An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Antioxidant behaviour of thia fatty acids

Eight thia fatty acids and other sulfides have been studied as inhibitors of autoxidation of arachidonic acid. The inhibitors extend the lag phase of the oxidation, to varying degrees. A carboxyl group in the vicinity of the sulfur reduces the antioxidant activity, while unsaturated sulfides are more effective than their saturated analogues. The results are consistent with the sulfides acting to reduce fatty acid hydroperoxides, which otherwise accumulate during the early stages of reaction and propagate the free-radical oxidation process.

Activation of visual areas during the attentional blink

When two targets are presented in rapid succession, identification of the first target is nearly perfect while identification of the second is severely impaired at shorter inter-target lags, and then gradually improves as lag increases. This second-target deficit is known as the attentional blink (AB). Numerous studies have implicated competition for access to higher-order processing mechanisms as the primary cause of the AB. However, relatively few studies have directly examined how the AB modulates activity in specific brain areas. To this end, we used fMRI to measure activation in the occipital and parietal cortices (including V1, V2, and area MT) during an AB task. Participants were presented with an initial target of oriented line segments embedded in a central stream of letter distractors. This central target was followed 100 - 700 ms later by a peripheral ‘X’ presented at one of four locations along with three ‘+’ distractors. All peripheral items were presented in the centre of a small field of moving dots. Participants made non-speeded judgments about line-segment orientation and the location of the second target at the end of a trial and to ignore all other stimuli. The results showed a robust AB characterised by a linear improvement in second-target accuracy as lag increased. This pattern of behavioural results was mirrored by changes in activation patterns across a number of visual areas indicating robust modulation of brain activity by the AB.

RANKL is a mediator of bone resorption in idiopathic hypercalciuria

Background and objectives: This study aimed to determine the expression of osteoprotegerin, receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand, interleukin-la, transforming growth factor-beta, and basic fibroblast growth factor in stone-forming patients with idiopathic hypercalciuria. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: Immunohistochemical analysis was performed in undecalcified bone samples previously obtained from 36 transiliac bone biopsies of patients who had idiopathic hypercalciuria and whose histomorphometry had shown lower bone volume, increased bone resorption, and prolonged mineralization lag time. Results: Bone expression of receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand and osteoprotegerin was significantly higher in patients with idiopathic hypercalciuria versus control subjects. Transforming growth factor-beta immunostaining was lower in patients with idiopathic hypercalciuria than in control subjects and correlated directly with mineralization surface. Interleukin-la and basic fibroblast growth factor staining did not differ between groups. Receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand bone expression was significantly higher in patients who had idiopathic hypercalciuria and exhibited higher versus normal bone resorption. Conclusion: A higher expression of receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand in bone tissue suggests that increased bone resorption in patients with idiopathic hypercalciuria is mediated by receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand. Osteoprotegerin bone expression might have been secondarily increased in an attempt to counteract the actions of receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand. The low bone expression of transforming growth factor-beta could contribute to the delayed mineralization found in such patients.

The association between air pollution and blood pressure in traffic controllers in Santo Andre, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: Urban air pollutants are associated with cardiovascular events. Traffic controllers are at high risk for pollution exposure during outdoor work shifts. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between air pollution and systemic blood pressure in traffic controllers during their work shifts. Methods: This cross-sectional study enrolled 19 male traffic controllers from Santo Andre city (Sao Paulo, Brazil) who were 30-60 years old and exposed to ambient air during outdoor work shifts. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure readings were measured every 15 min by an Ambulatory Arterial Blood Pressure Monitoring device. Hourly measurements (lags of 0-5 h) and the moving averages (2-5 h) of particulate matter (PM(10)), ozone (O(3)) ambient concentrations and the acquired daily minimum temperature and humidity means from the Sao Paulo State Environmental Agency were correlated with both systolic and diastolic blood pressures. Statistical methods included descriptive analysis and linear mixed effect models adjusted for temperature, humidity, work periods and time of day. Results: Interquartile increases of PM(10) (33 mu g/m(3)) and O(3) (49 mu g/m(3)) levels were associated with increases in all arterial pressure parameters, ranging from 1.06 to 2.53 mmHg. PM(10) concentration was associated with early effects (lag 0), mainly on systolic blood pressure. However, O(3) was weakly associated most consistently with diastolic blood pressure and with late cumulative effects. Conclusions: Santo Andre traffic controllers presented higher blood pressure readings while working their outdoor shifts during periods of exposure to ambient pollutant fluctuations. However, PM(10) and O(3) induced cardiovascular effects demonstrated different time courses and end-point behaviors and probably acted through different mechanisms. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Air Pollution and Mortality in Latin America The Role of Education

Background: People with less education in Europe, Asia, and the United States are at higher risk of mortality associated with daily and longer-term air pollution exposure. We examined whether educational level modified associations between mortality and ambient particulate pollution (PM(10)) in Latin America, using several timescales. Methods: The study population included people who died during 1998-2002 in Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; and Sao Paulo, Brazil. We fit city-specific robust Poisson regressions to daily deaths for nonexternal-cause mortality, and then stratified by age, sex, and educational attainment among adults older than age 21 years (none, some primary, some secondary, and high school degree or more). Predictor variables included a natural spline for temporal trend, linear PM(10) and apparent temperature at matching lags, and day-of-week indicators. We evaluated PM(10) for lags 0 and I day, and fit an unconstrained distributed lag model for cumulative 6-day effects. Results: The effects of a 10-mu g/m(3) increment in lag 1 PM(10) on all nonextemal-cause adult mortality were for Mexico City 0.39% (95% confidence interval = 0.131/-0.65%); Sao Paulo 1.04% (0.71%-1.38%); and for Santiago 0.61% (0.40%-0.83%. We found cumulative 6-day effects for adult mortality in Santiago (0.86% [0.48%-1.23%]) and Sao Paulo (1.38% [0.85%-1.91%]), but no consistent gradients by educational status. Conclusions: PM(10) had important short- and intermediate-term effects on mortality in these Latin American cities, but associations did not differ consistently by educational level.

Aerobic exercise training improves the role of high-density lipoprotein antioxidant and reduces plasma lipid peroxidation in type 2 diabetes mellitus

In this study, we analyzed the effect of aerobic exercise training (AET) and of a single bout of exercise on plasma oxidative stress and on antioxidant defenses in type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and in healthy control subjects (C). DM and C did not differ regarding triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), insulin, and HOMA index at baseline and after AET. To measure the lag time for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) oxidation (LAG) and the maximal rate of conjugated diene formation (MCD), participants` plasma HDL(2) and HDL(3) were incubated with LDL from pooled healthy donors` plasma. In the presence of HDL(3), both LAG and MCD were similar in C and DM, but only in DM did AET improve LAG and reduce MCD. In the presence of HDL(2), the lower baseline LAG in DM equaled C after AET. MCD was unchanged in DM after AET, but was lower than C only after AET. Furthermore, after AET plasma thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances were reduced only in DM subjects. Despite not modifying the total plasma antioxidant status and serum paraoxonase-1 activity in both groups, AET lowered the plasma lipid peroxides, corrected the HDL(2), and improved the HDL(3) antioxidant efficiency in DM independent of the changes in blood glucose, insulin, and plasma HDL concentration and composition.

Microscopic origin of non-Gaussian distributions of financial returns

In this paper we study the possible microscopic origin of heavy-tailed probability density distributions for the price variation of financial instruments. We extend the standard log-normal process to include another random component in the so-called stochastic volatility models. We study these models under an assumption, akin to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, in which the volatility has already relaxed to its equilibrium distribution and acts as a background to the evolution of the price process. In this approximation, we show that all models of stochastic volatility should exhibit a scaling relation in the time lag of zero-drift modified log-returns. We verify that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average index indeed follows this scaling. We then focus on two popular stochastic volatility models, the Heston and Hull-White models. In particular, we show that in the Hull-White model the resulting probability distribution of log-returns in this approximation corresponds to the Tsallis (t-Student) distribution. The Tsallis parameters are given in terms of the microscopic stochastic volatility model. Finally, we show that the log-returns for 30 years Dow Jones index data is well fitted by a Tsallis distribution, obtaining the relevant parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Etiopathogenesis of Hepatic Osteodystrophy in Wistar Rats with Cholestatic Liver Disease

The pathophysiology of hepatic osteodystrophy (HO) remains poorly understood. Our aim was to evaluate bone histomorphometry, biomechanical properties, and the role of the growth hormone (GH)/insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) system in the onset of this disorder. Forty-six male Wistar rats were divided into two groups: sham-operated (SO, n = 23) and bile duct-ligated (BDL, n = 23). Rats were killed on day 30 postoperatively. Immunohistochemical expression of IGF-I and GH receptor was determined in liver tissue and in the proximal growth plate cartilage of the left tibia. Histomorphometric analysis was performed in the right tibia, and the right femur was used for biomechanical analysis. The maximal force at fracture and the stiffness of the mid-shaft femur were, respectively, 53% and 24% lower in BDL compared to SO. Histomorphometric measurements showed low cancellous bone volume and decreased cancellous bone connectivity in BDL, compatible with osteoporosis. This group also showed increased mineralization lag time, indicating disturbance in bone mineralization. Serum levels of IGF-I were lower in BDL (basal 1,816 +/- A 336 vs. 30 days 1,062 +/- A 191 ng/ml, P < 0.0001). BDL also showed higher IGF-I expression in the liver tissue but lower IGF-I and GH receptor expression in growth plate cartilage than SO. Osteoporosis is the most important feature of HO; BDL rats show striking signs of reduced bone volume and decreased bone strength, as early as after 1 month of cholestasis. The endocrine and autocrine-paracrine IGF-I systems are deeply affected by cholestasis. Further studies will be necessary to establish their role in the pathogenesis of HO.

Albendazole-praziquantel interaction in healthy volunteers: kinetic disposition, metabolism and enantioselectivity

center dot Pharmacokinetic interactions between albendazole and praziquantel are based on plasma concentrations of the enantiomeric mixture of both drugs with contradictory data, although the antiparasitic activity arises from (-)-(R)-praziquantel and (+)-albendazole sulfoxide. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS center dot The pharmacokinetic interaction between albendazole and praziquantel is enantioselective. Praziquantel increased the plasma concentrations of (+)-albendazole sulfoxide more than those of (-)-albendazole sulfoxide and the administration of albendazole did not change the kinetic disposition of (+)-(S)-praziquantel, but increased the plasma concentration of (-)-(R)-praziquantel. AIM This study investigated the kinetic disposition, metabolism and enantioselectivity of albendazole (ABZ) and praziquantel (PZQ) administered alone and in combination to healthy volunteers. METHODS A randomized crossover study was carried out in three phases (n = 9), in which some volunteers started in phase 1 (400 mg ABZ), others in phase 2 (1500 mg PZQ), and the remaining volunteers in phase 3 (400 mg ABZ + 1500 mg PZQ). Serial blood samples were collected from 0-48 h after drug administration. Pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated using a monocompartmental model with lag time and were analyzed using the Wilcoxon test; P < 0.05. RESULTS The administration of PZQ increased the plasma concentrations of (+)-ASOX (albendazole sulphoxide) by 264% (AUC 0.99 vs. 2.59 mu g ml-1 h), (-)-ASOX by 358% (0.14 vs. 0.50 mu g ml-1 h) and albendazole sulfone (ASON) by 187% (0.17 vs. 0.32 mu g ml-1 h). The administration of ABZ did not change the kinetic disposition of (+)-(S)-PZQ (-)-(R)-4-OHPZQ or (+)-(S)-4-OHPZQ, but increased the plasma concentration of (-)-(R)-PZQ by 64.77% (AUC 0.52 vs. 0.86 mu g ml-1 h). CONCLUSIONS The pharmacokinetic interaction between ABZ and PZQ in healthy volunteers was demonstrated by the observation of increased plasma concentrations of ASON, both ASOX enantiomers and (-)-(R)-PZQ. Clinically, the combination of ABZ and PZQ may improve the therapeutic efficacy as a consequence of higher concentration of both active drugs. On the other hand, the magnitude of this elevation may represent an increased risk of side effects, requiring, certainly, reduction of the dosage. However, further studies are necessary to evaluate the efficacy and safety of this combination.

Evaluation of lignin contents in tropical forages using different analytical methods and their correlations with degradation of insoluble fiber

We compared the lignin contents of tropical forages by different analytical methods and evaluated their correlations with parameters related to the degradation of neutral detergent fiber (NDF). The lignin content was evaluated by five methods: cellulose solubilization in sulfuric acid [Lignin (sa)], oxidation with potassium permanganate [Lignin (pm)], the Klason lignin method (KL), solubilization in acetyl bromide from acid detergent fiber (ABLadf) and solubilization in acetyl bromide from the cell wall (ABLcw). Samples from ten grasses and ten legumes were used. The lignin content values obtained by gravimetric methods were also corrected for protein contamination, and the corrected values were referred to as Lignin (sa)p, Lignin (pm)p and KLp. The indigestible fraction of NDF (iNDF), the discrete lag (LAG) and the fractional rate of degradation (kd) of NDF were estimated using an in vitro assay. Correcting for protein resulted in reductions (P < 0.05) in the lignin contents as measured by the Lignin (sa), Lignin (pm) and, especially, the KL methods. There was an interaction (P < 0.05) of analytical method and forage group for lignin content. In general, LKp method provided the higher (P < 0.05) lignin contents. The estimates of lignin content obtained by the Lignin (sa)p, Lignin (pm)p and LKp methods were associated (P > 0.05) with all of the NDF degradation parameters. However, the strongest correlation coefficients for all methods evaluated were obtained with Lignin (pm)p and KLp. The lignin content estimated by the ABLcw method did not correlate (P > 0.05) with any parameters of NDF degradation. There was a correlation (P < 0.05) between the lignin content estimated by the ABLadf method and iNDF content. Nonetheless, this correlation was weaker than those found with gravimetric methods. From these results, we concluded that the gravimetric methods produce residues that are contaminated by nitrogenous compounds. Adjustment for these contaminants is suggested, particularly for the KL method, to express lignin content with greater accuracy. The relationships between lignin content measurements and NDF degradation parameters can be better determined using KLp and Lignin (pm)p methods. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of two indices of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) abundance in an arid environment

The suitability of spotlight counts to index red fox abundance was assessed in an arid environment through a comparison with a scat deposition index (active attractant). In most cases there was a high degree of correlation between the two indices, suggesting that the spotlight counts were accurately documenting fluctuations in population size. However, the precision of the spotlight index was often low (c.v. = 0.07-0.46), suggesting that the technique may not allow the statistical detection of small changes in abundance. During periods when there was an influx of new individuals into the population, the seasonal scat index displayed a three-month time lag in documenting abundance while foxes accustomed themselves to the presence of the regular food supply. The level of precision of the scat index was also found to be relatively low (c.v. = 0.21-0.48). Nevertheless, further refinements of this technique may produce a suitable measure of fox abundance.

Time of treatment influences the appearance of drug-resistant parasites in Plasmodium falciparum infections

A deterministic mathematical model which predicts the probability of developing a new drug-resistant parasite population within the human host is reported, The model incorporates the host's specific antibody response to PfEMP1, and also investigates the influence of chemotherapy on the probability of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population within the host. Results indicate that early, treatment, and a high antibody threshold coupled with a long lag time between antibody stimulation and activity, are risk factors which increase the likelihood of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population. High parasite mutation rates and fast PfEMP1 var gene switching are also identified as risk factors. The model output allows the relative importance of the various risk factors as well as the relationships between them to be established, thereby increasing the understanding of the conditions which favour the development of a new drug-resistant parasite population.

Exposure to automotive pollution increases plasma susceptibility to oxidation

Low-density lipoprotein oxidation is implicated in the development of atherosclerosis. Plasma susceptibility to oxidation may be used as a marker of low-density lipoprotein oxidation and thus predict atherosclerotic risk. In this study the authors investigated the relationship between plasma susceptibility to oxidation and exposure to automotive pollution in a group of automobile mechanics (n = 16) exposed to high levels of automotive pollution, vs. matched controls (n = 13). The authors induced plasma oxidation by a free radical initiator and they determined susceptibility to oxidation by (1) change in absorbance at 234 nm, (2) lag time to conjugated diene formation, and (3) linear slope of the oxidation curve. Mechanics had significantly higher values (mean standard error) for change in absorbance (1.60 +/- 0.05 vs. 1.36 +/- 0.05; p < .002), and slope (1.6 x 10(-3) +/- 0.1 x 10(-3) vs. 1.3 x 10(-3) +/- 0.1 x 10(-3); p < .001), compared with controls. These results indicate that regular exposure to automotive pollutants increases plasma susceptibility to oxidation and may, in the long term, increase the risk of developing atherosclerosis.