapor atoms in an electron-beams physical vapor deposition (EBPVD) system furnished with two or three electron-beams, and obtains their deposition thickness and component distributions onto 4-inch and 6-inch mono-crystal silicon wafers. The DSMC results are found in excellent agreement with our measurements, such as evaporation rates of yttrium and titanium measured in-situ by quartz crystal resonators, deposited film thickness distribution measured by Rutherford backscattering spectrometer (RBS) and surface profilometer and deposited film molar ratio distribution measured by RBS and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometer (ICP-AES). This can be taken as an indication that a combination of DSMC method with elaborate measurements may be satisfactory for predicting and designing accurately the transport process of EBPVD at the atomic level.

Effect of coal-over-coal reburn on furnace temperature and heat flux distributions in 1 MW tangentially fired furnace

The furnace temperature and heat flux distributions of 1 MW tangentially fired furnace were studied during coal-over-coal reburn, and the influences of the position of reburn nozzle and reburn fuel fraction on furnace temperature and heat flux distributions were investigated. Compared with the baseline, the flue gas temperature is 70–90 C lower in primary combustion and 130–150 C higher at furnace exit, and the variations of the flue gas temperature distributions along furnace height are slower. The temperature distribution along the width of furnace wall decreases with the increase of the relative furnace height. In the primary combustion zone and the reburn zone, the temperature and heat flux distributions of furnace wall are much non-uniform and asymmetric along the width of furnace wall, those of furnace wall in the burnout zone are relatively uniform, and the temperature non-uniformity coefficients of the primary combustion zone, the reburn zone and the burnout zone are 0.290, 0.100 and 0.031, respectively.

Observations hydrologique et dynamique le long de deux radiales du plateau continental ivoirien durant l'année focale 1983

In this report, vertical distributions of the temperature and horizontal velocity components of the currents, got from the two sections BELIER (305 1'W) and VRIDI (4°O 5'W), carried out once a week during the 1983 year, on the Continental shelf of Ivory Coast, are shown.

Numerical simulations of unsteady wet steam flows with non-equilibrium condensation in the nozzle and the steam turbine

Numerical techniques for non-equilibrium condensing flows are presented. Conservation equations for homogeneous gas-liquid two-phase compressible flows are solved by using a finite volume method based on an approximate Riemann solver. The phase change consists of the homogeneous nucleation and growth of existing droplets. Nucleation is computed with the classical Volmer-Frenkel model, corrected for the influence of the droplet temperature being higher than the steam temperature due to latent heat release. For droplet growth, two types of heat transfer model between droplets and the surrounding steam are used: a free molecular flow model and a semi-empirical two-layer model which is deemed to be valid over a wide range of Knudsen number. The computed pressure distribution and Sauter mean droplet diameters in a convergent-divergent (Laval) nozzle are compared with experimental data. Both droplet growth models capture qualitatively the pressure increases due to sudden heat release by the non-equilibrium condensation. However the agreement between computed and experimental pressure distributions is better for the two-layer model. The droplet diameter calculated by this model also agrees well with the experimental value, whereas that predicted by the free molecular model is too small. Condensing flows in a steam turbine cascade are calculated at different Mach numbers and inlet superheat conditions and are compared with experiments. Static pressure traverses downstream from the blade and pressure distributions on the blade surface agree well with experimental results in all cases. Once again, droplet diameters computed with the two-layer model give best agreement with the experiments. Droplet sizes are found to vary across the blade pitch due to the significant variation in expansion rate. Flow patterns including oblique shock waves and condensation-induced pressure increases are also presented and are similar to those shown in the experimental Schlieren photographs. Finally, calculations are presented for periodically unsteady condensing flows in a low expansion rate, convergent-divergent (Laval) nozzle. Depending on the inlet stagnation subcooling, two types of self-excited oscillations appear: a symmetric mode at lower inlet subcooling and an asymmetric mode at higher subcooling. Plots of oscillation frequency versus inlet sub-cooling exhibit a hysteresis loop, in accord with observations made by other researchers for moist air flow. Copyright © 2006 by ASME.

A probabilistic energy model for non-domestic building sectors applied to analysis of school buildings in greater London

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop models for large scale analysis of the stock. This research proposes a probabilistic, engineering-based, bottom-up model to address these issues. In a recent study we classified London's non-domestic buildings based on the service they provide, such as offices, retail premise, and schools, and proposed the creation of one probabilistic representational model per building type. This paper investigates techniques for the development of such models. The representational model is a statistical surrogate of a dynamic energy simulation (ES) model. We first identify the main parameters affecting energy consumption in a particular building sector/type by using sampling-based global sensitivity analysis methods, and then generate statistical surrogate models of the dynamic ES model within the dominant model parameters. Given a sample of actual energy consumption for that sector, we use the surrogate model to infer the distribution of model parameters by inverse analysis. The inferred distributions of input parameters are able to quantify the relative benefits of alternative energy saving measures on an entire building sector with requisite quantification of uncertainties. Secondary school buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three dimensional distributions of arsenic and platinum within NiSi contact and gate of an n-type transistor

Atom probe tomography was used to study the redistribution of platinum and arsenic atoms after Ni(Pt) silicidation of As-doped polycrystalline Si. These measurements were performed on a field-effect transistor and compared with those obtained in unpatterned region submitted to the same process. These results suggest that Pt and As redistribution during silicide formation is only marginally influenced by the confinement in microelectronic devices. On the contrary, there is a clear difference with the redistribution reported in the literature for the blanket wafers. Selective etching used to remove the non-reacted Ni(Pt) film after the first rapid heat treatment may induce this difference. © 2011 American Institute of Physics.

Numerical investigation of particle velocity distributions in aeolian sand transport

Particle velocity distribution in a blowing sand cloud is a reflection of saltation movement of many particles. Numerical analysis is performed for particle velocity distribution with a discrete particle model. The probability distributions of resultant particle velocity in the impact-entrainment process, particle horizontal and vertical velocities at different heights and the vertical velocity of ascending particles are analyzed. The probability distributions of resultant impact and lift-off velocities of saltating particles can be expressed by a log-normal function, and that of impact angle comply with an exponential function. The probability distribution of particle horizontal and vertical velocities at different heights shows a typical single-peak pattern. In the lower part of saltation layer, the particle horizontal velocity distribution is positively skewed. Further analysis shows that the probability density function of the vertical velocity of ascending particles is similar to the right-hand part of a normal distribution function, and a general equation is acquired for the probability density function of non-dimensional vertical velocity of ascending particles which is independent of diameter of saltating particles, wind strength and height. These distributions in the present numerical analysis are consistent with reported experimental results. The present investigation is important for understanding the saltation state in wind-blown sand movement. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

A non-Newtonian computational fluid dynamics study of the stencil printing process

This paper describes the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to simulate the macroscopic bulk motion of solder paste ahead of a moving squeegee blade in the stencil printing process during the manufacture of electronic components. The successful outcome of the stencil printing process is dependent on the interaction of numerous process parameters. A better understanding of these parameters is required to determine their relation to print quality and improve guidelines for process optimization. Various modelling techniques have arisen to analyse the flow behaviour of solder paste, including macroscopic studies of the whole mass of paste as well as microstructural analyses of the motion of individual solder particles suspended in the carrier fluid. This work builds on the knowledge gained to date from earlier analytical models and CFD investigations by considering the important non-Newtonian rheological properties of solder pastes which have been neglected in previous macroscopic studies. Pressure and velocity distributions are obtained from both Newtonian and non-Newtonian CFD simulations and evaluated against each other as well as existing established analytical models. Significant differences between the results are observed, which demonstrate the importance of modelling non-Newtonian properties for realistic representation of the flow behaviour of solder paste.

Nutrient Distributions In An Estuary - Evidence Of Chemical Precipitation Of Dissolved Silicate And Phosphate

Continuous autoanalytical recordings of the axial distributions of dissolved nitrate, silicate and phosphate in the influent freshwater and saline waters of the Tamar Estuary, south-west England have been obtained. Short-term variability in the distributions was assessed by repetitive profiling at approximately 3-h intervals on a single day and seasonal comparisons were obtained from ten surveys carried out between June 1977 and August 1978. Whereas nitrate is always essentially conserved throughout the upper estuary, the silicate- and phosphate-salinity relationships consistently indicate a non-biological removal of these nutrients within the low (0–10%) salinity range. Attempts to quantify precisely the degree of removal and to correlate this with changes in environmental properties (pH, turbidity, chlorophyll fluorescence, salinity, freshwater composition) were mainly inconclusive due to short-term fluctuations in the riverine concentrations of silicate and phosphate advected into the reactive region and to the rapid changes in turbidity brought about by tidally-induced resuspension and deposition of bottom sediment.

Identification and bisection of temporal durations and tone frequencies: Common models for temporal and non-temporal stimuli.

Two experiments examined identification and bisection of tones varying in temporal duration (Experiment 1) or frequency (Experiment 2). Absolute identification of both durations and frequencies was influenced by prior stimuli and by stimulus distribution. Stimulus distribution influenced bisection for both stimulus types consistently, with more positively skewed distributions producing lower bisection points. The effect of distribution was greater when the ratio of the largest to smallest stimulus magnitude was greater. A simple mathematical model, temporal range frequency theory, was applied. It is concluded that (a) similar principles describe identification of temporal durations and other stimulus dimensions and (b) temporal bisection point shifts can be understood in terms of psychophysical principles independently developed in nontemporal domains, such as A. Parducci's (1965) range frequency theory.

Non-linear conductance of disordered quantum wires

The self-consistent electron potential in a current-carrying disordered quantum wire is spatially inhomogeneous due to the formation of resistivity dipoles across scattering centres. In this paper it is argued that these inhomogeneities in the potential result in a suppression of the differential conductance of such a wire at finite applied voltage. A semi-classical argument allows this suppression, quadratic in the voltage, to be related directly to the amount of intrinsic defect scattering in the wire. This result is then tested against numerical calculations.