The systematic profiling of false identity documents: method validation and performance evaluation using seizures known to originate from common and different sources

False identity documents constitute a potential powerful source of forensic intelligence because they are essential elements of transnational crime and provide cover for organized crime. In previous work, a systematic profiling method using false documents' visual features has been built within a forensic intelligence model. In the current study, the comparison process and metrics lying at the heart of this profiling method are described and evaluated. This evaluation takes advantage of 347 false identity documents of four different types seized in two countries whose sources were known to be common or different (following police investigations and dismantling of counterfeit factories). Intra-source and inter-sources variations were evaluated through the computation of more than 7500 similarity scores. The profiling method could thus be validated and its performance assessed using two complementary approaches to measuring type I and type II error rates: a binary classification and the computation of likelihood ratios. Very low error rates were measured across the four document types, demonstrating the validity and robustness of the method to link documents to a common source or to differentiate them. These results pave the way for an operational implementation of a systematic profiling process integrated in a developed forensic intelligence model.

Disentangling the link between health and social capital: A comparison of immigrant and native-born populations in Spain

An increasing body of research has pointed to the relevance of social capital in studying a great variety of socio-economic phenomena, ranging from economics growth and development to educational attainment and public health. Conceptually, our paper is framed within the debates about the possible links between health and social capital, on one hand, and within the hypotheses regarding the importance of social and community networks in all stages of the dynamics of international migration, on the other hand. Our primary objective is to explore the ways social relations contribute to health differences between the immigrants and the native-born population of Spain. We also try to reveal differences in the nature of the social networks of foreign-born, as compared to that of the native-born persons. The empirical analysis is based on an individual-level data coming from the 2006 Spanish Health Survey, which contains a representative sample of the immigrant population. To assess the relationship between various health indicators (self-assessed health, chronic conditions and long-term illness) and social capital, controlling for other covariates, we estimate multilevel models separately for the two population groups of interest. In the estimates we distinguish between individual and community-level social capital. While the Health Survey contains information that allows us to define individual social capital measures, the collective indicators come from other official sources. In particular, for the subsample of immigrants, we proxy community-level networks and relationships by variables contained in the Spanish National Survey of Immigrants 2007. The results obtained so far point to the relevance of social capital as a covariate in the health equation, although, the significance varies according to the specific health indicator used. Additionally, and contrary to what is expected, immigrants’ social networks seem to be inferior to those of the native-born population in many aspects; and they also affect immigrant’s health to a lesser extent. Policy implications of the findings are discussed. Keywords: health status, social capital, immigration, Spain

Direct numerical simulations of interface dynamics to link capillary pressure and total surface energy

The flow of two immiscible fluids through a porous medium depends on the complex interplay between gravity, capillarity, and viscous forces. The interaction between these forces and the geometry of the medium gives rise to a variety of complex flow regimes that are difficult to describe using continuum models. Although a number of pore-scale models have been employed, a careful investigation of the macroscopic effects of pore-scale processes requires methods based on conservation principles in order to reduce the number of modeling assumptions. In this work we perform direct numerical simulations of drainage by solving Navier-Stokes equations in the pore space and employing the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the fluid-fluid interface. After demonstrating that the method is able to deal with large viscosity contrasts and model the transition from stable flow to viscous fingering, we focus on the macroscopic capillary pressure and we compare different definitions of this quantity under quasi-static and dynamic conditions. We show that the difference between the intrinsic phase-average pressures, which is commonly used as definition of Darcy-scale capillary pressure, is subject to several limitations and it is not accurate in presence of viscous effects or trapping. In contrast, a definition based on the variation of the total surface energy provides an accurate estimate of the macroscopic capillary pressure. This definition, which links the capillary pressure to its physical origin, allows a better separation of viscous effects and does not depend on the presence of trapped fluid clusters.

Studies on integrating kinematic design method with mechanical systems simulation techniques

Theultimate goal of any research in the mechanism/kinematic/design area may be called predictive design, ie the optimisation of mechanism proportions in the design stage without requiring extensive life and wear testing. This is an ambitious goal and can be realised through development and refinement of numerical (computational) technology in order to facilitate the design analysis and optimisation of complex mechanisms, mechanical components and systems. As a part of the systematic design methodology this thesis concentrates on kinematic synthesis (kinematic design and analysis) methods in the mechanism synthesis process. The main task of kinematic design is to find all possible solutions in the form of structural parameters to accomplish the desired requirements of motion. Main formulations of kinematic design can be broadly divided to exact synthesis and approximate synthesis formulations. The exact synthesis formulation is based in solving n linear or nonlinear equations in n variables and the solutions for the problem areget by adopting closed form classical or modern algebraic solution methods or using numerical solution methods based on the polynomial continuation or homotopy. The approximate synthesis formulations is based on minimising the approximation error by direct optimisation The main drawbacks of exact synthesis formulationare: (ia) limitations of number of design specifications and (iia) failure in handling design constraints- especially inequality constraints. The main drawbacks of approximate synthesis formulations are: (ib) it is difficult to choose a proper initial linkage and (iib) it is hard to find more than one solution. Recentformulations in solving the approximate synthesis problem adopts polynomial continuation providing several solutions, but it can not handle inequality const-raints. Based on the practical design needs the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis with two exact and an unlimited number of approximate positions has also been developed. The solutions space is presented as a ground pivot map but thepole between the exact positions cannot be selected as a ground pivot. In this thesis the exact synthesis problem of planar mechanism is solved by generating all possible solutions for the optimisation process ¿ including solutions in positive dimensional solution sets - within inequality constraints of structural parameters. Through the literature research it is first shown that the algebraic and numerical solution methods ¿ used in the research area of computational kinematics ¿ are capable of solving non-parametric algebraic systems of n equations inn variables and cannot handle the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets. In this thesis the problem of positive-dimensional solutionsets is solved adopting the main principles from mathematical research area of algebraic geometry in solving parametric ( in the mathematical sense that all parameter values are considered ¿ including the degenerate cases ¿ for which the system is solvable ) algebraic systems of n equations and at least n+1 variables.Adopting the developed solution method in solving the dyadic equations in direct polynomial form in two- to three-precision-points it has been algebraically proved and numerically demonstrated that the map of the ground pivots is ambiguousand that the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets can be solved. The positive-dimensional solution sets associated with the poles might contain physically meaningful solutions in the form of optimal defectfree mechanisms. Traditionally the mechanism optimisation of hydraulically driven boommechanisms is done at early state of the design process. This will result in optimal component design rather than optimal system level design. Modern mechanismoptimisation at system level demands integration of kinematic design methods with mechanical system simulation techniques. In this thesis a new kinematic design method for hydraulically driven boom mechanism is developed and integrated in mechanical system simulation techniques. The developed kinematic design method is based on the combinations of two-precision-point formulation and on optimisation ( with mathematical programming techniques or adopting optimisation methods based on probability and statistics ) of substructures using calculated criteria from the system level response of multidegree-of-freedom mechanisms. Eg. by adopting the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis in direct optimisation (using mathematical programming techniques) with two exact positions and an unlimitednumber of approximate positions the drawbacks of (ia)-(iib) has been cancelled.The design principles of the developed method are based on the design-tree -approach of the mechanical systems and the design method ¿ in principle ¿ is capable of capturing the interrelationship between kinematic and dynamic synthesis simultaneously when the developed kinematic design method is integrated with the mechanical system simulation techniques.

The Significance of Business Exit for Future Entrepreneurial Activity

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of business exits on future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity at the macroeconomic level. Design/methodology/approach: This research uses the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data for 41 countries and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to carry out the analysis. The paper differentiates the effect of the two components of total entrepreneurial activity, and the two motivations for it – opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. Findings: The results presented here show a positive and significant effect of the coefficient associated with exits in all models. This means that the levels of entrepreneurial activity exceed business exits. The robustness of the models are tested, including other variables such as the fear of failure, the Gross Domestic Product, role models, entrepreneurial skills and the unemployment variables. The main hypothesis which stated that at national level business exits imply greater rates of opportunity-driven entrepreneurship is corroborated. Originality/value: One would expect that unemployment rates would imply higher levels of necessity entrepreneurship. However, results show that unemployment rates do in fact favour opportunity entrepreneurship levels. This could be due to those government policies that are aimed at promoting entrepreneurship through the capitalization of unemployment to be totally invested in a new start-up. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first panel data study to link previous exit rates to future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity. Keywords: Entrepreneurship, business exits, social values, industrial organization Paper type: Research paper

Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?

[spa] La estimación del impacto del tamaño de la populación sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este artículo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando métodos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 países del África Sub-sahariana en el período 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la población en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.

Markkinoinnin seuranta - Case Telia Finland

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten järjestetään yritysmarkkinoinnin seurantamalli sekä seurannan tietojärjestelmätuki. Erityistä huomiota kiinnitettiin markkinoinnin seurannan ja liiketoimintastrategian kytkökseen. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin case-tutkimusta. Käsittely oli lineaaris-analyyttinen. Markkinoinnin seurannan tietojärjestelmätuen kehittämisen osalta tutkimus omaa myös jonkin verran systeemianalyyttisiä piirteitä. Case-tutkimuksen tiedonhankinnassa käytettiin yrityksen markkinointihenkilöille jaettua kyselytutkimusta. Markkinoinnin seuranta jaoteltiin strategisen tason ja operatiivisen tason seurantaan. Tutkimuksessa todettiin, että liiketoiminnan kilpailuympäristö, valittu kilpailustrategia ja yrityksen elinkaariasema vaikuttavat liiketoimintastrategiaan ja sitä kautta markkinoinnin seurannan järjestämiseen ja että markkinoinnin strategisen tason seurannan tavoitteena on varmistaa, että markkinointitoiminta toteuttaa valittua liiketoimintastrategiaa. Markkinoinnin operatiivisen tason seurannan tehtäväksi todettiin yrityksen markkinointitoiminnan myynnillisten sekä taloudellisten tulosten, sekä kannattavuuden ja tehokkuuden seuranta ja raportointi. Yritysmarkkinoinnin strategisen tason seurantaan soveltuu parhaiten eteenpäinkytkentäinen, tavoiteltavia tuloksia edeltävien muutosten seurantaan keskittyvä malli. Markkinoinnin operatiiivisen tason seurantaan soveltuu laajan markkinoinnin seurannan perusmittariston sisältävä malli, jolla voidaan palvella nykyisiä seurannan tarpeita ja laatia tarvittaessa uusia seurantakokonaisuuksia. Yritysmarkkinoinnin seurannan tietojärjestelmätuen järjestämiseen soveltuu parhaiten asiakastietokantapohjainen tietojärjestelmämalli. Näin voidaan hallita asiakkaaseen kohdistetut markkinointitoimenpiteet sekä niiden seuranta. Case-tutkimus vahvisti tarpeen kehittää kokonaisvaltainen suunnitelma markkinoinnin strategisen ja operatiivisen tason seurannasta sekä sitä tukevista tietojärjestelmistä. Ilman kokonaissunnitelmaa seuranta muodostuu organisaatioyksiköittäin ja seuranta-alueittain epätasaiseksi, eikä yrityksen asemasta markkinoilla ole muodostettavissa kokonaiskuvaa.

Selecting the most relevant variables for anaerobic digestion imbalances : Two case studies

In this study, a wrapper approach was applied to objectively select the most important variables related to two different anaerobic digestion imbalances, acidogenic states and foaming. This feature selection method, implemented in artificial neural networks (ANN), was performed using input and output data from a fully instrumented pilot plant (1 m 3 upflow fixed bed digester). Results for acidogenic states showed that pH, volatile fatty acids, and inflow rate were the most relevant variables. Results for foaming showed that inflow rate and total organic carbon were among the relevant variables, both of which were related to the feed loading of the digester. Because there is not a complete agreement on the causes of foaming, these results highlight the role of digester feeding patterns in the development of foaming

Association of Hematological Variables with Team-Sport Specific Fitness Performance.

PURPOSE: We investigated association of hematological variables with specific fitness performance in elite team-sport players. METHODS: Hemoglobin mass (Hbmass) was measured in 25 elite field hockey players using the optimized (2 min) CO-rebreathing method. Hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]), hematocrit and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) were analyzed in venous blood. Fitness performance evaluation included a repeated-sprint ability (RSA) test (8 x 20 m sprints, 20 s of rest) and the Yo-Yo intermittent recovery level 2 (YYIR2). RESULTS: Hbmass was largely correlated (r = 0.62, P<0.01) with YYIR2 total distance covered (YYIR2TD) but not with any RSA-derived parameters (r ranging from -0.06 to -0.32; all P>0.05). [Hb] and MCHC displayed moderate correlations with both YYIR2TD (r = 0.44 and 0.41; both P<0.01) and RSA sprint decrement score (r = -0.41 and -0.44; both P<0.05). YYIR2TD correlated with RSA best and total sprint times (r = -0.46, P<0.05 and -0.60, P<0.01; respectively), but not with RSA sprint decrement score (r = -0.19, P>0.05). CONCLUSION: Hbmass is positively correlated with specific aerobic fitness, but not with RSA, in elite team-sport players. Additionally, the negative relationships between YYIR2 and RSA tests performance imply that different hematological mechanisms may be at play. Overall, these results indicate that these two fitness tests should not be used interchangeably as they reflect different hematological mechanisms.

Inférence de source de traces d'essence retrouvées dans des débris d'incendie: Evaluation de la contribution de la chromatographie en phase gazeuse couplée à la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique

Lorsque de l'essence est employée pour allumer et/ou propager un incendie, l'inférence de la source de l'essence peut permettre d'établir un lien entre le sinistre et une source potentielle. Cette inférence de la source constitue une alternative intéressante pour fournir des éléments de preuve dans ce type d'événements où les preuves matérielles laissées par l'auteur sont rares. Le but principal de cette recherche était le développement d'une méthode d'analyse de spécimens d'essence par GC-IRMS, méthode pas routinière et peu étudiée en science forensique, puis l'évaluation de son potentiel à inférer la source de traces d'essence en comparaison aux performances de la GC-MS. Un appareillage permettant d'analyser simultanément les échantillons par MS et par IRMS a été utilisé dans cette recherche. Une méthode d'analyse a été développée, optimisée et validée pour cet appareillage. Par la suite, des prélèvements d'essence provenant d'un échantillonnage conséquent et représentatif du marché de la région lausannoise ont été analysés. Finalement, les données obtenues ont été traitées et interprétées à l'aide de méthodes chimiométriques. Les analyses effectuées ont permis de montrer que la méthodologie mise en place, aussi bien pour la composante MS que pour l'IRMS, permet de différencier des échantillons d'essence non altérée provenant de différentes stations-service. Il a également pu être démontré qu'à chaque nouveau remplissage des cuves d'une station-service, la composition de l'essence distribuée par cette station est quasi unique. La GC-MS permet une meilleure différenciation d'échantillons prélevés dans différentes stations, alors que la GC-IRMS est plus performante lorsqu'il s'agit de comparer des échantillons collectés après chacun des remplissages d'une cuve. Ainsi, ces résultats indiquent que les deux composantes de la méthode peuvent être complémentaires pour l'analyse d'échantillons d'essence non altérée. Les résultats obtenus ont également permis de montrer que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence ne compromet pas la possibilité de grouper des échantillons de même source par GC-MS. Il est toutefois nécessaire d'effectuer une sélection des variables afin d'éliminer celles qui sont influencées par le phénomène d'évaporation. Par contre, les analyses effectuées ont montré que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence a une forte influence sur la composition isotopique des échantillons. Cette influence est telle qu'il n'est pas possible, même en effectuant une sélection des variables, de grouper correctement des échantillons évaporés par GC-IRMS. Par conséquent, seule la composante MS de la méthodologie mise en place permet d'inférer la source d'échantillons d'essence évaporée. _________________________________________________________________________________________________ When gasoline is used to start and / or propagate an arson, source inference of gasoline can allow to establish a link between the fire and a potential source. This source inference is an interesting alternative to provide evidence in this type of events where physical evidence left by the author are rare. The main purpose of this research was to develop a GC-IRMS method for the analysis of gasoline samples, a non-routine method and little investigated in forensic science, and to evaluate its potential to infer the source of gasoline traces compared to the GC-MS performances. An instrument allowing to analyze simultaneously samples by MS and IRMS was used in this research. An analytical method was developed, optimized and validated for this instrument. Thereafter, gasoline samples from a large sampling and representative of the Lausanne area market were analyzed. Finally, the obtained data were processed and interpreted using chemometric methods. The analyses have shown that the methodology, both for MS and for IRMS, allow to differentiate unweathered gasoline samples from different service stations. It has also been demonstrated that each new filling of the tanks of a station generates an almost unique composition of gasoline. GC-MS achieves a better differentiation of samples coming from different stations, while GC-IRMS is more efficient to distinguish samples collected after each filling of a tank. Thus, these results indicate that the two components of the method can be complementary to the analysis of unweathered gasoline samples. The results have also shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples does not compromise the possibility to group samples coming from the same source by GC-MS. It is however necessary to make a selection of variables in order to eliminate those which are influenced by the evaporation. On the other hand, the carried out analyses have shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples has such a strong influence on the isotopic composition of the samples that it is not possible, even by performing a selection of variables, to properly group evaporated samples by GC-IRMS. Therefore, only the MS allows to infer the source of evaporated gasoline samples.

A nonparametric method for the measurement of size diversity with emphasis on data standardization

The most suitable method for estimation of size diversity is investigated. Size diversity is computed on the basis of the Shannon diversity expression adapted for continuous variables, such as size. It takes the form of an integral involving the probability density function (pdf) of the size of the individuals. Different approaches for the estimation of pdf are compared: parametric methods, assuming that data come from a determinate family of pdfs, and nonparametric methods, where pdf is estimated using some kind of local evaluation. Exponential, generalized Pareto, normal, and log-normal distributions have been used to generate simulated samples using estimated parameters from real samples. Nonparametric methods include discrete computation of data histograms based on size intervals and continuous kernel estimation of pdf. Kernel approach gives accurate estimation of size diversity, whilst parametric methods are only useful when the reference distribution have similar shape to the real one. Special attention is given for data standardization. The division of data by the sample geometric mean is proposedas the most suitable standardization method, which shows additional advantages: the same size diversity value is obtained when using original size or log-transformed data, and size measurements with different dimensionality (longitudes, areas, volumes or biomasses) may be immediately compared with the simple addition of ln k where kis the dimensionality (1, 2, or 3, respectively). Thus, the kernel estimation, after data standardization by division of sample geometric mean, arises as the most reliable and generalizable method of size diversity evaluation

Percepción de la intensidad al esfuerzo: un estudio multi-method en actividad física.

Este estudio aborda un doble objetivo: a) conocer si existe progresión signi+cativa entre tres valores correspondientes al índice de Borg elicitados por jóvenes deportistas con relación a tres actividades de intensidad creciente; b) analizar la relación existente entre el índice de masa corporal (IMC) de los participantes con los valores de frecuencia cardíaca (FC) y la percepción de intensidad del esfuerzo (RPE). Método: Treinta y cinco deportistas jóvenes con una edad media de 18 y 28 años (21±0,5), realizaron 3 actividades que exigían una intensidad creciente de ejercicio: leve, moderada y vigorosa (ACSM, 2011). Se controló la frecuencia cardíaca mediante el dispositivo telemétrico Polar Team 2 y al +nalizar las tres actividades se administró tres veces la escala de Borg para obtener la RPE para cada actividad. Se ha complementado la metodología observacional indirecta (índices de Borg) con la metodología cuasiexperimental para obtener inferencias causales mediante un diseño sincrónico de variable de asignación conocida y grupo único. Se ha realizado un análisis de regresión múltiple, considerando la FC y la RPE como variables predictoras del IMC. Resultados: la RPE es creciente, acorde a las actividades, en todos los participantes, aunque en ningún caso la tendencia es estadísticamente signi+cativa. Prácticamente la cuarta parte del IMC se puede explicar por la FC y la RPE puesto que los participantes que tienen valores más altos de FC y de índice de Borg tienen también mayores valores de IMC. Este estudio puede proporcionar una visión de evaluación integrada entre los factores IMC, FC y la RPE, que suelen investigarse de modo aislado.

The effects of social networks on work-team effectiveness

This is a study of team social networks, their antecedents and outcomes. In focusing attention on the structural configuration of the team this research contributes to a new wave of thinking concerning group social capital. The research site was a random sample of Finnish work organisations. The data consisted of 499 employees in 76 teams representing 48 different organisations. A systematic literature review and quantitative methods were used in conducting the research: the former primarily to establish the current theoretical position on the relationships among the variables and the latter to test these relationships. Social network analysis was the primary method used in identifying the social-network relations among the work-team members. The first and key contribution of this study is that it relates the structuralnetwork properties of work teams to behavioural outcomes, attitudinal outcomes and, ultimately, team performance. Moreover, it shows that addressing attitudinal outcomes is also important in terms of team performance; attitudinal outcomes (team identity) mediated the relationship between the team’s performance and its social network. The second contribution is that it examines the possible antecedents of the social structure. It is thus one response to Salancik’s (1995) call for a network theory in that it explains why certain network characteristics exist. Itdemonstrates that irrespective of whether or not a team is heterogeneous in terms of age or gender, educational diversity may protect it from centralisation. However, heterogeneity in terms of gender turned out to have a negative impact on density. Thirdly, given the observation that the benefits of (team) networks are typically theorised and modelled without reference to the nature of the relationships comprising the structure, the study directly tested whether team knowledge mediated the effects of instrumental and expressive network relationships on team performance. Furthermore, with its focus on expressive networks that link the workplace to a more informal world, which have been rather neglected in previous research, it enhances knowledge of teams andnetworks. The results indicate that knowledge sharing fully mediates the influence of complementarities between dense and fragmented instrumental network relationships, thus providing empirical validation of the implicit understanding that networks transfer knowledge. Fourthly, the study findings suggest that an optimal configuration of the work-team social-network structure combines both bridging and bonding social relationships.

Development and application of spectrophotometric method for the determination of cefaclor in pharmaceutical formulations

A simple, fast and sensitive spectrophotometric method for the determination of cefaclor in pharmaceutical raw and dosage forms based on reaction with ninhydrin is developed, optimized and validated. The purple color (Ruhemenn's purple) that resulted from the reaction was stabilized and measured at 560 nm. Beer's law is obeyed in the concentration range of 4-80 µg mL-1 with molar absorptivity of 1.42 × 10(5) L mole-1 cm-1. All variables including the reagent concentration, heating time, reaction temperature, color stability period, and cefaclor/ninhydrin ratio were studied in order to optimize the reaction conditions. No interference was observed from common pharmaceutical adjuvant. The developed method is easy to use, accurate and highly cost-effective for routine studies relative to HPLC and other techniques.

Development of a flotation method for preconcentration-separation of trace amounts of some metal ions in plant tissues prior to their FAAS determinations

An efficient flotation method based on the combination of flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) and separation and preconcentration step for determination of Cr3+, Cu 2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Zn2+, Cd 2+, Fe3+ and Pb2+ ions in various real samples by the possibility of applying bis(2-hydroxyacetophenone)-1,4-butanediimine (BHABDI) as a new collector was studied. The influence of pH, amount of BHABDI as collector, sample matrix, type and amount of eluting agent, type and amount of surfactant as floating agent, ionic strength and air flow rates i.e. variables affecting the efficiency of the extraction system was evaluated. It is ascertained that metal ions such as iron can be separated simultaneously from matrix in the presence of 0.012 mM ligand, 0.025% (w/v) of CTAB to a test sample of 750 mL at pH 6.5. These ions can be eluted quantitatively with 6 mL of 1.0 mol L-1 HNO3 in methanol which lead to the enrichment factor of 125. The detection limits for analyte ions were in the range of 1.3-2.4 ng mL-1. The method has been successfully applied for determination of trace amounts of ions in various real samples.